Wk.4 - Melbourne's Soul Survivor

==AUSTRALIAN OPEN CHAMPS==
S: Serena Williams d. Lindsay Davenport
D: Kuznetsova/Molik d. Davenport/Morariu
M: Stosur/Draper d. Huber/Ullyett
GS: Victoria Azarenka d. Agnes Szavay
GD: Azarenka/Erakovic d. Frankova/Szavay


The lady has soul. Serena Williams didn't always outplay her seven opponents at the Australian Open, but she managed to do so when it mattered the most.

Nadia Petrova had a real shot at an upset in the 4th Round, but Williams pushed through a level of play that she lamented once the match was over. In the semis, Maria Sharapova served for the match at 5-4 in the 2nd set and held two match points. Williams erased them. In the 3rd, Sharapova was off form seemingly every other (grunt-less, interestingly) game but still gained an advantage and served again at 5-4 and held a third match point. Serena wasn't going to let her celebrate after the third straight match against her, though.

Then, in the final, Lindsay Davenport got off to a quick start as Williams injured her rib and had to make an early call for a trainer. But Serena wasn't to be denied the two things she came to Australia to win... her seventh slam title, and a small part of her old reputation back. Unlike at the conclusion of her similarly single-minded trip to Los Angeles last November, things worked out for her this time.

Williams hasn't returned to her "Serena Slam" form of old, but she's at least closer than she's been in quite a while. A little extra (heart &) soul has a tendency to do that, I guess. A few more months like this and Williams could head into SW19 with her fearsome former aura fully restored. If Serena's body can just stay together, 2005's race for #1 is about to become downright staggering.

==PLAYER AWARDS (4th Rd-Final)==

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Serena Williams
...she was mostly outplayed by Sharapova in the SF, but her big point prowess pulled off the rare feat of putting the 17-year old in her place. Come on, who isn't already panting for Serena vs. the Supernova, Part V?
-----------------------------
RISER: Alicia Molik
...the Aussie Steamer continues to steam her way up the rankings, having powered past Venus Williams in the 4th Round and nearly upsetting Davenport in the QF (9-7 in the 3rd!) to finally restore a Down Under presence in the WTA Top 10. Oh, and she won the Australian Doubles title with Svetlana Kuznetsova, too.
----------------------------
SURPRISE: Nathalie Dechy
...the #19-seeded French Pastry earned her Miss Opportunity tag by blowing past Anastasia Myskina and Patty Schnyder to advance to her first slam SF. But will she remember that, or the big lead she blew in that SF against Davenport?
----------------------------
VETERAN: Lindsay Davenport
...the 28-year old held onto her #1 ranking despite losing in the final to Serena. She was RU in the Doubles with Corina Morariu, too.
----------------------------
FRESH FACE: Victoria Azarenka
...the 15-year old #1 seed from Belarus pulled the Girls sweep by winning both the Aussie singles (over Agnes Szavay) and doubles (with New Zealand's Marina Erakovic) titles.
----------------------------
DOWN: Venus Williams & Amelie Mauresmo
...Serena's return to the slam victory stand will serve to either inspire Venus, or remind her once again that her sister's career is simply going to far outshine her's. And what can you say for Mauresmo? Her Gambit failed as she didn't play a tuneup in order to be healthy for Melbourne, but STILL managed to be dogged by an injury before finally going out rather meekly to Serena in the QF.

==MATCHES==

1.SF - S.Williams d. Sharapova
...2-6/7-5/8-6. Could it have been the heat that took the grunts out of Sharapova's swings so often in the 3rd set? The Supernova was never fully in command of her game in Melbourne, and it finally caught up with her when she met a player with enough heart and soul to make her pay for it.
----------------------------
2.Final - S.Williams d. Davenport
...2-6/6-3/6-0. Davenport's failure to convert six break points at 2-2 in the 2nd set proved to be the straw that broke the #1's back. Serena won her service game, then 9 of the remaining 10 games in the match.
----------------------------
3.4th Rd - Schnyder d. Dementieva
...6-7/7-6/6-2. Dementieva led this match 7-6/4-0, then Punch-Drunk made her first cameo appearance of the 2005 season.
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4.SF - Davenport d. Dechy
...2-6/7-6/6-4. Dechy's dream slam could have/should have been even better, as she held 4-1 and 5-4 leads in the 2nd set TB.
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5.4th Rd - Molik d. V.Williams
...7-5/7-6. Never doubt how important an Olympic Bronze medal can be. Ever since she won her's, Molik's been climbing the WTA ladder with the skill of a firefighter.
----------------------------
6.QF - Davenport d. Molik
...6-4/4-6/9-7. One more rung up, and Alicia might start winning these.
----------------------------
7.QF - S.Williams d. Mauresmo
...6-2/6-2. The best laid plans of mice...and Amelie.
----------------------------
8.4th Rd - Dechy d. Myskina
...6-4/6-2. Errors-galore, again. The Czarina's game is sometimes as schizophrenic as her moods.
----------------------------
9.QF - Sharapova d. Kuznetsova
...4-6/6-2/6-2. The Supernova was the last Russian standing after she stamped down the Contessova.
----------------------------
10.Doubles F - Kuznetsova/Molik d. Davenport/Morariu
...well, I was right about Kuznetsova winning a title in Melbourne. It's just that it was in doubles, not singles. Oh, well. Maybe that's enough to reverse the (you know what).
----------------------------
HM-Mixed F - Stosur/Draper d. Huber/Ullyett
...Sammy just couldn't leave home without reminding everyone that she wishes the WTA would move the ENTIRE tour Down Under for 2006.


==LINK OF THE WEEK==

Wondering who the next potential worldwide poster girl will be? Have no fear, Nicole Vaidisova is here. Remember, be careful now, she's still only 15.


==JANUARY AWARDS==

**PLAYERS OF THE MONTH**
1.Serena Williams
2.Alicia Molik
3.Samantha Stosur
4.Lindsay Davenport
5.Jie Zheng

RISER: Alicia Molik
SURPRISE: Samantha Stosur
VETERAN: Lindsay Davenport
FRESH FACE: Ana Ivanovic
DOWN: Vera Zvonareva

-TOP PERFORMANCE-
Samantha Stosur's extended run in her own back yard. In Australia, she made singles finals in Gold Coast and Sydney, won a doubles title in Sydney, then took her first slam crown in the Australian Open mixed.

-MATCH OF THE MONTH-
Aust.SF - S.Williams d. Sharapova
...2-6/7-5/8-6. Sharapova served at 5-4 in both the 2nd and 3rd, and held three match points.

-CHOKE OF THE MONTH-
Aust.1r - Douchevina d. Craybas
...the American veteran led 6-3/5-1 and blew two match points against the Russian teen, who followed up with a big upset of Vera Zvonareva.

-COMEBACK OF THE MONTH-
Serena Williams in Melbourne. She stayed one step ahead of Russians & teenagers (even when they were one in the same), match points & injuries, and then a top-ranked vet to take the first step in regaining her WTA throne (slam #7, as the #7-seed, pushed her ranking up to #2 in the world).

-BREAKOUT OF THE MONTH-
Alicia Molik gained her first Top 10 ranking after winning Sydney and nearly reaching the Oz SF.

-UPSET OF THE MONTH-
Sydney 1r - Peng d. Myskina 6-1/6-3

-NEWSMAKERS-
Svetlana Kuznetsova (positively)
Barbara Schett (so long, farewell)
Jennifer Capriati (shoulder surgery)
Jelena Dokic (tabloid rumor queen)
Jie Zheng (2nd Chinese champ)

-UNLIKELIEST MATCH-
Canberra F - Ana Ivanovic(Q) d. Melinda Czink(LL)
...the Serbian teen had already beaten Czink in qualifying earlier in the week.

-MOST LIKELY TO APPEAR IN THE TENNISRULZ AWARDS-
Claude Eerdekens, Belgian sports minister. Sometimes, it's better to keep your mouth shut. Even Karatantcheva's learned that lesson, and she's only 15. Claude is a bit older.

============================
============================

==LISTS==

**SERENA vs. THE SHARAPOVA==
04 Miami 4r - Williams 6-4/6-3
04 Wimbledon F - Sharapova 6-1/6-4
04 WTA Chsp F - Sharapova 4-6/6-2/6-4
05 Australian SF - Williams 2-6/7-5/8-6

============================
============================

==WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS==

...now, come join me on my quest for the perfect prediction season. 0-for-64 is still within reach (I'm 1/8 of the way there). Meanwhile, Cantin gets his one and only pick of the season right in Melbourne (can you hear me rolling my eyes?).

TOKYO (TPP), JAPAN (CI-TIER I)
04 F: Davenport d. Maleeva
05 TOP: Davenport/Sharapova ============================
FINAL: Sharapova d. Kuznetsova

...Davenport is the #1 seed as she tries to win this event for the third straight year, so she could end up in the final. I'll stick with the Contessova until she flunks another drug test, though. But, in the final, I'm going with Sharapova. She was never fully in tune in Melbourne, losing sets to the likes of Lindsay Lee-Waters to set the stage for a rare trumping on big points in the SF. Here's to thinking she'll rebound with another Supernovian performance and claim her first Tier I title.

PATTAYA, THAILAND (HO-Tier IV)
03 F: Nagnova d. Kurhajcova
04: not held
05 TOP: Zvonareva/Bartoli ============================
FINAL: Groenefeld d. Zvonareva

...the stage is set here for Vera the Almost to get herself straight, but she might not be ready quite yet. So, don't be surprised if it's Domachowska or someone else in the final besides the Russian.

All for now.

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Wk.3 - Half-Way Down Under

Tennisrulz.com WTA BACKSPIN January 22, 2005 HALF-WAY DOWN UNDER (the Aussie Open 1r-3r) by Todd Spiker A quick recap of the early rounds of Oz: ==FIRST SEEDS TO FALL== ...my preview's top potential 1st Round upset of a #16-32 seed (Akiko Morigami over #26 Daniela Hantuchova) didn't happen, but my second one did as #32 Iveta Benesova was taken down by Ana Ivanovic. In the Top 16 seeds, my top choice of #16 Ai Sugiyama losing to Martina Sucha lived up (or down) to its billing as the Japanese vet was the first women's seed bounced from the tournament on Monday. Interestingly, no women's seeds lost in the second day of 1st Round action on Tuesday. ==UPSET QUEENS== ...this is getting ridiculous. While some fine individual early-round performances included some nice upsets (by Abigail Spears and Elena Baltacha, for example), only one country put together enough of them to collectively have its contingent win this slam's "Upset Queens" crown. Yes, of course, it was the Russians. The Horde, as a group, went 14-0 in 1st Round matches (7 still remain in the Final 16), and the multiple upsets by multiple players give them the edge. Amongst the wins: *1st Round* Linetskaya def. Kurhajcova Kirilenko def. Kapros Douchevina def. Craybas Safina def. Zheng Chakvetadze def. Parra-Santonja Jidkova def. Ruano-Pascual *2nd Round* Linetskaya def. Sucha Douchevina def. #9 Zvonareva Panova def. #23 Jankovic *3rd Round* Linetskaya def. #21 Frazier Douchevina def. Groenefeld ==MATCHES THAT CHANGED THE EVENT== ...with so many top seeds still playing, the only matches that stand out are the ones that ALMOST saw title contenders go down. #2 Amelie Mauresmo's survival (from being a set down) in her 2nd Round match with Dinara Safina qualifies here. In the more traditional sense of "draw-changing" victories, I suppose Abigail Spears' 2nd Round upset of #20 Tatiana Golovin removed the French Pastry as a dark horse SF pick. And Vera Douchevina's defeat of #9 Vera Zvonareva in the 2nd Round removed the best player that stood between Svetlana Kuznetsova and a massive QF matchup with Maria Sharapova. ==MISS OPPORTUNITY?== ...again, with so many top seeds still around (12 of the Top 13 made the 4r), there's been very little opportunity for someone to move into a vacated section of the draw. The contenders, for now, would seem to be Karolina Sprem (doing well without great expectations) and Alicia Molik (doing well with great expectations), or maybe Patty Schnyder as she tries to match her 2004 Melbourne SF result. ==================================== ==================================== **EARLY-ROUND PLAYERS OF THE WEEK** PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Svetlana Kuznetsova ...no other player has been under such a microscope after Belgian sports minister Claude Eerdekens announced her positive out-of-competition drug test for ephedrine despite the questionable nature of the test's validity (or even whether a positive result for an ingredient in cold medication at an exhibition is even a sanctionable offense). Still, the Contessova has handled the situation well. She buzzed through her first two opponents before finally suffering an abbreviated bad patch during the 2nd set of her straights sets win over Diaz-Oliva in the 3rd. And while Elena Dementieva, also wrongly implicated along with Nathalie Dechy in the controversy when early reports only mentioned that ONE of the three had tested positive, might not be on good terms with Kuznetsova at the moment, other players have jumped to her defense, including Anastasia Myskina and the Contessova's doubles partner, Alicia Molik. To read Molik's reaction to Kuznetsova's plight, click on this link: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2005-01-18/200501181106041046301.html ===================================== RISER: Alicia Molik ...Molik is the best Aussie hope in years, and so far things have gone fine. Along with Dementieva, she's one of the few women yet to taste defeat in 2005 (11-0 overall). Now, she gets her shot at Venus, and then maybe Davenport. ===================================== SURPRISES: Abigail Spears & Elena Baltacha ...American Spears upset Meghann Shaughnessy and Tatiana Golovin; while Brit Baltacha knocked out Katarina Srebotnik and Stephanie Cohen Aloro. ===================================== VETERANS: Silvia Farina Elia & Barbara Schett ...Farina Elia, 32, was the second-oldest player in the main draw (Conchita Martinez beat her by 11 days), but she's still standing in the Round of 16. Schett, meanwhile, edged past Tiffany Welford in three sets in the 1st Round to set up her WTA singles career-ending 2nd Round match against Daniela Hantuchova. When it was over, the 28-year old Austrian walked away not with the career resume she'd have hoped for, but a 14-year long one (with 3 WTA titles, and 1 ITF) she can still be proud to claim. ===================================== FRESH FACES: Vera Douchevina & Evgenia Linetskaya ...two more Russians, both older than Sharapova at 18 years of age, are making their marks in a grand slam. Douchevina claimed the biggest women's early-round upset with a win over #9 Zvonareva (and that was after a remarkable 1st Round comeback -- see below), while Linetskaya knocked out Martina Sucha and Amy Frazier to set up a 4th Round match with Amelie Mauresmo. ====================================== DOWN: Vera Zvonareva ...Vera the Almost's slow pre-Melbourne start was a hint of what was about to happen. ==LINK OF THE WEEK== Lindsay Davenport talks about the Fortune Cookies: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12001834%255E2722,00.html ==TOP 1r-3r MATCHES== 1.1r - Douchevina d. Craybas ...3-6/7-6/6-4. Douchevina came back from a 3-6/1-5 -- and two MPs -- deficit. ------------------------------------- 2.3r - Dementieva d. Hantuchova ...7-5/5-7/6-4. A good start for Wonder Girl. ------------------------------------- 3.2r - Douchevina d. Zvonareva ...6-3/6-3. Make way for another one! ------------------------------------- 4.1r - Sharapova d. Karatantcheva ...6-3/6-1. The Supernova didn't need any additional posterior padding for this one. ------------------------------------- 5.2r - Panova d. Jankovic ...3-6/6-4/6-2. Panova lasted longer than fellow Russian Zvonareva. Jankovic didn't last as long as fellow Serb Ana Ivanovic. ------------------------------------- HM-1r - Mauresmo d. Stosur ...6-2/6-3. Will we hear from Sammy again this season? ===================================== ===================================== ==LISTS== **ROUND OF 16 STATS** --BY COUNTRY-- 7...Russia 3...USA 2...France 1...Australia 1...Croatia 1...Italy 1...Switzerland --BY RANK-- #1 Lindsay Davenport #2 Amelie Mauresmo #3 Anastasia Myskina #4 Maria Sharapova #5 Svetlana Kuznetsova #6 Elena Dementieva #7 Serena Williams #9 Venus Williams #12 Alicia Molik #13 Nadia Petrova #14 Patty Schnyder #18 Karolina Sprem #19 Silvia Farina Elia #25 Nathalie Dechy #65 Vera Douchevina #93 Evgenia Linetskaya --OLDEST PLAYERS IN 4th RD.-- 32...Silvia Farina Elia 28...Lindsay Davenport 25...Amelie Mauresmo --YOUNGEST PLAYERS IN 4th RD.-- 17...Maria Sharapova 18...Vera Douchevina 18...Evgenia Linetskaya All for now.

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Wk.2 - The Waltzing Mathilda Oz Preview

Tennisrulz.com WTA BACKSPIN January 15, 2005 THE WALTZING MATHILDA PREVIEW: Curse vs. Destiny? by Todd Spiker I'll switch around and put the week's awards first, then end things with the Australian Open preview. ==WEEK 2 CHAMPIONS== SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA (II-HO) S: Alicia Molik d. Samantha Stosur 6-7/6-4/7-5 D: Stewart/Stosur d. Dementieva/Sugiyama (w/o) ===================================== HOBART, AUSTRALIA (V-HO) S: Jie Zheng d. Gisela Dulko 6-2/6-0 D: Yan/Zheng d. Medina-Garrigues/Safina ===================================== CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA (V-HO) S: Ana Ivanovic d. Melinda Czink 7-5/6-1 D: Garbin/Krizan d. G.Navratilova/Pastikova ===================================== AUSTRALIAN OPEN QUALIFYING Qualifiers: Sesil Karatantcheva, Michaella Kraijicek, Jessica Kirkland, Nan-Nan Liu, Angela Haynes, Ting Li, Elena Baltacha, Zuzana Ondraskova, Zsofia Gubacsi, Anastasia Yakimova, Meilen Tu, Aiko Nakamura ==PLAYER AWARDS== PLAYERS OF THE WEEK: Alicia Molik & Jie Zheng ...Molik won her fifth career title in taking the all-Aussie Sydney battle with Samantha Stosur. So far, she's won all eight of her matches in '05 and is hoping that she'll be able to challenge to become the first Aussie women's champ in Melbourne since 1978 (Chris O'Neil). Zheng, world #82, became the second of the Chinese women to claim a WTA singles title. She won Hobart, knocking off Na Li -- the first Chinese champ, in '04-- in the SF. She also took the doubles with fellow Cookie Zi Yan. ===================================== RISERS: Samantha Stosur & Gisela Dulko ...Stosur got two walkovers in the Sydney QF/SF to get to her second straight 2005 singles final, but her win over Tatiana Golovin and tight three-setter against Molik in the final proved that luck wasn't involved (she won the doubles, too). Her Melbourne reward? Amelie Mauresmo in the 1st Round. Dulko was 0-4 in Hopman Cup singles, but she didn't let it get her down. In Hobart, the 19-year old (she turns 20 on January 30) Argentine made it all the way to her first WTA singles final before finally wiping out against Zheng. The player best known for defeating Martina Navratilova twice in grand slam matches last year, is now poised to enter the Top 30 for the first time. ===================================== SURPRISE: Melinda Czink & Yuliana Fedak ...Czink's week in Canberra probably even surprised her. First, she lost in the qualifying final to Ana Ivanovic. But when Katarina Srebotnik pulled out of the main draw, "lucky loser" Czink, world #128, got a second chance. She almost pulled off a miracle, getting all the way to the final before finally losing... again, to Ivanovic. Ukrainian Fedak, 21, beat a string of veterans (Pratt, Tanasugarn, Farina Elia) en route to a SF in the same Canberra event. ===================================== VETERAN: Kveta Peschke ...with Lindsay Davenport pulling out of a QF match with bronchitis, there weren't many great exploits by vets this week. So the elder stateswoman of the Czech contingent, 29-year old Peschke, gets the nod for wins over Sucha and Medina-Garrigues along her path to the Hobart QF. She'll face off against Anastasia Myskina in the 1st Round in Melbourne. ===================================== FRESH FACES: Ana Ivanovic & Shuai Peng ...17-year old Serb Ivanovic qualified in Canberra and then took her momentum all the way to her first WTA title (knocking off Czink twice along the way). Ranked #100, and a star on the ITF tour in '04 with a 34-match winning streak, Ivanovic becomes the first player to check off one of the Backspin Quick Pick Predictions (I picked her to win her first title). Thanks, Ana... at this point, I need all the help I can get (more on that later). 19-year old Cookie Peng was this week's Russian slayer, as the Sydney qualifer took out both Myskina and Nadia Petrova on the way to the SF. She could face Venus Williams next in the Australian 2nd Round. ===================================== DOWN: Anatasia Myskina ...the Czarina has bounced back from worse things than her opening match loss to Peng in Sydney (does Chakvetadze at Wimbledon ring a bell, or maybe JHH in Athens?). Still, tossing in a 6-winner/33-unforced error effort less than a week before a slam can't do wonders for her confidence, can it? ==LINK OF THE WEEK== Read about Sesil Karatantcheva, the "devilish" Australian Open qualifier who'll finally get another chance to "kick (the Supernova's) ass off" in the 1st Round: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/tennis/sfl-brickten09jan09,0,6072116.column?coll=sfla-sports-tennis ==KUZNETSOVA CURSE/TENNISRULZ JINX UPDATE== ...the Contessova didn't play last week, but she'll open up her Aussie Open campaign (as the #5 seed) against American qualifier Jessica Kirkland. So, we'll see if the Jinx has legs. The Curse certainly does. My champion predictions are currently riding an 0-for-7 slide, as I pulled another 0-fer this past week (0-3). Hmmm... Head Honcho Cantin says he thinks the blame should be shared. But, come on, WE know who the REAL culprit is, right? Afterall, this type of thing didn't happen until he took me up on the offer to include his Top 10 picks in the Backspin season preview. Coincidence? You be the judge. I'm just kidding, of course... well, kind of. ==MATCHES== 1.Syd F - Molik d. Stosur ...6-7/6-4/7-5. After back-to-back walkovers, Stosur was shocked to learn she'd actually have to PLAY for the title. ===================================== 2.Canb F - Ivanovic d. Czink ...7-5/6-1. Czink failed to become the first LL to win a WTA title since Kay McDaniel in Atlanta in 1980. "Who?," you ask? Exactly. ===================================== 3.Hob F - Zheng d. Dulko ...6-2/6-0. Shuai Peng, Zi Yan, Ting Li, Nan-Nan Liu and Tian Tian Sun... the pressure has now shifted to your collective shoulders. ===================================== 4.Syd 2r - Peng d. Myskina ...6-1/6-3. 33 unforced errors? Channeling Marat, are we, Anastasia? ===================================== 5.Syd QF - Peng d. Petrova ...6-3/4-2 ret. One Russian is the start of a trend. Two is a jinx. Oh, wait... that's something else. Umm, let me see... oh, I know. Bravo, Shuai! ===================================== 6.Syd 1r - Daniilidou d. Martinez ...3-6/6-4/6-4. A return to the land of the living... for both of them. ===================================== 7.Syd 2r - Zuluaga d. Zvonareva ...7-6/6-3. Vera the Almost hasn't even lived up to her nickname so far in 2005. ===================================== 8.Hob SF - Zheng d. Na Li ...3-6/6-4/6-0. Looks like Zheng learned something about finishing off opponents after crashing out of Athens after holding a big lead against Sugiyama. ===================================== 9.Hob 2r - Vaidisova d. Safina ...6-1/4-6/6-3. Just a little update on Darth's progress. She has a good shot to get to the 3rd Round in Melbourne and face Davenport. ===================================== 10.Hob 1r - Casey Dellaqua d. Jidkova ...7-5/6-4. If it's January, you can count on a nice win by an Aussie wild card. ===================================== HM-Syd Doub.1r - Huber/McShea d. Hantuchova/Navratilova ...6-3/6-4. Not a great start for the Wonder Girl/Wonder Woman team. ==LISTS== **2005 WTA SINGLES FINALISTS** Average Rank of Champions: #59 Average Rank of Runners-Up: #65 Current #59 (Jan.10): Samantha Stosur Current #65 (Jan.10): Katarina Srebotnik **2005 FINALISTS BY COUNTRY** 3...Australia (1 win) 1...Switzerland, Slovenia, China, Serbia (each with 1 win) 1...Japan, Argentina, Hungary (0 wins) **MOST SINGLES TITLES - 2004/05* 7...Davenport (7/0) 5...Mauresmo (5/0) 5...Sharapova (5/0) 5...Henin-Hardenne (5/0) 4...Molik (3/1) ===================================== ===================================== ===================================== ==WALTZING MATHILDA PREVIEW== Holy dooley! It's grand slam time already? Well, as you'll see, I've got my trusty Aussie slang dictionary by my side, so if any of you "Lucky Country" natives spot a linguistic mistake you can just blame Pierre (sorry, force of habit). In Austra-logical order... ==DAYS 1-4== =FIRST SEED OUT?= It's always a true contest to see which seeded Sheila will be the first to be up a gum tree. Most likely to go on walkabout in the first two days, in order of probability: (Seeds #17-32) #32 Benesova (vs.Ivanovic) #26 Hantuchova (vs.Morigami) #27 Smashnova (vs.Sanchez-Lorenzo) #30 Pennetta (vs.Mandula) (Seeds #1-16) #11 Petrova (vs.Razzano) #16 Sugiyama (vs.Sucha) #9 Zvonareva (vs.Liu) #8 V.Williams (vs.Daniilidou) #12 Schnyder (vs.Fedak) #2 Mauresmo (vs.Stosur) #3 Myskina (vs.Peschke) #4 Sharapova (vs.Karatantcheva) ===================================== =UPSET QUEENS= So, who'll claim the title as the fair dinkum "Upset Queens" of the early days of Melbourne action? I'll give it a burl with some possibilities: THE SERBS: Ivanovic vs. Benesova, Mamic vs. Likhovtseva THE SHEILAS: Pratt vs. Jankovic, Adamczak vs. Sprem, Stosur vs. Mauresmo THE COOKIES: Liu vs. Zvonareva, Zheng vs. Safina, Peng vs. V.Williams (2r), Na Li vs. Sharapova (3r) THE PASTRIES: Razzano vs. Petrova, Cohen Aloro vs. Pierce THE MAIDENS: Peschke vs. Myskina, Vaidisova vs. Davenport (3r), Koukalova vs. Raymond (2r) ===================================== =STOP-THE-PRESSES EARLY MATCHUPS= A few potential corkers: 1st Rd. - Sharapova vs. Karatantcheva 1st Rd. - Mauresmo vs. Stosur 2nd Rd. - V.Williams vs. Peng 2nd Rd. - Dementieva vs. Chakvetadze 2nd Rd. - Zvonareva vs. Douchevina 2nd Rd. - Sugiyama vs. Linetskaya 2nd Rd. - Sprem vs. Weingartner ===================================== ==DAYS 5-6== =MATCHES THAT COULD CHANGE THE TOURNAMENTS= Things generally are fairly quiet in the early days, but every once in a while a top seed faces an underdog who becomes a walloper. So, av-a-go-yer-mug, and one of these players could become a first week headliner, and everything that follows their big moment could be entirely different: 1st Rd. - Karatantcheva d. Sharapova? 1st Rd. - Kirkland d. Kuznetsova? 1st Rd. - Martinez d. Davenport? 1st Rd. - Stosur d. Mauresmo? 2nd Rd. - Safina/Zheng d. Mauresmo? 2nd Rd. - Chakvetadze d. Dementieva? 3rd Rd. - Vaidisova d. Davenport? 3rd Rd. - Ivanovic/Kirilenko d. Mauresmo? 3rd Rd. - Na Li d. Sharapova? 3rd Rd. - Hantuchova d. Dementieva? ===================================== ==DAYS 7-10== =MISS OPPORTUNITY IS...?= Who'll take advantage of the early exits of some of the favorites to achieve their career's greatest grand slam success? A few potential Miss O's: Alicia Molik: the Aussies would surely crack a fat if the #10-seed feeds off an unhealthy Davenport's inability to last long in the scorching heat. Tatiana Golovin: if Dementieva and/or Myskina falter, the Frussian Pastry could make the SF...or better. Samantha Stosur: it's up to her, but she'd have to take a huge bite out of the draw with an upset of Mauresmo in the 1st Round. But when Sammy baby is lucky enough to get two straight walkovers to reach a final last week, something must be going her way. Sesil Karatancheva: if she pulls off the big upset of the Supernova, a new star will officially be born. ===================================== ==DAYS 11-13== =OZ SEMIFINAL/FINAL STATS= ...the #1-seed has won the last three Australian Opens. #1 has faced #2 in the final the last two years. ...in 2004, the SF included #22 and #32-seeded players ...the #1-seed has reached the final for five straight years, and eight of the last ten ...the last three slam champs of '04 were seeded #6, #13 and #9. The average seed of the finalists in the last three slams was #7. ===================================== LAST SEPPO STANDING?: you'd be tempted to say #1 Davenport, but Serena Williams' draw is so favorable it's hard to pick against her. F.I.G.J.A.M. WITH THE BEST SHOT AT TAKING THE TITLE: Serena, again ===================================== =ALTERNATE UNIVERSE SEMIFINALS= Vaidisova/Golovin/Sharapova/Kirilenko ...the "Girls Night Out" version of Oz, with the ankle-biters inheriting the earth. Of course, the chances of that combo happening isn't worth a zack. =DREAM FINALS= ...the matchups that stand out like dog's balls Sharapova vs. Dementieva or Myskina (Supernova vs. Spartak) Molik vs. Sharapova (the only women to ever beat the Supernova in a pro singles final) Serena vs. Venus (for old time's sake) Kuznetsova vs. Myskina (a new Horde combination) Molik vs. Stosur (for the Aussies, at least) ===================================== =MAURESMO'S GRAND SLAM GAMBIT= ...so, will Amelie be apples? If so, she'd better be on her game early (and she's yet to even play in' 05), as Stosur comes up first. Next would be either Zheng or Safina, then maybe Ivanovic or Kirilenko. The QF? Probably, Serena. And only then would she get the chance to bail up against one of the big-time Russians. And she'd STILL need another win to take the title after that. Hmmm, she'll have a better shot at Wimbledon. ===================================== ==BACKSPIN OZ PICKS== =4th Rd.= #1 Davenport d. Weingartner #10 Molik d. #8 V.Williams #3 Myskina d. #14 Schiavone #6 Dementieva d. #12 Schnyder #5 Kuznetsova d. #17 Zuluaga #4 Sharapova d. #15 Farina Elia #7 S.Williams d. #25 Maleeva #2 Mauresmo d. #21 Frazier =Quarters= #10 Molik d. #1 Davenport #6 Dementieva d. #3 Myskina #5 Kuznetsova d. #4 Sharapova #7 S.Williams d. #2 Mauresmo =Semis= #6 Dementieva d. #10 Molik #5 Kuznetsova d. #7 S.Williams Okay, now for the moment of truth. Here's where I decide whether to play chicken with the Kuznetsova Curse/Tennisrulz Jinx. Do I stick with the Contessova and risk the end of the Curse being beyond the black stump if she loses? Or do I accept the role of the cowardly drongo and play mind games with fate, thinking that picking against her will turn back the #1-ranking jinx Cantin & I put on Kuznetsova a few weeks ago? Come on, now. What do you THINK I'm going to do? If Kuznetsova rages on to this point, I couldn't help playing the odds that she'll be the one leaving Melbourne grinning like a shot fox. So, I'll make it official: =FINAL= #5 Kuznetsova def. #6 Dementieva I may end up mad as a cat snake two weeks from now, but so be it. If that's the case... poor, Contessova. Somebody might need to be sacrificed to get the tennis gods back on her side (hmmm... considering Serena's comments about virginity this past week, maybe she'll volunteer for the volcano leap? Just tossin' it out there.). Curse, or destiny. Which will win out? Stay tuned. Hooroo (that's Aussie for "all for now," as far as I can tell from my trusty little handbook... of course, if I'm wrong... well, you know the drill).

All for now.
====================

Pierre Cantin's Oz preview can be found on Tennisrulz.

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Wk.1 - Act 1, Scene 1

The '05 production is underway, and hoping for a long and successful run (say, eleven months?).

Week 1 headlines, naturally, were often centered around the Russians, who were on both the good and bad sides of some potentially telling results a week before main draw play begins in Melbourne. Here's Backspin's 10 topics of discussion:

#1. Mary Pierce is injured. So is Nicole Pratt. Nadia Petrova pulled out of her Gold Coast QF. Maria Sharapova backed out of Hong Kong in mid-event. Jennifer Capriati pulled out of Sydney. Justine Henin-Hardenne and Kim Clijsters are now officially out of Melbourne. Sound familiar? Maybe Serena had the right idea about just playing doubles last week in China.
=====================================
#2. Speaking of, it's time for Backspin's "Link of the Week." W hile it's hardly fulfilling Prediction #5 on the Quick Picks List, it's fairly obvious that Serena prefers to be the center of attention away from the court, as well. Imagine if she wore what she's wearing in those pics on Arthur Ashe Court this August... the USTA might have to have a few medics on hand to treat all the whiplashed necks inside the stadium.
=====================================
#3. KUZNETSOVA #1 TENNISRULZ JINX UPDATE: Any progress on the formula to lift the curse that Pierre & I put on the Contessova by both picking her #1 for 2005? Well, let's just say it's not a good sign that she got stuck in the Hong Kong round robin group that DIDN'T disintegrate with injuries, or that she blew a 4-1 3rd set lead on Venus Williams in a match that would have sent her to the exhibition final against Elena Dementieva. What have we done?
=====================================
#4. On the topic of Punch-Sober, Hong Kong exhibition champ Dementieva was the one Russian singles player who came out of Week 1 with a big grin. Czarina Myskina had seemed perched to claim the Hopman Cup with Russia having the decidedly "best" team (Myskina/Safin). She held up her end, going 3-0 in singles. But her teammate Marat put on a lawsuit-worthy performance: going 0-3 in singles, and then continuing to turn everything he touched to stone by going 0-3 in doubles with Myskina, too. Elsewhere, Vera Zvonareva went 0-2 in Hong Kong, Sharapova lost to Venus there and then withdrew, Kuznetsova blew a 4-1 3rd set lead, Petrova was injured, Likhovtseva lost to a 15-year old, and so on and so on. On the bright side, Lina Krasnoroutskaya is on her latest comeback attempt and the absence of JHH in Oz might open up at least another QF slot for one of the Horde contingent.
=====================================
#5. The "Sony Ericsson WTA Tour?" All right, if you say so. Look at it this way, even if he joins the list of people who'll likely misspell it, at least Alan Schwartz won't be able to butcher the name the next time he hands out a trophy. No, Alan, "Sonny Erickson" isn't the new umpire we've hired to replace Mariana Alves.
=====================================
#6. Hmmm, Week 1 WTA champions were Patty Schnyder and Katarina Srebotnik. Neither had won a title since 2002. Could that be good news for some of the other '02 champs who haven't won since? Such as Hantuchova, Dokic, Widjaja, Black, Mikaelian, Casanova... and Hingis and Seles?
=====================================
#7. Not much singles success for the Cookies in Week 1. Many lost in tournament qualifying, then Jie Zheng and Na Li both went out at the hands of Petrova at Gold Coast. But the doubles team of Zi Yan/Jie Zheng did defeat the very interesting doubles combo of Golovin/Safina.
=====================================
#8. SHEILAS WATCH: A few Aussies are priming themselves for Melbourne, as Alicia Molik (3-0) looked good in Perth (though Mark Philippoussis' injury pretty much crushed the chances of a home team victory), while Samantha Stosur made her first-ever WTA final at Gold Coast (losing to Schnyder).
=====================================
#9. What'll Eleni the Greek do now? Daniilidou didn't get her Auckland three-peat. She opened her last two seasons with titles, only to see her results falter the rest of the season. This year, she went out in the 1st Round.
=====================================
#10. Daniela Hantuchova was winning the Hopman in Week 1, while the Russians were preparing for Melbourne. But what of the Debutante? Yes, that was Jelena Dokic in the Serbian headlines again recently (surprise). Yawn... Damir belly-aching, the Debutante kissing a Bikic brother (which one is it? Harpo? Curly?). Does it really matter anymore? If she ever wins a few matches, it'll again be worth the effort to debate the future of the sport's fastest falling former would-be star. At this point, though, it's just as likely she'll be out of the sport a year from now as it is that she'll be back in the Top 20.
=====================================

==WEEK 1 CHAMPIONS==
GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA (II-HO)
S: Patty Schnyder def. Samantha Stosur 1-6/6-3/7-5
D: Likhovtseva/Maleeva d. Camerin/Farina Elia
============================
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND (IV-HO)
S: Katarina Srebotnik d. Shinobu Asagoe 5-7/7-5/6-4
D: Asagoe/Srebotnik d. L.Baker/Lubiani
============================
HOPMAN CUP; PERTH, AUSTRALIA (HI)
F: Slovak Republic (Hantuchova/Hrbaty) def. Argentina (Dulko/Coria) 3-0
============================
HONG KONG, CHINA (EX) (HO) F: Elena Dementieva def. Venus Williams 6-3/6-2
============================

==PLAYER AWARDS==
PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Elena Dementieva
...it could be that no one player benefitted from the first week of action more than Punch-Sober. First, she came from behind to dust off Maria Sharapova, then handled Venus Williams to take the Hong Kong exhibition title. She was a little slow starting in '04, but this type of kick-off could lead to great things in Melbourne where -- let me make the early pick now -- a Russian WILL win the title. Check back here next week to see which one I've decided on for my pick.
=====================================
RISERS: Patty Schnyder & Daniela Hantuchova
...Schnyder's Gold Coast title was her first since winning Zurich in October '02, as she warmed up to try to defend her Australian Open SF from last year. Hantuchova's been through some lean times (no pun intended) the last couple years. She blew a golden opportunity to end her '04 season with a title against a sparse field in Quebec City in November, but in '05 she's burst out of the gate by teaming with Dominik Hrbaty to win the Hopman Cup title for Slovakia. A 3-1 singles record, with wins over Shaughnessy, Dulko and Krajicek, might not propel her into a great season, but a little confidence could go a long way for a player who's recently had very little of it.
=====================================
SURPRISES: Katarina Srebotnik & Samantha Stosur
...#87 Srebotnik swept both the singles and doubles (with Asagoe, the player she defeated in the singles final) in Auckland. It was her third career WTA singles title, and first since Acapulco '02. She's already on the nomination list for 2005's Most Improved/Surprise Player. That Stosur, 20, hit high notes down under once again isn't a big surprise, but wins over Sprem (who she beat in Week 1 a year ago, en route to a Gold Coast SF), Maleeva and Farina Elia on the way to her first WTA singles final gives further rise to the question, "Why she can't carry over this success beyond the first few weeks of the season?"
=====================================
VETERAN: Maggie Maleeva
...the 29-year old Bulgarian opened her season in Gold Coast with a singles QF, and won the doubles with fellow-29er Likhovtseva. Earlier in the week, the team knocked off Navratilova/Dechy in the QF, too.
=====================================
FRESH FACES: Sesil Karatantcheva & Shahar Peer
...another award, another Bulgarian. This time it's 15-year old Karatantcheva (the newly added extra "t" is there for your protection), who qualified in Gold Coast and defeated Camerin and Likhovtsova on her way to the QF. Israeli Peer, 17, qualified in Auckland. In the main draw, she upset Morigami and Sucha before losing to eventual champ Srebotnik in the QF. By the way, both of these two girls won junior slam titles in '04... so keep an eye out for whoever wins the Girls title in Melbourne in a few weeks.
=====================================
DOWN: Karolina Sprem & Eleni Daniilidou
...Sprem is still searching for her Wimbledon encore. Maybe she'll get it before Wimbledon starts up again, but it didn't happen in Gold Coast (she lost to Stosur in the 1st Round). Daniilidou's quest for an Auckland three-past crashed and burned on the launch pad (1st Rd.-Santangelo).

==MATCHES==
1.Hong Kong RR--Dementieva d. Sharapova
...6-7/6-3/6-1. And, no, it wasn't the Czarina who threw a tennis ball onto the court in the middle of the match and unnerved the Supernova. Still, score one for the Spartaks.
=====================================
2.Hong Kong F--Demetieva d. V.Williams
...6-3/6-2. A pair of wins over Sharapova and Venus aren't bad little momentos to have in your hip pocket (mmmm...of those bright orange/red shorts again?) going into Melbourne.
=====================================
3.Hong Kong RR--V.Williams d. Kuznetsova
...5-7/6-2/7-6. Venus didn't repeat as title-holder in China, so she'll have to settle for overcoming a 1-4 3rd set deficit here in a 2+ hour match.
=====================================
4.Gold F--Schnyder d. Stosur
...1-6/6-3/7-5. So, a Swiss player wins a singles title. Think Martina H. is jealous?
=====================================
5.Auck F--Srebotnik d. Asagoe
...5-7/7-5/6-4. No, doubles partners do not share championship prize winnings when they meet in a SINGLES final.
=====================================
6.Gold 2r--Golovin d. Safina
...7-5/3-6/6-2. The Frussian Pastry's push for a Top 10 spot has begun. She made the Gold Coast SF.
=====================================
7.Gold 2r--Karatantcheva d. Likhovtseva
...6-2/0-6/7-6. Well, Sesil the Mouth finally "kicked the ass off" a Russian.
=====================================
8.Hopman Cup RR--Haas/Groenefeld d. Safin/Myskina
...7-5/1-6/0-6. After all the Fed Cup fuss, maybe the Czarina should just escape this team concept before it destroys her faith in her fellow Russians.
=====================================
9.Gold SF--Stosur d. Farina Elia
...6-4/2-6/6-1. She made the SF here last year, but only the 2nd Round in Melbourne. Look out 3rd Round, here comes Samantha!
=====================================
10.Auck 1r--Marina Erakovic d. Pelletier
...4-6/7-5/6-3. The 16-year old Croat wild card is yet another name to jot down on your "to watch" lists.
=====================================
HM--Thailand Exhibition (Chiang Mai)--Sharapova def. V.Williams
...6-4/6-3. Before Hong Kong, Sharapova DID get a nice victory when Venus double-faulted on match point. Both players' rackets were auctioned off after the match for the benefit of tsunami relief.
=====================================

==WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS==
...ouch, that 0-for-4 Week 1 prediction record hurts big-time. Maybe the Kuznetsova Jinx works both ways? (Watch your back, Pierre.)

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA (II-HO)
04 F: JHH def. Mauresmo
05 TOP: Davenport/Myskina
=========================
SF: Davenport d. Dementieva; Myskina d. Molik
FINAL: Davenport d. Myskina

...at least the Czarina will travel without her anchor (Marat) this week.

CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA (V-HO)
04 F: Suarez def. Farina Elia
05 TOP: Farina Elia/Smashnova
=============================
SF: Panova d. Ivanovic(Q); Shaughnessy d. Weingartner
FINAL: Panova d. Shaughnessy

...I have to pick a Russian. I don't have Smashnova winning here, but without her Pistolesi anchor (Mr.Pistolesi, that is) she's now free to be confused by casual fans for another new Russian girl.

HOBART, AUSTRALIA (V-HO)
04 F: Frazier d. Asagoe
05 TOP: Frazier/Dulko
========================
SF: Koukalova d. Frazier; Safina d. Sucha
FINAL: Safina d. Koukalova

...okay, make it TWO Russians. They have to make up for the Hopman blowout, right?. If the Czarina stays hot, maybe the Horde could go 3-for-3.

Next week, it's the Waltzing Mathilda Oz preview! All for now.

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2005 Intriguing Questions #1-2

Well, we're finally here. The sun is shining on the early moments of the 2005 season... and it's time to talk about the top two most intriguing questions for the next twelve months. If you're familiar with what happened in 2004, it should come as no surprise that they deal with, what else... the Russians.

#2. WHAT WILL THE RUSSIAN HORDE FOR AN ENCORE?

Here was 2004 in a nutshell: Davenport was #1, the Belgians went out, the Williamses fell down, Mauresmo was... well, Mauresmo, and into the void came the remarkable ladies from Russia. They not only filled the breach, they caused it to overflow.

The group known affectionately at Backspin as "The Horde," suddenly now breaking down into the "Spartak" and "Supernova" camps, didn't just turn potential into trophies last season, they practically hijacked the tour from June until the end of the year, feeding off each other's accomplishments like voracious piranha. First Roland Garros fell, then Wimbledon, the U.S. Open and the WTA Championships. Finally, and fittingly, even the Fed Cup was overthrown by way of Russian rackets.

==RUSSIANS IN TOP 20==
3.Anastasia Myskina
4.Maria Sharapova
5.Svetlana Kuznetsova
6.Elena Dementieva
11.Vera Zvonareva
12.Nadia Petrova
15.Elena Bovina

Overall last year, the Horde claimed 15 titles (up from 11 in '03, 6 in '02), placed four players in the Top 10, seven in the Top 20 and nine in the Top 50. The average age of the top ten-ranked Russians is just 21.9 (and that's counting the anomalous #24 Elena Likhovtseva, 29), so they're not going away anytime soon. Actually, the ranks are threatening to get even deeper and younger as teens such as Maria Kirilenko, Vera Douchevina, Anna Chakvetadze and others are on the way up. Things are close to getting so crowded that "veterans" such as Zvonareva, Petrova, Bovina and Dinara Safina (just 18 herself) risk getting lost in the "middle child" shuffle if they don't soon break through with major titles of their own. After such a saber-rattling season, the question is obvious for the Czarina & Her Court: Now what?

Well, the first task will be to take the Australian Open and complete not only an "Ex-Soviet Slam" (or, to shamelessly latch onto SI.com's Jon Wertheim's "Soviettes" nickname for the Russian women -- a "Soviette Slam") with a fourth straight slam title, but, for Backspin purposes... (drumroll, please)... a "Horde Hexad" (look it up -- it'd stand for six straight major championships, including the Tour Championships and Fed Cup). I think it'll happen, possibly with the help of one of the Russians who was left out of the slam trophy haul of last season.

As for the balance of the year, the return of a healthy JHH, a hopefully fully-engaged Williams clan and a Mauresmo focused on winning a slam of her own will make for a wonderful 11-month back-and-forth battle for supremacy. But with so many entrants in the race, the safe money will still be on the Horde.

Czarina Myskina currently holds a tenuous grip on the #1 Russian ranking. If she manages to hold off the rest of her countrywomen (namely, two) all season, it'll count as one of the more remarkable sports accomplishments of the year. I think she'll reach her goal of becoming the first Russian ranked #1 on the computer sometime during the clay season (possibly heading to Paris as the #1 seed), but she won't defend her RG title and will lose the ranking for good as the tour turns to the grass. At season's end, she'll have been passed by (at least temporarily) by the Contessova Kuznetsova, as well as the Supernova.

Ultimately, the Horde might not end up having quite as much overall success in '04 (as far as winning titles), but their presence across the board will only increase in stature. In fact, the Australian won't be the only slam claimed for Mother Russian in 2005. Two of 2004's Russian slam winners will win major titles again this season, but neither will do it by defending their championship from a year ago. Also, one or both of Elena Dementieva and Vera Zvonareva will find themselves in a slam final... but neither will win (and one will choke away a "sure" title badly).

But, it won't matter. When the season comes to a close, all will be well, for a Russian will sit atop the WTA singles rankings.

============================

Ah, but it won't be who you might be thinking... but that doesn't prevent her from being #1 somewhere else. So, with its subject claiming the highest-ranking IQ slot for the second straight preseason, the #1 Most Intriguing Question for 2005 is...

#1.CAN MARIA SHARAPOVA SURVIVE WHAT "THE SUPERNOVA" HAS WROUGHT?

A year ago, the top IQ wondered how far Maria's world would expand. Well, it expanded exponentially far and wide in 2004. Now, she has to contend with the "year after."

Of course, in contemplating the question posed above, we have to decide whether Maria Sharapova, 17-year old cover girl and product endorser, is indeed the same person as the force of nature known as "The Supernova," the talented, preternaturally collected oncourt presence who battled Serena Williams toe-to-toe on the grass at Wimbledon, then overcame her yet again in the Tour Championships as the former #1, like a wounded bear backed into a corner, was swinging wildly with lethal precision from the baseline as she ran up a 4-0 3rd set lead. The former can be intimidating in a (some would say) haughty, beautiful-and-she-knows-it, above it all sort of way; while the latter can instinctively intimidate between the white lines in a "watch your back or she'll cut you" kind of circumstance. If they're one in the same, Sharapova the Player will continue to cut a wide swath through the tour for seasons to come. If not, she'll have a lot of self-imposed obstacles to clear before long as she deals with the mounting pressures in her life.

So, are they harmoniously one in the same? Is that even possible? Well, the Russian Spartaks certainly think Sharapova is different. She's not "Russian" enough. She's too "Americanized," they say. The Czarina & Her Court are right about Sharapova. She is different, for she alone has the ability to lift the sport to another level of popularity if she continues along on her current championship-grabbing path.

In the Associated Press' list of 2004's Top Female Athletes, Sharapova placed third behind Annika Sorenstam and Diana Taurasi, but it's revealing to note that both Myskina and Kuznetsova finished below the Spartak they beat -- Dementieva -- in their grand slam final matches. When it comes to public consciousness, there's something else -- an "excitement factor," so to speak -- at play. Dementieva trumps the other Spartaks in this category, but she doesn't put the entire package together and tie it off with a nice bow quite like Sharapova can. The Tour Championships event was promoted by picturing a leggy Sharapova reclining on the court, with the caption "the closer you get, the hotter she gets." Crowds increased tremendously in L.A. over past years... and Sharapova won the tournament, too. There you have it. She can whip up the crowd off the court, then give them just what they asked for on it, too. With one victory at Wimbledon, Sharapova is destined to have more impact than the rest of the Spartaks even if she doesn't win another slam title in her career.

So many other issues go along with a teenaged girl winning tennis titles, and keeping them all in order and continuing to win will be quite a task to pull off. Sharapova experienced a post-Wimbledon wobble after her worldwide promotional tour, looking unphenomenal and uncharacteristically shaky. But she set her mind on righting herself in the season's final quarter, entering and winning two small tournaments. Many criticized her decision to play in those lower-tiered events at the time, rather than enter bigger events such as the Moscow Tier I. Surely, the poster girl shouldn't have been playing outside the main spotlight, it was theorized. The wins are "cheap," they insinuated. But this is where Sharapova is different. She could have gone for the money and played the larger tournaments, but she'd been unprepared and likely would have lost early. Instead, she got her game together, rode the momentum to a Tier I final (Zurich, losing to Alicia Molik), got revenge on Molik a week later in a Philadelphia QF, then came into L.A. and took the biggest late-season title of them all at the Tour Championships. She gets it.

At this point, she could take the Kournikova route and coast on her looks and outside opportunities for the rest of the decade... but there she was in a Tier III and IV, working on her game and getting better. She gets it, and she'll get even more as a result of that. Because of the comments from the Spartaks about her father Yuri's rude and/or boorish behavior, Sharapova's potential participation in Fed Cup play in 2005 will be an interesting sideshow. But that's all it'll be, if it's even that. What happens on that front won't affect Sharapova's play elsewhere. She won't let it.

There is one way the Supernova and the Spartaks are the same. As Sharapova recently said, the Russians have an "eagerness to be the best. We're all very hungry and want to do our best." After such success in 2004, though, is Sharapova still hungry? "Starving," she told the Baltimore Sun newspaper in December. So, for all intents and purposes, Sharapova and the Supernova are indeed one in the same. At the moment, even as Sharapova checks off on bottle designs for her very own perfume in 2005, she's still single-minded about what the Supernova wants to accomplish in the sport. Her image looks to be in no danger of overwhelming the reality of what she's come to tennis to do. Namely, to win.

It'd be easy to say Sharapova will fall back a little this season, act her age and come down to earth a bit. It won't happen, though. Not yet. She's earned her position on the court (and off it). A second slam title this season, and the maintaining of her Top 5 ranking, will only solidify Sharapova's standing on both fronts. As 2006 begins, she'll be setting her sights on reaching #1 before she turns 20.

It could happen even earlier, possibly sometime this season. I certainly wouldn't put it past the Supernova... or Maria, for that matter. After all, they are one in the same. And it's quite a potent alliance.

============================

==QUICK PICKS==

1.First-time WTA singles champions in '05:
Nadia Petrova
Tatiana Golovin
Alina Jidkova
Zi Yan
Ana Ivanovic
Vera Douchevina (def. Maria Kirilenko)

2.No titles in '05:
Jennifer Capriati
Chanda Rubin
Karolina Sprem
Ashley Harkleroad
Eleni Daniilidou

3.Monica Seles will retire during 2005. Lindsay Davenport will do the same after the season. 48-year old Martina Navratilova will not, as she angles to become the first 50-year old to win a WTA doubles title in 2007.

4.Martina Hingis will make more than a few cameo early-season appearances, will win a doubles title, and will enter an event with Navratilova as her partner. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario will add to her list of career doubles titles, too.

5.One current or former Top 100 WTA player will willingly pose nude (it'll be no Myskina-esque "gotcha" situation, either) for a magazine, following in the footsteps of Aussie athletes such as Lauren Jackson (the WNBA MVP posed in Australia's B+W last year), or "star" in a widely-distributed internet sex video. Okay, I KNOW who you're thinking... but it could be someone else, right?

6.Venus Williams will reach a slam final. Serena will not.

7.Veteran late-career resurgence: Kveta Peschke

8.Navratilova will prime new doubles partner Daniela Hantuchova for success in '06. They'll join together to win a slam title in '05. Then, next year, Wonder Girl will follow in Svetlana Kuznetsova's footsteps by thanking Navratilova when she raises her first slam singles trophy at Wimbledon.

9.Myskina will become the first Russian female ranked #1, but the second Russian woman to get there will finish the season in the spot.

10.Your four 2005 slam winners: Kuznetsova, Sharapova and JHH (with none of them repeating their '04 slam wins). Plus, a first-timer from the Mauresmo/Dementieva/Zvonareva trio (right now, I'm thinking January's Melbourne "gambit" might work better in July) will round out the group.

============================

==TOP 10 FORECASTS==

==TODD SPIKER==

1.Kuznetsova...she was 0-3 in her first three '04 finals, then 3-1 in her last 4
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2.Henin-Hardenne...as long as she avoids a relapse
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3.Mauresmo...'04 is her last chance to win a slam
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4.Sharapova...won't repeat at SW19, but might just win in NYC
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5.Myskina...oddly enough, she'll win more titles than she did in '04 (3), but no slam #2
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6.V.Williams...one great slam and she could scale a couple more Russians
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7.Davenport...if she starts poorly, will she last to November?
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8.S.Williams...she's good for three near-brilliant weeks a season, but none consecutively
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9.Dementieva...she'll make a third slam final, but lose once again
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10.Golovin...the lastest teen Top 10er, until Vaidisova arrives
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+1: Zvonareva/Bovina/Molik...if someone falters, any (or all) could make the leap


==PIERRE CANTIN==

1.Kuznetsova...all around game is excellent. She is improving faster than anyone, and plays well under pressure.
----------------------------
2.Sharapova...just has such a big game, but clay is not her best
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3.Mauresmo...she'll play well in several big events, but not get to the end
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4.Henin-Hardenne...is she ready physically to play 20 tournaments to keep up with the Russians?
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5.S.Williams...will be very motivated, but can the body hold up?
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6.Myskina...lacks that big weapon
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7.Zvonareva...I'm tempted to put her even higher. She has the game of a Top 3, in my opinion, and just needs a breakthrough.
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8.Dementieva...if only she can get that serve fixed
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9.Davenport...she could do better, if I expected her to play 12 months or a full schedule
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10.Hantuchova...this would be a huge comeback. I think she's up to it.
---------------------------
LEFT OUT: Clijsters (wish I was confident she would play soon) & Capriati (decline is coming)


============================

...hmmm. Both Pierre & I picked Kuznetsova to be #1? One is a prediction. Two is a jinx. So, it probably won't happen now. Sorry, Contessova. (Psst... blame Pierre!)

All for now.

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NEXT WEEK:

"Act 1, Scene 1" of 2005

Read more...

2005 Intriguing Questions #3-4

The Waffles. The Belgians. Queen Justine. FilaKim. Le Petit Taureau. Call them what you will, their lot is to always be bunched together in discussions of all things tennis. Thus, Backspin keeps up the tradition...

#4. WILL CLIJSTERS' CAREER REACH THE POINT OF NO RETURN?

These are "high wire times" for Kim Clijsters. After struggling in vain to win her first grand slam title for a few seasons, she's spent most of the last year performing a balancing act centering around wrist injuries that have put her entire tennis future in doubt.

When her '04 season finally ended in October in Hasselt, her third event (of three) over the previous eight months that had ended with either a walkover or retirement, doctors expressed doubts that she'd ever be able to resume her career (and here we'd wondered whether her trademark slides on every court surface might endanger her by one day wrecking her ankles or knees). As it turned out, the wrist didn't require another surgery and Clijsters, for the moment, seemed to get a career reprieve. 2005 will likely tell the tale of whether it was only a temporary deferment from the inevitable. For a two-handed backhander such as Clijsters, chronic wrist injuries, if they don't completely extinguish a career, could forever alter the course of one. Even if she does play again, and she seems ready to try (recently wavering on whether to play the Australian Open, though she'd be smart to wait after trying to return too soon last year), she may never be the same player who rose to #1 in 2003.

2004 had started so encouragingly. Clijsters made the Oz final, losing to JHH, then followed up with titles in Paris and Antwerp. She talked of how excited she was to win a WTA event in Belgium for the first time, saying it gave her "goose pimples on (her) face." Who would have guessed that there'd be a chance that Antwerp could be her LAST title? She'll enter 2005 ranked #22, with her future in question, Lleyton Hewitt in her rearview mirror... and the elusive slam title maybe even a little farther out of reach.

Even if she regains her health, and recaptures a little focus, it'll take a while for FilaKim to be the "old" Clijsters. She won't end her slam drought in '05. She won't even come close. In fact, I'll say she'll play sparingly over the season's first half, taking it easy (possibly even taking another extended break) and pointing toward the summer hardcourt system. If she can't make it through even a cut-back schedule, Clijsters' career moment of truth could arrive over the next twelve months... and everything could be over at that point.

Many have long felt she wouldn't last long in the game. She was "too normal," they said. "Too nice," as well (which may explain the lack of a killer instinct she's shown in her grand slam failures). An injury could prove to be an "easy" way out the door for a player who possibly isn't cut out to be the "cutthroat" champion so many expect her to desire to be.

I don't think she'll ever be that kind of player... but I'm guessing that her playing days won't come to an end in 2005. I've never been a great fan of Clijsters, not so much because of her as because of the stomach-churning praise she got while rising to the top of the rankings. She was so well-liked it was as if people were afraid to point out how many times she'd choked precisely when a true champion should have risen to the occasion. (You know, kind of the opposite reaction that's occurred as the cool-under-pressure, but not beloved, Sharapova has shown her mental metal in big-time matches.) But no one wants to see a player's career end due to an injury. Having Clijsters' close out so early this way would almost be even more sad than how Monica Seles has been robbed of a career victory lap season because of her own health problems.

But at least Seles had her grand slam glory. Clijsters might not get another shot at her's. Even if she's well enough to make the attempt, she might never grasp that moment... but, considering her quest was Backspin's #1 IQ two seasons ago, how could I possibly say here that I don't want to see her give it a try?

============================

#3. IS "LE PETIT TAUREAU" WELL ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE FOR #1?

Justine Henin-Hardenne presents so much in a small package. She's a "big babe" in "little babe's" clothing. Power, heart, will and nerve pushed her to three slam titles and an Olympic gold in barely a calendar year as she chopped down more physically imposing opponents on a regular basis with a glorious blend of craftiness, orneriness and brilliant shotmaking.

Yet, there JHH was in 2004, brought down by something even smaller than she. A bug, a virus, a "mystery illness." Call if what you will, but it managed to wipe out half of the 2003 #1's season and has left her wondering, at least publicly, whether or not she'll be anywhere close to physically ready to contend for the sport's biggest titles this coming season. Of course, if we've learned anything since JHH became the Belgian player on tour it's that you should never, without question, ever underestimate her.

Consider, in the throes of battling the lingering viral infection last season, she emerged as if from a springtime cocoon (she'd only played two matches in the four months since being stricken with fatigue in April) to go to Athens in August and stun everyone by winning the gold medal there. The overwhelming effort she showed in Greece likely doomed what remained of her season. JHH struggled to the U.S. Open 4th Round soon after, then called off the rest of her schedule. In retrospect, even as remarkable as it seemed at the time, the Athens triumph might now rightly be considered one of the more amazing sports accomplishments in recent memory (there's Lance Armstrong winning six Tour de France's, of course, but JHH's Athens Gold isn't so far behind that the American cyclist can't see her over his shoulder).

Le Petit Taureau's parting shot was so magnificent that, even while missing so much time, she arguably could have still won Player of the Year in 2004. She won the Australian en route to raising trophies in four of her first five events, then took the gold. She was 35-4 overall, and at least two of those defeats were greatly influenced by the virus. After a "career year" in 2003, that was what JHH did for an encore. Imagine if she'd been up to par... the Russian Revolution might never have occurred.

But what about 2005? Can she possibly contend for #1 against Davenport, Mauresmo and the Russians while regaining her fitness? Probably not, since Queen Justine will likely take the "slow and steady" approach as she makes sure she isn't leveled once more by the re-born virus. She won't attempt to play a schedule chocked full to the brim. Still, the right combination of big-event success (she's won 26 straight Tier I matches) could keep her near the top, giving her a shot to reclaim #1, say, by winning her second U.S. Open come the fall. Of course, JHH isn't talking about that. Taking the "anti-Mauresmo" approach and making sure not to put too much pressure on herself in Melbourne, she's emerged from her recent exhibition matches openly questioning her ability to defend her Aussie title. In a way, it's sort of the same thing she did in the days leading up to Athens.

Now, Queen Justine wouldn't be pulling the wool over our eyes, would she? She wouldn't be the type to "wave" everyone in another direction, then make a run to occupy the space they so absent-mindedly left, right? JHH... practicing the art of gamesmanship? Shocking. Wouldn't it be great?

At least as far as the Australian is concerned, though, I doubt if it's a ruse. It's probably too early for a two-week title run, but don't think she'll go down and out easily, either. If she somehow finds her way into the final, bet on her to win it... it'd be too perfect a moment for Le Petit Taureau to pass up. I don't think JHH will actually win Oz, but I do think she'll take one of the remaining three slams, maybe even completing a "career slam" by taking Wimbledon (which would join her with Graf and Agassi as the only players to win all four slams, plus Olympic gold), where she was RU in 2001.

Just don't underestimate or overlook Queen Justine... you'll live to regret it. Of course, if you do, you'd just be joining a long and illustrious list of those who have. And, yes, that list could get even longer in 2005.

============================

==PIERRE'S PICKS==

And now, something special. Here are some of Tennisrulz Head Honcho Pierre Cantin's predictions for 2005:

Player of the Year: Maria Sharapova
Riser: Nicole Vaidisova
Surprise: Tatiana Golovin
Veteran: Lindsay Davenport
Fresh Face: Sesil Karatancheva
Down: Jennifer Capriati

==PIERRE'S CRYSTAL BALL==

1.Russia will extend its domination even further. Do you think four Russians in the Top 10 is a lot? How about if in twelve months that Top 10 included a majority of Russians? I've put five on my list, but players like Petrova and Bovina have without a doubt the potential.

2.Kuznetsova will be the best all-around player. I think she can play well on every surface. Her confidence is on the rise. Her game is clearly good, and getting better.

3.Again, no slams for Americans in '05.

4.JHH will dominate...when she plays! I just don't think Justine will be able/willing to compete in as many events as the other top players and thus will not be able to hold onto a Top 1-2 ranking.

5.An eastern European country other than Russia will see a player emerge as a grand slam threat. I think either Slovakia, Ukraine or the Czech Republic will have a player advance very far in one of the grand slams. Those countries have so many players coming up!

6.Vera Zvonareva will become the fourth Russian to win a grand slam. I just don't see how she couldn't. Her game is very, very solid.

7.Jelena Dokic will get her game back together in some way. She'll be like Daniela Hantuchova -- on the way back.

8.Speaking of Hantuchova, she will gain more and more confidence and, while she will be a real threat to top players for at least a few more months, when the green grass will come along, she'll be ready to take on anyone!

9.Russia will easily defend its first Fed Cup thanks to not only having the best players out there, but also being able to actually get them to play.

10.I'm really hoping I'm wrong on this one: Kim Clijsters will retire after trying a few times to make a comeback, because of an inability to prepare properly for tournaments.

(Pierre's picks for the WTA Top 10 -- as well as mine -- will be in the next Backspin)

=============================

==BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS==

==WEEK 1==

The draws are out, so the game is on...

AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND (IV-HO)
04 F: Daniilidou d. Harkleroad 05 TOP: Frazier/Jankovic =============================
(Dark Horse: Jidkova)
SF: #1 Frazier d. Brandi; #3 Daniilidou d. #2 Jankovic
FINAL: #1 Frazier d. #3 Daniilidou

...Daniilidou is the two-time defending champ. Three in a row is so rare.

GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA (III-HO)
04 F: Sugiyama d. Petrova
05 TOP: Petrova/Schnyder ==============================
(Dark Horses: Golovin, Karatancheva)
SF: N.Li d. Stosur; Dechy d. #2 Schnyder
FINAL: N.Li d. Dechy

...I'm simply not going to overlook Na Li here, then regret it later.

HOPMAN CUP; PERTH, AUSTRALIA
04 F: USA d. Slovakia ============================
FINAL: Russia (Myskina/Safin) d. Australia (Molik/Philippoussis)

...the Aussies had to pull out of last year's final due to injury. Russia? Why not? It's a trend.

HONG KONG, CHINA (Exhibition)
04 F: V.Williams d. Sharapova =============================
FINAL: V.Williams d. Mauresmo

...in a loaded draw that dwarfs the actual tour events for Week 1, Venus makes a statement. Of course, winning here last year didn't mean much, did it? All for now.

============================

Next Backspin:

IQ's #1 & #2, Quick Pick Predictions and Top 10 forecasts

Read more...