2011's Intriguing Questions

The new year is nearly here. What better time to look at 100 of the upcoming season's most intriguing questions (not to mention make a few predictions), region-by-region?

*NORTH AMERICA*
1. Serena Williams, USA: hmmm, Serena will be coming back from an injury that has kept her off tour for over six months (probably more line nine, when things are all said and done). She'll be given the task of getting her body and game into shape by summertime in order to be a slam contender in London and New York. Uh, haven't we heard some variation of this storyline more than once over the years? You do remember what usually occurs in the final act, don't you?
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2. Venus Williams, USA: winning in Dubai and Acapulco in back-to-back weeks every season (well, two years running, anyway) is nice, but don't you think Venus would gladly sacrifice that early season fortnight of dominance for the chance to raise a more important -- even if less ornamental -- trophy following a different fortnight?
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3. Melanie Oudin, USA: her "season after" syndrome wasn't exactly unexpected, but it's hard to believe that Fed Cup coach Mary Joe Fernandez didn't remember that Little MO literally cut her teeth under FC pressure BEFORE her starring role in New York in '09. Maybe Oudin's "I'll show her" singles win in the final against Italy will be the stepping stone for a hopefully better '11 campaign?
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4. Aleksandra Wozniak, CAN: her unexpected success (in '08, she became the first Canadian title-winner in twenty years) sort of ushered in the current era of North Americans not named Williams becoming legit topics of contending conversation on tour, so isn't it a shame that her recent injury troubles are causing her to be passed by in droves by her peers and (yikes) already largely "forgotten?"
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5. Mary Joe Fernandez & the "Bannerettes": all right, MJF & Co., what do you do for an encore to your encore? Well, a win in the 1st Round against Belgium (possibly featuring you-know-who, as well as the other-you-know-who) would exceed expectations yet again... even if Venus plays.
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6. Coco Vandeweghe, USA: her future looks bright, but one year from now will the notion of playing Coco over Little MO in the Fed Cup final's opening singles match be a case of "in hindsight, it was rather elementary, my dear Mary Joe" or remain a questionable risk? Vandeweghe's 2011 success after bearing the brunt (going 0-2 in singles) of Team USA's losses will be the ultimate judge, and being handled rather easily by a 17-year old isn't exactly a good sign. Speaking of that 17-year old...
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7. Lauren Davis, USA: she ended her '10 season by winning back-to-back-to-back prestigious junior titles at the Eddie Herr and Orange Bowl events. Considering that Daria Gavrilova won Eddie Herr a year ago, then went on to win the U.S. Open Girls title and finish as the #1-ranked junior in the world, is the currently #3-ranked Davis the latest "next big thing" in what is starting to look like the most promising generation of young Americans in quite some time? And considering that Davis just qualified for the Australian Open by wiping out Vandeweghe in the U.S.'s qualifying playoff final, extending her winning streak to twenty-seven matches (and 36 of 37) should maybe MJF have considered playing HER in the Fed Cup final? And I ask that only half-kiddingly, of course, since the Fed Cup captain has already publicly lauded Davis for her efforts in the playoff in Atlanta.
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8. Rebecca Marino, CAN: all right, just how on-target was Venus when said the Canuck reminded her of herself?
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9. Alison Riske, USA: she might be the least-known of the latest generation of would-be U.S. stars -- but is she actually the best of the lot?
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10. Beatrice Capra, USA: will her U.S. Open flash be more Oudin-esque or Stevenson-like... and a few years from now, will there be any difference?
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11. Martina Navratilova, USA: do we think "less" of her for not completing her trek up Mt. Kilamanjaro? OF COURSE NOT. It just proved once again that she is indeed human... and makes all her previous feats seem all the more impressive all over again.
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12. Serena Williams' cast: seriously, could it possibly be more fabulously "Serena-esque?

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13. Williams/Williams, USA: they have to get back on the SW19 title-winning horse, right?
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14. Oudin's word-emblazoned footwear: "Believe" worked. "Courage" didn't. It's time to retire this gimmick, don't you agree?
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15. FIRST TITLE?: Gabriela Dabrowski/CAN (ITF), Krista Hardebeck/USA (ITF), Christina McHale/USA (ITF), Shelby Rogers/USA (ITF), Sloane Stephens/USA (ITF), Coco Vandeweghe/USA, two Americans at slams (Girls singles, the first since Coco at the '08 U.S. Open)
16. FIRST FINAL?: Lauren Davis/USA (Jr.slam), Rebecca Marino/CAN, Melanie Oudin/USA, Alison Riske/USA, Sloane Stephens/USA (Jr.slam), Coco Vandeweghe/USA
17. FIRST SEMIFINAL?: Rebecca Marino/CAN, Coco Vandeweghe/USA
18. SEASON-ENDING RANKING MILESTONES?: Rebecca Marino/CAN (Top 50), Christina McHale/USA (Top 100), Melanie Oudin/USA (Top 50), Alison Riske/USA (Top 100), Coco Vandeweghe/USA (Top 100)
19. BIG WINS?: Williams/Williams (Wimbledon Doubles), Vania King/USA (w/ Yaroslava Shvedova, a 3rd slam doubles crown)
20. WHOPPER?: Vania King becomes the #1-ranked doubles player in the world

*SOUTH AMERICA*
21. Gisela Dulko, ARG: will she finally win a slam doubles title? For all the talk of what singles #1 Caroline Wozniacki DIDN'T win in '10, doubles #1 Dulko also didn't win a slam doubles title or reach a slam doubles final. In fact, she's never done either.
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22. Mariana Duque-Marino/COL, Camila Silva/CHI, Veronica Cepede Royg/PAR, Bianca Botto/PER & Gabriela Paz/VEN (as well as Miami Hurricane Laura Vallverdu/VEN, the NCAA women's Player of the Year): after another year of continuing and building success, is it STILL premature to think this might be the leading edge of the best group of young South American girls in a handful of generations, if not ever? Duque-Marino has already become the first Colombian to win a WTA singles title, while Silva and Cepede Royg now have the best chances to one day become their nations' first tour titlists. Meanwhile, Botto and Paz both garnered ITF titles in '10.
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23. Roxane Vaisemberg, BRA: the tour hasn't seen a Brazilian woman win a singles title since 1988, but that doesn't mean that 21-year old Vaisemberg's five ITF titles in 2010 (one off the circuit's season-best) are to be discounted, right?
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24. FIRST TITLE?: Laura Vallverdu/VEN (ITF or NCAA Women's Singles Championship)
25. FIRST SINGLES/DOUBLES TITLE SWEEP?: Gisela Dulko/ARG (I tried this one last year, and just missed on it... so I'll go with it again)
26. WHOPPER?: South America will double (at least) it's season-ending number of players ranked in the Top 100, after having just one in 2010

*EUROPE*
27. Caroline Wozniacki, DEN: is she really as level-headed as she seems, or were her slip-on-a-banana-peel '10 exits from the slams a bad sign when it comes to how she'll continue to handle her "end game" on the game's biggest stages?
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28. Kim Clijsters, BEL: is she really going to win another U.S. Open -- or another slam altogether -- and force me to view her only through the prism of her second, impressive-at-collecting-slam-titles post-comeback career? That wouldn't be nearly as fun, as far as I'm concerned.
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29. Justine Henin, BEL: is she really going put forth another lackluster season that will force me to view her through the prism of her second, rather ordinary, post-comeback career?
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30. Clijsters/Henin, BEL: is this prospective 2012 Olympic doubles team the first true sign that the apocalypse will soon be upon us? Considering Henin's "bad luck" last year whenever Clijsters crossed her path, maybe she should re-think the proposition. In 2010, Clijsters acted as virtual Kryponite to Henin. Justine went 0-3 against her countrywoman, holding a match point in one meeting and being a point away from a MP in another, then injuring her elbow and ending her season in match-up #3. But that wasn't all. The elbow injury that prevented her from joining Cljisters in that post-SW19 Brussels exhibition wasn't the only injury she sustained with "black cat" Clijsters nearby, as she also broke her pinky during practice for a Fed Cup tie in which Barbie was her teammate. And that's not even counting how Clijsters "showed up" Henin when she publicly donated her prize money to a children's hospital during the post-final trophy presentation in Brisbane. Be afraid, La Petit Taureau. Be very afraid.
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31. Victoria Azarenka, BLR: has she been eating her Wheaties, and getting herself (adaquately) physically prepared for the rigors of a full WTA season? Another year of retiring from a third of her tournaments without the excuse of suffering a major injury will be, to be blunt, totally unprofessional.
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32. Ana Ivanovic, SRB: is she ready to handle everything that comes with success this time around?
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33. Jelena Jankovic, SRB: like a student at exam time, did she totally sleep through her alarm clock and miss out on her chance to become something other than the minor star of a semi-oddball tangent in the middle of the Williams/Russian/Belgian era of women's tennis?
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34. Francesca Schiavone, ITA: wouldn't it have been the perfect "Hollywood" ending if Francesca had simply looked back at her '10 season, realized that it could never get any better than that, and walked off into the WTA sunset with a perpetual skip in her step and an eternal smile on her face? That said, it's nicer to continue to have her around now that she can be better appreciated.
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35. Italian Fed Cup Team: the title run has to end, right? Or maybe Francesca, Flavia & Co. know something that we don't?
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36. Piotr Wozniacki: he gets a great deal of credit for his daughter's rise to #1, but when does her (over?) reliance on his advice/instruction become a hinderance, since she has yet to be able to find her way out of a match's darkness in the slams when she can't turn to him?
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37. Sabine Lisicki, GER: we're not looking at another head-in-your-hands, if-only-she-could-have-stayed-healthy, sequel to "The Julia Vakulenko Story" here are we?
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38. Nicole Vaidisova, ex-CZE: is she restless yet?
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39. Yanina Wickmayer, BEL: after getting out all her frustration by winning at the start of the season, she sort of lost her mojo for the remainder of the year. Will a less-stressful offseason and beginning to '11 allow her to begin to find her way back to the level of play that got her into the U.S. Open semis in '09?
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40. Petra Kvitova, CZE: no player's results swung as wildly as Kvitova's did last year, as she showed slam semifinalist talent one moment, then can't-overcome-her-own-head deficiencies for long stretches afterward. We don't have a Czech case of "Novotna II" here, do we?
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41. Aravane Rezai, FRA & Laura Robson, GBR: which one will make the mistake of slipping and saying something stupid first?
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42. The Radwanskas, POL: an injury prevented Urszula from edging nearer to Agnieszka in the rankings in '10. With A-Rad beginning '11 on the injured list, will U-Rad finally begin the process of coming into her own on the WTA tour?
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43. Anabel Medina-Garrigues, ESP: will I continue to crack open the old Backspin chestnut about how AMG is just one tour title away from joining only Anna Smashnova in WTA history as players with double-digit singles titles, but zero QF-or-better slam results in their careers? Umm, I think I just answered my own question.
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44. Mirjana Lucic, CRO: a minor heartwarming story in '10, can the Croat shift her comeback into a higher gear in '11?
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45. Alexandra Dulgheru, ROU: is she the best young player totally flying under everyone's radar?
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46. Tamira Paszek, AUT: after finding her way back into the winner's circle, will she now pick up where she left off a few years ago?
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47. Kaia Kanepi, EST: after her career-best '10 campaign (though it wasn't without its rocky moments), she looked like a sure bet to potentially create a "Rocky moment" or two in a slam in '11. But how much will her fractured left elbow hold her back in the seasons opening months as she will have to build back her game up from a dead-stop, rather than being able to seamlessly carry over the momentum she'd garnered last season?
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48. Andrea Petkovic, GER: does she have too many interests (and too much personality?) to be as single-minded an automaton... err, I mean "dedicated tennis player" as many need to be in order to fulfill their potential? And, in a not-so-odd way, is that actually a good thing?
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49. The Pliskova sisters: after becoming the first pair of sisters to ever win junior slam titles in the same season, what sibling-related list will they add their names to (or start) next?
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50. Heinz Gunthardt: if AnaIvo has a great run in Melbourne, how many requests will Gunthardt receive for his coaching expertise? "Heinz... Dinara is on Line 1."
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51. Tsvetana Pironkova, BUL: is last year's Wimbledon run by one of the WTA's most frustrating "talent teases" all we'll EVER get out of her?
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52. Doggie Wars: Deuce vs. Stella???: Henin is 10-0 against Jankovic in their careers. But how would Justine's pooch, Deuce, fair in a footrace against Jelena's new pal, Stella?
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53. "Clijsters Worship": last year, it was a Kim version of Barbie, then the glorification of her philanthropic side in Brisbane. After that, she was canonized by way of a three-figure monument erected in her image(s). What'll it be in 2011? A tennis arena named in her honor? A newly-formed religion? Maybe even... Backspin "reparation proceedings" (bite your tongue... that day is still an unrealized dream/nightmare, but it's frightfully closer to becoming reality than it was a few months ago, I must admit)?
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54. FIRST TITLE?: Edina Gallovits/ROU, Caroline Garcia/FRA (ITF), Simona Halep/ROU, Polona Hercog/SLO, Bojana Jovanovski/SRB, Johanna Larsson/SWE, An-Sophie Mestach/BEL (ITF), Urszula Radwanska/POL, Elina Svitolina/UKR (ITF), Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova/CZE
55. FIRST FINAL?: Mathilde Johansson/FRA, Bojana Jovanovski/SRB, Urszula Radwanska/POL, Stefanie Voegele/SUI, Renata Voracova/CZE
56. FIRST SEMIFINAL?: Victoria Azarenka/BLR (at a slam), Ana Ivanovic/SRB (at a slam, since '08), Bojana Jovanovski/SRB, Urszula Radwanska/POL
57. FIRST QUARTERFINAL?: Alexandra Dulgheru/ROU (at a slam), Bojana Jovanovski/SRB, Urszula Radwanska/POL, Laura Robson/GBR, Heather Watson/GBR
58. SEASON-ENDING RANKING MILESTONES?: Alexandra Dulgheru/ROU (Top 20), Simona Halep/ROU (Top 50), Bojana Jovanovski/SRB (Top 50), Kaia Kanepi/EST (Top 20), Petra Kvitova/CZE (Top 20), Johanna Larsson/SWE (Top 50), Tamira Paszek/AUT (Top 50), Urszula Radwanska/POL (Top 50), Ajla Tomljanovic/CRO (Top 100)
59. TOUR TITLE-WINNING LEADER?: Caroline Wozniacki/DEN
60. FIRST SINGLES/DOUBLES TITLE SWEEP?: Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova/CZE
61. WHOPPER?: Kaia Kanepi/EST will reach a slam semifinal

*AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST*
62. Shahar Peer, ISR: one year after the Dubai Debacle, Peer put together the best overall season of her career and finished at #13. With a few more wins (she was 1-6 in semifinals), can she become the first Israeli player to ever be ranked in the Top 10?
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63. Ons Jabeur, TUN: is it even questionable that she's the best non-Israeli female player to ever come out of a Middle East nation?
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64. Cara Black, ZIM: how many tour doubles titles does she need to win this year to be able to figuratively rub her success in Liezel Huber's face?
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65. FIRST TITLE?: Ons Jabeur/TUN (Jr.slam)
66. FIRST QUARTERFINAL?: Chanel Simmonds/RSA
67. SWEET REVENGE?: Cara Black/ZIM will win two slam Mixed Doubles titles, defeating Huber in one of the finals
68. WHOPPER?: Shahar Peer/ISR will become a Top 10 player, but only briefly. She won't finish the season there.

*ASIA/PACIFIC*
69. Samantha Stosur, AUS: is countrywoman Anastasia Rodionova touting Stosur as a possible slam champion in '11 (including in Melbourne) just a bit more pressure than the Slingin' one really needed heading into a season in which she's going to need a third consecutive "career year" to maintain her standing in the sport, especially considering she has just one slam QF-or-better result outside of Paris?
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70. Jarmila Groth or Olivia Rogowska, AUS: Groth was an eye-catcher in the slams and won her first tour title last year, while Rogowska just claimed Tennis Australia's Wild Card Playoff tournament title by coming back from match points down in the final to defeat Jelena Dokic. Does this mean that there will soon be a legitimate question about which is her nation's best young player?
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71. Jelena Dokic, AUS: hmmm, since she missed out on taking control of the situation herself over the weekend, will Dokic gain entry into the AO draw thanks to a "discretionary" wild card doled out by Tennis Australia? You know, the same "free slam pass" that was so ludicrously denied her for Flushing Meadows last summer. "Ms. Sophie Ferguson... a 'TA' has left a message for you."
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72. Anastasia Rodionova, AUS: does her near Gold medal sweep (only her Silver in Mixed Doubles wasn't ultra-shiny) at the Asian Games solidy her early candidacy to be the tour's Most Improved Player in 2011?
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73. Yaroslava Shvedova & Zarina Diyas, KAZ: is the race now officially on to see which will one day become the first player representing Kazakhstan to win a WTA singles title?
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74. Kimiko Date-Krumm, JPN: is Martina Navratilova's tour record for oldest singles match winner in jeopardy? If so, that means we've got at least five more years of Kimiko to look forward to.
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75. Li Na & Zheng Jie, CHN: does it seem like a lifetime ago to you, too, that this pair was in the Australian Open singles semifinals?
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76. Chinese Fed Cup Team: so, is it now official Chinese Tennis Federation policy that they don't care about team competitions unless the event is held in Asia?
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77. Sania Mirza, IND: does a little off-court "stability" and "sanity" (which is probably far different for the Indian Princess than nearly ever other player on tour) mean things will pick up again ON the court? Two medals at the Asian Games, as well as a late-December $75K challenger win in Dubai, would seem to hint that it might.
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78. Tennis Australia: what sort of wild card shenanigans will TA pull this year? Well, I know that I'M waiting with bated breath to find out.
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79. FIRST TITLE?: Peng Shuai/CHN, Yaroslava Shvedova/KAZ (as a Kazakh), Xu Yi-Fan/CHN (ITF)
80. FIRST FINAL?: Chang Kai-Chen/TPE, Anastasia Rodionova/AUS
81. FIRST SEMIFINAL?: Chang Kai-Chen/TPE, Zarina Diyas/KAZ, Olivia Rogowska/AUS
82. FIRST QUARTERFINAL?: Misaki Doi/JPN, Kurumi Nara/JPN, Olivia Rogowska/AUS
83. SEASON-ENDING RANKING MILESTONES?: Chang Kai-Chen/TPE (Top 100), Zarina Diyas/KAZ (Top 100), Kurumi Nara/JPN (Top 100), Anastasia Rodionova/AUS (Top 50), Olivia Rogowska/AUS (Top 100)
84. FIRST SINGLES/DOUBLES TITLE SWEEP?: Yaroslava Shvedova/KAZ
85. WHOPPER?: Yaroslava Shvedova/KAZ will not only win a third slam Doubles title with Vania King, she'll also win her first slam crown in Mixed Doubles

*RUSSIA*
86. Maria Sharapova, RUS: if she can't get back to (at least) close to the top, is a career as a player ranked #8-15 for the next five or six years really palatable for a player who has flown so high and who has so many other interests/commitments?
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87. Vera Zvonareva, RUS: Zvonareva's 2010 season produced one small tournament title early in the year, but no more. If she wins a handful of crowns in 2011's first half, Wozniacki fails to title in Melbourne (or maybe even reach the final), while Zvonareva puts together another (or two) pre-Wimbledon runs deep into the draw of a slam, can the Russian -- at least temporarily -- swipe the #1 ranking from the Dane after missing out on her chance to do so at the Tour Championships in November?
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88. Svetlana Kuznetsova, RUS: feeling better now? Ready to act like a professional again? All right, then let's go.
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89. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS: is she one solid season of focusing on her fitness from making a run at the Top 10?
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90. Dinara Safina, RUS: is 2011 a virtual make-or-break season when it comes to the rest of Safina's career, possibly even ultimately determining whether or not she still has a tennis career at all in 2012?
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91. Nadia Petrova, RUS: Nadia had one of the most underrated good seasons on tour last year (she was one of only three players ranked in the Top 15 in both singles and doubles, and the only one not named Williams), but are her days of winning singles crowns (contending at a slam would seem a "crazed" fairy tale) a thing of the past?
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92. Alisa Kleybanova, RUS: no new Russian woman has climbed into the Top 10 since Anna Chakvetadze in 2007. Is Kleybanova the next "Hordette of note?"
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93. Russian Fed Cup Team: reinforcements (Ms.Sharapova, you're up) have been called in, but without the reliable Elena Dementieva can the Hordettes reclaim the spot FC victory circle that they once dominated?
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94. Ekaterina Makarova, RUS: was her Birmingham title (five wins over Top 20 players en route to her maiden tour crown) the most overlooked great performance of 2010?
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95. FIRST TITLE?: Daria Gavrilova (ITF), Irina Khromacheva (ITF)
96. FIRST FINAL?: Ksenia Pervak
97. FIRST SEMIFINAL?: Regina Kulikova
98. FIRST QUARTERFINAL?: Alisa Kleybanova (slam), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (slam)
99. SEASON-ENDING RANKING MILESTONES?: Alisa Kleybanova (Top 10), Evgeniya Rodina (Top 100)
100. WHOPPERS?: Daria Gavrilova will win her second career junior slam singles title, Alisa Kleybanova will notch two wins over a world #1, and Vera Zvonareva will briefly rise to the #1 ranking after Roland Garros (only to see Wozniacki regain the top spot after a week or two)

*AND FIVE MORE, JUST BECAUSE*
101. Pam Shriver, ESPN2: who'll she annoy, pique, tick-off or infuriate first in 2011? You'll notice I'm not even questioning IF it'll happen, only when. Hmmm, I wonder if SHE had anything to do with Mary Carillo deciding to end her participation in ESPN's tennis coverage?
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102. Fed Cup: when will the Fed Cup adopt the much-better Davis Cup format of playing the doubles match in the middle of the tie rather than at the end, thereby virtually assuring that every roster player will take part in a meaningful match? Plus, it'd set up the possibility of some super-intense Match #5 singles battles that would decide things.
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103. The Season-Ending Championships: when will the tour championships, following in the footsteps of the ATP World Finals' much-approved-of-by-the-players shift to London in '10, see fit to return the season's last major singles event to Europe or North America? After years of being lost in the shuffle -- not to mention the news cycle -- while playing in Doha the last few seasons, it'll be played in Turkey this season. Whose nightmare, err, I mean dream was the basis for that move, anyway?
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104. What's this... could it be... sanity???: roofs planned for new stadiums at Flushing Meadows. Shocking!! The WTA announcing its season award winners at the END of the season rather than three months into the NEXT one. What a concept!! What IS this, anyway? Have the feces-throwing chimps that had locked themselves inside the WTA & USTA HQ boardrooms finally been lured away with some sweet-tasting bananas, and a sport that has so often recently seemed allergic to logic is suddenly transformed?



Hmmm, then again... not so fast.
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105. Zenyatta & Serena... still antidotes for "Clijsters Worship": a year ago, when Serena was named the AP Female Athlete of the Year, 2nd place Zenyatta finished ahead of 3rd place Clijsters. This year, both Zenyatta (2nd) and Serena (4th) finished ahead of "official" WTA Tour Player of the Year Clijsters yet again. And I'm sure there'll be a four-legged toy version of Zenyatta soon, trumping Barbie's two-legged one last year (well, unless you count that mini-Jada).

(Hey, I have to get in all my shots at Kim now, since I fear I might not be able to have as much fun at her expense in due time, possibly as soon as about a month from now.)
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All for now.



2011 Preview Series Links: 'Twas the Backspin Before Christmas, Prediction Blowout, The Final Seduction of Miss Caroline Wozniacki

STILL TO COME: 1Q Preview/Week 1 Picks

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2011 Preview: "The Final Seduction of Miss Caroline Wozniacki"

As the 2010 season began, she was "The Princess of the Charm, with a side of harm." One year later, she's the #1-ranked player in the world. But will the "seduction" of Caroline Wozniacki finally include a grand slam championship in 2011?



"She is a bright, young, smart and charismatic star." So said WTA Chairwoman and CEO Stacey Allaster of Caroline Wozniacki in the waning days of the 2010 season.



It's hard to argue with the tour head's words, for in a relatively short span of time the 20-year old Dane has rounded into a capable, welcoming and worthy attraction at all stops around the world. The tour could do far worse than having this particularly charming blonde act as a spokesperson for and be the face of the women's game for years to come. But having her develop into something more -- a resilient champion -- is just as important. More, really.

It'll also require a potentially more difficult transition than the one that has seen her rise from just outside the Top 10 at the end of the 2008 season to atop the tour's rankings by the end of two years later. While Wozniacki has maneuvered her way into a power position within the WTA's framework, it's up to her to now mold herself into a player fully worthy of everything that comes with such responsibility.

Call if the "final seduction" of Miss Caroline Wozniacki.

While Allaster surely believed her complimentary words concerning Wozniacki, it is still hard to escape the notion that she was also fulfilling her own "unofficial" role as the tour's leading promoter/defender and doing all she could to deflect some of the undue criticism that had been recently pointed in the tour and Wozniacki's direction when it came to whether or not the Dane should be sitting atop the rankings. For for all of Wozniacki's many accomplishments this past season -- she led the tour in nearly every important statistical category when it came to winning matches -- the one thing that she failed to do was grab a grand slam title (or even reach what would have been her second career slam final). After failing to carry her North American momentum to a U.S. Open title, as Wozniacki rose into the top ranking position in the season's closing weeks, she quickly become a focal point of snarky tennis commentary, as every discussion of her feat was obliged to be accompanied by a note about what she HADN'T done, and what that meant in broader terms for all of women's tennis.

Unfortunately, in the eyes of (too) many now, but far more (as it should be) in the future, her lack of a slam crown is really the only stat "with legs." In fact, ultimately, the perceived "success" of Wozniacki's tennis lifetime will rest upon her filling that rather significant hole in her still-under-construction tennis resume. If she never wins one, her lack of a major title (see Elena Dementieva) will virtually define her career. Her top goal must be to do all that she can to change that path in 2011. Thing is, it won't be easy. Even if she does everything right.

Over the course of the past eighteen months, Wozniacki has managed to fashion herself into the most reliable, week in and week out player on the WTA tour. "Consistency" has become her middle name. No player has won more titles or matches, nor has another matched her current string of six straight Round of 16-or-better results in slams. Such workwomanlike abilities has allowed her to rise from the role of "ingenue" in a supporting role on the tour landscape to that of one of its "leading ladies." But, even with the #1 ranking in hand, she has not yet morphed into the "best" player in the world, with or without Serena Williams being factored in the mix. There is still work to be done, and room to improve her game and lead her detractors, hand-in-hand, into extinction.

Of Wozniacki's '10 slam losses, none were "good outs," as, without the opportunity for her father/coach to kick-start her between sets via a scheduled on-court coaching session, she fell behind early, never found her way into the match, and exited with rarely more than a whimper, winning no more than seven games in any of the four straight sets losses.

Wozniacki is not "there" yet, and she knows it. That's the good news.



Over the course of last season, even as she played through an injury-hampered stretch in the spring, Wozniacki worked hard to do what she does best -- work things out. By the end of the year, her aim to play with more aggressive were apparent in the season-ending championships in Doha. There, after falling behind early against Kim Clijsters in the final, she managed to work her way back into the match. But while her improved in-point instincts were often correct (sneaking in to attempt to put away a volley, moving forward trying to get more on top of her forehand and win a point off the ground with a well-timed winner rather than outlast Clijsters in a long point every time out) it was her execution of her chosen shots that often let her down. While her serve has improved, it's still not the weapon it can and needs to be in order for her to be able to be as consistently successful against the big-hitting Top 10 players as she is against the rest of the WTA field.

In a sense, it's probably advantageous that her surge back against Clijsters didn't result in a title, as her loss provided another clue about what is still missing from her tennis. Her endeavors to get into better shape immediately after Wimbledon proved her willingness to work, and the gradual improvements in her game have shown her ability to accept and incorporate new ideas into her approach. In a sense, she's moving in the correct direction when it comes to winning "the war," but her game is still not in a place where it can be relied upon to win the biggest battles against the best players on a consistent basis.

But Wozniacki understands that her quest is more akin to a steady long-distance race than a 100-meter sprint, even if the voice of those who don't will only get louder over the coming year if she once again fails to find herself the last woman standing at one of the season's four biggest tournaments. "I feel like I'm at a very high level and can beat anyone," she said late in the season, but "if (winning a slam) doesn't happen next year, I'm still young and have a lot of years ahead of me."

She's right -- she's the second-youngest player currently ranked in the Top 40, though the comfort she's so far shown in her #1 skin surely disguises that fact. Very much in opposition to recent #1's such as Ana Ivanovic and Dinara Safina, who saw their fortunes dip once they rose to the top of the rankings, Wozniacki's excitement and ease in the spotlight is an extremely encouraging sign that her progress will continue even in the more pressurized position in which she now finds herself.

It IS too early to fret. But now is not the time for Wozniacki to think that she needn't focus all her attention on reaching attainable career-long goals as early as during the 2011 season, especially with Serena Williams' second surgery on her injured foot meaning that the five-time Oz champion will miss the Australian Open in January. In fact, a good case could be made that her best shot at a slam title in '11 might come right out of the gate in Melbourne. Clijsters has been a dominating force on North American hard courts, while Justine Henin will be taking another shot at glory on red clay. The Williams sisters, no matter their current health, will always be favored on the grass. Down Under, though, the opportunity for a breakthrough could be at hand and, as was the case in New York, getting the "slam question" out of the way as quickly as possible would erase it as a point of contention from there on out. Wozniacki failed to take matters into her own hands in New York, but she'll soon have a second chance.

If she fails to immediately seize it, she might find herself in a very similar situation twelve months from now. In 2011, Wozniacki could be a better player than in '10, but still not win a slam. But she would arguably have had a "better" season if she loses the #1 ranking and wins fewer titles, but manages to claim her first slam along the way.

In many ways, the current offseason and 2011 present Wozniacki with her own seduction. Will she be content to enjoy the spoils of her recent success (she's expressed a desire to emulate Anna Kournikova), or work even harder to consolidate and build upon it, choosing to embody her #1 ranking in mind, body and spirit... and take the chance on doing something greater in the upcoming season? There are pitfalls in possibly doing TOO much (see Jelena Jankovic's wrongheaded decision to bulk up two offseasons ago), but with great risk often comes great reward. Wozniacki is comfortable playing an offshoot of her defensive-minded game, but it remains to be seen whether it will ever be enough to get her over the grand slam hump. Unless she makes a concerted effort to modify her approach more quickly than the steady-as-she goes alteration schedule she's so far employed, there's a good chance that she won't in 2011, either. It wouldn't mean that she'd NEVER win a slam, just that she might not to be ready to win one NOW.

But as she's said herself, she has many years to reach her goals. At least, she hopes so.



If the Dane's on-court slam success can ever match her off-court ease in the spotlight, she could have it all. Nothing should be more desirous for a tennis player than winning a major championship and following through on an athletic journey, but the sport is virtually littered with players whose career paths walked right up to the line of something more, only to be turned away without attaining ultimate success. Which player will Wozniacki turn out to be?

Let the "seduction" begin.



**WTA LEADERS - 2008-10**
[Titles]
12...CAROLINE WOZNIACKI
9...Serena Williams
8...Elena Dementieva
7...Jelena Jankovic
7...Dinara Safina
7...Venus Williams
[Finals]
20...CAROLINE WOZNIACKI
16...Vera Zvonareva
15...Dinara Safina
13...Elena Dementieva
12...Serena Williams
12...Venus Williams
[Semifinals]
28...Elena Dementieva
25...CAROLINE WOZNIACKI
21...Vera Zvonareva
20...Flavia Pennetta
19...Jelena Jankovic
19...Dinara Safina
19...Serena Williams
[Match Wins]
182...CAROLINE WOZNIACKI
152...Flavia Pennetta
150...Elena Dementieva
147...Vera Zvonareva
146...Jelena Jankovic


All for now.



2011 Preview Series Links: 'Twas the Backspin Before Christmas, Prediction Blowout.

STILL TO COME: The Intriguing 100 (with '10 first-timer predictions) & 1Q Preview (w/ Week 1 Picks)

Read more...

2011 Blowout: Eleventh Heaven?

Just how different will the WTA Top 10 landscape appear one year from now? Well, considering how an odd mix of unrealized expectations and unforeseen late-career success helped to shape the 2010 Top 10, it could have both a very different AND familiar look.

Such potential flux could very well make the '11 season, so absent of grand expectations after so many sleep-inducing injury-scuttled "dead zones" populated the '10 campaign, a much more enjoyable production that last year's. The pressure is off. This time we'll get what we get, and learn to go with the flow. Sometimes it's just better that way, anyhow.

At least that's the plan.

Of course, that doesn't mean this season is bereft of intriguing stories as the first tennis ball is set to be struck in conflict in just a few weeks. In fact, they're quite numerous: Amongst them, Caroline Wozniacki's slam quest, Francesca Schiavone's "year after," Maria Sharapova's continuing (or is it hopelessly stalled? I guess we'll find out.) attempt at a Supernovic resurrection, Phase 2 of Justine Henin's comeback, Serena Williams' latest post-injury return, Victoria Azarenka's opportunity to finally join the ranks of the game's elite, Kim Clijsters' chance to fully dissolve her "career underachiever" label and stamp herself as one of the greatest U.S. Open champions ever, as well as a slew of other stories that we won't see coming until they either make us smile or want to wish a plague on everyone associated with whatever it turns out to be.

Now, when it comes to trying to predict 2011's season-ending Top 10, I've once again decided not to tempt Backspin's old "Kuznetsova Curse" by actually attemping to rank the tour's best players from #1 through #10 (last year's "del Potro Debacle" on the ATP side only served to strengthen my resolve to make what was a temporary prediction "sabbatical" a likely permanent one) . Last year's alphabetical-only picks were pretty successful. I got eight of ten correct (with eventual #3 Vera Zvonareva making the "watch list"), including "wild card" pick Samantha Stosur. I only missed on my Henin and Sharapova picks, and give myself a pass on not seeing Francesca Schiavone's rise to the Top 10 coming.

As it turned out, three Top 10 spots changed hands from the end of '09 to the end of '10 (Clijsters, Schiavone and Stosur replacing Kuznetsova, Radwanska and Safina), one more than the previous season (when Azarenka and Wozniacki moved in for Ivanovic and Sharapova). At least one Top 10 spot will be up for grabs in '11, as Elena Dementieva has retired. Meanwhile, Schiavone will have to have quite a season to duplicate a Top 10 campaign that included a Roland Garros title. Likewise for RG runner-up Stosur. Meanwhile, one Williams (Serena, last seen selling her clothing line on the Home Shopping Network while sporting a sparkle-adorned cast on her right foot) is already experiencing a stint on the disabled list.

Here's an early prediction for the ten best players of 2011 ('10 ranks in parenthesis), with Top 10 Repeats & Top 10 Climbers highlighted accordingly:

Victoria Azarenka, BLR (10): Azarenka has seemingly been on the verge of big things for a couple of seasons now, but invariably something has gotten in the way. Often, it's been Azarenka herself. First, it was her anger issues. Then it was her propensity to squander HUGE slam opportunties, either because she literally couldn't endure the heat (of Melbourne, when she was forced to retire after having been dominating eventual champ Serena in '09) or take it (courtesy of Serena, also in Oz last year, when Azarenka lost a 6-4/4-0 lead to the once-again eventual champ). Then, at last season's U.S. Open, a pre-match concussion led to her passing out on court in the 1st Round and being taken to the hospital. Since Azarenka began to climb the WTA ladder, she has seemingly shown a heightened problem with her endurance in hot weather (in the AO, and also in Doha during the '09 Tour Championships), as well as the sort of muscle pulls and strains that one would think that a well-conditioned 21-year old athlete wouldn't constantly be hampered by. Last year, she was forced to retire from nearly a third of the events she entered. That's simply ridiculous for a player who didn't suffer any sort of major injury during the season. The potential is still there, and maybe Azarenka's final piece in putting things together in a truly meaningful way is getting into the sort of physical/cardiovascular shape that she needs to be in. She need only to look at the leap that her friend Wozniacki made after committing fully to her training immediately after Wimbledon last year to see what she should do. Hopefully, the Belarusan has begun to lay the groundwork for such a program this offseason, because there's another opportunity to be had in Melbourne this time around, and if she's ready she might be able to take advantage of it in a Serena-less draw. A career-first slam SF result would be just the ticket. If Azarenka is in the mind for positive omens, she should take note that 2010's slam breakthrough came from Francesca Schiavone after she'd won a late season title in Moscow in '09. Guess who won in Moscow at the end of '10? Yep, the A-Train did. Hey, you look for stepping stones where you can find them.
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Kim Clijsters, BEL (3): for seven months last season, Clijsters proved my pre-season thoughts about her to be right -- her comeback title at the U.S. Open in '09 would prove to be enough for her, and she wouldn't be committed enough to win another slam. The Belgian bombed (bageled?) out of Oz, didn't play in Paris and then was disappointing in London after knocking off Justine Henin. Thing is, just as Henin's season unceremoniously ended, Clijsters' finally began, as once the North American hard court season began, Clijsters then proceeded to prove me wrong over the last four months, proving herself to STILL be the tour's best hard court player, defending her Open crown and then closing out her season by winning the Tour Championships in Doha. It says something about the rest of the WTA field that her uneven season resulted in her being named the tour's official "Player of the Year" (a bit of a stretch, I think, though I did have her at #2 in the "Ms.Backspin" rankings for '10). But can she do it again in '11, and can she win a slam somewhere other than New York? Assuming good health -- and Serena's late summer state of mind and body -- Clijsters will surely be the favorite again at Flushing, even if the last three-peat champ at the Open was 1975-78 winner Chris Evert. But winning in Melbourne would be more impressive. With lingering great crowd support born during her "Hewitt interlude," one would think she and Oz would be well-suited for each other. But she's never won there, and only reached one final (2004). I won't be crazy enough (again) to say that Barbie won't win a slam in 2011, but if she does she'll have fully obliterated her pre-retirement label as a big-event choker. Of course, whether she wins slam #4 this season probably will have little effect on whether or not she ends the year in the Top 10 As long as her body holds up, Clijsters will easily do that.
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Justine Henin, BEL (12): all right... "take two." La Petit Taureau 2.0 sometimes looked good, and sometimes looked shaky... but only on a few rare occasions did things feel "second nature." To almost add insult to (literal) injury, after Henin said before '10 that she wanted to come back to tennis in order to win a Wimbledon title, she ended up injuring her elbow at the All-England Club and missing the remainder of the season. On the bright side, maybe the absence will prove to be a good thing. It should have allowed her (and Carlos Rodriguez) to re-assess this second career, and either learn a way to make her more attacking 2.0 style seem as second-nature as 1.0's did, or decide to drop the act and simply try to play like she did the first time around -- even if it does leave her more open to injury and cut the number of years this comeback will last. Even with only half a season in '10, Henin still finished #12 and won the tour's "Comeback Player of the Year" award in a year in which there was really no other overwhelming alternate choice. Last year was a successful campaign... for 98% of the other players on tour. But not LPT. But if there's any of the old spit-in-your-eye Justine still inside that small frame, that should prove to be an even bigger inspiration for her in '11 than Clijsters' success in NYC (err, I mean Federer's success in Paris... yeah, THAT's what she said, so...) was a year ago.
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Ana Ivanovic, SRB (17): is 2011 the season that AnaIvo will finally get back on the proverbial horse (and, no, not in any sort of Myskina-esque way), three years after she won a slam title and rose to #1 in '08? She certainly showed signs of a return to form in the late stages of last season, reaching the Cincinnati semis, tying her best ever U.S. Open result (4th Round), winning in Linz and then closing out '10 by claiming the final tour-sanctioned event on the calendar at the Tournament of Champions in Bali. The stretch got her back into the year-end Top 20 singles rankings for the first time since '08. Thing is, those results came after having worked with Heinz Gunthardt, who won't be Ivanovic's full-time coach in '11 because of his unwillingness to travel. Intriguingly, Ivanovic showed a bit of backbone and attitude last season, and she'll need that sort of mental fortitude to get back to the place she was (probably earlier than she should have been) when she inherited the top spot in the game a few weeks after Henin's sudden retirement. She bit back at Jelena Jankovic and her mother Snezana when AnaIvo's absence from Fed Cup become an issue, and then responded with her great season-closing run after initially being denied a wild card by the Montreal tournament organizers (and then refusing to accept it when it was belatedly offered). The Serb has lived the life of unexpected (unwanted?) #1, and then that of fallen wonder girl. At times, it hasn't been pretty. Ernest Hemingway wrote that "the world breaks everyone, and afterward many are strong at the broken places." Ivanovic may embody Papa's words in '11, but a good start Down Under could still be looked at as an imperative would-be boost. Once a finalist in Melbourne, Ivanovic -- like so many other potentially opportunistic woman -- stands a chance to make some noise in a Serena-less draw in January. A great result would be wonderful news for her psyche in regards to the rest of the season, and would likely mean her late '10 bounce would fully carry over into '11. Without a doubt, Ivanovic is closer to finally finding her way back into the forefront of women's tennis than she has been since she initially found herself there three years ago... but a true "comeback" is hardly assured. Still, being sick and tired of losing can sometimes do wonders for a truly talented athlete. And AnaIvo seems to have reached that point.
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Alisa Kleybanova, RUS (25): hey, after successfully pulling off my "Stosur for the Top 10" campaign one year ago, I had to decide to beat the drums for another "outsider" this time out, didn't I? Yeah, maybe not. But I am anyway. It's about time for a new Russian to crash the Top 10 party, and since Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova seems a year or two away from that sort of move, banking on the more ready-to-go Kleybanova, 21, seems like a good investment. Armed with a big game, she's been just short of some huge, early career-defining moments the last two seasons, especially in Melbourne, The last two years in the season's first slam, Kleybanova put up big fights against the "stories of the tournament," losing to both Jelena Dokic ('09) and Henin ('10) in matches they she really should have won. After losing a 6-3/3-1 lead against the Belgian last season, the Russian went on to clock wins over the likes of Clijsters, Jankovic, Dementieva and Ivanovic during the year, winning two titles and ending her season by reaching the Tournament of Champions final in Bali. Having finished '10 at #25, she'd be making a big leap to get into the Top 10 (although a 15-spot jump isn't the largest in these predictions -- see below), but there is recent precedent for such a move. Over the last five years, discounting ranking assaults put together by both newly-healthy Williams Sisters and an unretired Martina Hingis, we've seen two other players finish in the Top 10 after having resided outside the Top 20 the previous season (Zvonareva moved up from #23 and Agnieszka Radwanska from #26, both in '08). Still, just as the Stosur pick was fueled by her run to the Roland Garros final (something which I'm banking on possibly not happening again in '11), this one would likely have to include Kleybanova getting over that grand slam hump and finally pulling off one on those big stage upsets that have eluded her the past two seasons. Who knows, maybe a third chance will prove to be a charm for the Russian in Melbourne, and the race for her Top 10 debut will officially be on.
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Svetlana Kuznetsova, RUS (27): Kuznetsova had one of "those years" in 2010, but we've seen her rebound well from such drift in the past. Remember, theorhetically, this is still the same player who won a slam in '09 and finished at #3. With her off-court head (hopefully) in a better place, and her Cee Lo-ish (as in "F--- You"... hey, it's a Grammy-nominated song, and I suspect that Sveta has heard it often) mantra against the world likely outgrown, she's ripe for a comeback in '11. She was once considered to possibly be the most talented of the Russians, and she could be again. Just a normal, consistent campaign could be enough to position her back in the lower part of the Top 10. But, with Kuznetsova, nothing is ever a sure thing on a year to year basis. A good start to the season would probably set her off on an ultimately more rewarding course.
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Serena Williams, USA (4): alas, yet another incomplete season awaits after a second foot surgery that will (at least) keep Williams out of the first slam of '11. She still hasn't played since winning Wimbledon in early July. With any other player, that'd mean she wouldn't even be considered for a Top 10 spot. But this is still Serena we're talking about, at least until there's on-court evidence that that doesn't mean so much anymore. Even if Williams doesn't get her game going up to her usual standards until right before the grass court season, one could see her doing enough to get into the Top 10 by year's end. Still, she's at that point in her career where any single injury could spell doom if it's serious enough. A second surgery isn't good, especially when you consider that a player as historic as Monica Seles was ultimately forced into a slow-motion retirement due to a foot injury that limited her ability to train and compete. Right now, though, there's no legit reason to be pessimistic about Serena's near future. Plus, as her agent said back in the summer, she's a "fast healer." Even with her 30th birthday arriving in 2011, she's still the reigning queen of being able to pull off a few remarkable results with very little match play beforehand. SW19 and Flushing Meadows are still six and eight months, respectively, away.
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Venus Williams, USA (5): Venus is like a popular long-running television series -- obviously beyond its prime, but still occasionally capable of brilliance and, thus, worth watching on a weekly basis. Even though Williams had an injury-plagued '10 campaign, she still managed to pull off her multi-continent/multi-surface sweep of titles in Dubai and Acapulco for a second straight season (tossing in a two-match MSG exhibition event title as third-continent dessert this time around) and was one of just two players (Wozniacki) to reach at least the Round of 16 at all four slams. She's now finished in the Top 10 eleven of the past thirteen seasons (and was #11 in one of the two years when she didn't), and can almost assuredly be counted on to do so again at age 31 in '11. She even wants to play a little Fed Cup... but we've heard that before, so don't hold your breath. The Wimbledon Olympic tennis event is coming up in 2012, something that Venus has pointed to for a few seasons now, and often when reporters bring up the subject of retirement. So this coming season MIGHT be Venus' last fully-committed-to FULL season schedule, and it'd be nice if she could stay reasonably healthy throughout. If she can, especially on the grass, she's still capable of being a slam champion again.
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Caroline Wozniacki, DEN (1): well, is this going to be THE year? Possibly more importantly, though, does it HAVE to be. In short... umm, in order... maybe (but not necessarily) and certainly not (though one might have a hard time remembering that above the din should C-Woz NOT win a slam in '11). Wozniacki's rise in the rankings has been a steady, even-paced one the last couple of seasons, but since Serena Williams missed the final half of 2010 the new #1 was made to appear as if she hadn't done ENOUGH when she concluded last season atop the rankings without having won a slam. Now, as the Dane enjoys the spoils of being #1 this offseason, she has to also prepare well enough to allow herself to continue to improve her game over the course of '11 and stay a step ahead of not only her would-be critics but, far more importantly, the other players rightfully sensing a big opportunity of their own. Throw a rumored racket switch into the already-racheted up expectation game, and this offseason needs to have been treated by the Wozniacki camp as the ultra-important, ultra-busy training ground it is. If she shows up Down Under in fine form, then things should continue to progress at an even (slam-winning or not slam winning) pace. If she doesn't, she might find herself having to re-group come the spring. We'll soon see how well she handled the almost two-month break. Lack of slam titles aside, C-Woz has proven herself to be an accomplished winner in just a few seasons on tour. She's won more singles titles and matches than any other woman over the past three seasons (she's already seventh on the active list for career crowns while just barely out of her teens), and will likely be in the running for similar WTA-leading numbers this season. Top 10... Top 5... #1. In the grand scheme of public opinion, when it comes to her "reign," none of that really matters for Wozniacki in '11. It'll all be about whether or not she wins a slam. She could win fewer titles and lose the #1 ranking this coming season, but be considered to have had a more successful year should she pick up a slam crown. It's probably a good thing that the Dane doesn't likely ascribe to such thinking, for doing so might cause her to put undue pressure on herself to reach too far for something IMMEDIATELY that she's likely progressing toward at her own pace as it is, and possibly derailing (at least temporarily) her so-far-impressive passage. Of course, that doesn't mean it wouldn't be an incredibly good career move to get a slam win on her resume sometime in the next year. Thing is, I'm not really sure that she will. There's a great opportunity for the trek that began in Odense, Denmark to finally reach its desired destination in Oz in January, but if she fails to rise to the occasion in Melbourne she may have missed out on what could be her best slam chance in '11. We might be having this same conversation about Wozniacki one year from now, but that wouldn't be the end of the world... no matter how many people might try to portray it as such.
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Vera Zvonareva, RUS (2): even while winning just one title (Pattaya City) in '10, Zvonareva very nearly stole the #1 ranking away from Wozniacki in Doha at the end of the season. Of course. those back-to-back slam finals in London and New York had something to do with that. Since such slam success is far from guaranteed this time around, Zvonareva's going to need to tap her inner C-Woz and find a way to salt away a few more titles if she's going to maintain her position in the Top 5. Barring another bad injury, though, she's now consistent enough in her results to seemingly assure another Top 10 finish. In fact, with fellow Hordette Dementieva retired, Zvonareva now finds her name in the mix of the active players who are in the running for the "best without a slam" title. She's matured a great deal the last few years, and while I'm not predicting that she'll do it, I'd certainly give Zvonareva a better shot to erase her name from consideration for the "honor" than a few others I could mention who are in the running.
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...hmmm, that makes four new Top 10ers. There were only three newbies from 2009 to 2010, and two changes one year earlier. There were four changes at the end of 2008, though, and a whopping seven in '07 (of course, two were the Williams Sisters after missing huge chunks of the previous season... so it almost doesn't count). Still, there's enough potential transition in the game right now to see four, and maybe even more, new faces in the tour's upper rankings echelon one year from now. Remember, this is one of those between-season moments that makes it possible. In the current Top 10 are a hugely surprising slam winner and a player who has since retired; while waiting just outside are three former #1's (#12 Henin, #17 Ivanovic & #18 Sharapova) and a multiple-slam winner (Kuznetsova) who would seem poised to make runs at returning to the Top 10 in '11. So, while the Top 10 could look very different a year from now, it might still have a very familiar feel.

*FOUR MORE TO PONDER*
Jelena Jankovic, SRB (8): Hey Stelllllaaaaa!!!!!!! Sorry, I just wanted to get in the first Marlon Brando reference for JJ, considering she recently got a new dog named Stella. At this point, I've sort of found myself migrating into the camp that says that Queen Chaos will never be able to win that elusive slam title (which is actually where I started a few years ago before Jankovic cast her uniquely loopy spell on me). Her window for a championship was small, and she missed it after overtraining one offseason and not being at her best in a season when the Belgians were (mostly) absent, Maria Sharapova was out after shoulder surgery and Serena managed to be a force at all four slams for the first time in ages. Why, she coulda been a contender! (Okay, that gives me two references so far.) Still, with Elena Dementieva retired, someone has to assume the role of the Top 10 player who somehow manages to have enough good weeks over the course of a season to consistently finish in the final ten in the last third of her career while still never being able to get over the grand slam hump. It's a good place for a player to be, just not a great one. I could easily have pushed her into Kleybanova's Top 10 spot for '11, but I wanted to take a flier on at least one pick. Sorry, JJ, you "Wild One,"... I feel like such a "palooka." (That makes three, and four.)
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Francesca Schiavone, ITA (7): when a player has a career year at age 30, it's not often that she comes back a year later and tops it at age 31. Of course, Francesca could easily surprise again in '11, but the odds are against it. Surely, at Roland Garros, she'll enter as one of the favorites, and her still-high ranking will allow her to avoid some big upset possibilities in the early rounds (remember, she lost in the 1st Round to Stosur in '09, only to defeat the Aussie in the final in '10). If she were to get on a run, who knows? And that one huge result would probably be enough to keep her in the Top 10 a year from now.
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Maria Sharapova, RUS (18): the Russian might be otherwise engaged off the court, but the more interesting aspect of Sharapova's coming season will revolve around whether or not she'll be more fully engaged ON it. She managed to mostly play a full season in '10, but she only occasionally resembled the player who won titles at three of the four slams before shoulder surgery. Back-to-back years without season-ending Top 10 ranks, plus a handful of the sort of choking/mental collapse losses over the past year, have made any lingering aftereffects of her shoulder difficulties almost a secondary story. When she was Supernovic, Sharapova was a mentally tough obstacle who thrived under pressure. She's not anymore, probably because she doesn't believe she still has a consistently big and accurate serve to turn to when times get tough. Sharapova is a great frontrunner, cruising through two weeks en route to her slam titles, but if she can't return her serve/confidence to past levels, can she handle being an "average" contender rather than an "exquisite" one?
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Samantha Stosur, AUS (6): the Aussie had a career year in 2010, particularly running roughshod over opponents during the clay court season. Still, she couldn't get past Schiavone in the Roland Garros final, then pretty much saw her results turn barely mediocre the rest of the season. She made an encouraging comeback in the WTA Championships to end her season, but now she'll be expected to repeat or improve upon her '10 exploits this year (even countrywoman Anastasia Rodionova is pushing her as a contender to win a slam in '11 -- preferably in Oz in January). Stosur has learned to handle her nerves over the past two seasons, but it's hard to escape the notion that she might take a half-step backward this season.
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...of course, there ARE others who are potential Top 10ers if they can get their games together. Dinara Safina, of course, being the most talented of that bunch. But is her body going to let her compete at her former #1 level? Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (#21) has made steady upward progress, but she's probably going to need to fully commit to getting into somewhat better condition if she's to make her next logical leap. Shahar Peer might be the most intriguing prospect, though. After a tough and controversial '09 season, she rebounded well in '10. She attained a career ranking high and finished #13 while reaching seven semifinals, but only advanced to one final (she lost) and posted two Round of 16 results at the slams. A handful more wins and she might be able to inch her way into the Top 10 for the first time in her career.



*10 for '11*
Who's the player under 21 ranked outside the Top 25 who's most likely to finish there in 2011? Alexandra Dulgheru

Who are three slam "contenders" who definitely won't win a slam title in '11? Jelena Jankovic, Maria Sharapova & Samantha Stosur

Who'll win a junior Girls slam championship? Daria Gavrilova, Ons Jabeur, and two Americans

Which nation will win the Fed Cup? Russia

Who'll be the Most Surprising Player? Bojana Jovanovski (veteran: Mirjana Lucic)

Who'll be the Most Improved Players? Urszula Radwanska & Coco Vandeweghe (veteran: Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova)

Who'll be the Comeback Player of the Year contenders? Ana Ivanovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova & Kateryna Bondarenko

Who'll be the highest-ranked players without a career tour singles title? Melanie Oudin & Dominika Cibulkova

Who'll be the two youngest players in the Top 100? Zarina Diyas & Laura Robson

In what 5-position range will Maria Sharapova's year-end ranking fall? #8-12



=EARLY SLAM OUTLOOKS=
AO: Henin d. Wozniacki (SF's???: Azarenka, Clijsters, Ivanovic & Kleybanova)

...opportunity resides for SOMEONE now that Serena has announced that another surgery on her foot will prevent her from going for a three-peat in Melbourne. Clijsters will likely enter as the favorite, but she's only reached one final in Melbourne (and was nearly double-bageled on her way out the door a season ago). I'm thinking of an Henin/Clijsters matchup in the QF or SF, with an invigorated LPT 3.0 being able to find those final few points that eluded her in her '10 match-ups with her countrywoman. With so many of the top stars sporting Riddler-like outfits filled with question marks, though, all eyes HAVE to shift to #1 Wozniacki. Is this where she'll put the she-doesn't-have-a-slam discussion on the shelf forever? This is where her offseason preparation is so important, because if she's enjoyed the spoils of her labors TOO much she might miss out on what could be her very best chance to win a slam in '11.

RG: Kuznetsova d. Ivanovic (SF???: Henin, Schiavone, Stosur & Zvonareva)

...since I picked Henin in Melbourne, I won't pre-pick her here. (If she doesn't win in Oz, though, I'd think differently.) Expect all the "usual suspects" to come to the fore here, even past champions like Kuznetsova and Ivanovic who haven't looked much like the same players they were in Paris since they lifted the Coupe de Suzanne Lenglen. Even a confident and comfortable Schiavone has to be considered. In fact, the only top players who'd probably be out of the running on the clay (other than Clijsters, who'll probably find a way to miss this event again, either literally or psychologically) are Venus and Serena, no matter their health at the time.

W: Williams d. Williams (SF???: Clijsters, Henin, Kanepi & Wozniacki)

...finally, the Sisters make their slam presence felt. Venus' place on the All-England Club stage has somewhat been usurped by Serena of late, but one year away from the Olympic tennis competition being held at SW19, expect the older Williams sibling to get herself reacquainted with things. Of course, that doesn't mean that she'll win title #6. If for some reason the Williamses aren't the factors they normally are, Wozniacki could manage to slip through if she's managed to improve her volley over the season's first half. She IS a former Wimbledon junior champ, and has a grass court title on her resume.

US: S.Williams d. Clijsters (SF???: Henin, Kleybanova, V.Williams & Wozniacki)

...Clijsters' impressive Open run could very well continue in the fall, but three-peats are TOUGH. Just ask Serena. Speaking of, this would mark a (hopefully) healthy Serena's first action in New York since her "F-bombs Heard 'round the World" exit in the '09 semis against Clijsters. Venus has reached at least the QF in ten of her twelve Open appearances, and can't be discounted to be a factor again. Meanwhile, I guess I'm holding off on Wozniacki going slammin' until 2012... though I DO hope she proves me wrong at some point in '11.

Of course, I could be way off on all these long-range slam predictions, but I've often found in recent seasons that it's almost easier to be more accurate picking the slams in December than after having been "brainwashed" by actual tour results during the season. Last year, I picked four of seven finalists correctly in the preseason, excluding the by-then-injured Henin at the U.S. Open, (and had Zvonareva reaching her first slam final, too, even though I'd gone with her doing so in Paris).



**Looking for a Third: ATP Top 10 Predictions**

...as the ATP tour prepares to kick-off its 2011 season, the leading story is pretty much the same one that has shaped the last few: Rafa vs. Roger.

The two have swapped the #1 ranking multiple times the last three seasons and, even though the Spaniard has opened up a bit of a gap between them over the past year, the same situation could very well arise again this coming season. Rafael Nadal had the superior overall season in '10, winning three straight slams (he's going for a non-calendar "RafaSlam" in Melbourne); but after dealing with new fatherhood, a rare spate of injuries and a few very unFedereresque losses for much of the season, Federer ended the year on a 21-2 run after the U.S. Open, winning three titles, defeating Nadal in the ATP World Tour Finals by aggressively taking the initiative like he hadn't in a couple of years, and moving into position to make his recent naysayers eat their words yet again.

The pair have now won four straight slams, but their big event dominance goes far deeper than that. Of the past twenty-three slams, they've won twenty-one. Of the last twenty-six, they've claimed twenty-three. From this pre-season vantage point, little looks to change in '11.

For brief moments the last few seasons, the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Juan Martin del Potro have occasionally risen to challenge the Big Two (the Serb and Argentine even won a single slam title each), but none has been able to solidify themselves as anything other than a minor barnacle attached to the Rafa/Roger leviathan. Robin Soderling has promisingly reached multiple slam finals, even beating Nadal and Federer along the way, but has yet to put everything together on a final Sunday in one of the season's four biggest events. Last year, Tomas Berdych added his name to the list of "others" and "almosts" battling to be the best player ranked #3 or lower.

In all likelihood, it'll be age, physical/mental wear-and-tear and injuries that will eventually remove the Spanish and Swiss stars from atop the ATP roost (in ranking mathematics, even if not public perception) rather than the culprit being a TRUE "third" who manages to outhit, outhustle and outthink the two best players in the world. Right now, that "inheritor" of the top spot might exist on the tour landscape, but he's currently an "anonymous" face who seems fated to continue to play a supporting role in the ATP drama for at least a few more seasons.

Here's an early prediction for the year-end 2011 Top 10ers (with '10 rank in parenthesis), listed alphabetically:

Marin Cilic, CRO (14): he's been inching toward a big breakout campaign for a couple of seasons now. Last year's semifinal in Melbourne needs to just be the beginning.
=============================
Juan Martin del Potro, ARG (259): I'm still feeling guilty for inadvertantly putting a "curse" on him by picking him to finish at #1 a season ago. He finished '09 at #5 after winning the U.S. Open, then missed almost all of 2010 with a wrist injury (playing just six total matches). If he can get fully healthy -- he says his wrist is now "perfect" -- and in full form by mid-season, he could still put up enough good results to sneak back into the Top 10.
=============================
Novak Djokovic, SRB (3): he wins his fair share of titles, and gets his fair share of big wins, too. But it's looking more and more like that '08 Australian Open title was an anomaly rather than a sign of things to come.
=============================
Roger Federer, SUI (2): the big question is whether the "renewed" Federer we saw at the end of '10 will be the one we'll see throughout the entire '11 campaign. If so, all those past reports of his slam-winning demise were (once again) greatly exaggerated.
=============================
David Ferrer, ESP (7): he had a largely overlooked great season in '10 (his five finals were bested by only Nadal and Federer), but one wonders if he can continue to be such a consistent force as he approaches his 30th birthday (he'll turn 29 in April).
=============================
Rafael Nadal, ESP (1): could he ever top his '10 season? Back-to-back-to-back slams wil be difficult to replicate, but getting a fourth straight in Oz would make him the first man to do so since 1969, calendar or non-calendar.
=============================
Andy Murray, GBR (4): he's proven he can beat Federer and Nadal, but not that he's EVER going to be a grand slam champion.
=============================
Sam Querrey, USA (18): you'd think a player with four titles in five appearances in finals in '10 wouldn't have just barely managed to finish the season in the Top 20, but that's what happened to Querrey last year. A little more big event consistency (he managed just two Round of 16 results in the slams in '10) could move him up.
=============================
Andy Roddick, USA (8): he's not really a slam contender anymore (though a good draw in London could give him one final chance before it's over), but he'll likely put up enough good results to hold onto a spot in the bottom of the Top 10.
=============================
Robin Soderling, SWE (5): he's been the best non-Big 2 player in Paris the last two years, but still went 0-2 in Roland Garros finals against Roger and Rafa.
=============================

*3 MORE TO CONSIDER*
Tomas Berdych, CZE (6): he's got the talent to win a slam, but that was the case before he finally reached his first career slam final at Wimbledon last season, too. He could rise still higher, or completely fall out of the running in '11. A clue to what might be about to come could possibly be found in his overall 9-14 record in '10 AFTER having reached the SW19 final.
=============================
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, FRA (13): if he could stay healthy, he'd be a virtual Top 10 lock. Thing is, he's had a hard time doing that of late.
=============================
Fernando Verdasco, ESP (9): it'd be easy to simply flip him with another Top 10 Spaniard -- Ferrer -- on this list and feel totally fine about it.
=============================



*EARLY SLAM OUTLOOKS*
=AO=
Federer d. Nadal (Alternates: Djokovic, Murray & Soderling)
=RG=
Nadal d. Soderling (Alt: Djokovic, Federer & a player no one predicts)
=WI=
Nadal d. Federer (Alt.: Berdych, Cilic & Murray)
=US=
Federer d. del Potro (Alt.: Djokovic, Murray & Nadal)

All for now.



2011 Preview Series Links: 'Twas the Backspin Before Christmas.

STILL TO COME: The Final Seduction of Miss Caroline Wozniacki, The Intriguing 100 (with '10 first-timer predictions) & 1Q Preview/Week 1 Picks

Read more...

'Twas the Backspin Before Christmas

A (hopefully) slightly amusing pre-holiday offering...



'Twas the Backspin before Christmas, and all thro' their heads
Are either visions of grand slams or Safina-esque dread.
The Dane's new rackets are strung by the practice courts with care,
Hoping that they can help her wash that silly "but she has no slams" dirt from her hair.

Francesca's memories are still nestled all snug on the Parisian clay,
While Slingin' Sammy still wonders how she failed to make it HER day.
And Kim in her Dream House, and Justine in Comeback Mode 2,
Are just settling their brains on how to collect more hardware before they are through.

While on all their radars there arose such a clatter,
They collectively sprung from their training tables to see what was the matter.
Away to their cell phones and computers they flew all a flitter,
Updated their Facebook status, and jumped onto Twitter.

The mysterious sparkle from the sky o'er the new year so near,
Gave the lustre of opportunity to many tournaments held dear;
When, what to their wondering eyes should emerge,
But a miniature sleigh led by tennis-playing women on the verge.



With a fashion-conscious driver, as diverse as she is quick,
They all knew in a moment that it could't be St. Nick.
More swiftly than Sisters her coursers they came,
And she whistled, and shouted, and call'd them by name.

"Now! Jelena, now! Caroline, now! Venus and Vera,
On! Maria, on! Ana, on! Sveta and Vika;
To the end of the fortnight! To the final match of the draw!
Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"

As Serbs after Fed Cup whose barbs they did fly,
Though all will be given a chance, only one will soon no longer be another title shy;
Down Under to Melbourne the coursers and their like will soon shoo,
A sleigh full of contenders -- and, on their minds, an absent one, too.

Three weeks from a new season, at Backspin HQ,
I'll let you in on a secret, just between me and you.
Just moments ago, as I was turning around,
Down the chimney Serena Claus came with something less than a bound.

She was dressed all in black from her neck to her unnaturally big right foot,
Which was adorned with bright sparkles, along with a some ashes and soot;
Shopping bags filled with her Signature line of clothes were flung on her back,
And she look'd like a shopaholic just opening her pack.

Her eyes -- how they twinkled! Her dimples: how merry,
Her scent was like roses, the tone of her mood as smooth as dairy;
Her big smile was as wide as all the oceans we know,
And her red cap was fashionably trimmed with a white band and fluffy ball as white as the snow.

She placed all her presents around the tree trimmed with light,
Lining them up in neat rows, it was a beautiful sight.
I watched as she scribbled notes and attached them to each bagged token,
Laughing to herself as she did so, but being conscious to remain soft spoken.

One read, "Caro -- you can make them be quiet,"
While another, it said, "Victoria -- winning in Oz is nice, maybe you should try it."
Justine's note said something about "not being her,"
While still others appeared to be written to "Kimmy," various Russians, Italians and Serbs.

Then, with a wink of her eye and a turn of her head,
She looked directly at me, and cheerfully uttered, "Be sure to tell them what I said."
"But you haven't said anything," I innocently replied,
Causing her to act as if she was crestfallen, and had recently cried.

"That's what I'm banking on," she said with a wicked grin,
"None of them will fully seize their moment and run with it -- and that'd be a big sin."
She pointed at her clunky-but-sparkly foot cast, then raised a sole finger,
"I'm giving them all this one slam gift of my absence, but after Melbourne it won't linger.

I'll be back before they know it, and come summer many of them will agree,
They had a shot down in Australia, but left without experiencing their glee.
But that's okay, I'm fine with it. I've still got empty space on my shelves,
And by this time next year I'll have (at least) a fourteenth trophy to be polished by my elves."

Then with that she was finished, and turn'd with a jerk,
It was obvious that she had now completed her offseason message-sending work.
Laying a fancy-nailed finger aside of her nose
And giving a nod, up the chimney she rose.



She limped into her sleigh, and to her team gave a shout,
And away they all flew, like a Belarusan in the heat -- seemingly almost ready to give out.
But I heard her exclaim, 'ere she drove out of sight --
"Happy holidays to all, but please don't celebrate in a German restaurant this or any other night!"





...of course, many thanks to my old friend Clem for allowing Your Friendly Neighborhood Backspinner to "borrow" his words for a moment here today.





== 2011 PREVIEW SERIES EDITIONS TO COME, starting on Wednesday of this week ==
* "The Final Seduction of Miss Caroline Wozniacki"
* 2011 Prediction Blowout (w/ Top 10 picks, early slam forecasts, & ATP predictions)
* The Intriguing 100 (region-by-region, with '11 first-timer predictions)
* 1Q Preview (w/ Week 1 Picks)

Read more...