Friday, January 17, 2025

AO25 - O Say, Sabalenka Can Now See

Aryna Sabalenka came to Rod Laver Arena on Friday. She saw, and also conquered. But there was quite a bit in between.



The two-time defending champ and #1 seed's 3rd Round face-off with Denmark's Clara Tauson was exactly what it was expected to be, a match-up of power that is the definition of what's called (or used to be, at least) "big babe tennis." We didn't see the ace-fest that some might anticipated (only three were hit combined, all from Tauson, and none in the 1st set) -- though Sabalenka's post-match comments about Laver's slow surface likley explains much of that -- but we got a bit hitting, tight-on-the-scoreboard affair the brought some pre-middle weekend clarity regarding Sabalenka's attempt at the first AO title three-peat since 1999.

In that, the Belarusian showed precisely why she sits atop the rankings. The former damaging-emotions-on-her-sleeve version of Sabalenka remains in the past, or is glimpsed only briefly these days, with the old sense of impending disaster having been replaced by something close to a sense of inevitability due to the honed skill of a champion who now knows how to keep the proverbial train on the tracks en route to bringing home a victory in the clutch.

Meanwhile, after another good showing in which Tauson got an up-close glimpse of where *she* needs to be, the Dane now exits the big stage and gets the chance to recalibrate a bit in preparation for her next opportunity.

The two women both won Week 1 titles earlier this month, and came into the day a combined 14-0 on the season. In something of a surprise, the match began with seven straight breaks of serve before Tauson finally notched the maiden hold, taking a 5-3 lead.



But with her back against the wall, Sabalenka proved to be, well, Sabalenka. And at this point that means something very different than what it might have meant a few seasons ago.

After a hold of her own (at love), Sabalenka got the break to level the set a game later. Tauson, who'd netted a backhand on BP, reacted angrily to squandering her chance to put away the set (call her the "anti-Navarrro," ie. she shows a bit *too* much emotion in the moment, and for a few too many points after), and seemed to briefly lose her focus. At the same instant, the world #1 dialed in, getting a second straight love hold to take a 6-5 lead.

Sabalenka ripped a crosscourt forehand to reach SP on Tauson's serve in the following game, but the Dane didn't give up the fight, saving four BP/SP in all (in a variety of ways, with a big serve, a passing shot after a drop, a shot at the net, and then with a service winner). Another big Tauson serve ricocheted off Sabalenka's racket frame and hit the Laver stadium roof, giving the Dane her first GP. Sabalenka caught a line to keep the game alive, but Tauson got the hold on her second chance, forcing a TB.

Sabalenka grabbed the early mini-break at 2-1, and soon led 4-1 before Tauson surged to knot the score at 4-4. But when she served two, up 5-4 with the set within reach again, Tauson dropped both points. A Sabalenka return winner down the line gave her a fifth SP, which she put away (at 7-5) with a forehand winner.

The 2nd set saw Sabalenka grab the early edge, breaking for 2-1 and holding serve a game later. But at 4-3 down, Tauson -- pulling out perhaps her biggest groundstrokes of the day when they were most needed -- wrong-footed the world #1 with an opposite court forehand to break back and get the set back on serve. The Dane held six GP for an on-serve scoreboard lead in game 9, but Sabalenka's level rose in perhaps *the* key game of the match, saving the first GP with a volley off a lethal Tauson shot (shades of Aryna's doubles #1 past).

Tauson saved a mid-game BP with an ace (rare on this day), but Sabalenka took advantage of her second opportunity with a crosscourt forehand that flew past the Dane at mid-court, getting the break for a 5-4 lead.



After all that, Sabalenka finally got the chance to serve for the match, one in which she simply had *more* than her Danish opponent, as well as -- and maybe just as importantly -- a little bit *less*. As in a bit less emotional overflow, which usually only results in needless negativity (see Sabalenka's early-career *before* she learned the way of The Force) . It's something Tauson, who seems to have it a tad more under control than a few seasons ago (though not yet enough), still needs to work on more as she climbs the rankings (she's the live #39) and, if her health holds, is a likely seed come Roland Garros.

In the match's final game, Sabalenka fell behind 15/40, saving both BP when Tauson missed on a go-for-broke return down the line, then with a big serve and forehand combination. On MP, Sabalenka's second serve carried Tauson wide to her left, then the Belarusian put away a backhand at the net to close out the 7-6(5)/6-4 win.



As it turned out, this contest was another example of how far Sabalenka has come over the past few years. Not long ago, she might have let this one slip through her fingers in a fit of emotions and errors, and at the very least wouldn't have wrapped things up in straights. These says, while she (like everyone) can still give up leads and go through tough stretches, she now knows how to pull a set (see vs. Bouzas Maneiro) and/or match back from the danger zone, avoiding having to overplay in the heat, and keeping her momentum going into the second week. It's why she's been so dominant in the hard court majors.

8-0 in 2025, Sabalenka has won 17 straight in Melbourne (including 21 consecutive sets) and is 30-1 in her last 31 hard court slam matches (and 35-2 back to the '22 U.S. Open).

It's been a quarter century (Martina Hingis 26 years ago) since a woman three-peated at the AO but, as she charges into the Round of 16, Sabalenka can now see there from here.









=AO NOTES=
...in the first day of 3rd Round action at this AO, Donna Vekic's breakout slam year of '24 has continued into 2025, as the #18-seeded Croatian outlasted #12 Diana Shnaider in a 7-6(4)/6-7(3)/7-5 marathon, erasing the Hordette's 5-3 3rd set lead (she served for the win at 5-4) and denying the 20-year old a second straight 4th Round run at a major.



Vekic's last four slams have seen her put up 3r-SF-4r-4r(and counting) results, a 13-3 stretch over four tournaments. She won a total of twelve MD matches in the *fourteen* majors that immediately preceded the current stretch.

...Naomi Osaka's Flower Power Revenge Tour bus blew out a tire in the 3rd Round. More specifically, an ab. If her body had cooperated, things might have been very different (she led Belinda Bencic 4-1 in the 1st, after all), but the injury that knocked her out of the Auckland final (after *winning* the 1st set vs. Tauson) reared its head once more. After Bencic took a 7-3 TB, Osaka retired for the second time already in 2025.



One wonders if it might be smart for Osaka to take some time off after the AO to get right, with an eye on being 100% for the Indian Wells/Miami Sunshine Swing in early spring.

Though she missed all four majors in 2024, Bencic has now reached the Round of 16 at four of the last five she's played.

...is Olga Danilovic finally ready to make a *real* run in a major. The Serb has previously shown well on the big stage, but only once before has reached the second week. On Friday the 23-year reached the 4th Round of a major for the second time in less than a year, after doing so in Paris in '24 on the back of wins over Danielle Collins (#11 seed) and the aforementioned (then unseeded) Vekic.

Danilovic took out #25 Liudmila Samsonova in the 2nd Round, and has now followed up with her third career Top 10 win with an upset of #7 Jessie Pegula by a 7-6(2)/6-1 score.



At one point, Pegula reached the QF three straight years in Melbourne (2021-23), but has exited before the middle weekend (after a 2r loss in '24) in both appearances since then. The veteran Bannerette cracked through her previous slam ceiling (she'd been 0-6 in QF) last year with a run to the U.S. Open final, but her previous second week consistency in majors (second week runs in 6 of 8 from 2022-23) has suffered since the start of last year, going just 4-3 (and missing the '24 RG) outside of Flushing Meadows.

Danilovic stands at an impressive 10-5 in her slam MD career and next faces a third seed (#11 Paula Badosa, who def. #17 Marta Kostyuk in three sets) for a shot at reaching her maiden major QF.







...PAVLYUCHENKOVA BEING PAVLYUCHENKOVA (very, very different from Collins being Collins):




...QUESTION ANSWERED (but we already knew the answer, of course):




...DES DROPPING THE MIC:











=WOMEN'S SINGLES ROUND OF 16=
#1 Aryna Sabalenka/BLR vs. #14 Mirra Andreeva/RUS
#27 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova/RUS vs. #18 Donna Vekic/CRO
#3 Coco Gauff/USA vs. (PR) Belinda Bencic/SUI
#11 Paula Badosa/ESP vs. Olga Danilovic/SRB
x vs. x
x vs. x
x vs. x
x vs. x

=WOMEN'S DOUBLES ROUND OF 16=
#1 Siniakova/Townsend (CZE/USA) vs. x/x
x vs. x
x vs. (WC) Birrell/Gadecki (AUS/AUS)
x vs. Rakhimova/Sorribes Tormo (RUS/ESP)
x vs. #12 Guo Hanyu/Panova (CHN/RUS)
#13 Babos/Melichar-Martinez (HUN/USA) vs. #3 Hsieh/Ostapenko (TPE/LAT)
#7 Muhammad/Schuurs (USA/NED) vs. x
x vs. #2 Dabrowski/Routliffe (CAN/NZL)























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*GIRLS' SINGLES SEEDS*
1. Emerson Jones, AUS
2. Mika Stojsavljevic, GBR
3. Jeline Vandromme, BEL
4. Wakana Sonobe, JPN
5. Teodora Kostovic, SRB
6. Kristina Penickova, USA
7. Tereza Krejcova, CZE
8. Elizara Yaneva, BUL
9. Mimi Xu, GBR
10. Rositsa Dencheva, BUL
11. Jana Kovackova, CZE
12. Alena Kovackova, CZE
13. Vendula Valdmannova, CZE
14. Hannah Klugman, GBR
15. Mika Buchnik, ISR
16. Julia Stusek, GER







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I still have mine, too!







TOP QUALIFIER: Maja Chwalinska, POL
TOP EARLY ROUND (1r-2r): #1 Aryna Sabalenka, BLR
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE ROUND (SF-F): x
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q1 - #20 Maja Chwalinska/POL def. Dominika Salkova/CZE 7-6(3)/5-7/7-6(12-10) - Chwalinska in 3:23, was down a break twice in the 3rd. Salkova served for the win at 5-4, led 7-3 in the deciding MTB and held a pair of MP.
TOP EARLY RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 1st Rd. - #8 Emma Navarro/USA def. Peyton Stearns/USA 6-7(5)/7-6(5)/7-5 - 3:22 between former NCAA champs; Stearns up set and 2-0, up 5-3 in 3rd and served at 5-4; Navarro wins 16/19 points to end
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE RD. MATCH (SF-F/WC/Doub.): x
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: #14 Mirra Andreeva/RUS (def. Marie Bouzkova/CZE)
FIRST SEED OUT: #29 Linda Noskova/CZE (1st Rd.- Tauson/DEN)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Destanee Aiava/AUS (6th MD), Talia Gibson/AUS (2nd MD), Suzan Lamens/NED (1st MD), Rebecca Sramkova/SVK (5th MD)
PROTECTED RANKING BEST: Belinda Bencic/SUI (in 4r) (2r-Birrell/AUS, Kovinic/MNE)
LUCKY LOSER BEST: Eva Lys/GER (in 3r) (2r-Dart/GBR)
UPSET QUEENS: Great Britain
REVELATION LADIES: Germany
NATION OF POOR SOULS: Czech Republic (1-4 1st Rd.; Kvitova/Pliskova/Krejcikova DNP; Vondrousova; Bouzkova First Loss; Noskova First Seed Out; Beljek 0-5 slam MD)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: Destanee Aiava/AUS and Gabriela Ruse/ROU (both 2nd Rd.)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Talia Gibson/AUS, Iva Jovic/USA, Ajla Tomljanovic/AUS(L) and Zhang Shuai/CHN (all 2nd Rd.)
LAST AUSSIE STANDING: Destanee Aiava, Talia Gibson and Ajla Tomljanovic (all 2nd Rd.)
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: Nominee: Danilovic
IT (TBD): x
COMEBACK PLAYER: Nominee: Bencic
CRASH & BURN: #5 Zheng Qinwen/CHN (2r- 2024 finalist and Olympic Gold medalist out in 2 sets vs. Siegemund/GER)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF MELBOURNE: Eva Lys/GER (LL added to MD on Day 3 ten minutes before start of 1r match; reaches 3rd Rd. for first time at a major)
KIMIKO VETERAN CUP: Nominee: Pavlyuchenkova
LADY OF THE EVENING: Nominee: Sabalenka/Dokic
AUSTRALIAN LANGUAGE ARTS AWARD: Nominees: Aiava dons iconic Ivanovic/Sharapova dress designs during Q-run; Sabalenka/Dokic & crowd dance on Laver
DOUBLES STAR: x
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x





All for now. More soon.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 6:23 PM 

2 Comments:

Blogger Diane said...

Thank you. :)

Fri Jan 17, 06:49:00 PM EST  
Blogger Hoergren said...

Nice interpretation of Sabalenka vs Tauson match, Tauson needs a bit more training then she'll beat Sabalenka - cross fingers for a healthy 2025 for Clara. I think Tauson has her best coach yet one who knows her different moods and one who doesn't push her in the wrong direction.

Fri Jan 17, 08:18:00 PM EST  

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