Sunday, January 25, 2026

AO26 - Sabalenka's Vision Remains 20/20

She came. She saw. She won a tie-break. She conquered.




Aryna Sabalenka sits alone atop the women's tennis mountain, but uneasy always lies the head that wears the crown. Even with her position secure, Sabalenka can feel the likes of Swiatek, Gauff and a surging Rybakina looking over her shoulder, not to mention a handful of teens lurking just behind them (along with a veteran or two), seeking a chance to strike.

The world #1 has had quite the past few weeks since rolling out of another big match defeat (in the WTA Final title match) to end '25, taking part in the attention-getting, if ill-conceived (and not asked for nor wanted by anyone with an eye on the general perception of women's tennis), Battle of the Sexes redux, then opening her '26 season with a Week 1 title defense in Brisbane, following by an annoucement this week of a partnernship with Gucci (which will only mean more off-court recognition) and, right in the middle of that, a return to Melbourne, where she'd been unable to complete a three-peat title run a year ago.

Sabalenka's opening rounds this year often displayed her consistent dominance, but also her nagging propensity to suffer in-match lapses, especially when trying to close out wins that suddenly turn from strolls in the park to threats to become fate-testing duels. Still, she'd managed to return to the AO Round of 16 for a sixth straight year without dropping a set (winning a choppy two-TB affair over Anastasia Potapova in the 3rd Rd.), and today was set to face one of those teenagers hoping to make *her* their stepping stone to something greater. In this case, #17 seed Victoria Mboko.

The 19-year old has shown the sort of fortitude and aggressive game that has often allowed her to display her best self in the biggest moments. Ranked outside the Top 300 a year ago, she starred in Montreal last summer with wins over Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Naomi Osaka, and already this year she's dethroned Adelaide champ Madison Keys and will almost assuredly be ranked in the Top 10 sometime this spring. But today the Canadian was facing a world #1 for the first time in her career, in her maiden slam 4th Round appearance, in her first-ever match not just on Rod Laver Arena but on any of the center courts of the four majors.

It was always going to be high mountain to climb, unless Sabalenka helped things along a little.

In the opening game, Sabalenka had a hard time getting her serve to fire, allowing Mboko to jump on her second serve. The teenager had a pair of BP opportunities, but Sabalenka managed to get the hold. It turned out to be Mboko's best and, really, only chance to stay in the 1st set. Sabalenka quickly gained her focus, likely knowing that she was going to need to be on point vs. Mboko lest she allow her to gain momentum and make good on being the true threat that's become over the past year.

It was Sabalenka who grabbed the edge on the scoreboard at 3-1, then consolidated her break lead with a hold from love/30 down. Another break of serve made Sabalenka's lead unreachable. She served out a 6-1 set, having committed just four unforced errors in the first seven games.



Sabalenka broke Mboko's serve again to open the 2nd (a game, BTW, which ESPN totally failed to show, as it was too busy airing needless on-set yapping between Chris Eubanks and new tennis addition Malika Andrews, who I guess has officially replaced Chris McKendry as the regular host -- which can't be a bad thing, and is well past time -- but McKendry is now being heard calling matches, which is somehow almost incomprehensibly worse), and was seemingly cruising to an easy straight sets win, breaking for 4-1 on a Mboko double-fault.

But then it happened again, as Sabalenka's game dipped at just the wrong time with the finish line in sight. Mboko seized the moment, getting one break back to keep a comeback at least slightly viable. Sabalenka held from 15/30 down with consecutive big serves to lead 5-3, but wasn't able to close out the match at 5-4, 40/15 up in a tenth game in which she held three MP. Mboko got the break on her third BP.



Mboko then held to lead 6-5, forcing Sabalenka to serve to stay in the set. But, thing is, Mboko probably needed to *break* in that game to avoid what could/would come next. But she didn't, meaning that Sabalenka got a second chance to finish off the teenager in a tie-break, a part of the game that has become her specialty.

22-2 in breakers in '25, she won 19 in a row at one point, and with her two TB wins in the previous round she'd extended her TB winning streak in majors to a record 19.

Sabalenka's ease in the format was rarely more evident than it was her near whitewash on Mboko in the 2nd set decider, as she played with total freedom and without pressure, hitting out with ease as she confidently built a 6-0 lead. She couldn't get the shutout (and seemed a tad disappointed, for an instant, when she didn't), but did win 7-1 on MP #5 to complete the 6-1/7-6(1) win, extending the slam TB streak to 20. She's reached the QF at her last thirteen majors.



43-2 in hard court majors over the last four seasons, Sabalenka has reached at least the semis in eight straight, and the finals in the last six.



All right, who's next?






=AO NOTES=
...not long afterward, 18-year old Iva Jovic played in her maiden slam Round of 16 match, an encounter between the #29 seed and unseeded veteran Yulia Putintseva. Unlike Sabalenka before her, Jovic took command of the match and then strangled the life out of it with a 6-0/6-1 victory to reach her first major QF. She's the youngest U.S. woman to reach the AO QF since Venus Williams in 1998.

After posting her first career Top 10 win (over Jasmine Paolini) in the 3rd Round, the Bannerette will face off with #1 Sabalenka for a berth in the semis.



...in the final women's Round of 16 match in the day session, #3 Coco Gauff tried to extend her head-to-head edge over #19 Karolina Muchova. Muchova came into the match with a 5-1 mark in majors vs. Top 5 players, and had already recorded a pair of Top 10 wins (in Brisbane) this season before arriving in Melbourne, but the Czech had never before defeated Gauff (0-4).

After a poor 1st set, Muchova rebounded in the 2nd as the two players traded roles from the opening set, with one playing well while the other did not, forcing a deciding 3rd set. But it was there that Gauff reclaimed her early form, breaking for a 3-1 lead and never giving up the advantage. She served out the win by converting her fourth MP of the final game, winning 6-1/3-6/6-3 to reach her third straight AO quarterfinal.



...in the women's 4th Round closer on Day 8 under the lights on Laver, #12 Elina Svitolina kept the total number of teenagers in the QF to one, knocking off #8 Mirra Andreeva 6-2/6-4 to reach her fourth career AO Last Eight.



Had Andreeva reached the QF it would have represented the first time this century that multiple teenagers had reached that stage in the same AO, but instead Svitolina's win means that the thirtysomethings -- w/ the Pegula/Keys winner, as well as possibly Mertens joining the Ukrainian -- won this round of WTA age roulette in Melbourne.

Svitolina has reached at least one major QF in nine of the last ten years, coming up short only in 2022 when she missed the final three majors while on maternity leave. So far, Svitolina has yet to get past this round in the AO (0-3), but has combined for three slam SF at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.

...Bianca Andreescu's eight-match winning streak came to an end in the SF of the $35K in Weston (Fla.) via a three-set loss to 19-year old Bannerette Akasha Urhobo.

Even so, Andreescu's two-week run has lifted her "live" ranking into the Top 190 after she'd sunk outside the Top 225 before her extended trip to the challenger level rather than traveling to Melbourne to participate in AO qualifying. She's scheduled to play in two more small events.





...THE MOST UNIQUE FIGURE IN TENNIS on Day 8:

Does anyone in the sport "take one for the team" better or more often than Sabalenka's fitness coach Jason Stacy?

In the past, he's gotten a temporary tattoo of a tiger on his scalp, had his head signed by Sabalenka, allowed Aryna to "play drums" on his pate for good luck, and now after a training accident saw a mallet hit him in the face, resulting in a black eye and stitches under his right eye, Sabalenka has written "I like pain" under his left eye.

A fitness coach's work is never done.












=WOMEN'S SINGLES ROUND OF 16=
#1 Aryna Sabalenka/BLR def. #17 Victoria Mboko/CANx
#29 Iva Jovic/USA def. Yulia Putintseva/KAZ
#3 Coco Gauff/USA def. #19 Karolina Muchova/CZE
#12 Elina Svitolina/UKR def. #8 Mirra Andreeva/RUS
#6 Jessie Pegula/USA vs. #9 Madison Keys/USA
Wang Xinyu/CHN vs. #4 Amanda Anisimova/USA
#5 Elena Rybakina/KAZ vs. #21 Elise Mertens/BEL
(Q) Maddison Inglis/AUS vs. #2 Iga Swiatek/POL

=WOMEN'S DOUBLES ROUND OF 16=
#1 Siniakova/Townsend (CZE/USA) walkover #15 Kato/Stollar (JPN/HUN)
#7 Danilina/Krunic (KAZ/SRB) def. Hunter/Joint (AUS/AUS)
#3 Hsieh/Ostapenko (TPE/LAT) vs. #13 Kenin/Siegemund (USA/GER)
#5 Dabrowski/Stefani (CAN/BRA)def. #9 Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez (ESP/USA)
Hozumi/Wu (JPN/TPE) def. #8 Perez/Schuurs (AUS/NED)
Baptiste/Stearns (USA/USA) vs. #4 Mertens/Zhang (BEL/CHN)
#6 Muhammad/Routliffe (USA/NZL) vs. (PR) Shibahara/Zvonareva (JPN/RUS)
#16 Guo/Mladenovic (CHN/FRA) vs. (WC) Birrell/Gibson (AUS/AUS)

=MIXED DOUBLES QF=
(WC) Gadecki/Peers (AUS/AUS) vs. x
#4 Townsend/Mektic (USA/CRO) vs. Khromacheva/Harrison (RUS/USA)
x vs. x
x vs. #2 Stefani/Arevalo (BRA/ELS)
















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*AO - MULT. 18u INTO 4th ROUND - since 2000*
2026: M.Andreeva, Jovic
2023: Gauff, L.Fruhvirtova
2020: Swiatek, Gauff
2008: Wozniacki, A.Radwanska, Vaidisova
2006: Vaidisova, Sharapova
2005: Dushevina, Linetskaya, Sharapova
2001: Marrero, Henin, Clijsters, Bedanova
2000: S.Williams, Kournikova

*MUCHOVA vs. TOP 5 AT SLAMS*
2019 Wimbledon 4th - #3 Karolina Pliskova (W)
2021 Australian Open QF - #1 Ash Barty (W)
2022 Roland Garros 2nd - #3 Maria Sakkari (W)
2023 Roland Garros SF - #2 Aryna Sabalenka (W)
2023 Roland Garros F - #1 Iga Swiatek (L)
2024 U.S. Open 4th - #5 Jasmine Paolini (W)
2026 Australian Open 4th - #3 Coco Gauff (L)

*RECENT AUSTRALIAN WOMEN IN AO ROUND OF 16 (since 7-round event in '87)*
1987 QF - Elizabeth Smylie
1987 4th Rd. - Janine Tremelling
1987 4th Rd. - Wendy Turnbull
1988 QF - Anne Minter
1988 QF - Hana Mandlikova
1989 4th Rd. - Nicole Provis
1990 4th Rd. - Rachel McQuillan
1991 4th Rd. - Rachel McQuillan
1993 4th Rd. - Nicole Provis
2003 4th Rd. - Nicole Pratt
2004 4th Rd. - Alicia Molik
2005 QF - Alicia Molik
2006 4th Rd. - Samantha Stosur
2008 4th Rd. - Casey Dellacqua
2009 QF - Jelena Dokic
2010 4th Rd. - Samantha Stosur
2015 4th Rd. - Casey Dellacqua
2016 4th Rd. - Dasha Gavrilova
2017 4th Rd. - Dasha Gavrilova
2019 QF - Ash Barty
2020 SF - Ash Barty
2021 QF - Ash Barty
2022 W - Ash Barty
2026 - Maddison Inglis (in 4th Rd.)

**"FIRST SLAM..." FEATS IN 2020s**
=QF=
2020 AO - Ons Jabeur, TUN (13th slam MD)
2020 AO - Sofia Kenin, USA (12th)
2020 AO - Anett Kontaveit, EST (21st)
2020 US - Jennifer Brady, USA (13th)
2020 RG - Nadia Podoroska, ARG (2nd)
2020 RG - Laura Siegemund, GER (16th)
2020 RG - Iga Swiatek, POL (7th)
2020 RG - Martina Trevisan, ITA (2nd)
2021 AO - Hsieh Su-wei, TPE (38th)
2021 AO - Jessie Pegula, USA (9th)
2021 RG - Paula Badosa, ESP (8th)
2021 RG - Coco Gauff, USA (6th)
2021 RG - Barbora Krejcikova, CZE (5th)
2021 RG - Elena Rybakina, KAZ (7th)
2021 RG - Maria Sakkari, GRE (21st)
2021 RG - Tamara Zidansek, SLO (9th)
2021 WI - Viktorija Golubic, SUI (18th)
2021 WI - Aryna Sabalenka, BLR (15th)
2021 WI - Ajla Tomljanovic, AUS (27th)
2021 US - Leylah Fernandez, CAN (7th)
2021 US - Emma Raducanu, GBR (2nd)
2022 AO - Alize Cornet, FRA (63rd)
2022 RG - Veronika Kudermetova, RUS (13th)
2022 WI - Marie Bouzkova, CZE (14th)
2022 WI - Tatjana Maria, GER (35th)
2022 WI - Jule Niemeier, GER (2nd)
2022 US - none
2023 AO - Magda Linette, POL (30th)
2023 RG - Beatriz Haddad Maia, BRA (12th)
2023 US - Zheng Qinwen, CHN (8th)
2024 AO - Anna Kalinskaya, RUS (14th)
2024 AO - Marta Kostyuk, UKR (16th)
2024 AO - Linda Noskova, CZE (6th)
2024 AO - Dayana Yastremska, UKR (17th)
2024 RG - Mirra Andreeva, RUS (5th)
2024 RG - Jasmine Paolini, ITA (18th)
2024 WI - Emma Navarro, USA (7th)
2024 WI - Lulu Sun, NZL (2nd)
2025 RG - Lois Boisson, FRA (1st)
2025 WI - Liudmila Samsonova, RUS (21st)
2026 AO - Iva Jovic, USA (6th)




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TOP QUALIFIER: Guiomar Maristany/ESP
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #6 Jessie Pegula/USA (lost 5 games in 1r/2r)
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE ROUND (SF-F): x
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2 - Guiomar Maristany/ESP def. Tatiana Prozorova/RUS 6-2/2-6/7-6(10-7) - saved four MP (at 6-5 in the 3rd), reached maiden slam MD
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 1st Rd. - Elsa Jacquemot/FRA def. #20 Marta Kostyuk/UKR 6-7(4)/7-6(4)/7-6(10-7) - 3:31; first three-TB women's match at AO; Jacquemot saves MP in 2nd set, wins 10-7 MTB in 3rd for first Top 20 win
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE RD. MATCH (SF-F/WC/Doub.): x
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: (WC) Talia Gibson/AUS (def. Anna Blinkova/RUS)
FIRST SEED OUT: #26 Dayana Yastremska, UKR (1r- lost to Gabriela Ruse/ROU)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Nikola Bartunkova/CZE (1st slam MD), Linda Klimovicova/POL (1st), Petra Marcinko/CRO (1st), Taylah Preston/AUS (3rd), Oksana Selekhmeteva/RUS (5th)
PROTECTED RANKING BEST: Karolina Pliskova/CZE (3rd Rd.)
LUCKY LOSER BEST: 0-1 in 1r
UPSET QUEENS: The Crush of Czechs
REVELATION LADIES: Australia (6 in 2r most since 1992)
NATION OF POOR SOULS: Russia (4-5 1st Rd.; only 9 in MD after AO-best 9 to 2r in '25; has lost 7 notable players to other nations since '23; lost 2 Top 20 seeds)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: Maddison Inglis/AUS (in 4r)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Talia Gibson/AUS, Priscilla Hon/AUS and Taylah Preston/AUS (all 2nd Rd.)
LAST AUSSIE STANDING: Maddison Inglis (in 4r)
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: Nominee: Jovic
IT (Beloved Turk): Zeynep Sonmez/TUR
COMEBACK PLAYER: Nominees: S.Hunter, Zvonareva, Pliskova, de Groot?
CRASH & BURN: #26 Dayana Yastremska/UKR and #20 Marta Kostyuk/UKR (first two seeds out lose in back-to-back ANZ Arena matches on Day 1
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF MELBOURNE: Maddison Inglis/AUS (saved 2 MP vs. Leyre Gormaz Romero in 3-hr. Q1 match, then won back-to-back 3-hr. matches in 1r/2r en route to maiden slam Round of 16)
KIMIKO VETERAN CUP: Nominees: Venus Williams/USA (at 45 years and 7 months, breaks 2015 record of Kimiko Date as the oldest woman in an AO singles MD match), (wd)
LADY OF THE EVENING: Nominee: Sabalenka
AUSTRALIAN LANGUAGE ARTS AWARD: ["Show Pony Fashion Sense"] Naomi Osaka's jellyfish-inspired, "My Fair Lady" nighttime intro outfit
DOUBLES STAR: x
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x






All for now. More soon.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 9:54 AM 

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