2006 Intriguing Question #3

Dynamic duos are special, as some things just go well together. Venus and Serena. PB & J. Batman and Robin. Pork chops and apple sauce. Brad and Jen... err, I mean Brad and Angelina. Pretzels and beer. Bogie and Bacall. Kim and Justine.

Hmmm... something's wrong there.

Check that last one. "Kim and Justine" is on the wrong list (darned disorganzied files!). That one should be on the one with "apples and oranges," "oil and water," and "George W. Bush and intelligent discourse." You know, things that somehow just miss the mark when it comes to compatible co-existence. Oh, Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin-Hardenne are both female tennis players from Belgium who admired Steffi Graf while growing up... but that's about where the similarities end.

Justine's from the French-speaking southern Wallonia region of Belgium, is happily married to husband Pierre-Yves, plays an often elegant and crafty style of game, likes to listen to Celine Dion music and visit her godfather in Montreal. Kim is from the Dutch-speaking northern Flanders region of Belgium, was infamously engaged to Aussie "bad boy" Lleyton Hewitt ('Nuff said), plays a scrambling game supported by power, likes to listen to Bon Jovi and Destiny's Child and to catch a performance of "Saturday Night Fever" when she's in New York.

Kim once charged Justine with faking an injury during a match and "disrespecting" the sport, while she herself is continually judged the "nicest" player on tour (the U.S. Open Series' marketing morons even dubbed her "Miss Congeniality"). Justine was lambasted for "waving off" a Serena Williams serve at Roland Garros (including in these parts, further proving that no Backspin opinion is unchangable if a player ingratiates herself enough), while Kim won all sorts of plaudits for squeegeeing a wet court a Flushing Meadows.

Oh, and Justine worked tirelessly to overcome her small stature, moving past early career big-match jitters to eventually become "Le Petit Taureau" (The Little Bull) because of her never-say-die, at her best when her back is against the wall in the biggest matches, grand slam champion character traits; while Kim seemed to work overtime to never quite live up to the expectations her talents placed upon her shoulders, gradually building up a history of big-match chokes that left everyone wondering if she'd EVER win a slam title. If Justine was Ms. Gut-check, then Kim was Ms. Chuck-Your-Guts.

Until last year, that is.

3.HAS THE DYNAMIC BETWEEN BELGIUM'S ANTI-"DYNAMIC DUO" CHANGED FOREVER?

In 2005, the tennis dynamic that always had separated the respective careers of Henin-Hardenne and Clijsters changed dramatically. JHH won her fourth slam title at Roland Garros in June, but as injuries once again slowed her in the second half of the season, Clijsters continued her comeback from her own wrist injury to complete her hardcourt tear through the U.S. Open Series and won her first slam title at Flushing Meadows. Earlier in the year, Clijsters had also beaten her Belgian countrywoman (in their only match-up since the '04 Oz final, 24 months ago) to take a 10-9 lead in their career series. As 2005 ended, Clijsters, clearing a hurdle and living up to her talent just as JHH was going through a second straight health-impaired season, suddenly found herself with the upper hand in this sometimes-waffling relationship between Waffles.

Like Venus and Serena, the Belgians will forever be compared. With Clijsters now with a legitimate qualifying checkmark in her career column, have things changed forever between the two? Will they be seen as true equals or, gulp, will Kim surpass "The Queen?"

As tempting as it would be to say yes based on last year's evidence, Backspin's own prejudices on this subject just can't be completely restrained. It was with a grudging, yet respectful, nod that I finally succumbed to the "cult of Clijsters" late in 2005, buried her career albatross in the backyard and dubbed her "Killer Kim"... then in the closing months, with a shot at re-claiming the #1 ranking she briefly held in 2003, Clijsters lost early in Filderstadt and totally bombed out at the WTA Championships. She finished the year at #2 (she had a 66-9 WTA mark) and with a slam title in hand as the "rightful" Player of the Year, but there was a curious feeling of incompleteness surrounding her.

Sometimes self-satisfaction can serve as a slow-acting poison infecting an athlete's competitive drive. The few sharp edges Clijsters might have had could have been dulled by actually reaching the mountaintop last September.

(Needless to say, I'm like a wolf panting at the door of the Three Little Pigs as 2006 begins, ready to blow down the House of Clijsters at the first sign of a crack in the foundation supposedly built at Flushing Meadows. I can't help it. On this issue, I simply enjoy being a contrarian. It's why rather than giving continual pats on Clijsters' back for being "Nice Kim," I prefer to remind everyone of how she bailed on the Belgian Olympic Team in '04 because she didn't want to wear the uniform -- "FilaKim" at her finest, or bring up how she gave her coach a whopping $9000 bonus after winning $2.2 million for claiming the U.S. Open Series and tournament. He's now her ex-coach, by the way. I wonder why?)

Just when Clijsters should be reveling in her accomplishments and plotting greater victories ahead that will build up her career resume, what's she doing? Saying she figures she'll retire by the end of the '07 season. Ahh, the heart of a champion, huh?

Anyone else get the feeling that the only thing Clijsters had left to shoot for was taken care of at Arthur Ashe Stadium, and that it might end up being her career aberration rather than the beginning of a new chapter?

The lack of a continued desire to succeed isn't in Le Petit Taureau's vocabulary. Of course, the phrase "good health" hasn't been there too often the last two years, either. Whether it be cytomegalovirus, a knee or a hamstring, something has always been acting as an anchor on JHH's ambitions since she rose to #1 in late '03. It's a testament to her will that over that period of time she's won two slam titles, an Olympic Gold medal and compiled a 69-9 record in spite of it all. That's what a champion is made of, boys and girls.

So, maybe the dynamic hasn't really changed all that much. One slam might satisfy Clijsters, but four still isn't enough to satiate Henin-Hardenne. It's a fundamental difference in their personalities. You see, there's a reason pageants hand out "Miss Congeniality" titles... it's to give a nod to the "nice girl" since she really doesn't have what it takes to emerge as the "big" winner in the end. Hmmm, maybe those U.S. Open Series marketing morons got one of those nicknames right, after all.

Clijsters has a long way to go to have a career that would match what Henin-Hardenne has accomplished. In truth, she'll never catch up. It's already too late for the dynamic to change.


**BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS**
1.Clijsters will finally get back that #1 ranking sometime in the season's opening months, but she won't hold if for very long.
------------------------
2.She won't win a second slam, either, losing in her one slam final appearance.
------------------------
3.Clijsters will win more titles and finish higher in the year-end rankings than Hein-Hardenne.
------------------------
4.After meeting just once in the last two years, JHH and Clijsters will meet at least three times in '06, with Clijsters winning the "minor" matches, but JHH winning the "biggest"...
------------------------
5. ...namely, in a slam final, as JHH will run her career slam title edge over Clijsters to an "untouchable" 5-1.
------------------------

All for now.

========================
========================

NEXT: Pride, Prejudice... and Mary Pierce

Read more...

2006 Intriguing Question #4

Forget all the stories about the age 30-or-pushing-it veterans that currently populate the WTA theatre, the real longest-running dramatic presentation on tour is the one starring the Williams sisters.

This multi-Act play has been on the receiving end of all sorts of deserving awards over the years, and been on the equally deserving end of some poison-penned reviews, as well. But, through it all, the performances of Ms. Venus & Serena have never been boring or, worse yet, ordinary and inconsequential.

The two have taken turns in the lead role, and often shared both the spotlight and the applause (if not the trophies). But as we begin what is effectively the tenth year of the "Williams Family Production," one wonders how many more Acts this story could possibly have left.

4.WAS 2005's ACT A FINAL WILLIAMS ENCORE, OR THE "OPENING NIGHT" OF A WHOLE NEW PRODUCTION?

We've all been witness to a truly wild ride. The story of the Williams sisters has never, and likely never will come close to being duplicated on such a grand stage as that which the WTA tour has provided since Venus Williams made her slam debut in 1997, and Serena followed a year later in 1998. Seriously, think about all the twists and turns that've taken place. Why, they're worthy of a Quentin Tarantino film, minus any kung-fu action or hypodermic needles to the heart, of course (so far, at least... who knows, Serena's future screen ambitions could end up including one, if not both, at some point).

We've seen Venus rise, then Serena surpass her by being the first sister to claim a grand slam crown ('99 U.S.). We've seen the two of them hold the Top 2 positions in the rankings (2002), and engage in what amounted to a prolonged "Williams Family Invitational" (also known as four consecutive grand slams, and six of the seven slams in which both sisters were entered from 2002-03). Then, as Venus seemed to recede from view (that'll happen to a gal when she loses five straight slam finals to her little sister), Serena literally soared, pulling off a "Serena Slam" and taking five-of-six slam titles over the course of two seasons. She literally had no equal.

Then, inexplicably, Serena lost her focus and ultimately joined Venus on the sidelines, literally (due to injuries), as well as figuratively (18 months went by without Serena winning a slam, while Venus went empty-handed for over three years...a virtual lifetime in tennis, as Martina Hingis might be about to learn the hard way). But, suddenly, almost out of nowhere, just when almost everyone had written off the Williams Era as a tennis relic, they picked themselves up off the hardcourt (and grass) and both claimed slam titles in 2005. It wasn't quite like the "good ol' days," but it was close enough to make everyone remember what they felt like.

Sure, neither put together a viable "Second Act" to their seasons. In fact, both Venus and Serena saw their year-end rankings actually fall despite their biggest fortnights in ages (Venus went from #9 to #10, Serena from #7 to #11). Serena's year turned to dust after winning the Australian Open, as an ankle injury turned into a knee injury following inadequate rehab and Serena's impatience; while Venus' year, which didn't quite take a truly disasterous turn following her SW19 triumph, never seemed to fully recover from her Centre Court joy enough to convince her to realize she still had half a season left to play (after winning seven matches at the All England Club, she won just eight tour matches the rest of the year).

So what now? Were last year's triumphs the final reminders from the sisters of what their respective careers have both been, as well as not been? Not likely, but, as usual, 2006 will probably be another mixed bag. The best bet from here might be one sister following up her 2005 season with a better one in 2006, while the other suffers through an injury-marred campaign that sees her either simply maintain her ranking, or fall a few notches.

Maybe that's the best scenario for all involved, too. After all, no one really thrived when both sisters were on top of their games. All those slam final matchups became a bit monotonous, not so much because no one else played in them (though, a case can be made that the sport suffered because the rest of the field became anonymous, then when the sisters periodically dropped off the radar they left a bunch of no-names -- to the casual fan -- to carry out the day-to-day operations of the tour) as because neither really had their heart in beating the other. The results was usually some pretty lackluster tennis. What should have been a celebration for the sport turned out to be moments that only stand out now because of the specifics of the two participants' births. Of the two, Venus was the least inspired by the situation of having to take someting away from her little sister, so Serena won the "Serena Slam" with Venus going 0-4 against her in the finals during the remarkable run.

And so it goes that, while Serena is the actress, per se... Venus' role in their story has always been the most dramatic, as well as the most sympathetic. She's the one who went from being dominant to playing second fiddle to a person whose diaper she likely once changed. She went from taking pictures of her sister holding up a trophy that could have been her's to losing the aura that once surrounded her.

It's because of that that I've felt for some time now that Venus would be the one of the two who'd be with us longer, who'd stay the most hungry, and who'd work the hardest to reclaim at least a portion of her position on the WTA stage. Serena's commandeering of all the best lines in their script never allowed Venus the chance to "take a bow." The 2005 Wimbledon might just have been the beginning of her long successful kiss goodbye.

Serena is the multimedia star, but Venus is closer to being "just" a tennis player, at least in exclusively athletic terms. The sisters' "For Real" reality series inadvertantly showed Venus to be the one of the two who actually enjoys training rather than complaining, and the one who doesn't take her position for granted. In a way, Serena is built to be a sprinter, but Venus is more capable of resembling a long-distance runner. Serena can still dazzle in a "100m flourish" (Melbourne '05) on sheer ability, but Venus' glory is more likely to come in running and winning the marathon with a greater expenditure of blood, sweat and tears. For example, Serena has won six of her seven slams in a four-year period; while Venus' five have come in a six-year stretch, with a 43-month drought in the middle.

Serena won last year's Australian Open despite not being 100%, or even playing all that well or consistently. She won it on heart, grit and soul born out of having something to prove after going those eighteen months without a slam. That Oz win might just be enough to hold Serena for a while. She proved her point -- she can do it if she sets her mind to it. Wimbledon '05 might not hold the same sway for Venus. Even if she doesn't wear it on her sleeve, the athlete in her has had something to prove since she watched from the stands as Serena won the U.S. Open in '99.

So, 2005 might have been a watershed year in the Williams drama. It might have caused Venus to realize that she can still be the star of this story in the long run. Sure, Serena will stick around and have her great moments, but month after month success and/or health, stringing together full seasons? It's hard to see it happening. Venus, on the other hand, might still have a nice run left in her. Certainly the next few years at Wimbledon, at least. As long as her body doesn't betray her (and it could), who's to say she might not even catch her sister in career slams now that she's proven her slam-winning days aren't behind her? We might be about to flashback to the start when Venus was the dominant character in the Williams story, a full circle trek that would be the only rightful way for the final scenes of this production to play out. Her 2-0 record vs. Serena last year has already given her a head start.

Back in 2000-01, "The Summer of Venus" was in full swing as she won back-to-back Wimbledon & U.S. Open titles two straight years. After last year's Wimbledon, the thought was their that she might have the chance to cobble together a revival. But it didn't happen. It could in 2006, though. With the pressure off, it's hard to believe the joy in her game won't be even more apparent. There's already a sense that the game has a bigger portion of her soul than Serena's (even if she, too, has her own designing business and off-court interests taking up much of her time), as well as a heart that's not so easily distracted.

Of course, it'd be nice if Venus were a bit more gracious in defeat (vs. anyone not named Serena, anyway), and hadn't more than earned her Ferris nickname last year. And it's hard not to wish she realized the existence of the invisible line you shouldn't cross even in victory, too (remember the Wimbledon ceremony?). But I guess we can't have it all. I've made a habit here at Backspin poking fun at her ability to remain singularly oblivious to the niceties of polite tennis etiquette, but after watching the ATP struggle for so long with a perceived "lack of personality," having Venus around is good for everyone. If she were more "perfect" she'd be far less fun. I mean, you just can't hold your breath hoping for Sneaky Patty to take a swing a someone all year long.

So, maybe we are witnessing the "opening night" of a new Williams power play, no matter how long this particular production ends up lasting. But, at least in the short term, the ol' crystal ball says that one sister will win a slam in 2006, and it won't be Serena.

**BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS**
1.It's almost crazy to try to predict what Serena will do. In 2004, I said she'd win two slams and she won zero. In 2005, I said she'd win zero and she blew that one away less than a month into the season. So, I'll bite my lip and do it all over again: no slam for Serena, but she'll reach one slam SF. (Watch, she'll go and defend in Melbourne now.)
------------------------
2.Serena will extend her string of seasons with a title to 8, winning a Tier I somewhere along the way, but having a hard time elsewhere as she battles multiple injuries.
------------------------
3.Serena's ranking will either hold steady or slightly fall, while Venus improves on her #9 standing...
------------------------
4. ...winning a WTA title to stretch her tour-best streak to 9 years...
------------------------
5. ...while defending her Wimbledon title and placing #1 in the U.S. Open Series before having her "Summer of Venus" run cancelled in the U.S. Open final.
------------------------


========================
========================

**WEEK 1...taking the plunge**

...well, the draws are out and it's that time of year again. Time to piece together a fantasy team on Tennis-Pool.com, and try to get off to a better start with my champion picks than I did a year ago. Week 1 is tough, as I've gone 3-1 and 1-3 in picks the past two years. Crossing my fingers...


GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA (III-HO)
05 F: Schnyder d. Stosur
06 TOP: Schnyder/Schiavone
========================
SF: Safina d. Schnyder; Koukalova d. Pennetta
FINAL: Koukalova d. Safina

...I just have to go with a Maiden in Week 1

AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND (IV-HO)
05 F: Srebotnik d. Asagoe
06 TOP: Petrova/Hantuchova
========================
SF: Petrova d. Likhovtseva; Kirilenko d. Hantuchova
FINAL: Petrova d. Kirilenko

..the first test for a no-longer-title-free Petrova. Hingis opens up with Vento-Kabchi in the 1st Round, while Dokic plays Schruff, by the way.

HOPMAN CUP XVIII; PERTH (ITF)
05 F: Slovakia d. Argentina
06 GROUPS: A-Russia,USA,Sweden,Serbia / B-Germany,Australia,Argentina,Netherlands
========================
FINAL: Germany def. Serbia & Montenegro

...I have to go with Girl Friday Groenefeld (& Nicolas Kiefer) in Week 1

HONG KONG (exhibition)
05 F: Dementieva d. Venus
========================
FINAL: V.Williams d. Clijsters

...we might learn more from this event -- which includes Venus, Davenport, Clijsters, Serena, Dementieva, Vaidisova, Mirza & Zheng -- than from all the other tune-up events put together.


All for now.

========================

NEXT: Killer Kim, Le Petit Taureau and the new dynamic

Read more...

2006 Intriguing Question #5

The past two pre-season lists of IQ's put Russians directly in the spotlight. In 2004, Maria Sharapova was the subject of the #1 entry, while the rest of the Russian Horde settled in at #5. Last year, Sharapova repeated in her #1 spot, with the other Russians right behind her at #2. So, here we are, just entering the Top 5 of the 2006 list... and the Russian entry -- just one for the whole bunch of them -- is already here.

Have things changed? Has the Russian influence on the WTA tour already begun to wane?

5.IS THE RUSSIAN REVOLUTION AS DEAD AS LENIN?

As the 2004 season came to a close, everything seemed to be coming easily for the Russians. Throughout the first half of the 2000's, the Horde had been breezing along, each year playing better than the last, placing more members in the Top 100, Top 50, Top 20 and Top 10. The WTA tour seemed a bottomless pot of gold as shiny as a pair of Sharapova's SW19 shoes. That "dream season" included three different Russians being crowned slam champions, new worldwide superstar Sharapova taking the year-end WTA championships, and Team Russia claiming the Fed Cup.

The bigger they are, the harder they fall. I guess everyone should have been expecting what happened in 2005. After all, Russian writers have been penning tales of tragedy for generations. There's a reason the phrase "Russian winter" is designed to have a shuddering effect on the senses. Well, last year the Horde had nothing on Anton Chekhov.

The dip in Russian tennis fortunes wasn't just a matter of numbers, though they may show the stark contrast between 2004 and 2005 better than anything, as the total counts of Russians in the Top 10 fell from 4 to 3, in WTA singles finals dropped from 33 to 17, and as WTA singles titlists shrunk from 15 to 9. But it was on and off-court drama that marked the year that was for the Horde:

2004 Roland Garros champ Anastasia Myskina entered '05 with visions of a #1 ranking in her head, but ended up sleepwalking through matches as her mind was elsewhere with a nude photo lawsuit and her mother's illness causing her to be wishing for matches to end almost as soon as they'd begun. The Czarina's defense of her RG title ended in the 1st Round. '04 U.S. Open titlist Svetlana Kuznetsova opened the year as the subject of a failed drug test rumor, then ended it as a 1st Round loser at Flushing Meadows and without a title to her name. Poor, Contessova.

It didn't end there, either. Two-time 2004 slam runner-up Elena Dementieva went title-less, as well. Elena Bovina was on the injured list for most of the season. Vera Zvonareva always seemed to be on the verge of an emotional breakdown on the court; while Evgenia Linetskaya had a nagging wrist injury and off-court problems that are just too disturbing to go into here.

But with such a vast collection of talent, it wasn't all bad news for the Horde last season. Versatile Nadia Petrova ended the year in the Top 10 for the first time after finally, at 23, claiming her long-overdue first WTA title in Linz. Dinara Safina finally began to look ready to consistently cash in on her genes (at least she's on the court more often than her stunningly-talented-but-even-more-stunningly-flighty big bro' Marat) and the season ranked #20. Maria Kirilenko made her first steps to outdistance the "other Maria" tag by winning her first WTA title in Beijing. By the end of the year, things even began to brighten for the other lagging members of the Horde, too, as Myskina got her head straight, had a great 4Q and won a title, while Dementieva got her "biggest" career win over a striving-for-#1 Kim Clijsters in October.

In the end, though, as Sharapova goes, so goes the Revolution.

After soaring to such heights in '04, 2005 might be seen as a "step down" for the Supernova. But that says more about what's now expected of the 18-year old than anything else. After all, she was briefly ranked #1 in the world (the first Russian woman to do so), won a Tier I and reached three grand slam singles semifinals last year. But the big points that she always seemed to win a year earlier often eluded her last season, beginning when she blew match points against Serena Williams in the Australian Open SF. She was later unceremoniously bageled by Lindsay Davenport in a hardcourt match, and chest and back injuries became a recurring stopper in the final months of the year.

2006 is already beginning on a bad note for Sharapova, as an injury has forced her to pull out of an Aussie Open tuneup, as the tremendous pressure her powerful shots are putting on her lithe body might be taking its toll. Injuries will likely continue to be a lingering problem as '06 goes on as Sharapova might still be in the process of strengthening and conditioning a physique that's changed (she's grown several inches) since she won Wimbledon as a 17-year old. Sharapova will be trying to implement a more aggressive net game into match play this year, something which will likely take some time to perfect. With so much change taking place, 2006 might be an even less successful year for Sharapova than her "quiet" 2005. Oh, she'll still be a solid Top 10 player, maybe even Top 5. But her 2004 slam success won't be replicated in 2006.

But could it be that the next eleven months will only be the calm before the storm? There's certainly precedent for such a theory, played out a few years ago by none other than Serena Williams. During the 2005 season, I made this same comparison... and nothing that's occurred has made me think it still isn't a somewhat likely scenario. Here it is:

Serena won her first slam title earlier than anyone ever expected, as a 17-year old at the 1999 U.S. Open. Sharapova won her first slam title earlier than anyone ever expected, as a 17-year old at the 2004 Wimbledon... Serena went through the next two seasons (2000-01) without winning another slam, as her body and game took some time to get in sync. Sharapova is already half-way through the two-year "drought" period, and might duplicate it as her body and game get into sync over the next year... In the season in which she turned 20 (2002), Serena saw everything come together as she put together one of the sweetest extended runs in tennis history, starting with the U.S. Open that year, she won four straight (for her "Serena Slam") and five of the next six slam championships. In 2007, Sharapova will turn 20 years old.

Could Sharapova, who not ironically defeated Serena to claim her '04 Wimbledon crown, be about to trace directly over the pattern that Serena drew from 1999-03? Will 2007-08 see a new catchy alliterative phrase enter the tennis lexicon as the Supernova shoots for her own chapter in history?

Think about it, come 2007-08, Davenport will likely be out of the sport. Mary Pierce may be, as well. Clijsters, too, if her comments about retirement are to be believed. Amelie Mauresmo will be pushing 30. Venus and Serena? They'll be young enough to be contending for slam titles, but one never knows which version of either will show up from season to season. It could be that, by then, Sharapova could be battling Justine Henin-Hardenne, a few Russians and the current group of up-and-coming teenagers for all the big titles. It'd be hard not to like her chances in those conditions (at every slam other than Roland Garros, at least). 2006 won't be Sharapova's year, but her best could be right around the corner.

The brightness of the far-from-dead Russian Revolution's future hasn't diminished, either. The Revolution isn't over, it's just in a slight "hibernation" phase. Remember, the Horde is still deeper in talent than the fields from any other nation, and will be for quite some time. Even with some of the top players going though '04 without winning titles, there were six different Russian champs in '05 (more than any nation, and with the #2 U.S.'s four including two players -- Davenport and Amy Frazier -- who'll both be 30 by mid-2006). Team Russia defended it's Fed Cup title last year, too. And the ITF tour is already giving signs of the potential of the next wave of "Hordettes," as 16-year old Alisa Kleybanova and 18-year old Elena Tchalova both won three titles.

There are still a great number of thrills to come for the Russians, and for everyone thrilled to watch them try to be great. The breadth of the group's success in 2004 might be difficult to ever match, but rest assured that the future of the Revolution is in good hands.


**BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS**
1.Myskina has already experienced her career-high moment at RG, and in '06 will settle into her career's hand-in-glove position -- good for nipping-at-the-heels of the Top 10 and 2-3 titles. Meanwhile, Petrova, whose varied game is capable of more than she's accomplished to date, will ride her '05 surge to a slam RU result in '06.
------------------------
2.Dementieva will win a Tier I title, but inconsistency and poor slam results will make 2006 an ultimately disappointing year for Punch-Sober
------------------------
3.Over 25 WTA singles finalists will be Russians, and 10 different Horde members will win titles in 2006, including first-timers Anna Chakvetadze and Ekaterina Bychkova
------------------------
4.The number of Russians in the Top 10 will drop to two, Sharapova and Petrova, with Myskina and Dementieva just missing out. Kuznetsova won't "reverse the curse," but she'll slowly regain her footing and begin to somewhat resemble her '04 self again come the U.S. Open Series.
------------------------
5.2006 will be another slam-less one for Sharapova, but she'll reach one slam SF (Wimbledon) and win a Tier I before ending an injury-marred year with a title in the WTA Championships. It'll send her into 2007 on an emotional high. She'll turn 20 mid-way through that season and by the time '08 begins, a new tennis phrase (don't say it too loudly, now...whisper if you have to) will enter the lexicon as she revs up to attempt to make history... can you say, "Sharapova Slam?" (Or, around here at Backspin, "Supernova Slam?")
------------------------


All for now.

========================
========================

NEXT: How many Acts does the Williams story have left?

Read more...

2005 Tennisrulz Reader Awards

Well, the results are finally in. And we have a new "Supernova"... err, I mean "Princess" of the people.

No matter how you look at it, Sania Mirza is a star. So much so, she's "pulled a Sharapova" in the 2005 Tennisrulz Awards voting. A year after the Russian teenager walked away as the winner in a poll-best three categories in both of the last two years, it was the Indian teenager who led the way as a three-time winner in 2005. Sharapova's 2005 haul? Would you believe she didn't win a single category? Fickle are the hands of fate, I guess.

Tennisrulz head honcho Pierre Cantin wishes to send out a big thank-you to all the voters from the 103 different nations who participated in this year's voting, joined in full force (and with obvious effect) by all of you in India, who ranked fourth in total votes cast, behind the U.S., U.K. and Australia). Come on, guys... you can do better than that, right? I mean, Sania didn't win every category she was listed in, so there's still room for improvement.

So, without further ago, YOUR 2005 Tennisrulz Awards winners:

**PLAYER OF THE YEAR**
63%...Kim Clijsters
14%...Venus Williams
9%...Lindsay Davenport
9%..Justine Henin-Hardenne

**BREAKOUT PLAYER**
38%...Sania Mirza
26%...Anna-Lena Groenefeld
15%...Ana Ivanovic

**FAST RISING**
37%...Nicole Vaidisova
14%...Sania Mirza
9%...Anna-Lena Groenefeld
9%...Jelena Jankovic

**NEWCOMER**
26%...Sania Mirza
21%...Nicole Vaidisova
11%...Ana Ivanovic
11%...Sesil Karatantcheva

**MOST IMPROVED**
48%...Daniela Hantuchova
7%...Samantha Stosur
7%...Angela Haynes
7%...Maria Vento-Kabchi

**SURPRISE**
19%...Jill Craybas
14%...Zi Yan
11%...Alona Bondarenko
11%...Samantha Stosur

**VETERAN**
40%...Lindsay Davenport
31%...Mary Pierce
7%...Virginia Ruano-Pascual

**COMEBACK PLAYER**
49%...Kim Clijsters
15%...Venus Williams
13%...Mary Pierce

**DOUBLES PLAYER**
32%...Virginia Ruano-Pascual
29%...Martina Navratilova
7%...Cara Black
7%..Paola Suarez

**DISAPPOINTMENT**
23%...Svetlana Kuznetsova
20%...Vera Zvonareva
17%...Jelena Dokic

**TOP PERFORMANCE**
21%...Venus Williams (Wimbledon)
18%...Kim Clijsters (North American hardcourts)
15%...Mary Pierce (Roland Garros/US Open)

**TOP 15 in 2006**
23%...Sania Mirza
23%...Anna-Lena Groenefeld
15%...Maria Kirilenko


Full results can be found here.

=========================
=========================

[past Tennisrulz Awards winners]

**2003**
Player of the Year: Justine Henin-Hardenne
Breakout: Maria Sharapova
Newcomer: Maria Sharapova
Fast Rising: Maria Sharapova
Most Improved: Shinobu Asagoe
Surprise: Marlene Weingartner
Veteran: Lindsay Davenport
Comeback: Martina Navratilova
Doubles: Kim Clijsters
Disappointment: Daniela Hantuchova
Top Performance: Justine Henin-Hardenne (US Open)
Rebound '04: Jelena Dokic
Breakout '04: Myriam Casanova

**2004**
Player of the Year: Maria Sharapova
Breakout: Maria Sharapova
Fast Rising: Alicia Molik
Newcomer: Tatiana Golovin
Most Improved: Jelena Jankovic
Surprise: Jelena Jankovic
Veteran: Lindsay Davenport
Comeback: Mary Pierce
Doubles: Cara Black
Doubles Team: Ruano-Pascual/Suarez
Disappointment: Kim Clijsters
Missed Most: Kim Clijsters
Top Performance: Maria Sharapova (Wimbledon)
Comeback '05: Kim Clijsters
It Girl '05: Tatiana Golovin
2005 #1: Amelie Mauresmo

Read more...

2006 Intriguing Question #6

Well, you've caught me with my hand in the after-Christmas cookie jar. I admit that the first IQ since the season of fruitcake (love it...really!), family gatherings (ummm...), and gifts (I got The Rivals, the story of the rivalry & friendship between Martina Navratilova & Chris Evert, so expect some thoughts on that to creep in around here as 2006 goes along) has something of a special place in my heart. You see, I've always had a thing for Czechs. Don't know why, really...but Czech players played a large role in the pre-WTA Backspin formulative tennis years for your friendly neighborhood columnist (or it it "blogger," now?) in the 1980's.

I first started to seriously pay attention to tennis right at the time when Czechs were dominant forces on the women's, as well as men's tours. My first true "favorite" player was Hana Mandlikova. I was a late convert to her smooth, athletic all-court game (first being attracted to power, such as that of a teenaged Boris Becker at Wimbledon), but once I tuned into the more elegant aspects of Mandlikova's game I was hooked (and am proud to say I was present in the stands when she won the Washington D.C. crown in 1987 for what would be her final tour singles title). I enjoyed "The Big Cat," Miloslav Mecir (even if he was born in what is now the Slovak Republic, he represented Czechoslovakia at the time), and his deceptively silky movement around the court, too. But it was the Rubik's Cube of tennis psychology, Jana Novotna, who was Backspin's all-timer. The 2005 Hall of Famer's long, tear-stained, pothole-marked path to her ultimate triumph at Wimbledon in 1998 still ranks as one of my most beloved sports viewing experiences, not just because of Novotna herself, but because she was joined in the excitement by her coach... one Hana Mandlikova. To this day, my favorite combination to emulate on court is Novotna's slippery chipped backhand approach shot, followed by a punch volley winner at the net (if I'm lucky). If not for the likes of her, there'd likely be no WTA Backspin, and you might be perusing the wares on SaveManny.com or some other such site.

So it's been heartening to chronicle the steady rise of the young Czech Maidens over the past two seasons. It's been like reconnecting with a special childhood memory. As 2005 neared its end, the Czechs had their own headlining "Supernova-esque" starlet in Nicole Vaidisova, and the growing number of other upcoming countrywomen made it easy to compare the current happenings to the Russian tennis revolution that's changed the face of the sport during the first half of the 2000's. It is true that the Horde and the Maidens do have certain similarities, some of them quite striking.

But...

6.IS THE RISE OF THE CZECHS A RUSSIAN-STYLE REVOLUTION IN THE MAKING?

It's actually oddly easy to match up the roles of the members of the House of Russia with the House of Czech. Just take a look:

**RUSSIAN...to CZECH**
The Forerunner: Olga Morozova ('74 RG/Wimbledon/RU)...Vera Sukova ('62 Wimb.RU)
------------------------
The First Star: Anna Kournikova...Martina Navratilova
------------------------
The New "It" Girl: Maria Sharapova...Nicole Vaidisova
------------------------
The Up-and-Comer: Lucie Safarova...Maria Kirilenko
------------------------
The Late Bloomer: Nadia Petrova...Klara Koukalova
------------------------
The Older Sister: Elena Likhovtseva...Kveta Peschke
------------------------
The Disappointing End: Lina Krasnoroutskaya...Daja Bedanova
------------------------

I could go on (well, for a little while)... but you get the idea. But that sort of thing is more fit for the WTA Yearbook (hint, hint...11 months in advance). Okay, one more:

Best Name Combination: Zuzana (Ondraskova) (Ekaterina) Bychkova

Any more will have to wait. But my point is that it's interesting to compare the tennis homes of the Russians and Czechs -- right down to the competing "ova's" on the mail boxes -- but maybe the question should really be whether or not the "Czech Revolution" is even a "revolution" at all. Unlike Russian tennis, Czech tennis has been in the vicinity of this neighborhood before... and actually resided in even classier digs that the Horde does today, to be honest. There was a time, not that long ago, when nearly all the top players, if they weren't Americans, were Czech-born.

From 1975-93, Czech-born women accounted for 22 slam singles titles and were runners-up 25 other times. Navratilova was #1 for 331 weeks (second-most all-time) and has more singles and doubles titles than anyone in professional tennis history. Mandlikova rose to #3 and won four slams (including pulling off the rare Evert/Navratilova combo in the '85 U.S. Open SF/F). Helena Sukova advanced to four slam finals, and Renata Tomanova played in two. On the men's tour, Ivan Lendl was #1 for 270 weeks (second only to Pete Sampras' 286 in ATP history), and Czech men have won 12 slam titles since 1970.

Navratilova escaped the influence of the USSR's Iron Curtain, defecting from Soviet-controlled communist Czechoslovakia in 1975 (she became a U.S. citizen in mid-1981). It took about fifteen years for it to play out to its conclusion, but it was the beginning of the end of the state-sponsored sports system that had produced so many great champions (a blueprint China is now trying to replicate). As Navratilova's singles career was winding down in the late 1980's, so was the very existence of the Communist Bloc. Ultimately, the Soviet totalitarian state fell in 1991, but it was preceded in revolution by most of its satellite governments in eastern Europe, including Czechoslovakia, which fell in "The Velvet Revolution" in 1989. Not ironically, the end of the line for the Czech power position in tennis ran parallel to the end of Czechoslovakia, which was split into the Czech and Slovak Republics. Wholesale social change -- even when it's for the good -- tends to put a temporary hold on sports. The case of Czech/Slovak tennis was no different, as the continuous line of champions experienced a clean break. Since 1990, only one Czech woman (Novotna - Wimbledon '98) and one man (Petr Korda - Australian '98) have been crowned slam singles champions.

Novotna was the last Czech-born female to end the season ranked in the Top 10. She was #3 in '98, when interestingly enough Martina Hingis finished at #2. Hingis was born in what was then communist Czechoslovakia in 1980, in a city in what is now Slovakia (so, on that and other technicalities, the "Swiss Miss" -- there's another -- doesn't play a part in all this... though her Czech roots, and that she was named after Navratilova, certainly give her strong ties to the "Golden Age" of Czech tennis).

Since 1990, Slovak tennis has only produced one player with what was thought to be "great potential" (Daniela Hantuchova), though the nation has thrived in team competition, winning the Fed Cup in 2002, then being runner-up in the 2005 Davis Cup.

It's taken fifteen years for the Czech tennis machine to gear itself up and spit out potential champions again, but the Czech "retro-revolution" has been steadily picking up steam the last two seasons. In 2004-05, there were more first-time WTA singles champs from the Czech Republic (4) than any other nation (second were Russia and China, tied with 3). In 2005, the country ranked fifth in total singles finalists (with 11, behind powers Russia, Belgium, France and the U.S.), with three players splitting a total of seven titles.

At the leading edge of the surge was 16-year old Vaidisova, who won three straight titles late in '05 (already giving her five for her career), while Klara Koukalova, 23, and Lucie Safarova, 18, won two apiece after entering the season having never won a WTA title. Safarova was one of only two players last year who claimed singles titles on both the WTA and ITF tours. Iveta Benesova, 22, was a first-time champ in 2004, while 20-year old Petra Cetkovska claimed six ITF crowns last season (third-best in '05). As of now, only #15 Vaidisova is ranked in the Top 20, but she'll be shooting to become the first Czech Top 10 player since Novotna by mid-season. The 2005 WTA season ended in November with a total of four Maidens in the Top 50, two more in the Top 100, and a whopping nine more in the Top 200 (while Cetkovska was nestled in at #201).

It's just the beginning... but it's not a "revolution," per se. Unlike the Russians, the Czechs have already flooded the tennis marketplace with talent once. Now they're just rediscovering their roots as the back half of the 2000's begins next week. Czechs changed the landscape of the sport almost thirty years ago, but can they do it again? Vaidisova will certainly play a vital (and big -- she'll be the subject of her own IQ later this week) role, but this first wave of Maidens might not have the same effect on the upper echelon of the game that the members of the Horde did. But, then again, wasn't it just a few seasons ago that we were debating whether the Russians' role on tour was a case of "quantity over quality?"

The Czech tennis comeback, a "Resurrection" rather than a "Revolution," is still in its infancy. But by the end of 2006, it'll have its first bona fide world star, and a solid foundation for even greater accomplishments down the road. Who knows, come 2010, the second "Golden Age" might be a reality.

**BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS**
1.The Resurrection will be in full swing in '06 as the total number of Maiden appearances in finals will jump from 11 in '05 to more than 15, putting the Czechs in direct competition with the Russians for most on tour
------------------------
2.They'll claim at least 11 titles...
------------------------
3. ...two of which will go to first-time champ Petra Cetkovska and vet Kveta Peschke (her first since '98)
------------------------
4.But the leader of The Resurrection -- Vaidisova -- will climb the mountain quicker than anyone, moving into the Top 10, even ahead of Sharapova at some point during a season...
------------------------
5. ...in which she'll claim at least 5 titles and -- I may as well walk the plank on this so I can shout about it if it actually happens -- (drumroll, please)... will reach her first grand slam singles final. (Put that in your pipe and smoke it.)
------------------------

All for now.

=======================
=======================

NEXT: In 2005, Chekhov had nothing on the Russian girls. Will the same hold true in 2006?

Read more...

2006 Over/Under

Numbers. Numbers. When push comes to shove, it's all about the numbers, isn't it? Sometimes they're a bit over the norm. Sometimes they're a bit under it. Sometimes they push right up against the average.

Therefore, it's time for Backspin and Tennisrulz head honcho Pierre Cantin to weigh in with some theories on a few of the more pressing WTA issues of 2006, as well as a few not-so-pressing ones. Over, under or push... we decide:

The number of...

Ridiculous Venus Williams excuses for losses (3)...Backspin: Over/Pierre Cantin: Over
------------------------
Serena Williams injuries (2)...B: Over/PC: Over
------------------------
Slam titles won by a Williams sister (1)...B: Push/PC: Under


Weeks Kim Clijsters will be ranked #1 (22, of a 45-week season)...B: Under/PC: Under
------------------------
Weeks Lindsay Davenport will be ranked #1 (22)...B: Over/PC: Under
------------------------
Weeks someone other than Clijsters or Davenport will be #1 (11)...B: Under/PC: Over
------------------------
Weeks #42 Vera Zvonareva will spend in the Top 20 (10)...B: Under/PC: Under


Singles titles won by Jennifer Capriati (1)...B: Push/PC: Under
------------------------
Singles titles won by Martina Hingis (1)...B: Over/PC: Over
------------------------
Doubles titles won by Martina Navratilova (2)...B: Over/PC: Under


Jelena Dokic total slam match wins (4)...B: Over/PC: Under
------------------------
Damir Dokic rants in Serbian press (2)...B: Under/PC: Under


Sania Mirza effigy-burning incidents (1)...B: Push/PC: Over


Americans under 25 in WTA singles finals (1)...B: Over/PC: Over
------------------------
Times replay will be used in U.S. Open women's final (1)...B: Push/PC: Under


Singles titles won by Czechs (8)...B: Over/PC: Under
------------------------
Singles titles won by Russians (9)...B: Over/PC: Over
------------------------
Singles titles won by Chinese (2)...B: Under/PC: Over


Justine Henin-Hardenne wins over Kim Clijsters (1)...B: Push/PC: Over
------------------------
Kim Clijsters wins over Justine Henin-Hardenne (1)...B: Over/PC: Over


Weeks Cara Black will be ranked #1 in doubles (22, of 45-week season)...B: Under/PC: Push
------------------------
Weeks Samantha Stosur will be ranked #1 in doubles (22)...B: Over/PC: Push


WTA matches played by Monica Seles (1)...B: Under/PC: Under
------------------------
WTA doubles matches played by Anna Kournikova (2)...B: Over/PC: Under


Singles titles won by Nicole Vaidisova (4)...B: Over/PC: Over
------------------------
Singles titles won by Anna-Lena Groenefeld (1)...B: Over/PC: Over
------------------------
Singles titles won by Nadia Petrova (1)...B: Over/PC: Over
------------------------
Singles titles won by Daniela Hantuchova (1)...B: Under/PC: Push


#1 vs. #2 match-ups (2, after there were zero in '05)...B: Over/PC: Over


Singles titles won by players age 30-or-over (7)...B: Over/PC: Over
------------------------
Singles titles won by players age 18-or-under (7)...B: Over/PC: Under


Slam finals appearances by Mary Pierce (2)...B: Under/PC: Under
------------------------
Slam finals appearances by Amelie Mauresmo (1)...B: Push/PC: Push
------------------------
Slam SF-or-better results by Maria Sharapova (2)...B: Under/PC: Push


It should be interesting to grade out this pre-season exam when things are all said and done, huh? Place your bets...now!

All for now.

========================
========================

NEXT: "2006 Dumpers & Slumpers"... Christmas cheer, Christmas schmeer -- let's take a look at who's going to get a few lumps of coal in their stocking in '06.

Read more...

2006 Dumpers & Slumpers

For every yin there is a yang. For every player who rises, there's another who must fall. The other side of the coin doesn't have to be ugly, mind you (remember, Serena won a slam in '05 but saw her year-end ranking fall from the previous season)... it just might not glow with quite the same pristine shine it did a short time ago. But things can change quickly on the WTA tour (remember when Hantuchova was "the next great champion?"), so everything is subject to amendment on or off-court. But in keeping with the holiday cheer (or maybe not), here are a few who might find a few lumps of coal in their stockings in 2006:

**TOP 20**
#4 Maria Sharapova...for most everyone else, the "transition year" that Sharapova could experience in '06 would be a "career year." But the Supernova's expectations are always exquisitely high, and injuries are starting to cut her down to size (well, at least a little).
------------------------
#12 Nathalie Dechy...quietly, she's the French #3 and almost a Top 10 player, but when has she ever won a truly BIG match? Her only title was at Tier III Gold Coast in 2003.
------------------------
#13 Francesca Schiavone...she's still looking for a title at age 25. There has to be an unkind reason for that locked somewhere inside the Italian, right?
------------------------


**EUROPE**
Vera Zvonareva...she's been passed by most of her Russian contemporaries, and might have a hard time keeping a step ahead of her Hordette juniors, too.
------------------------
Tatiana Golovin...will the real Frussian Pastry please stand up. It's either the promising star of '04, or the Sophomore slumper of '05.
------------------------
Conchita Martinez...everyone has to slow down at some point. Age 34 might finally be the end of the line for the '94 Wimbledon champ.
------------------------


**ASIA/PACIFIC**
Na Li...consistently underachieves, and is often beaten by other "inferior" Cookies (Zheng, Yan) in big matches Li is "supposed" to win.
------------------------
Alicia Molik...damned illness! At least the Steamer has a good attitude about it all, not to mention an eye toward 2007.
------------------------


**NORTH/SOUTH AMERICA**
Chanda Rubin...her body never allowed her to live up to her talent, but her sharp mind and good heart more than compensated. Take a little side trip to her WTA bio's "Personal" and "Awards" sections, and read it in awe.
------------------------
Jill Craybas...I don't think she'll ever beat Serena at Wimbledon again, or anywhere else, for that matter.
------------------------
Fabiola Zuluaga...okay, I know she's retired. But I needed someone from South America.
------------------------


**EX-SLAM CHAMPIONS**
Monica Seles...sometimes, there are no "soft landings" to be found. No matter, Seles has built up such a reserve of appreciation and goodwill that no one will hold most of the last decade against her.
------------------------
Svetlana Kuznetsova...well, not really. I think I'm just trying to reverse the curse.
------------------------


**AND FINALLY...**
Sesil Karatantcheva...well, you know, unless she's NOT cut down to size by the now-annual early season drug test rumor (from "Kuznetsova Curse" to "Karatantcheva Curse?").

Oh, brother.

(weird, that one sounds vaguely familiar)


All for now.

=======================
=======================

NEXT: Of Czechs and Russians (revolutions, that is)

Read more...

2006 Intriguing Question #7

A wintry wind had blown across the German tennis landscape since 1999, ever since the Golden child-turned-woman made her last grand stand on the stained earth of Paris. For nearly six years, the throne from which the legend once scrutinized her kingdom had been vacant. In the years that followed her exit, German women performed nary a solitary act that qualified any single one as her suitable successor.

The German tennis establishment searched high and low for a worthy substitute, seemingly to no avail. Individuals were collected from the far reaches (I don't think anyone traversed the Tibetan mountainside during the quest, but you never know). Many were discarded, while a few were passed through to "the next phase" of identification. But no one was sure of what had been found in the quest until a sage elder from a far off land -- herself a former queen -- helped to focus German eyes in the direction of a single candidate. Soon it was confirmed that the girl in question was indeed "the one" -- the heir to the treasure of all German tennis treasures.

"Call off the search," said the Bavarian gentleman with the half-smoked stogie balanced perfectly on his lower lip. "We've found her. Bring her here. She must be introduced to her subjects."

Then, out of the mist of Nordhorn, the charge appeared like a vision of days gone by (well, either that or as the image of an odd Dokic/Bovina amalgam). Immediately, it was apparent that she was not an apparition at all, but was made of real flesh and bone.

"What's your name, fraulein?," the Bavarian asked.

"Anna-Lena," the young woman replied in a low, but clear voice that revealed her youth... but also her promise.

"Then let it be known that you have arrived. Go forth and receive your public. Allow them to embrace you as they did our dearly-departed queen," he said, nudging the girl toward the curtain stretched in front of a balcony overlooking the packed city square.

Tentatively, Anna-Lena stepped forward, striding past the curtain with a new purpose... toward her destiny. She was the successor to Steffi the Great. The long search was over.

But was it?

7.HAS THE HEIR TO STEFFI'S GERMAN THRONE BEEN FOUND?

If Sania Mirza, the subject of yesterday's IQ is renowned for being "the first," then 20-year old Anna-Lena Groenefeld is hereby christened as "the next." And she has quite an act to follow.

German tennis great Steffi Graf, Frau Agassi to the uninitiated among us, is rivaled by only Martina Navratilova for the title of the "best ever" in women's tennis history. At the time of her dominance (at least both before and after the too-short Seles Era), it was sometimes monotonous to watch Graf thrash one opponent after another en route to 107 career titles (3rd all-time) and 377 weeks at #1 (the most ever). Since then, the stature of the player who was dubbed "Fraulein Forehand" by the inimitable Bud Collins has grown to almost mythic proportions. In an age when it's a legitimate question whether any female player will ever win as many as 10 slam titles in her career, the 12-year period during which Graf won 22 (2nd all-time to Margaret Court's 24) now seems an unfathomable fantasy.

The time during which a wiry 13-year old Graf's slam career began in 1983, then ended at age 30 just months after winning the '99 Roland Garros title over a not-long-for-the-tennis-world Martina Hingis (until now, that is) went by in a flash. And when Graf was gone, all of German women's tennis seemed to virtually go dark, as well.

You'd think a nation of 82 million people would have produced a certifiable contender by the end of Graf's WTA run (not to mention the concurrent career of one-time ATP #1 Boris Becker), but it didn't happen. The closest anyone came was Anke Huber, who won 12 career titles and reached a slam final (losing in Oz 6-4/6-1 to Seles in '96), but was never a a reliable player of significance over the course of her career. At this time last season, half a decade had passed without an authentic German girl appearing on the horizon with enough talent to resurrect all the old images of a 17-year old Graf raising her first slam trophy at Roland Garros in '87. It was a remarkable thing, really... and during last year's IQ's I joked about when was the last time anyone had seen a German with #1 potential who wasn't named Graf.

But little did Backspin know that Groenefeld was lurking in the weeds, ready to slowly begin to stand up to her full 5-feet, 11-inch (1.80m) height as the 2005 season progressed. The five-year old Anna-Lena was first introduced to tennis by her father and brother at an athletic club around the corner from their home, and fifteen years later she's ready to step up to the WTA mike and belt out a tune with her racket. By the end of 2006, everyone will be standing up to take notice.

Hints of the promise were there all along, I suppose. Groenefeld rose to #1 as a junior in 2003, and that year made her tour debut in Bol, where she held a match point against Vera Zvonareva. But going into 2005, ALG's biggest career win had only come against then world-#66 Lubomira Kurhajcova in 2004.

Last season's success happened on a low trajectory, as Groenefeld showed promise without necessarily garnering great wins, but "earned her wings" in Fed Cup action, steadily gaining consistency as the season grew older. She advanced to her first WTA singles final in Pattaya in February, and in July got her first #1 "win" over Lindsay Davenport when the American retired with an injury with ALG up 5-0. By mid-season, she'd become Backspin's "Girl Friday," showing signs that she may be able to perform the task of connecting a direct line from the present-day WTA world to that of twenty years ago, with an appropriately German twist. And, boy, did Groenefeld ever live up to the hype.

In September, she advanced to back-to-back Tier II finals in Beijing and Luxembourg, where she'd also upset Top 10er Nadia Petrova. In Moscow in October, Groenefeld was throttling then-#1 Maria Sharapova 6-1/4-2 before turning her ankle and being forced to retire from the match on the doorstep of her career's first "bright lights, big city" moment (she would have been the only player last season with wins over two different #1-ranked players). By season's end, she'd raised her ranking from #75 to #21, and was in and out of the doubles Top 10, as well.

Which brings us to the "elder" I talked about earlier.

Ironically, it had been Navratilova, the player Graf dethroned on her way to the top ranking in '87, who managed to earmark Groenefeld for success early last season, causing Backspin's and others' eyes to turn her way. After having shown that she had quite the eye for talent by handpicking doubles partner Svetlana Kuznetsova and teaming with her for the year prior to the Contessova's 2004 U.S. Open title run, Martina tied her ongoing '05 doubles career to Groenefeld, another teenager with a complimentary game powered by strong and aggressive groundstrokes. Their pairing paid dividends for Navratilova as the two teamed to win the Tier I Toronto crown, but the experience of playing side-by-side with a legend might end up helping Groenefeld even more, just as was the case with Kuznetsova. Three inches taller than the Russian, and armed with a bigger serve, Groenefeld seems to only need to garner more experience and seasoning before she'll be capable of, dare I say it, success not seen from a German tennis star since... well, Steffi Graf.

There's still work to be done before that can happen, but the tools are there for Groenefeld to become the next German grand slam champion. Kuznetsova thanked Navratilova when lifting her first slam trophy, and ALG might very well be doing the same one day... maybe a great deal sooner than anyone thinks. Graf used her forehand to climb to great heights, but Groenefeld will use her serve. It could develop into the best point-starting (and ending) shot in the women's game, and that's enough to lead to great things even without the additional "unofficial" coaching/mentoring of Navratilova. With it, who knows what'll happen. Remember, the equally-rangy, but less-athletic Davenport won three slam titles at roughly the same age (22-23) mainly because of the sometimes-lethal nature of her serve. As things stand now, Groenefeld is still looking for a breakthrough moment, be it winning her first WTA singles title (she was 0-3 in finals in '05) or a major upset at a grand slam. Whenever it comes, though, her career could change markedly soon after as her confidence spikes. If it comes early in '06... look out, this could be a monster season for Backspin's (and Germany's) Girl Friday.

So, yes, the search is over for Steffi's successor, and the best is yet to come in this story. Groenefeld's WTA bio says that she admires Graf. Hmmm, maybe Fraulein Forehand will soon reflect a little of that praise back in the direction of her heir. Imagine it... one day Graf and Navratilova's eyes may meet in the stands as they both watch with pride the new champion that they both played at least some part in building. Ah... I think that'd be what would be referred to as the tennis world truly coming full circle. It'll be a great day.

**BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS**
1.Groenefeld will win her first three WTA singles titles, one of which will be a Tier I level event
------------------------
2.She'll advance to at least a slam QF (and might even play on one of the four biggest Saturday's of the WTA season)
------------------------
3.Along the way, she'll finally claim that overdue win over Sharapova, too...
------------------------
4. ...as she rises into the Top 10 in singles...
------------------------
5. ...and Top 5 in doubles, where she'll help Navratilova win yet another slam crown
------------------------

All for now.

========================
========================

NEXT: "2006 Over/Under," as well as "2006 Dumpers & Slumpers." Yes, two Backspin presents for the price of one on Christmas day. Now don't say I didn't give you anything.

Read more...

2006 Intriguing Question #8

Many high-profile athletes are held in high esteem largely because of their fame and the vicarious glow their fans attain as they bask in their "hero's" accomplishments. They're honored, admired and judged to be "groundbreakers" simply because of the physical feats they're able to perform.

While not unworthy of respect, most also aren't so unique that they're rightfully qualified to be placed in a "special" category. They win. They lose. Their "unbreakable" records are broken. Life goes on, and their footsteps gradually disappear from the landscape. Occasionally, some sports stars ARE inspirational, and a few are even courageous under certain personal circumstances. Still fewer have the type of long-range societal influence as someone such as, say, Arthur Ashe. In this day and age of been-there, done-that disposable instant gratification, one's tempted to say the likes of that importance will never appear again. After all, we are just talking about sports, right?

But not so fast, Vegemite breath (sorry, just getting ready for Oz)... for in 2005 we all met the "Indian Princess." And she may just be the real deal.

8.COULD 1,000,000,000 INDIAN FANS BE WRONG?

Certainly not, right? Surely that many people know a star when they see one, and women's tennis has become a virtual breeding ground for them in the internet age, from Kournikova to Hantuchova to Sharapova... and, now, to teenage Indian sensation Sania Mirza. But the 19-year old is not your everyday #4-ranked athlete on the Yahoo! Buzz meter. She's much more intriguing than that. In fact, she's the very definition of the word.

Back home in India, Mirza's an unquestioned superstar of the highest order. Like a movie queen, she enlists bodyguards for crowd control. Her image is ever-present in ads and she's lent a hand to all sorts of goodwill endeavors, such as the "Save the Child" campaign which seeks equal treatment of girls and boys in Indian society. She's a big personality in a nation chocked full of people.

But that's not all.

As a practicing Muslim, she's a walking contradiction in a religion that traditionally places women in subjective roles. Thus, a young female athlete whose profession virtually requires her to wear "revealing" short sleeves and skirts in public is an easy target for fundamentalist groups and ultra-orthodox clerics to knock down as a "corrupting influence" on the nation's youth. And they have, as fatwahs have been issued against her, her image burned in effigy, and her comments on topics such as teen sex not unexpectedly misconstrued and protested in a violent fashion. It's all a bit more than a teen tennis star should have to endure, but such is the situation Mirza finds herself in as a "voice of a generation," with so many hanging on every word out of the mouth of the "new face" of young Muslim women in sports, as well as society in general. And what a face it is. Undeniably camera-friendly, Mirza is indeed a supernova (lowercase "s") when it comes to Sharapova-style endorsement contracts back home (and likely elsewhere very soon).

She'd be a curious novelty if she were just your "average" Indian teenager, not able to harbor widespread influence but sure to rankle those just outside her immediate inner circle. On a personal level, it's fairly clear she has a certain "it" factor. And she carries it over to the court. Oh, that's right... I almost forgot, she's pretty adept with a tennis racket in her hand, too. That's what makes her even more intriguing -- she's a big personality with an equally big shot.

Which brings us to the other side of the Princess Sania story.

Backspin wouldn't even be talking about Mirza at all if, to be blunt, she didn't hit the snot out of a tennis ball with the best of them, as she showed in spurts during matches with the likes of Sharapova and Serena Williams last year. In 2004, she led the ITF circuit in singles titles (winning a weekly "Fresh Face" award in Week 42), then began '05 by advancing to the 3rd Round of the Australian Open, a first for an Indian woman. By the end of the year, she'd risen from #206 to #31 (the biggest jump of any Top 50 player last season), became the first Indian woman to win a WTA singles title (at her hometown tournament in Hyderabad, where it was theorized in these parts that we might be witnessing the birth of an "Indian Supernova"), then became a true worldwide star during the first week of the U.S. Open by reaching the Round of 16 and entertaining everyone with her piercing honesty, numerous piercings (her prominent nose ring being one of several) and cheeky slogan-bearing t-shirts ("Well-behaved women rarely make history" being one of the more telling examples).

But is her game good enough to climb a tennis ladder loaded with Russians and Czechs and veterans (oh, my!)? Well, while she's as hard-hitting as anyone, her game is on the one-dimensional side (think Jelena Dokic, circa 1999-00 before her game hit a wall, and then her life followed suit). Against Sharapova in the U.S. Open last September, Mirza was somewhat out of her league against the "original 'Nova." Barring injury, she's probably good enough to reach the Top 20 even without a "Plan B" on matchday, but she might be able to one day reach the Top 10 if she makes the right decisions regarding her coaching and training, and doesn't let the whirlwind that surrounds her accomplishments and controversies overwhelm her concentration. Needless to say, it was a good sign that Mirza followed up her breakthrough season by going out and forging a relationship with Tony Roche, a man who's offered his assistance to no less than the likes of Ivan Lendl and Roger Federer (who've combined to be ranked #1 for a total of 370 weeks -- that's over seven years -- during their careers). It says a great deal about where the Indian Princess wants to go... and her decision-making process when it comes to getting there.

So far so good. Now comes the balancing act.

Mirza will continue to break down barriers and do her own small (and large) part in cultivating a better understanding between the Muslim faith and the rest of the world, while hopefully helping to unite the sometimes fiercely opposing viewpoints within Islam inside her own nation, as well. But her tennis is her ticket. Her toil and sweat is the price of her admission into any "real world" discussion. The sport has presented Mirza with a huge platform on which to enact her own brand of change within her society, but she should never let that fact either cloud or solely guide her judgment or actions. Her athletic talents have given her the chance to be so much more than just a tennis player, and her accomplishments on the court will only give added weight and shine more attention on whatever honorable civic endeavors she might undertake down the line. So she needs to keep her wits about her and nurture that talent. It can only lead to good things for many people, not the least of which is a certain Princess.

She's just a girl, really... but one with a big opportunity to leave footsteps that won't disappear from the landscape for quite some time.

Who knows exactly down which path Mirza's career will ultimately go. Will she forever be a big personality with a big shot, or a big-time player with an equally large personality? Will we always look at her, squint real hard, and still see Dokic (minus the maniacal dad, but with the maniacal clerics instead...plus a few more piercings and a more openly visible sense of the bizarre)? Or will she draft an even more intriguing conclusion to her own story, even more unique than the chapters that have already been written? Truthfully, Mirza is young enough that things could go either way... and 2006 will be an important year for her. This season will be a learning one for the Princess. One in which she'll have to learn to modify her game to move beyond her shear ability to whack the ball around the court, learn to withstand the new pressure that she'll face due to her new and higher expectations, and learn to finesse (and maybe even avoid?) the various controversies that will surely pop up along the way.

Mirza is no Dokic (her stable family situation provides her with a support system that won't germinate Debutante-style calamity), but she's no Sharapova, either. She's Princess Sania, not a future #1 nor probably a consistent Top 10 threat, but a player who could spend a good portion of a long and prosperous career in the Top 20, giving her all the potency of influence she'd need to foster change both within and outside of the Indian and Muslim communities in which she was raised.

And that's not such a bad prospect.

So, apparently, sometimes physically-gifted groundbreakers can be inspirational. I guess 1,000,000,000 Indian fans can't be wrong.


**BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS**
1.Mirza will claim two more singles titles in 2006
------------------------
2.She'll match her career-best Round of 16 slam result, maybe more than once
------------------------
3.At least one win will come over a Top 5 player...
------------------------
4. ...and she'll spend the final months of the season edging in and out of the Top 20. In eleven months, Mirza's tennis future will look even brighter than it does right now.
------------------------
5.Plus, she'll learn to watch her tongue (a little), but won't lose her refreshing personal honesty (hmmm... maybe she can talk to Sesil about a few things, too, huh?)
------------------------

All for now.

========================
========================

NEXT: Has Steffi's successor finally been indentified?

Read more...

2006 Movers & Shakers

Who's making a move in the tennis world? Who's about to shake up the tour in a big way in 2006? Here are a few of the players who might be the "Movers & Shakers" we'll be talking about over the next eleven months:

**TOP 10**
#9 Nadia Petrova...her first title in '05 could boost her confidence to new highs in '06
------------------------
#6 Mary Pierce...she wants to shoot for #1, but can her body hold up to the pressure of doing it?
------------------------
#8 Elena Dementieva...that serve always shakes things up, even if it's sometimes Punch-Drunk herself who's a little dizzy in the end
------------------------

**TOP 11-20**
#15 Nicole Vaidisova...look out Pompeii! Vesuvius is about to blow! Consider yourselves warned.
------------------------
#14 Anastasia Myskina...with a clearer head, will bad times become a blur?
------------------------
#16 Ana Ivanovic...still looking to discover that elusive consistency gene
------------------------
#20 Dinara Safina...do you believe she STILL hasn't turned 20?
------------------------

**TOP 21+**
#21 Anna-Lena Groenefeld...follow Martina N.'s lead and buy stock in Girl Friday's future
------------------------
#25 Maria Kirilenko...but she'll never really escape the other Maria's shadow
------------------------
#31 Sania Mirza...the new Dokic? Here's to keeping her head a bit better than the Debutante, though, okay?
------------------------

**EUROPE**
Anna Chakvetadze...I picked Anna C. to make a slam SF in '05. Maybe I was a year too early?
------------------------
Daniela Hantuchova...if Wonder Girl doesn't get her first title since '02 this year, she may never do it at all
------------------------
Anabel Medina-Garrigues...maybe the most underrated all-surface player on tour
------------------------
Elena Bovina...remember her? A return to health might bring a return to the Top 20.
------------------------
Ekaterina Bychkova...no pun intended, Bychkova might be set to be the next Russian to make a name for herself. Her upset of Kuznetsova at Flushing Meadows might have been a preview of things to come.
------------------------

**ASIA/PACIFIC**
Samantha Stosur...her doubles play is great, and her singles results are getting better. The former might end up helping the latter, too.
------------------------
Shuai Peng...the most talented physical threat in the Cookie jar
------------------------
Jelena Dokic...she HAS to lift her ranking way up in '06 -- from #349. Right? Of course, I thought that when she ended 2004 at #125, too.
------------------------
Tiantian Sun...'05 signs point to her being in the second wave of Chinese champs
------------------------
Zi Yan...her Guangzhou title wasn't a fluke
------------------------

**NORTH/SOUTH AMERICA**
Gisela Dulko...she took a curious slight step back in 2005
------------------------
Ashley Harkleroad...out of the view of the cameras, she righted what was a sinking ship not long ago
------------------------
Alexa Glatch...might be the last best American hope this decade
------------------------
Jessica Kirkland...unless the OTHER last best American hope before Glatch finally lives up to the title
------------------------
Aleksandra Wozniak...yes, a Canadian teen WAS a top junior last year. Does anyone remember Carling Bassett as fondly as Backspin does?
------------------------

**AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST**
Shahar Peer...look out Smashnova, this will soon be the new Israeli #1
------------------------
Cara Black...should fight Stosur all season for the #1 doubles ranking
------------------------

**ITF RISERS**
Petra Cetkovska...looking to join the other Maidens on the big tour
------------------------
Kristina Barrois...led the ITF in singles titles in '05, for what it's worth
------------------------
Romina Oprandi...ditto
------------------------
Sanja Ancic...can Mario's little sister win anything OUTSIDE of Croatia?
------------------------

**JUNIOR JUMPERS**
Viktoria Azarenka...dominated the girls in both singles and doubles
------------------------
Alisa Kleybanova...the best of the Russian "Hordettes"
------------------------
Agnes Szavay...she was Kournikova to Azarenka's Hingis during their junior careers
------------------------

**AND FINALLY...**
Sesil Karatantcheva...well, you know, unless she's cut down to size by the now-annual early-season failed drug test rumor (from the "Kuznetsova Curse" to the "Karatantcheva Curse?")

Oh, brother.


All for now.

========================
========================

NEXT UP: 1,000,000,000 Indian Fans Can't Be Wrong. She might not be "The King", but the Princess is certainly intriguing.

Read more...

2006 Intriguing Question #9

If 2005 was "The Year of the Comeback," what's to be made of 2006? Martina Hingis' is just one of several recovery stories that could provide a slew of remarkable headlines this season and could make the last one look like an unsold TV pilot (not enough drama!). Truly, the plotlines are almost too good to be true. Every one has the potential to rise to the level of "The Greatest Show on Earth." But they can't possibly muster up to a ringmaster's overstatement. Right?

9.IF IT'S NOT THE "SWISS MISS," THEN WHO ELSE MIGHT BE THE "COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR" IN 2006?

May I direct your attention to the large rings under the big top, where two of the WTA Travelling Circus' main attractions are here to entertain you all.

To your left...

...you'll see a Debutante named Jelena, having escaped the perilous clutches of her domineering dad, only to see her once-bright future turn sorrowfully bleak Will she have the strength to not only go on, but flourish on the highwire of life, love and tennis... all without a net?!

To your right...

...Jennifer, the girl-next-door-turned-bad-seed-turned-destiny's-darling-turned-Petulant-One who managed to belatedly claim unanticipated glory just a short time ago, only to once again find herself on the wrong side of circumstance as she was sidelined by a potentially devastating injury. With the odds stacked against her yet again, are we about to witness the end of her miraculous story, or is she about to perform another death-defying trick?

All the WTA's 2006 circus acts have their compelling ingredients, but Dokic and Capriati deserve the big top spotlight because of their force of personality (with good and bad characteristics for both). Whether or not either gives the tour any good tennis this season is anyone's guess, but watching their travails and triumphs should make for irresistible viewing.

Take the case of Dokic, the lightning rod of all lightning rods for controversy (even the prospect of her getting a wild card into the Australian Open raised the eyebrows of vet Nicole Pratt, who didn't want to be skipped over for the honor in favor of a player who's played under a Serbian flag the last few seasons), and her recent Damir-free return to Melbourne as an old/new Aussie citizen for the first time since her father accused the AO organizers of rigging the draw against her (she faced Lindsay Davenport in the 1st Round, losing gamely in three sets) five years ago. Having lost all sense of herself, her confidence and her game over the intervening seasons (she recently admitted to the ignominy of having even a hard time getting out of bed after having nose and throat surgery while also battling a groin injury), dropping outside the Top 350 by the end of 2005, Dokic has played the part of burned-out former teen star to Oscar-winning perfection of late. Now back amongst the Sheilas, can she find happiness and success in her (once again) adopted homeland? And does "success" entail returning to her former Top 10 haunts, or is a servicable "middling" career trajectory enough for her after the depths to which she's sunk in recent seasons?

Win or lose, Dokic will be a big story. Back with a new coach and all the correct words about having a new attitude, she's currently experiencing an early upturn after winning the Australian Open wild card playoff this past weekend, gaining four wins over "luminaries" such as Shayna McDowell and Monique Adamczak. Of course, we've seen similar spurts and heard similar words from the Debutante at various times over the last few seasons, only to see her soon sink still deeper into one of her funks. After essentially becoming "The Invisible Girl" by the end of last season, she has to prove her worthiness now. Her eventual return to form is no longer a foregone conclusion.

Being a bigger fish in a smaller pond like she was last week is one thing (though she'd even lost that ability at times over the past two seasons), but holding up when the sharks arrive is another. She's not Serena Williams, talented enough to fiddle while Rome burns, but still able to occasionally muster enough moxie to trump the field and grab another dose of heady glory (as Williams did about a year ago in Melbourne). Dokic will have to be truly hungry and ready to make the sacrifices necessary for success in order for her to ever find her own brand of glory again. Whether or not she has that nerve will be the signpost that will determine if her '06 season is a success. Either way, it's going to be a tough road back, and she won't find all the answers she wants over the next eleven months. But for a player once renowned for her ability to fight, that might be just what the doctor ordered.

Jennifer Capriati is no stranger to signposts and bad headlines, either. But unlike Dokic, she's never done anything half-way.

In fact, Capriati was Hingis and Sharapova all rolled into one when she was in her early teens. She the next GREAT one. A WTA finalist at 13. She was the bubbly golden girl of the sport. A Roland Garros semifinalist at 14. She was to be the face of tennis for the next decade. She was the youngest Top 10 player ever. It was much too much pressure far too soon, and she cracked wide open, dropped out of sight for fourteen and fifteen-month stretches from 1993-95 and only re-emerged on the wrong side of a mug shot after a drug arrest and various other unsavory incidents. Suddenly, she was THE great cautionary tale for young athletes. But ever obstinate, Capriati weaved one of the more remarkable comeback tales in the history of this or any other sport, gradually reclimbing the ladder and reaching the top rung with three slam titles in barely over a year in 2001-02.

But Capriati, now 29 (30 in March), hasn't won a title since 2003, and missed all of 2005 after undergoing shoulder surgery. After moving back her return date throughout the course of last season (and again just recently, as she'll skip the Australian Open), it's now 2006 where she'll try to pull off the rare second comeback in a feast-or-famine career. With her late 20's/early 30's contemporaries still creating a stir at the top of the rankings in 2004-05, age isn't really a factor for a player who's now missed out on three full years of action over the last decade or so. But a shoulder injury, and a full year layoff, might be quite a stumbling block for a player as reliant on power and strength as Capriati.

Can lightning strike Capriati twice in the same decade? She's already proven she's bullheaded enough to believe it can. So why not?

And those two aren't the end of the potential soap opera theatrics in store for still more players on the comeback trail in 2006, as one of the most successful, as well as the most publicized player of the last dozen years could be heard from once again this season:

Monica Seles: The 32-year old nine-time slam winner, out of action with a foot injury since 2003, has been in the news lately. After trying and failing to get herself into position for a comeback attempt during the past two seasons, Seles recently conceded that she may be fighting a losing battle, saying that if she can't return to the tour in '06 she'll retire by season's end, officially calling it a Hall of Fame (but still hard-luck) career. Just think what might have happened had it not been for April 30, 1993 in Hamburg. It'll forever be one of the unanswered questions in tennis history.

Anna Kournikova: Hingis' comeback aspirations seem to have awakened at least a bit of the imagination inside the head of a certain 24-year old Original Anna. One half of the "Spice Girls" doubles combo that won the '99 and '02 Aussie Open titles, and a fellow WTT competitor last season, recently exited an exhibition with Hingis on the Copacabana Beach in Rio (where else could they have played, I ask?) by saying that she wasn't "ruling out" a return of her own to the tour after being M.I.A. since 2003. Either that, or she saw an opportunity to get a few extra headlines (it worked). Anna might have just been nonchalantly (or maybe it was shrewdly) tossing out an off-hand comment that was greedily seized upon by a press eager to find a little story to fill in the blanks spots on a slow sports news day, but for the first time since she left the tour the possibility of returning in some fashion might be a realistic prospect. The reason is Hingis. I mean, just think of the photo opportunities inherent in teaming up with Martina in a slam doubles draw. Anna loves the attention, and that bright spotlight might just be too tempting to ignore.

Of course, there's also the continued climb back to respectability of Ashley Harkleroad (looks good), Chanda Rubin (30 in February) hoping to be the next veteran to find some late-career magic before leaving the game with a better taste in her mouth (umm...this one might end up going by the wayside), and the long lonely wait for the return of Alicia Molik, who's decided to take a twelve-month sabbatical -- good luck on lowering your golf handicap, Steamer -- before beginning a full-fledged comeback from her bout with vestibular neuronitis (hmmm... sounds like a good candidate for a 2007 Intriguing Question, doesn't it?).

Ah, so many comebacks... so little Backspin Blogtown time. As was the case with the multi-pronged attempts to rise like a Phoenix last season (can you say, "Alexandra Stevenson?" Who? Exactly.), not all will be judged a success over the course of next season. Many will probably be met with modest, but inconsistent, accomplishments. And still others will be abject disasters. But at least one will likely provide a moment of triumph to behold for years to come.

Still, none of the ladies' quests for a "Second Act" (or in Capriati's case, a third) will have the same immediate impact on the upper echelon of the game's stars as 2005's comebacks... but they could collectively provide a script for the '06 season that'll be even more entertaining than last year's.

Every circus needs its sideshows, and the WTA has more than enough to keep the fans from getting bored.

**BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS**
1.Dokic will ride her current run to at least a QF result at one of the pre-Australian Open tuneups, then get at least one match win in Melbourne (her first slam victory since the '03 U.S. Open 1st Round). But her current #349 ranking won't quite rise above #50 in 2006.
------------------------
2.Capriati will hover in the #16-#25 range in the back half of the season after winning her first singles title since '03 and getting a couple hardcourt victories over Top 5 players in North America, where she'll regain some of her luster during the U.S. Open Series.
------------------------
3.The WTA's "Spice Girls" (or is it "Spice Women" now?) will share a tour-level doubles court again, probably at SW19.
------------------------
4.Harkleroad will reach her first career WTA singles final, but won't win it.
------------------------
5.Seles will retire (next stop: joining her one-time rival Steffi Graf at her own HOF induction in Newport), as will Rubin (who'll go on to be an ever bigger force for good after her playing days than she has been during them).
------------------------

All for now.

=======================
=======================

Next: "Movers & Shakers '06"

Read more...

2006 Intriguing Question #10

January is beckoning. Can you hear its clarion call above the din of December? The Dorothy Tour will begin in New Zealand and Australia in less than two weeks. Yes, the new sesaon is almost here. But WTA Backspin already is, with the opening edition of the "2006 WTA Intriguing Questions" series. First up, the initial part of a two-part discussion on the latest wave of comeback attempts set to break onto the beaches of the WTA shore.

10.CAN THE RETURN OF MARTINA HINGIS LIVE UP TO ALL THE HYPE?

Previously on "As the WTA World Turns"...

...Martina, former child ruler of all she surveyed until her power was usurped by a band of superior female warriors, flirted with an attempt to reclaim her former glory as a more worldly-wise adult, only to suffer an early defeat and turn her back on the struggle for power once more. But had she really given up her aspirations to recapture her throne? Or was she just biding her time, building up her defenses and fortifying her strength for the mother of all battles against not only the powerful ruling class that once overthrew her, but also the legion of scions their power and fame lured into the fray?...

A little over the top? Probably. Well, yeah... but not really. Not when you consider what's already happened on the WTA tour over the past year.

Just for a second, consider the improbability of the string of comeback stories that dominated the tour in 2005: a 29-year old veteran who nearly retired in mid-2004 wrapped up her second straight year as season-ending #1, a Belgian who'd been overwhelmed by a "mystery illness" rose above the throng of contenders to win another slam title, only to be trumped three months later by another Belgian whose career nearly ended because of a wrist injury that dropped her ranking outside the Top 100 as late as early March but still went on to claim her long-overdue first slam crown in September, completing a multi-slam '05 combo that had been earlier matched by a pair of sisters who manuevered through injuries and indifference to take the other half of the season's four biggest titles. Then, in an almost laughing-at-fate moment that put the finishing touches on the season, they were all outshined in the season's closing weeks by a 30-year old who'd overcome years of injuries and familial turmoil to emerge as a steady, heady contender playing the best tennis of her career. Crazy stuff.

Seriously, sometimes it seems like the WTA tour is just a switched-at-birth or multiple personality disorder (no, Damir Dokic does not count) storyline away from being eligible for a Writer's Guild nomination for Best Original Screenplay. Thing is, no one could think up some of the plotlines that polka-dot the tour like a slinky silk party dress on a Supernova without being being called a fraud of the highest order. They're just not realistic at first glance... but they're all true nonetheless. Who says reality TV isn't plausible? (And I'm not even talking about "Venus & Serena: For Real.")

And now here comes Martina Hingis.

Success never had a difficult time finding Hingis. It came naturally to her (maybe too naturally). She was the toast of the town right out of the box, from her dominant junior days (in which she ruled the roost over #2 girl Anna Kournikova) to her early seasons as a pro when she rose to #1 before her 17th birthday and stayed there for 209 of the next 247 weeks, nearly completing a single season Grand Slam in 1997 (only losing the Roland Garros final to Iva Majoli) as she won four out of five slams and reached at least the SF of 104 of 118 tour events. Everything seemed so right for "the smiling assassin," who cleverly toyed and precociously taunted her opponents with inventive shots and mind games on the court, while seeming to all the world to be the maturing poster child (and GQ covergirl, a first for a female athlete) for all that was right about tennis prodigies off it. Then she started to lose, and all hell broke loose.

When things stopped being easy for Hingis, the gleam in her eye vanished. She became frustrated and her mantle of intelligent invincability crumbed in full view of everyone. Never physically overpowering anyway, and dependent on the mental aspects of her game, the Swiss Miss was at a loss for how to handle the Big Babe style of tennis that became en vogue in the late '90s and early 2000's. Outmatched shot-for-shot against the other rising top players, she started to lose to them. And rather than use her mind and a better training regimen to maintain her position, she instead de-evolved and starting acting like the spoiled brat everyone had convinced themselves that she wasn't.

She famously had an embarrassing temper tantrum against Steffi Graf in the Roland Garros final in 1999, crossing the net to argue a call and later running from the court in tears after losing a lead and seeing the German great win what would be her final slam title, only returning after being coaxed to do so by her coach/mother Melanie Molitor. A few weeks later, her headline-grabbing 1st Round loss to Jelena Dokic at Wimbledon was but another early warning sign. Less than two years after nearly pulling off a Grand Slam, Hingis never won another slam title after that aura-liquifying spring in Europe.

Over the next few seasons, still unable to find a way to handle the power of her more imposing counterparts, Hingis nonetheless maintained her top ranking by playing more often and racking up points/wins against many of the players who weren't in position to knock her off her ranking pedestal. But by possibly overplaying she experienced chronic ankle injuries that ultimately led to surgery, a rushed return, and then retirement at the age of 22. Her health likely did play some part in her decision, but it was difficult at the time to lay not a small portion of the blame at the feet of her lack of will to continue to strive to be "second-best," at best, after so many years of competing with few or no equals within earshot.

A curious thing happened during Hingis' absence, though. Justine Henin-Hardenne came along and did precisely what Hingis didn't. Inheriting the role of the tour's "most clever" player, the small-in-stature JHH found ways to chop down, outlast and out-gut her physically-imposing counterparts and climbed over them all to the #1 ranking. Sure, the Belgian was helped along by a weapon that Hingis never had, namely one big overpowering shot (JHH's backhand) that could be called upon to get the goat of a Big Babe with a big winner of her own from just about anywhere on the court... but the new Queen showed it was possible.

That, and the aging and/or unfocused nature of many of the power players who shoved her aside, had to catch Hingis' eye. The seeds had been sown for a comeback attempt. Still only 24, she dipped a cautious toe into the WTA pool last February, returning at a small event in Pattaya, only to lose to "The Blue Angel" herself, Marlene Weingartner, a player Hingis would routinely crush in her heyday, by a 1-6/6-2/6-2 score. Another taste of defeat didn't sit well and her comeback was stopped cold. But, looking for another outlet for her tennis ambitions, the World Team Tennis tour proved to be Hingis' safe haven.

Playing one-set matches during the late summer, Hingis was a star again. Beaming under the glow of the lights and practically bathing in the appreciative applause of her fans, she went 8-1 in singles and 17-0 in doubles, leading her N.Y. Sportimes club to the league title, gaining playoff MVP honors and rediscovering the once lost gleam in her eye. "Hey, this is pretty easy. Maybe I can do this" thoughts must have sparked between all the Swiss Miss brain synapses. Then, right on cue, days after the 2005 season ended, Hingis announced that she was returning to the WTA tour on a full-time basis.

But will an older Martina be able to physically hold her own against many of the very same people she failed to overcome when she was still in her grinning diva prime, as well as the new contingent of grunting (and forehand-blasting) teenaged foes with the same burning desire to succeed Hingis had when she was their age? The reports are good that she's made at least a few necessary tweaks to her game, but the truth won't be known until Hingis takes the court in real live match situations.

The WTT stoked her competitive fire brightly enough to cause her to make this attempt, but will it be doused again if she isn't immediately successful? Remember, she sounded the words of a defeated ex-champion who realized she wasn't up to a Second Act after just one match less than a year ago. She had a hard time not being the best before. How will she handle it now when she's even farther away from that position?

In her favor, there are so many injuries these days she might avoid meeting more than one true power player if she advances to a SF or better, and most of those players don't measure up to even a quarter of Hingis' brazen on-court guile... if it's still there, that is. Remember, Monica Seles was on course to maybe become the best ice-in-her-veins champion the sport had ever seen, then she went to Germany in 1993 and everything changed. Even after she healed physically, Seles' nerves were shot. In a "crisis," will the Hingis of 1997 re-emerge, or the one from 1999? That Hingis never learned to lose, or to learn from losing. And the losses will come. Has she evolved enough as a player to be able to accept her limitations, and find another way around an obstacle?

Hingis will never reach her former heights, but the tour is still better just having her around. Over time, most have not only forgotten why they weren't exactly tearing up over Hingis' announced exit after the '02 season, but also the drug-like effect the teenaged Swiss Miss had on the tennis world when she first pounced onto centerstage in the pre-Williams era. Her devilish grin was infectious... at least until she turned into a little "devil incarnate" while trying to navigate the passage from teen-to-adult (so sue her -- she's not Steffi Graf). A tennis lifetime has passed in the few short years Hingis has been away. So much has happened (in 2002, it was "Maria who?"), and she'll have to have commensurably matured to fight her way through the inherent disadvantages of essentially being away from the game for three years. It's difficult not to have doubts that she has the goods to do it.

The first major test for Hingis will likely come in Melbourne, where she reached the final six consecutive times from 1997-02, a run that continued even after her dominance had waned. She's comfortable there, and the games of many of the other top players usually haven't gelled so early in the season. Hmmm... could you imagine if she somehow pulled off a miracle and continued that streak next month? Hmmm... if she made the final, that'd mean she could...

Nah, that'll never happen. It's just not realistic. Hmmm... where have I heard that refrain before?

**BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS**
1.Hingis will find things slow going early on as she struggles with her fitness and the ability to play three full, tough sets.
------------------------
2.Still, in Melbourne, she'll get her first slam singles match win since the '02 U.S. Open. In fact, she'll get a handful of them at her best slam event.
------------------------
3.As the season moves along, Hingis will take advantage of injuries to top players to reach at least the QF of a slam (probably Roland Garros).
------------------------
4.She'll add at least two moderately-tiered (III, and maybe a less-populated II) crowns to her career haul of 40 WTA singles titles, winning them on multiple surfaces.
------------------------
5.Finally, Hingis will close the year in the Top 30 and start spinning tails to anyone who'll listen about how she'll return to the Top 10 in 2007.
-----------------------

All for now.


========================
========================

Keep coming back to WTA Backspin pretty much every day for the next two weeks for more "Intriguing Questions," predictions and previews in preparation for the kickoff of the 2006 season over New Year's weekend.

Next: So many comebacks, so little Backspin Blogtown time.

Read more...