Odds & Ends Between Marbella and Paris (and Top 10 Second Thoughts)

"Is Justine playing?"

That used to be all that needed to be asked when looking out at the expanse that is the WTA's clay court season, and Clay Queen Henin the First usually made sure things went according to plan. But ever since La Petit Taureau up and retired two weeks before the start of Roland Garros a season ago, it's been more of a 'Who?," or "Really, her?" or "Are you sure she can keep it together long enough to do something like THAT?" proposition on the clay.

And since know one's thinking about Sesil when they're asked potentially leading questions such as those, it's probably best to devise some sort of plan of action when it comes to who to pay attention to over the next few months.

The 2009 Clay Court Experience has begun at, to name one tournament, "The Andalucia Tennis Experience" in Marbella (seriously, has there ever been a cooler name for a tournament than that?) in Week 14, and some interesting things have already occurred that could alter the course of the road to Roland Garros.

Here's a quick look at the players who'll be looking at the clay court season in entirely different ways:

**MOST IMPORTANT**
Jelena Jankovic, Dinara Safina and Ana Ivanovic: last clay season, these were the players who filled the space left by Henin's departure. Jankovic defended her Rome title, Safina won Berlin and reached the RG final, and Ivanovic became a grand slam champion in Paris. As of Monday April 20, when Safina moves up, all three will have spent post-Justine time at #1, but up until this weekend none had been able to win a singles title in '09. Jankovic changed that today by winning her tenth career (fifth on clay) title in Marbella, overcoming a slew of clay courters and seeming to regain a great deal of the fluidity of movement and defensive skills she lost during that "bulking up" offseason phase that pretty much blew up in her face during the 1st Quarter. Before the season, Roland Garros seemed to be Jankovic's best shot at that elusive slam title. After a slow start, maybe that conventional wisdom will turn out to be true after all. This weekend could have been the unexpected beginning of Queen Chaos' triumphant march toward Paris.

Umm, or not. Who can tell with the J-Bot?

Ivanovic admits to having a hard time balancing her life and tennis with the new expectations heaped upon her since winning RG in '08. Occasionally over the past year, she's popped up with a good result, but she's never been able to follow it up with another one and regain the confidence she had in Paris. A return to the clay might be her best chance to reclaim the memory, though. As for Safina... well, maybe she won't experience the same #1 slump that has struck the Serbs since she's pretty much been going through it BEFORE assuming the top spot. Of course, sitting atop the rankings will encumber the Russian Cat with a whole new type of pressure, won't it? Being a Safin, she could be about to soar to new heights... or crash in a fashion that might make you want to cover your eyes to block out the carnage.

Maybe none of these three will scale the heights of their previous clay seasons, but here's their collective chance to begin to save their campaigns and reclaim the spotlight that Victoria Azarenka has stolen from them so far in '09.
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**LEAST IMPORTANT**
Serena and Venus Williams: Serena is hobbled and pulling out of tournaments as the clay season is getting underway, while Venus has never been a dominating presence at this time of the year (though she's not inconsequential by any means, and already has a clay title in '09). The Sisters have carried the tour on their shoulders in '09 as Maria Sharapova has been absent and the aforementioned trio of Europeans have fallen off, and maybe they're owed the next few months to refuel and get ready for the grass and hard court seasons that very well could be dominated by the pair as thoroughly as they were last year. Serena held onto her #1 ranking as long as she could (her 1st Round loss in Marbella finally put that to rest), so there's no longer any urgency to play when she's not 100%. Venus might have her best chance to challenge for year-end #1 since the beginning of this decade, though, and a good clay season would go a long way toward helping her pull off the feat (she's never finished a season at #1). Somehow, though, being healthy enough to win in London and New York would seem to be a higher priority for her. Ditto for Serena.
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**POISED FOR "GREATNESS"?**
Vera Zvonareva & Victoria Azarenka: The Diplomat and the tour's Little Miss Sunshine '09 herself have been the two revelatory players of the past six months. Both have already claimed "premier-plus" titles, reached new career highs (Zvonareva Top 5, Azarenka Top 10) and flashed at a slam (the Russian reached her first slam SF in Melbourne, while the Belarusian had eventual champ Serena on the ropes before the heat got the best of her) in '09, but the best may be yet to come. The true test will come in Paris, though. Will the "new" Vera allow HER to become the next first-time slam winner at the event that has produced so many, or will it be Azarenka (who's yet to reach a slam QF) who'll continue her climb there? Surely, they'll both be (at the very least) dark horse choices to win the title, though Azarenka's shoulder soreness will have to be watched. While there are many things she has in common with Sharapova, that need not become one of them.

If not these, too, though, then whom? Hmmm... maybe Elena Dementieva, though her recent dip in results has sort of removed her from the first paragraph of the conversation. She might not have a better chance to win a slam than she could have in Paris, especially if the Safina/Serbs trio aren't on the upswing come RG time.
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**READY TO TURN HEADS**
Caroline Wozniacki & Carla Suarez-Navarro: Wozniacki is following along in Azarenka's footsteps. As of this posting, she hasn't yet won a title in '09, but she'll be playing for the Ponte Vedra Beach title in a matter of hours. In the SF, she showed great defensive skills and an intense steadiness in the face of the Shakespearean drama going on on the other side of the net with Elena Vesnina. C-Woz saved four match points and ultimately won a 3rd set tie-break by putting away her third match point. Hmmm... defense, steadiness, patience and a knowledge of how to win a close, grueling match under tough conditions... yeah, those things could come in handy on the clay.

Suarez-Navarro made her mark last year by qualifying in Paris and reaching the QF. She reached her second slam QF in Melbourne in January, but she's lacked enough consistency (and steady nerves) to move up the rankings as quickly as one might expect from her slam exploits. She did reach her first career singles final in Marbella this weekend, though (after nearly letting the potential moment get the better of her in the SF against Sorana Cirstea), so her post-Australian Open lull seems to be over. As long as she can remain slightly under the radar, she could be a natural force to reckon with on the clay thanks to her Henin-esque backhand, mobility and fighting skills.

Looking for another potential mover-and-shaker? Well, Alize Cornet would certainly be a good bet. While she's improved her hard court results over the last year, she always has been and still is a menacing fighter with the potential to topple just about anyone on clay.
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**LURCHING TOWARD DISASTER?**
Maria Sharapova: oh, remember when it looked as if Sharapova was going to head to Melbourne to defend her Australian Open title? Well, we're still waiting... and with every passing week one wonders if we'll see the Supernova at all in '09. A season ago she was winning her first career clay title in Amelia Island, but now she's the biggest question mark in the sport. Shoulder injuries can be tricky and potentially devastating (ask Ms. Capriati), and she's learning that the hard way. Rome is the next rumored city where Sharapova will resurface, but one wonders why she'd bother to try to come back on slow clay when she can wait for the grass or hard court season to re-emerge. I guess this sort of year was in the cards whenever both Pierre Cantin and I picked Sharapova to finish the season at #1, huh? I guess the ol' "Kuznetsova Curse" is still just as potent as ever. Sorry, Maria.



Speaking of those pre-season rankings, here's where the "second thoughts" come in. It's been three months, and it's clear that I was under the influence of something when I picked my original Top 10. So, I'll try again.

(original prediction in parenthesis)

1. Serena Williams (3)... still the best
2. Venus Williams (6)... unless
3. Vera Zvonareva (8)... the next slammin' Russian?
4. Victoria Azarenka (-)... ready, set, go?
5. Jelena Jankovic (2)... she's baaaack, maybe
6. Elena Dementieva (9)... January already seems ages ago
7. Dinara Safina (5)... heavy wears the crown
8. Caroline Wozniacki (7)... looking for something BIG
9. Svetlana Kuznetsova (-)... against my better judgment
10. Ana Ivanovic (4)... still looking for the bottom?

I suppose I'll know in a few months whether or not I was under the influence of something else when I made THESE picks. If I was, though, I'll refuse to be wrong a THIRD third time. My limit for looking like a fool in the same arena is twice... well, unless I'm under the influence of something, I guess.

All for now.