Monday, January 07, 2019

Wk.1- Act 1, Scene 1 (2019)

Ready or not, the 2019 season is here...

via GIPHY



Let's see. In Week 1 we had six singles finalists from six different nations, and twelve semifinalists representing twelve different nations. Auckland had its first repeat champ in fifteen years, and its first qualifier finalist in twenty-three. A player ranked #283 upset a Top 10er. Two of last year's slam champions already have their first losses. A 43-year old won a doubles title, while an 18-year old reached a singles final. A Kiwi played in a doubles final in front of her home nation's fans, and a player who reached #2 in 2010 is officially back in the Top 100 for the first time in six years. Oh, and we may have just seen the greatest -- and final -- Hopman Cup ever.

Now, the next trick is trying to figure out if any of it means anything at all.



It *is* Week 1, after all.




*WEEK 1 CHAMPIONS*
BRISBANE, AUS (Premier/Hard Court)
S: Karolina Pliskova/CZE def. Lesia Tsurenko/UKR 4-6/7-5/6-2
D: Nicole Melichar/Kveta Peschke (USA/CZE) d. Chan Hao-Ching/Latisha Chan (TPE/TPE) 6-1/6-1
SHENZHEN, CHN (International/Hard Court)
S: Aryna Sabalenka/BLR def. Alison Riske/USA 4-6/7-6(2)/6-3
D: Peng Shuai/Yang Zhaoxuan (CHN/CHN) d. Duan Yingying/Renata Voracova (CHN/CZE) 6-4/6-3
AUCKLAND, NZL (International/Hard Court)
S: Julia Goerges/GER def. Bianca Andreescu/CAN 2-6/7-5/6-1
D: Genie Bouchard/Sonya Kenin (CAN/USA) d. Paige Mary Hourigan/Taylor Townsend (NZL/USA) 1-6/6-1 [10-7]
Hopman Cup XXXI (Perth, AUS/Indoor Hard Court)
F: SUI (Bencic/Federer) def. GER (Kerber/A.Zverev) 2-1



PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Julia Goerges/GER
...in the end, no Canadian -- neither one of them, in fact -- was going to prevent Goerges from becoming the first woman to successfully defend the Auckland singles title in fifteen years. [QUICK QUIZ: Who was the player who won back-to-back ASB Classic titles in 2003-04? Hint: she's still active.]



The 30-year old German, who twelve months ago opened up 2018 with a title in New Zealand to kick off a season that saw her reach her maiden slam SF and make her Top 10 debut, is looking for a repeat. Well, *another* repeat. Goerges wasn't always in *top* form in Auckland this past week, but when she needed to be, she was. Wins over Johanna Larsson and Mona Barthel set up a QF match with Genie Bouchard. The top-ranked woman from Canada seemed to have Goerges' number. She led 3-0 in the 3rd set, and held a MP. But the German pushed things to a tie-break, and then put on a great 14-point performance to get the win, closing out by advancing to the net with a 7-6 lead and reaching inside Bouchard's chest, pulling out her beating heart and showing it to her, taking what looked like a down-the-line pass to tie things at 7-7 and turning it into a match-ending volley instead.

She followed that up by handling Viktoria Kuzmova in the semis and then overcoming a very slow start versus future Canadian #1 Bianca Andreescu in the final, battling against herself and the getting-to-everything-despite-a-eight-match-workload-that'll-probably-set-her-back-for-weeks for two sets before finally seizing control of the match in the deciding 3rd and wearing down the teenager, who finally had nothing more to give after giving more all week than even her backers (for example: me) thought she probably had in her at this point of her young career. Career win #7, and her first successful title defense, for Goerges completes a quite nice four-year run in Auckland which looks something like this: RU-SF-W-W.

Not bad, eh?

QUIZ ANSWER: it was... Eleni Daniilidou.

Did you get it? You deserve a medal if you did. For the record, at age 36, Daniilidou's efforts are now confined to the challenger circuit. The Greek played as recently as December (a singles SF at a $15K in Italy) after finishing last season #1016 in singles and #925 in doubles.
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RISER: Aryna Sabalenka/BLR, Karolina Pliskova/CZE and Lesia Tsurenko/UKR
...for two of the players honored here, their Week 1 titles are nice, but they're hoping for something more very soon.



In Shenzhen, Sabalenka carried over her late '18 momentum to a season-opening title (#3 for her career). But while her wins over Tatjana Maria (from a set down), Ekaterina Alexandrova, Maria Sharapova (ret.), Wang Yafan and Alison Riske (from a set down again) were nice, one has to think the entire time the little voice in the back of her head was telling her how all this is going to help her in Melbourne (or maybe London or New York). Sabalenka has unfinished business, and it isn't in Shenzhen... well, at least not until November, I guess. The Belarusian, who'll once again rise to being THIS CLOSE to the Top 10 (#11) in the new rankings, a slam breakthrough is next on her career agenda, if not her destiny. Sabalenka was just 1-4 in slam MD play before her Round of 16 run at Flushing Meadows ("Boom-shaka-Osaka") last summer. She's capable of so much more. And she knows it, too. To be continued.

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2019 here we come ????????

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In Brisbane, Pliskova won her second title at the tournament in three years, coming from a set down to defeat Yulia Putintseva in the 1st Round, going three to defeat Ajla Tomljanovic in the QF (tossing in 14 aces) and resurrecting her title hopes in the final after falling behind Tsurenko 6-4/5-3. She also defeated Marie Bouzkova and Donna Vekic along the way. Title #12 is a fine thing, as is her now seven-season streak of winning at least one crown (behind only the active runs of Caroline Wozniacki's 11 and Petra Kvitova's 8 through '18), and her reclaiming of the Czech #1 ranking from Petra this week. But, just like Sabalenka, Pliskova -- a former #1 and slam finalist -- has bigger fish to fry. A major one, in fact. Her trip to Melbourne will be her first with her new official coaching set-up (w/ Aussie Rennae Stubbs and '98 AO finalist Conchita Martinez) in place, as well as her return to the sort of serving form that made her a true slam threat in 2016. Coming off back-to-back QF at the Australian the last two years, Pliskova arrives this time with her credibility fully restored, and her eye of a fish fry. To be continued.

Meanwhile, Pliskova's final opponent, Tsurenko leaves Week 1 with the light of new possibility in her eyes, as well. After her previous four tour singles finals (all wins) had come in International level events, the Urkainian's runner-up result in the Premier Brisbane tournament was both a career first *and* best. Wins over Mihaela Buzarnescu, Kimberly Birrell, Anett Kontaveit and Naomi Osaka (the second biggest win of her career, after #2 Wozniacki at last year's U.S. Open) set up her match vs. Pliskova. She led by a set and 5-3, but couldn't fashion a winning ending that would have produced her biggest career moment. Doing a "3/4 Halep" ankle roll in the 3rd set surely didn't help her cause. Still, the 29-year old will rise to a new career-best ranking of #24 this week as she looks to follow up her first slam QF run at last year's U.S. Open with another similar result at a second straight major. She'll have to overcome her AO history (1-5 the last five years) to do it.


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SURPRISES: Kimberly Birrell/AUS and Wang Yafan/CHN
...20-year old Aussie Birrell (#283) has had quite the productive few weeks. In December she won Tennis Australia's AO Wild Card Playoff (def. Astra Sharma in the final) to reach her maiden slam main draw. This week in Brisbane (as a WC) she picked up her second career tour-level MD victory with a three-hour long take down, and comeback from 5-3 in the 3rd, against world #10 Dasha Kasatkina. Sure, she lost her next match to Lesia Tsurenko, but not everyone can do the sort of things Bianca Andreescu did this week in Auckland.



Birrell carried over her good vibes (for a while) to Sydney this weekend, as she saved two SP in the 1st and a MP in the 3rd en route to upsetting Kristina Mladenovic in the opening round of qualifying. She lost in her following match to fellow Aussie Priscilla Hon. Still, she'll jump 34 spots to a career-best #249 this week.

Elsewhere, you say you *didn't* have Wang YAFAN as the last remaining Chinese women in the singles draw in Shenzhen? Surely it was a typo and you *meant* to list her as the player to reach the semifinals rather than Wang QIANG, right? It's a good story, so stick with it.



Wang, coming off a career-best season that saw her finish at #70, win her biggest title (a $60K), reach the Miami Round of 16, just her second WTA WS semi (Taipei) since '14, and biggest singles final (WTA 125 Zhengzhou), reached her fourth tour-level semifinal with wins over Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, Ons Jabeur and Monica Niculescu. She lost to top seed and eventual champ Sabalenka in straights. Wang will be up to another career high (#64) in the new rankings.
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VETERANS: Alison Riske/USA and Angelique Kerber/GER
...Riske, 28, has reached seven singles finals in her WTA career. Five of them have come in China, with three taking place in Shenzhen over the past four years. Sure, Riske's loss this weekend to Aryna Sabalenka drops her career tour-level final record to 1-6 (with six straight defeats since winning her maiden final in Tianjin in 2014), but it's safe to say that the Pittsburgh native quite often feels at home just this side of The Great Wall. After opening with a win over Wang Qiang (yes, that Wang Qiang... yes, in China... so, you know, score!), Riske followed up with victories over Evgeniya Rodina, Sorana Cirstea and Vera Zvonareva (via ret. at 6-0/1-0) to get within a win of taking the tournament title yet again. After taking the 1st set, Riske staged a comeback from 4-1 down in the 2nd to force a tie-break, only to see the Belarusian seize control and ride it out to victory a set later. The week allows Riske to rise fourteen spots -- jumping the likes of Azarenka, Bencic, Makarova, Jabeur and others. It's her first Top 50 ranking since September '17.

Of course, she'd *rather* have the title...




Aside from taking cute selfies with a quokka, Kerber had a pretty good week in Perth *on* the court, too. Again.




Yes, she and Sascha Zverev finished as the Hopman Cup runners-up for the second straight year to the Swiss (ahem, clears throat... that Federling guy), but it wasn't for Angie's lack of trying. Just as she did last year, Kerber took care of her end of things, going 4-0 in singles as she notched wins over Garbine Muguruza, Alize Cornet and Ash Barty in the finalist-deciding tie vs. Australia. In the final, just as she did last year, she defeated Belinda Bencic in singles only to lose to her and you-know-who with her German ATP teammate by her side in the deciding mixed match-up (though this time it came down to a final point that served as a MP for both teams). She'll stop off in Sydney this week (she could face Simona Halep in the final, after possibly having faced the 1st Round Sabalenka/Kvitova survivor in the QF) before heading to Melbourne.

Of course, one can't mention the Hopman Cup -- beloved, feel-good, well run and, as it often is, the event that got more headlines in Week 1 than all the other events combined -- without noting that this 31st edition of the event might be the last. It's not on the schedule for 2020 due to funds being diverted to the new all-male ATP World Team Cup in Australia next January. Whether the Hopman can be saved (in some form) or replaced by a similar mixed-tour format is in question, but you know the odds aren't good. Which is to be expected, I guess, since it has been a rare shining example of athletes from the two tennis tours combining their efforts in an entertaining, near-perfect format in which good competition mixed with fun, and was absent the usual cross-tour back-biting that occurs elsewhere (usually not from the side of the Most Interesting Tour, it should be noted) and allowed all players to exist on an equal plane without question, offense or side-eye (see Serena/Roger).

I mean, why would something like *that* be able to exist these days?
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COMEBACKS: Genie Bouchard/CAN and Vera Zvonareva/RUS
...Bianca Andreescu was the bigger story during the week, but it was her Canadian countrywoman Bouchard who left New Zealand with a title. And she came very closet to upsetting Goerges' title-winning jaunt in singles, as well. With Michael Joyce on board as coach, Bouchard finally looks to possibly be ready to make a legitimate move back up the rankings. Auckland wins over Madison Brengle and Bibiane Schoofs set up a QF clash with defending champ Goerges. Bouchard led 3-0 in the 3rd set, and held a MP, only to see the German storm back and take the match with an excellent TB performance to win 8-6. With her week not over yet, Bouchard then went out and claimed her first career tour WD title (*now*, Genie -- after I'd predicted you to do that *last* year on your way back, but you left it off your "To-Do" list?), joining with fellow first-timer Sonya Kenin to win deciding 3rd set TBs over Han/Jurak (10-8) in the semis and Hourigan/Townsend (10-7) in the final. Bouchard rises to #79 in singles this week, her highest standing since October '17.




In Shenzhen, 34-year old Zvonareva, a two-final tour singles finalist in China ('08 Guangzhou and '10 Beijing RU), used a wild card into the singles MD to put together a semifinal run that included wins over Luksika Kumkhum, Ivana Jorovic and fellow Hordette Veronika Kudermetova (over two days, in a three-setter that ended on her seventh MP). It's enough to lift her from #109 into the Top 100 for the first time since January 2013. Ultimately, Zvonareva, who also reached the doubles semis with Timea Bacsinszky, retired with an injured back after losing the first seven games of her semi vs. Alison Riske.
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FRESH FACES: Bianca Andreescu/CAN, Donna Vekic/CRO and Viktoria Kuzmova/SVK
...while she didn't win the title in Auckland, Andreescu "won" Week 1. Her qualifier to finalist run is what we'll remember most (well, maybe after the "When Serena Met Roger.." moment in Perth, I mean).



Essentially, there was nothing she didn't do well this past week. Her power and touch game was dangerous and tricky (sometimes at the same time), her defensive skill were often eye-popping (even at the tail end of an eight-matches-in-nine-days stretch during which she'd dealt with a lingering cough, back injury and a thigh she had wrapped at the end -- at least until she ripped the bandages off late in her final match -- that had left her body "a mess"), her first serve was effective, she didn't blink when facing down future Hall of Famers (one the current world #3 and reigning AO champ), big hitters, oddball attacks (she's a natural at solving Tennis Sudoku, apparently) or, for a while, a defending champ who has made the event her personal playground in recent years. I've been a fan of the still-only-18 year old for a while (I know I've been dragging her into the conversation back to at least 2016), and have always felt she was capable of a lot if she could ever avoid the lingering injuries that (especially in '18) slowed her proress, but even I didn't see her Week 1 breakout coming.



In truth, I was happy when she made her way through qualifying, and ecstatic when the world #152 posted her first tour-level MD win in over a year by taking out Timea Babos. In just her fifth WTA MD (1 slam, 1 Premier & 3 Int'l), it was hard to imagine that she'd handle #3 Caroline Wozniacki as handily as she did (improving to 2-0 vs. Top 20 players, having previously send Kiki Mladenovic down that long dark losing streak by upsetting her in Washington in '17), or that she'd stand up to the likes of Venus Williams as she did a round later (she didn't let twice losing a break lead in the 1st get her down, or losing the eventual TB take her off course, or being a break down early in the 2nd cause her to lose hope -- she instead responded by reeling off eleven straight games). While some are perplexed by the game of Hsieh Su-wei, Andreescu didn't blink and defeated the veteran in straights to reach her maiden tour final, becoming the first qualifier to reach the Auckland final since 1996 (Marion Maruska).




Ultimately, she was finally taken out by a better player, but only after making defending champion Julia Goerges dig down to bring forth her best after the teenager dominated an "off" German in the 1st set, and then turned around a 2nd set deficit to actually get back on serve and lead 5-4. Though Goerges eventually pulled away as Andreescu's long week seemed to finally hit her (at least glancingly) in the deciding set, but it was anything but an easy night.

Andreescu comes up just short of becoming the first Canadian WTA singles champ since 2014 (she'd been just the seventh ever, and the third in the past thirty years), and won't yet break into the Top 100 (she'll be #107). One wonders if she'll be up to lasting long in AO qualifying this week. But she proved in Auckland that there is indeed a lot of *there* there. Since she returned in October from her summer injury break, The Pride of Mississauga, Ontario (and Romania, too, as she was born in Canada, went with her family to ROU, then returned as a rising tennis pre-teen -- picking Simona Halep as her favorite player, so she's got that goin' for her, too) has won two $25K titles, reached a WTA final, two $60K semis and a $25K QF for a combined record of 18-4 in less than three months time.

Now, if she can just clean up the "mess" caused by her big run and see what happens next.

Oh, and since she seemingly got almost as much screen time as Andreescu herself this week, that was always-smiling Tennis Canada trainer Virginie Tremblay sending sunbeams and rainbows Bianca's way while coaching her all week long. Before this week she hadn't tweeted since 2015.






In Brisbane, Vekic continues to make a case for leaving this "Fresh Face" category for the more experienced pastures of the "Risers," but she's still just 22 and, well, that category was a little crowded this week. So here she is, at least for this week. You could feel the change in the Croatian last summer at Wimbledon when she fed off her disappointment from a year earlier at SW19 to produce her first slam Round of 16 result. So it was nice to hear this week, as she put on a semifinal run after knocking off Magdalena Rybarikova, Kiki Bertens (winning the 1st after being a break down on multiple occasions, then pulling out the victory after the Top 10er served at 5-4 in the 3rd and had two MP) and '18 finalist Aliaksandra Sasnovich, that *she* still thinks about her career-altering AELTC experience, too.



She lost to Pliskova a match short of her seventh (and biggest) career final, but she'll take what she needs from the experience as she enters the Top 30 for the first time this week. While still in her early 20's, she's been around for a while, and through a lot. She reached her first tour singles final six and a half years ago now. It isn't often the case with players of her standing with such a background, but the best *still* seems yet to come for Vekic. Crossing fingers.



A year ago, Kuzmova opened her season by making her way through Auckland qualifying before losing to eventual champion Julia Goerges in the 2nd Round. Twelve months later, after a season that saw her rise from outside the Top 100 to on the cusp of the Top 50 (she jumped inside with a $100K challenger result in December), become a Fed Cup star for Slovakia and reach two tour SF (one as a LL). The 20-year old was in Auckland again in Week 1 this year. She posted wins over Tamara Zidansek, Sonya Kenin and Amanda Anisimova (the final two in three sets)... only to lose (this time in the semifinals) again to Goerges, who'd once more go on to win the title. After falling love & 4 in '18, she rebounded from a 6-1 1st this time to at least force a 2nd set TB in a straight sets defeat. Kuzmova will climb to a new career high of #46 but, you know, maybe she should consider Shenzhen in 2020. Just a thought.
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DOWN: Hmmm...
...as noted earlier, using poor Week 1 results to gauge what a player will do in the upcoming season is pretty much akin to perusing the in-match Twitter commentary being doled out by members of many top star's fans when the player is question in the throes of losing a match they expected to see won: unreliable, nasty and idiotic. [The latest example: a string of anti-Andreescu comments from a subset of fans of a certain Dane earlier this week.]

So, it's easy to overlook 1st Round losses this week by the likes of Dasha Kasatkina (to Aussie upstart Kimberly Birrell), Elina Svitolina (to Aliaksandra Sasnovich, the player she beat in last year's Brisbane final), Sloane Stephens (to Johanna Konta), Wang Qiang (IN CHINA, to Alison Riske), Elise Mertens (to Kiki Bertens), Caroline Garcia (to Ivana Jorovic) and Alona Ostapenko (to Monica Niculescu, who allowed just *two* games... of course, it's *especially* unfair to judge Latvian Thunder for not being ready for the Romanian's oft-maddening unconventional style in her *first* match of the new season, isn't it?).

Same goes for the aforementioned Caroline Wozniacki's 2nd Round upset by the Canadian, as well as that of Petra Kvitova (vs. Kontaveit) and Bertens (vs. Vekic). Garbine Muguruza losing to both Angelique Kerber and Ash Barty in the Hopman Cup, then pulling out of MX doubles with an injury after finally getting a singles win over Cornet, is another case of Garbi being Garbi. We sort of *expect* that. Maria Sharapova's QF retirement (thigh) against Aryna Sabalenka in Shenzhen, too, is becoming a far too common ending. Konta opened with that win over Stephens, but then fell to Ajla Tomljanovic a match later, and this weekend retired with a neck injury during Sydney qualifying. But at this point early losses and the continued slip of the Brit down the rankings (she's barely inside the Top 40 now after back-to-back Top 10 years in 2016-17) barely causes an involuntary twitch. Could another coaching change be imminent? (I joke, of course... I mean, we *know* it's just a matter of when, not if, *that* happens.)




Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka's exit (SF vs. Tsurenko) in Brisbane wasn't pretty, but her instant acknowledgement of such and public self-analysis was so special it'd be easy to forgive her even if it happens again in Melbourne: "Before I would just be nervous to be there in a way. But now I feel nervous because I feel I should win." Week 1 was a "valuable lesson" for Osaka, and her reaction to it should be one for a slew of other players, too.




I suppose if one was going to raise an eyebrow at a poor Week 1 result(s) it'd be best if it continued a worrisome trend from the previous season. Case in point: Aleksandra Krunic. Ever since the 25-year old Serb's spirited run to her maiden title at Rosmalen last summer, she's been *way* off her game. A pair of opening qualifying rounds losses this week -- 3 & 0 to Christina McHale in Brisbane, then 1 & 4 to Priscilla Hon in Sydney -- leaves the Bracelet 7-12 since her title run. She's lost five sets at love in the stretch.

Krunic saw her ranking climb to career-high #39 (from #55) after her first title, but her lack of results had her back at #55 by season's end. She'll drop into the #60's now.
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ITF PLAYER: Anna Kalinskaya/RUS
...there were just two ITF challenger events on the schedule for Week 1, with the $25K in Playford the only one held Down Under. A year after Aussie Zoe Hives (a WC recipient for this year's AO) won the inaugural City of Playford Tennis International, Hordette Kalinskaya won the follow up competition. It's the 20-year old's sixth ITF crown, but her first since 2017. She dropped just one set all week (vs. Maryna Zanevska) while putting up victories over Barbara Haas, Chloe Paquet and 19-year old Kazakh (ex-Russian) Elena Rybakina in the final.



Meanwhile, as the ITF's instantly-controversial "Transition Tour" begins, SI.com's Jon Wertheim is already (sort of) predicting it'll be thrown onto the scrap heap by 2020, and players are highlighting the gaping holes in the process...


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JUNIOR STARS: Wang Xinyu/CHN, Dasha Lopatetska/UKR and Connie Ma/USA
...Week 1's junior achievers popped up on three levels of play: on the WTA tour, the challenger circuit and on the junior national championship stage.

17-year old Wang -- the junior #7 and 2018 girls AO, Wimbledon and Youth Olympics semifinalist -- joined the Shenzhen MD via a wild card. After opening with a victory over Xun Fangying, the teenager challenged none other than Maria Sharapova and seeming had the former #1 on the ropes. She won the 1st set in a tie-break, but was soon after brought down by cramps in the 2nd. Barely able to walk, she finally retired down 5-2 in the set. Sharapova consoled her young opponent, and stayed with her in the changeover area while she recovered after the match, telling her "You played unbelievable" and giving her advice on how to avoid such an incident in the future.




In Hong Kong, 15-year old Lopatetksa (I suppose that's the official spelling of her name we're going with, as a few years ago she was listed as "Lopatetska" before it was recently listed as "Lopatetskaya," and now it's back to "Lopatetska" on the ITF site even as some individual match results vs. other players still list her as "Lopatetskaya" -- got it?) picked up her third career pro title in a $25K challenger, defeating Barbora Stefkova in the final. The Ukrainian won titles in her first two career ITF events last season, getting off to a 17-0 start in her pro career. She's now 24-3 in challenger events, while still being ranked inside the junior Top 30. Last summer Lopatetska qualfied and reached U.S. Open girls semis after posting wins over (get this) Connie Ma (another honoree this week), Claura Tauson, Eli Mandlik and Coco Gauff before finally losing in three sets to eventual champ Wang Xiyu.

Or course, it should also be noted that Dasha's Instagram account lists her as... "Lopatetskaya." (Face in palm.)

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Week to remember Winner#25k #vamostacos

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Meanwhile, at the USTA Winter Nationals at Lake Nona, Florida it was 15-year old Ma sweeping the singles and doubles titles of the 18s competition. Ma defeated Alana Wolfberg in the final, and teamed with Anna Campana to claim the doubles title. As always, Colette Lewis' Zoo Tennis is the place to go for all the details.


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DOUBLES: Nicole Melichar/Kveta Peschke (USA/CZE) and Peng Shuai/Yang Zhaoxuan (CHN/CHN)
...in Brisbane, Melichar/Peschke put together quite the interesting (and dominant) opening week during which they didn't drop a set. With a full Andreescu difference in age, at 25 and 43, respectively, the #3-seeded pair claimed their third and biggest title together (all since last May) with early wins over two intriguing duos (Kasatkina/Kontaveit and Danilovic/Potapova), then closing victories over #1-seeded Krejcikova/Siniakova and #4 Chan/Chan in the final. It's Melichar's fourth tour title, and Peschke's 32nd. The win ties the Czech for 25th on the all-time tour WD title list with Chris Evert and Liz Smylie.



Peng & Yang were home country champs in Shenzhen in their first career pairing, dropping zero sets and finishing the week with wins over Bacsinszky/Zvonareva (SF) and Duan/Voracova (F). Days before her 33rd birthday, Peng claimed her 22nd career WTA WD title (her second in Shenzhen, having won in '17 w/ Andrea Hlavackova), while the 23-year old Yang wins her fourth (she 4-5 in tour finals with seven different partners since the start of the '16 season).


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WHEELCHAIR: --
...no Wheelchair winner this week, but since Marjolein Buis is the preeminent social media chronicler of the regular goings-on at all the stops on the WC tour...



When Marjolein's in Melbourne, you know we're getting close to game time. But not before she searches out some unconventional artwork at as many hotel gyms as she can find...


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1. Auckland 2nd Round - Bianca Andreescu def. Caroline Wozniacki
...6-4/6-4. It was the world #152 vs. #3, and it was the former whose power, slice, drop shots, defense and overall fight that seized control. Aggressive and handling the pressure of the moment like it was old hat, Andreescu twice staged comebacks from love/30 to hold in the 1st, and led 4-2. After Wozniacki's MTO at 4-3, the Canadian fell behind love/40 but ultimately saved half a dozen BP before finally dropping serve. She then immediately broke back. At SP at 5-4, she pushed a short backhand at the net past the baseline, but didn't let it play on her mind and matter of factly converted SP #2 two points later. Breaking to go up 2-1 in the 2nd, the Canadian took her own MTO (for a back injury that she's had for a few months and continued to be treated for all week) and held on down the stretch, lifting her game at the end when she had the chance to close out the Dane. Her first career Top 5 win took precisely nine tour-level MD matches to become reality.


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2. Auckland QF - Julia Goerges def. Genie Bouchard
...3-6/6-3/7-6(6). Bouchard led 3-0 in the 3rd, and had a MP at 6-5. But Goerges took things to a deciding TB, played it terrifically well, and stone cold picked a TB-tying winner from the Canadian's pocket on point #14 and turned it into a converted MP.


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3. Auckland Final - Julia Goerges def. Bianca Andreescu
...2-6/7-5/6-1. Goerges was off-kilter from the get-go, and her slow start wasn't helped by Andreescu being in fine form. It was the veteran defending champ who seemed on edge, not the first-time finalist. The German took control early in the 2nd, but the Canadian battled to get back on serve and actually led 5-4 before Goerges found her stride and eventually pulled away down the stretch.
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4. Brisbane 1st Round - Kimberly Birrell def. Dasha Kasatkina
...5-7/6-4/7-6(3). Just call it the upset that officially christened the 2019 season, as #283 Birrell knocked off #10 Kasatkina in 3:07, coming back from 5-3 down in the 3rd, then avoiding squandering the match by winning a deciding TB after she'd failed to serve things out.



Sydney Q1 - Kimberly Birrell def. Kristina Mladenovic
...7-6(5)/3-6/7-6(8). The Aussie was at it again a little farther south Down Under, saving two SP in the 1st vs. the Pastry, and then a MP in the 3rd.
===============================================


5. Brisbane 2nd Round - Aliaksandra Sasnovich def. Elina Svitolina
...6-4/0-6/6-3. Try not to read too much into Svitolina's early loss in Brisbane, against the same player she'd beaten in the final to take last year's title, no less. Sasnovich chalked it up to wanting a little revenge, and passing on the risotto and mushrooms.



===============================================
6. Brisbane 2nd Round - Donna Vekic def. Kiki Bertens
...7-6(5)/1-6/7-5. Career Top 10 win #7 came for Vekic after she'd won the 1st set after being down multiple break disadvantages, and then after Bertens had served for the match at 5-4 and held two MP in the 3rd.
===============================================
7. Shenzhen 1st Round - Monica Niculescu def. Alona Ostapenko
...6-0/6-2. Ostapenko served at 43% and had a 10/35 winner/UE ratio. Oh, and Niculescu was doing stuff like this:


===============================================
8. Brisbane 2nd Round - Anett Kontaveit def. Petra Kvitova
...7-5/7-6(1). All nine of Kontaveit's career Top 10 wins have come against former slam champions.
===============================================
9. Auckland Q2 - Iga Swiatek def. Claire Liu
...3-6/7-5/6-2. In a match-up of former Wimbledon girls champs, Liu led 6-3/5-3, only to see future Polish #1 Swiatek win ten of the final twelve games.
===============================================
10. Brisbane Q2 - Karolina Muchova def. Dayana Yastremska
...6-2/5-1 ret. Hey, at least Dayana didn't retire down MP vs. the Czech as she did in one of her matches last year. This exit prevented a Down Under version of the '16 Wimbledon girls final between Yastremska and Anastasia Potapova.
===============================================
11. Brisbane 1st Round - Maria Bouzkova def. Samantha Stosur
...4-6/6-2/6-2. Stosur ushered in the new year -- literally, as the Aussie clock struck 12 midnight during the match -- with a loss on home soil. Gee, at least part of that sounds *really* familiar.
===============================================
12. Brisbane 1st Round - Ajla Tomljanovic def. Katerina Siniakova
...1-6/6-3/6-0. What was it that someone said about Siniakova getting ready for a big singles season after her Fed Cup heroics?



Yeah, I won't yet scratch that thought justyet, but only because it's Week 1 and, well, you know.
===============================================
HM- Auckland Q1 - Danielle Lao def. Astra Sharma 6-3/3-6/7-6(7)
Auckland Q2 - Danielle Lao def. Asia Muhammad 5-7/6-1/7-6(1)
...no one can accuse The Little Giant of not being ready for the season to start. In her opening two matches, she saved 1 (vs. Sharma) and 3 (vs. Muhammad) MP en route to victory.
===============================================








1. Hopman Cup rr MX - Bencic/Federer (SUI) def. S.WILLIAMS/Tiafoe (USA)
...4-2/4-3(3). Oh, yeah, did you hear? Something great and rare happened in Perth. Good thing it happened in 2019, while it still could.



===============================================
2. Auckland QF - Bianca Andreescu def. VENUS WILLIAMS
...6-7(1)/6-1/6-3. There was no step back for Andreescu after upsetting Wozniacki. She simply followed up by beating a Williams, despite twice losing a break lead in the 1st set and falling behind a set and a break at 7-6/1-0. With one shoulder against the wall, the Canadian won eleven straight games until she led 5-0 in the 3rd, having broken Venus six straight times. Williams closed to 5-3, but Andreescu finished things out anyway.


===============================================
3. Brisbane Final - KAROLINA PLISKOVA def. Lesia Tsurenko
...4-6/7-5/6-2. Tsurenko led 6-4/5-3, but Pliskova turned things around to win her second Brisbane title in three years.
===============================================
4. Auckland 1st Round - VENUS WILLIAMS def. Victoria Azarenka
...6-3/1-6/6-3. Vika kicks off her first Dorothy Tour stint since 2016 by falling for the fifth time in seven career matches vs. Venus. This was their first meeting since 2015.


===============================================
5. Brisbane 2nd Round - NAOMI OSAKA def. Destanee Aiava
...6-3/6-2. Aiava had saved a MP in qualifying (vs. Minella) to reach the MD, then upset Mladenovic in the 1st Round. She then faced off with the player she's sometimes mistaken for. That one didn't turn out nearly as well.


===============================================
HM- Brisbane SF - Lesia Tsurenko def. NAOMI OSAKA
...6-2/6-2. The 26 UE performance -- and her immediate introspective response to it -- that'll surely be referenced down the line if it precedes some sort of fabulous follow up result from the U.S. Open champ.
===============================================




Sakkari and Tsitsipas didn't win the Hopman Cup, but she'll always have this backhand return off a Federer serve on MP...

















In case you missed it this week, unfortunately, Safarova's career has either ended a little bit earlier than anticipated, or will be extended a bit as she awaits a wild card (in Prague?) in order to officially say goodbye from *between* the white lines.
















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**BACKSPIN WEEK 1 PLAYERS-OF-THE-WEEK**
2002 Venus Williams, USA
2003 Serena Williams, USA
2004 Lindsay Davenport/USA, Eleni Daniilidou/GRE (co-PoW)
2005 Elena Dementieva, RUS
2006 Lucie Safarova, CZE
2007 Dinara Safina, RUS
2008 Li Na, CHN
2009 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2010 Kim Clijsters, BEL
2011 Vera Zvonareva, RUS
2012 Petra Kvitova, CZE
2013 Serena Williams, USA
2014 Serena Williams, USA
2015 Maria Sharapova/RUS, Simona Halep/ROU (co-PoW)
2016 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2017 Karolina Pliskova, CZE
2018 Simona Halep, ROU
2019 Julia Goerges, GER

**CAREER WEEK 1 TITLES - active**
2...Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2...Eleni Daniilidou, GRE
2...JULIA GOERGES, GER
2...KAROLINA PLISKOVA, CZE
2...Serena Williams, USA
2...Venus Williams, USA
1...Lauren Davis, USA
1...Simona Halep, ROU
1...Jelena Jankovic, SRB
1...Kaia Kanepi, EST
1...Petra Kvitova, CZE
1...ARYNA SABALENKA, BLR
1...Lucie Safarova, CZE (ret.)
1...Maria Sharapova, RUS
1...Katerina Siniakova, CZE
1...Sloane Stephens, USA
1...Elina Svitolina, UKR
1...Yanina Wickmayer, BEL
--
NOTE: Srebotnik won 1 singles title

**CAREER "DOROTHY TOUR" (AUS/NZL) TITLES - active**
9...Serena Williams, USA
4...Victoria Azarenka, BLR
3...Eleni Daniilidou, GRE
2...JULIA GOERGES, GER
2...Simona Halep, ROU
2...Angelique Kerber, GER
2...Petra Kvitova, CZE
2...Elise Mertens, BEL
2...KAROLINA PLISKOVA, CZE
2...Maria Sharapova, RUS
2...Venus Williams, USA

**HOPMAN CUP CHAMPIONS**
1989 Czechoslovakia (Sukova/Mecir)
1990 Spain (A.Sanchez/E.Sanchez)
1991 Yugoslavia (Seles/Prpic)
1992 Switzerland (Maleeva-Fragniere/Hlasek)
1993 Germany (Graf/Stich)
1994 Czech Republic (Novotna/Korda)
1995 Germany (A.Huber/Bo.Becker)
1996 Croatia (Majoli/Ivanisevic)
1997 United States (Gimelstob/Rubin)
1998 Slovak Republic (Habsudova/Kucera)
1999 Australia (Dokic/Philippoussis)
2000 South Africa (Coetzer/W.Ferreira)
2001 Switzerland (Hingis/Federer)
2002 Spain (Sanchez-Vicario/Robredo)
2003 United States (S.Williams/Blake)
2004 United States (Davenport/Blake)
2005 Slovak Republic (Hantuchova/Hrbaty)
2006 United States (Raymond/Dent)
2007 Russia (Petrova/Tursunov)
2008 United States (S.Williams-Shaughnessy/Fish)
2009 Slovak Republic (Cibulkova/Hrbaty)
2010 Spain (Martinez-Sanchez/Robredo)
2011 United States (Mattek-Sands/Isner)
2012 Czech Republic (Kvitova/Berdych)
2013 Spain (Medina-Garrigues/Verdasco)
2014 France (Cornet/Tsonga)
2015 Poland (A.Radwanska/Janowicz)
2016 Australia Green (Gavrilova/Kyrgios)
2017 France (Mladenovic/Gasquet)
2018 Switzerland (Bencic/Federer)
2019 Switzerland (Bencic/Federer)

**ACTIVE WTA TITLE LEADERS**
72 - Serena Williams, USA (last title: 2017)
49 - Venus Williams, USA (2016)
36 - Maria Sharapova, RUS (2017)
30 - Caroline Wozniacki, DEN (2018)
25 - Petra Kvitova, CZE (2018)
20 - Victoria Azarenka, BLR (2016)
18 - Simona Halep, ROU (2018)
18 - Svetlana Kuznetsova, RUS (2018)
13 - Elina Svitolina, UKR (2018)
12 - Angelique Kerber, GER (2018)
12 - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS (2018)
12 - KAROLINA PLISKOVA, CZE (2019)
12 - Vera Zvonareva, RUS (2011)
--
ALSO: 15 - Jelena Jankovic, SRB (2015)

**CAREER PREMIER TITLES - ACTIVE**
20...Serena Williams, USA [6/7/7]
17...Petra Kvitoav, CZE [3/5/9]
16...Caroline Wozniacki, DEN [3/3/10]
13...Victoria Azarenka, BLR [6/3/4]
13...Maria Sharapova, RUS [3/5/5]
9...Simona Halep, ROU [3/4/2]
7...KAROLINA PLISKOVA, CZE [0/1/6]
7...Angelique Kerber, GER [0/0/7]

**VENUS WILLIAMS LOSSES vs. PLAYERS #100+**
NR - Kim Clijsters (2009 U.S. Open 4th)
#223 - Peng Shuai (2016 Beijing 1st)
#152 - BIANCA ANDREESCU (2019 AUCKLAND QF)
#143 - Petra Kvitova (2008 Memphis 1st)
#140 - Sonya Jeyaseelan (1999 A.Island 2nd)
#125 - Barbara Schwartz (1999 R.Garros 4th)
#119 - Kateryna Bondarenko (2015 Istanbul 1st)
#115 - Nathalie Dechy (1997 Toronto 1st)
#109 - Olga Puchkova (2013 Florianopolis SF)

**2019 AO WILD CARDS**
Destanee Aiava/AUS: the 18-year old will appear in her third straight AO main draw via a wild card. Last year in Melbourne, she held (in a 15-minute game) for a 5-2 1st set lead vs. Halep, then undertook a 10-minute off-court look-see from trainers. When play resumed. Halep saved two SP, witnessed an odd moment when a confused Aiava lost track of the set score and looked to changes sides as she wandered around the court, and ultimately won in straights despite badly rolling her ankle in the 2nd set. Aiava knocked off Mladenovic in 1st Round this Brisbane this week.
Kimberly Birrell/AUS: the Aussie, 20, won Tennis Australia's Wild Card Playoff event (def. Astra Sharma in the final) to assure her slam MD debut. In 2019, she's already upset Dasha Kasatkina (1st Rd./Brisbane) and Mladenovic (Q1/Sydney).
Clara Burel/FRA: the 18-year old Pastry, the 2018 junior #1, will make her slam MD debut in Melbourne. Last season, Burel was a hard-luck runner-up in the junior AO, US and Youth Olympics finals before finally winning the season-ending Junior Masters event and claiming the top girls ranking.
Zoe Hives/AUS: at 22, Hives is the oldest wild card making her slam debut at this year's AO. 5-0 in career ITF singles/doubles finals in her career, she finished second to Priscilla Hon in Tennis Australia's multi-event WC challenge series late last year.
Priscilla Hon/AUS: Hon makes her second career slam MD appearance three years after her debut Down Under at age 17. She lost in qualifying at all four majors in '18, but won the TA Wild Card Challenge series to avoid a similar fate ahead of this year's AO.
Peng Shuai/CHN: about to turn 33 this week, the former slam semifinalist ('14 US) has rebounded quickly since serving three months of her original six-month suspension (quite simply the stupidest suspension in tennis history) for an apparent attempt (along w/ her coach, who was also suspended) to pay off her Wimbledon doubles partner to get her to pull out of the event after the sign-up deadline so that Peng could play with someone else (i.e. someone better who was now available). Peng closed out '18 by winning consecutive WTA 125 Series and $100K challengers, as well as claiming the Asia/Pacific Wild Card Playoff event to reach the AO MD. She won the Shenzhen doubles title in Week 1.
Ellen Perez/AUS: the University of Georgia product made her slam debut at the US Open in 2016, and posted her first tour-level MD win over Mladenovic in Sydney last year. Sheesh, Kiki has quite a bad history against these wild cards, doesn't she? What are the odds she draws one of them in the 1st Round?
Whitney Osuigwe/USA: the 16-year old former girls #1 and '17 RG junior champ won the USTA's multi-event Wild Card Challenge to earn a spot in her second consecutive slam MD. Osuigwe slipped onto the court in Perth this past week, replacing an injured Garbine Muguruza as a fill-in for Spain in a mixed doubles match alongside David Ferrer.



Shockingly, the following announcement was made without the assistance of an accompanying selfie.



And...



Hmmm... (nodding while agreeing with Judy's second thought, and figuring that at least one of the people she's thinking about was the same one who popped into *my* mind).



Well, good news, great news and worrisome news in the life of Carl & family this past week.

First, Carlo made the team! (Yay!) Not that it didn't come with a little controversy, naturally. Our favorite rookie elker survived the final cut and joined his Saskatoon Berrypicker teammates as a second string hornblaster, the backup to the team's living legend/aging folk hero, Saskatechwan's own Bud "Windy" Windsor. Carlo was given the number 7, though some of the team's fans were offended that he simply had "Carlo" on his back, as they flooded Twitter with opinions that as a 2nd Round draft pick he hadn't earned the right to go by one name. Of course, he was able to diffuse the situation by explaining that he only HAS one name, so...

Though, in truth, Carlo's explanation WAS at least a *slight* fib, as we all know his birth name is actually Carlito III, though just like his dad Carl (Carlito II) he has never actually gone by the name. Whether or not this came about simply because Carl respected his dearly departed dad too much, or because he just didn't want to waste time saying (or hearing) those two extra syllables is up for debate... and no has asked Carl about that in a LONG time. Well, at least no one who's still around to tell anyone what he said.


In Week 1 of the World Elking League season, the Berrypickers faced off with their blood rivals, the Regina Force. The Force were heavy favorites in the match-up. While the Berrypickers were seen as the more athletic group (with significant height and stacking advantages), the defending champion club from Regina were viewed as the more "professional and prepared" group, with four WEL titles in the last seven years. The Force were led by #1 overall draft pick Engelbert Hardington IV (or "Eh4" to the locals), setting up a week-long series of news reports about the old legend (Windy) facing off with the player many think will take his place as the "face of Elking."

But, as it turned out, Carlo stole the show. Before the jersey situation, he'd previously been known mostly for the trouble Carl has had with tournament officials. That's all changed now (well, mostly, as... uh, I'll get to that later).

Hardington staked Regina to a 24-2 lead with a fantastic scoring play from his back at the end of the 1st period, but then the Berrypickers' exceptional squishing skills turned the momentum of the match. For a while. When Force all-star Puck Moore scored a huge 10-point squish w/ 2:00 left to regain the lead it seemed that victory belonged to the champs. But a second half injury to ol' Windy proved to be a blessing in disguise, as he was replaced by none other than Carlo. After taking most of the second half to get his elking legs, Carlo scored a field-length 6-point stack with :03 left to steal a shocking 72-68 victory! Carlo was carried off the field by Windy, who hinted in post-match interviews that he may be ready to call it quits after this season... and that "the 'pickers may have found my replacement."

In the locker room (well, really an old circus tent set up on the edge of the forest), Carlo's call from a happy mom Carla (all the way from her new specially-build home atop the Great Wall of China!) was aired live all throughout Saskatchewan during the post-game show.

Afterward, cameras caught up with Carl outside the competition area (he's been banned, remember, from attending WEL matches due to his "elking dad" reputation and history of assaulting the sport's various officials). He said, "Carlo do what taught. He learn from best." When asked if he was talking about Windy, Carl bellowed "No! Me!" and attacked the reporter who asked the question. The gentleman reportedly spent the night in a hospital in traction (he was doing better this morning), while Carl was last seen bounding over a fallen Alder tree and disappearing into the far distance. A warrant has been issued for his arrest, but Carl's whereabouts are currently unknown.

Like father, like son, Carlo is once again at the center of still more controversy. He and fellow rookie Hardington exchanged jerseys after the game, as is an elking post-match tradition. On Sunday morning, though, the news broke that Carlo's jersey had been put up for sale on eBay. It has since been removed. But the incident will surely provide more hateful fodder for the Regina/Saskatoon rematch later this season that will surely have Saskatchewan and the entire WEL crazy with anticipation.

WORLD ELKING LEAGUE - DIVISIONS
=MAPLE LEAF=
Alberta Bison
Regina Force
Saskatoon Berrypickers
Yukon Malamutes
=ROCKY MOUNTAIN=
Cheyenne Killer Clowns
Colorado Range
Helena Guardians
Idaho Potato Bugs
=ASIAN=
EC Astana
The Herders of Mongolia
Nanchang Heroes
Siberian Tsars

To be continued...










All for now.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 12:28 AM 

9 Comments:

Blogger colt13 said...

So in all 3 tournaments, the winner dropped the first set, came close to losing in the second, and took control in the third.

Depending on what Halep and Kerber do this week, there is a chance that 9 women will have a chance to be #1 after the Open. With #1 defending finals points, #2 SF points, and #3 the title, there are a huge chunk of points coming off.

Lopatetska will confuse me like Douchevina.

AO qualies out and Zvonareva is the #1 seed, opens vs Sharma.

#9 Kostyuk in a winnable section.

Clones Broady and Garcia Perez have a possible 2nd rd matchup.

Goerges getting in the 9-16 bracket is huge. It means she avoids a possible 3rd rd clash vs Serena, who knocked her out of 2 slams last year.

Stat of the Week- 269- The amount of strikeouts for Frank Tanana in 1975.

Tanana led the league in strikeouts that year, as well as ERA at 2.49. Just 21, the fireballing lefty use a 100 mph fastball to have a winning record in each of his first six seasons.

What does this have to do with tennis? Well, there is a comparison coming, and you are not going to like it. You see, Tanana injured his arm in 1978, and although he won the pennant clinching game for the California Angels in 1979, it was a season that was a tell.

He missed three months that year with tendinitis, and also couldn't reach 100 on the radar gun. So how do you learn to win without your biggest weapon? It took 5 years, but after a trade to his hometown Detroit Tigers, he reinvented himself as a pitcher that could change speeds, not throw hard.

This culminated in what he considers his career highlight, winning the pennant clinching game for the 1987 Detroit Tigers.

And there is somebody on the WTA circuit that may be heading down that same path. Alona Ostapenko. Now it could be a bit of rust from both the wrist and the elbow problems, but what we saw last week seems much more than that. The two handed backhand looked close to normal, but with a few exceptions, that forehand is a good 10 mph slower than it was previously.

I don't have official stats to back that up, but if you want to take a look at somebody who lost the fastball and hasn't learned how to win without it, look no farther than Sabine Lisicki.

Holder of a 131 mph serve, at her peak she was routinely cracking 118 mph serves. The last couple of years, she has been a good 10 mph slower. That, and a lack of durability as hindered her way back to the upper echelons of the game, though she does have a chance in AO qualies this week.

So what does the future hold for Ostapenko? Hopefully that she gets herself checked out sooner that later, because you don't want her to injure the shoulder compensating for her other injuries. And if I play her, just pound the forehand, as it is a liability for the time being.

Quiz Time!
Sabine Lisicki has 13 career Top 10 wins. At which tournament does she have the highest total?

A.Miami
B.Stuttgart
C.Wimbledon
D.Beijing
E.Stanford
F.Charleston



More Up/Down Side with another premier.






Answer!

This was not a trick question, as Lisicki did have a Top 10 win at all of the choices listed.

(A)Miami is wrong, although the fact that she beat both Ivanovic and Chakvetazde makes it the only hard court event in which she had multiple wins.

The answer is (C)Wimbledon, because from 2009-2015, Lisicki at Wimbledon was a thing. 7 of those 13 wins were there, knocking off the likes of Serena, Wozniacki, Li, Kuznetsova, Bartoli, Sharapova, and Radwanska. Slam winners all over the place.

Mon Jan 07, 10:05:00 AM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

5 On the Up Side.

1.Sakkari- In 2018, Elise Mertens went from Hopman Cup to Hobart winner. San Jose finalist tries to do the same.
2.Kerber-Tries to repeat what she did last year, going from Hopman Cup to winning Sydney. In a tough section of the draw, but expecting pullouts by others.
3.Cornet-Looking like a threat to reach the 2nd week at AO. Plus normally plays well the week before a slam, so a deep run this weeks wouldn't be a shock.
4.Linette-Don't like her draw this week, but is the #1 Polish player, and deserves notice before Swiatek passes her. Plus she is assured of being in the AO main draw, Swiatek has to come through qualies-though she should be favored over Danilovic.
5.Yastremska-Fits the profile of those who win the week before a slam.

Mon Jan 07, 10:11:00 AM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

5 On the Down Side.

1.Sharapova-Maria used to be money in a third set, now hasn't played one since Wimbledon, or won one since Roland Garros. Just making it to when the seeds meet in the 3rd rd would be good.
2.Muguruza-As Todd pointed out, Virginie Tremblay is the physio that was in Andreescu's box all week. Can she do some work with Muguruza? Or figure out what the (redacted) Muguruza does all offseason? Case in point- 2019, replaced at Hopman Cup by Osuigwe. 2018 walkover in Sydney. 2017 ret in Brisbane. 2016 ret in Brisbane. For a former #1, a multiple slam winner, and shockingly with those stats, a former Hobart winner, she should be hitting the ground running like Azarenka did back in 2012 instead of wasting her prime.
3.Mladenovic- Since she beat #40 Siniakova at Birmingham, she has gone 12-16. That in itself is not the red flag. What is, is that of those 12 wins, only 1 has been against a player in the Top 50. That was #10 Goerges, and even that comes with as asterik as that was due to retirement.
4.Halep-Overall, this is an Up if she is truly healthy. But the training videos mainly showed her hitting but not running, so that is a concern. Nature also is, as rain delays and heat breaks might help, but also hinder. Plus what about those that don't want to nurture? The questionable MTO? The toilet break? The change of outfit? Just to see if the back stiffens up. There is a lot on the line for a woman who may lose the #1 ranking in 3 weeks, plus doesn't want to be the dubious #1 to lose back to back slam 1st rds.
5.Keys-It isn't just about Keys, but what she represents. Last year, every woman who skipped the warmup tournaments or Hopman Cup lost AO first round. There are six women who fit that right now-barring a late pullout from Hobart/Sydney. They are Keys, Peterson, Vondrousova, Kanepi, Gasparyan, and Vandeweghe. 3 or 4 would be the favorite on paper in normal circumstances, but expect most if not all, to lose.

Mon Jan 07, 10:30:00 AM EST  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

Ah, you read my mind -- I was going to say Dasha (geez, and there are already a number of those, too) was "the new Douchevina/Dushevina/whatevervina." ;)

And I believe (by her mother, I think) it was revealed after she won RG that Ostapenko had already had shoulder problems as a teenager. So... red flag?

QUIZ: (Written before I saw the answer.) Hmmm, seemed like a trick question, so I didn't go with the strikingly obvious (Wimbledon) and chose Miami instead. (Written after I saw the answer.) Grrrrrrrr.

As I've noted before, Muguruza looks like she might go down with one of the craziest career stat lines in history. She has two slams, and could easily win #3 and #4 before she's through (maybe even get a Career Slam, as she's already got the two "toughest" to take in RG and SW19), but could also never (or just barely) break ten TOTAL titles in her career. Li is a Hall of Famer with only 9, but Garbi's numbers are going to really confuse future generations.

Good point about Halep. We've seen her hit, but not do all the rest of the things that *make* her game what it is. That said, she might be one of the few players who could benefit from the new AO 3rd set TB rule.

Really interesting stat on players playing their first match of the year in Melbourne. Of course, some of that (both years) is likely due to nursing injuries, so they had/have question marks going in.

Mon Jan 07, 12:24:00 PM EST  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

Since I've cut way back on the weekly picks, I'll have a go at AO qualifying. Of course, I've unofficially tried this a few times in the past and am NOT very good at picking out the best fruit at the stand, so to speak.

Predicted Final Qualifying Round (Q3) match-ups (if I'm lucky, I'll get maybe two qualifiers right, I figure):

Section 1: #25 Khromacheva d. #1 Zvonareva
Section 2: #22 Doi d. Soler Espinosa
Section 3: Taylor d. #18 Gibbs
Section 4: #4 Andreescu d. Hradecka (likely a heart, not head, pick)
Section 5: #28 Muchova d. #5 Kalinina
Section 6: Swiatek d. Lao
Section 7: #7 Kudermetova d. Wang Xiyu
Section 8: Zanevska d. Kalinskaya
Section 9: #9 Kostyuk d. Allertova
Section 10: #21 Dart d. #10 Jorovic
Section 11: #30 Sharipova d. Rybakina
Section 12: Fett d. Tomova
Section 13: #13 Bouzkova d. Nara
Section 14: (WC) Wallace d. Broady
Section 15: (WC) Liang d. #15 Stollar
Section 16: Witthoeft d. Haddad Maia

Bracing for 0-for-16.

Mon Jan 07, 01:10:00 PM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

Halep was maybe 60%. Barty did a good job of exposing her movement.

Just shows how tough it is to come back from injury. Current losing streaks-Ostapenko 4, Halep 5, Buzarnescu 6, Vandeweghe 9.

Wed Jan 09, 09:43:00 AM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

It is official. Nine women will have the chance to be #1 in two weeks time. So let the fun begin!

10 On the Up Side-Asia/Pacific Edition.

1.Ka.Pliskova- Leaning in a different direction before the draw, then side eyeing myself when Muchova got places vs her, she is the choice. Already with a title, she fits the criteria of having reached a final before the Open. Wozniacki reached the Auckland final last year, and in 9 of the last 10 years, at least one of the finalists has reached one in a warmup tournament. The one that wasn't should be obvious-the all Williams matchup in 2017.
2.Sabalenka-In this decade, Ostapenko won her first title at a slam, Osaka her 2nd, Muguruza her 3rd, Schiavone Her 4th and Kvitova her 5th. So having 3 titles isnt a red flag. What is, and still keeping her here anyway, is that she has giant killer Tsurenko, continual matchup problem Kvitova, and the person who knocked her out last year in Barty in her section. So she will need to be at her best.
3.Goerges- Represents the underdog. Also in a section which seems like it would have a potential first time finalist. A longer shot that the two above, she reached a final and won, so stays on the short list. Match vs Kerber could throw the quarter into chaos.
4.Svitolina-This high because of the YEC. This low because of the warmup tournament. In the last 16 years, we have had 4 women win without playing a warmup tournament-Sharapova in 2008, Serena in 2003, 2005, and 2015. But only once in that time has someone played, lost their only match, and then won the title. Ironically, that was Mauresmo in 2005, who like Svitolina, came in having won the YEC. Has a tough early match vs the Ace Queen. No, not Pliskova(2nd), or Goerges(3rd), but Kuzmova.
5.S.Williams-Before the draw, I assumed that it would be a boost for the seeded players that were in Halep's quarter. Williams negates that. Also, on paper gets a break because as someone who has struggles vs Top 10 players since her return, she gets a compromised #1, and the only Top 10 player she beat in Pliskova. If 24 doesn't happen here, the chances will dwindle with each passing slam.
6.Kerber- Highest ranked player with expectations, playing well enough to get slam #4.
7.Sakkari- Don't really like her draw, but watch her get props when sh "upsets" Ostapenko. Truthfully, she is the favorite on current form. Plus, she played Hopman Cup. Starting with Boucherd in 2014, at least one person from there has reached SF every year. Even had 2 slam winners last year in Kerber and Osaka. Is that enough of a draw to save the event?
8.Tsurenko- Had the same amount of point as Svitolina in slams last year. Round 3 match vs Sabalenka is the proverbial David vs Goliath, and should be fun.
9.Strycova- Darkhorse for a doubles title? She's gone from Sestini, to Safarova, to Vondrousova. And since Marketa hasn't played yet, that's still up in the air. But there is an opportunity, with Vesnina still out, one of the winners of the last slam in Vandeweghe out, and Mattek-Sands/Schuurs still new, to steal one.
10.Andreescu- Made it through qualies, and gets somebody with less experience in Osuigwe. Probably out in rd 2, but a good week overall.

Fri Jan 11, 09:38:00 AM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

10 On the Down Side.

1.Collins- The new Riske. Remember when Risk had a 10 match losing streak at slams? She kept running into seeds. Collins is 0-5 in MD, and for the 5th time in 6 tries, and 4th time in a row, gets a seed in Goerges. Lost in qualies here last year, so first time in MD here. Also has the Nicole Gibbs problem of being less than outside of the US. 44% of her points come from Miami, and 54% from IW/Miami. She really will have strike gold(oil) in Doha and Dubai to stay in the Top 80.
2.Konta- Liked her play early this year, but retired from her qualies match with a neck injury. Then got LL spot, but wasn't cleared. If she plays, gets the same opponent she retired against in Tomljanovic. If she doesn't, Gibbs, Kostyuk, Jorovic, and Brady are on the roulette wheel to replace her.
3.Bouchard- I really liked what I saw from her recently. Seems to have toned up some, and is more aggressive. That is huge, because she isn't a natural mover, and is a defensive liability. So being offensive and hitting winners minimizes that. Only here because of a potential 2nd rd matchup vs Serena.
4.Kastakina- Slam SF coming as soon as the French. But Kasatkina is the WTA equivalent of Gonzaga. They can beat Duke and Kansas, then lose to BYU. Her mission, should she choose to accept it, is to win the matches she should. We know about the wins vs #1's and Top 5's, but too many losses to Birrell types is a red flag. Probably the underdog to Bacinszky, but not an upset if she loses.
5.Osaka- In a tricky section with Hsieh, and Wang, expected to have her breakout slam here, plus Svitolina. Even though months have passed, still the first slam after a title. Half of the first timers lose, and gets a player that has beaten her in Linette. Plus she hasn't won a title since. Normally for players not to have won between slams, it is the Channel Slam. Serena did that in 2015. Serena also did this the unconventional way, winning Wimbledon in 2016, and AO in 2017, but the AO was only the 5th event after Wimbledon. The ridiculous way was the Muguruza way, who won the French in 2016, and 23 tournaments later, finally picked up another title at Wimbledon in 2017. So Osaka would have to beat the trends to win.
6.Halep- Before the draw, I though Halep would make it to the seeds. Kenin plays her 2nd rd, and might get a win over the reigning #1, which is up for grabs. Realistically, we know why there have been so many losses, but statistically it looks bad. Arguably the biggest longshot for a #1 to win a title since Azarenka at the French. The silver lining is that Halep gave the Romanians what they had been wanting for 40 years. here's hoping that it won't be 40 more.
7.Buzarnescu- On this list because of the 6 match losing streak, but finding some form. Has a 51/49 match against Venus. Has the talent to win, but in a stadium that will probably be pro Venus, can Dr. Buz mentally keep it together? She's been known to be visibly agitated even when winning.
8.Kvitova-Kind of unfair, but she has a habit-see Connecticut, of winning the week before a slam, getting our hopes up, and disappearing by the 3rd rd. If that happens, Bencic probably does it.
9.USA-I have a sense of humor about most things, except the wall, that is idiotic. I realize that people buy foreign cars because the American ones break down. So our tennis players are the equivalent of Pontiacs, breaking down. No Vandeweghe, no Bellis, no Rogers.
10.Ostapenko- Baseball is 5 weeks away from spring training. Ostapenko needs something similar. I still think that she is playing injured, but if she isn't, she looks about 5 weeks away from putting up a good result.

Fri Jan 11, 10:12:00 AM EST  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

In putting together the wrap up for the weekend, I realized how poorly Kasatkina has performed in Australia in her career. I don't know if there's some flaw in her offseason training or something, but she's NEVER gotten out of the gates quickly (or in an even moderately average way) as a pro.

Speaking of Down Under blues. I was thinking I might see Stephens (though she *did* finally get her first win in AUS in four years in Sydney) slip onto that list.

Strycova vs. Putintseva in the AO 1st Round. That'll be an interesting one. ;)

Meanwhile, sometimes the best option is the one under your nose? Through two weeks, the now reconnected Chans have reached *two* finals.

And... yay, Schmiedy! Nice to see AKS looking good early in a season for the first time in ages.

Fri Jan 11, 11:31:00 AM EST  

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