Thursday, February 07, 2019

Fed Cup I Preview: Let the Games Begin

Well, it's time to unwrap our first helping of Fed Cup-related treats in 2019.


The Czechs are set to take the first step toward extending their dynastic run yet another year, but can a confident Romanian squad led by Simona Halep pull an upset and finally take advantage of their depth while they still can? Will it be France or Belgium, both breaking in brand-spanking-new captains, to emerge as a Fed Cup finalist contender? Can the Belarusian "Dream Team" go on the road to Germany and get the win that would move the nation within one round of a second FC final in three years? And can the Bannerettes, two seasons removed from a title, overcome an Aussie squad and get Captain Kathy Rinaldi within arm's reach of the U.S.'s first three-year run of final appearances since 1996?

Answers to come soon. We're waiting patiently. Well, sort of.



Let's have a closer look...







*WORLD GROUP 1st Round*
Romania at Czech Republic (Ostrava, CZE - HCI)
ROU: Halep,Buzarnescu,Begu,A.Bogdan,Niculescu (Capt: Florin Segarceanu)
CZE: Ka.Pliskova,Siniakova,Vondrousova,Krejcikova (Capt: Petr Pala)
...years ago, I felt that the quality of Romania's depth of talent meant the nation could make a run to a Fed Cup title by 2017. After several of the players (Buzarnescu, Cirstea, Dulgheru, etc.) went through various down phases of their careers, everything almost came together perfectly three years ago when the Swarmettes nearly knocked off the Czechs in the 1st Round, losing the deciding doubles and then seeing the Maidens go on to win their third straight FC title. Well, opportunity has come around again for Romania. And, with some of the country's depth nearly wrung out without any GenPDQ replacements on deck, this might be the last legit chance to make that run.

But how legit is it, really? Naturally, Romania has once again drawn the "toughest out" in the Czechs, and will have to play the defending champs on the road. The Czech Republic has reached ten consecutive semifinals, won eleven straight home ties (13-1 overall) and eighteen in a row on hard court. The Maidens have even gone 7-1 in deciding doubles matches during their dominant run. While Petra Kvitova won't be in Ostrava (and Lucie Safarova is retired, with Barbora Strycova having bowed out of future FC play), Karolina Pliskova (10-4 in FC singles, all indoors, and 10-1 in 2019) and Katerina Siniakova (who assumed the key team role in last year's final) will be the top two singles competitors. Romania has a shot to at least take things to the doubles again. Halep (16-5 FC) needn't go undefeated to do it, either. Remember, Siniakova hasn't carried over her FC confidence/momentum into the new year (she's 0-4 in MD matches), and the prospect of her going 0-2 this weekend is certainly in play.

Three years ago, Pliskova's three-set win over Halep (after she'd defeated Kvitova) allowed the tie to go to the doubles, where the Czechs had a decided advantage. That's still the case. If the Romanians can get the necessary two singles wins, that means the responsibility would shift onto the shoulders of Krejcikova/Siniakova -- the world's #1 doubles duo -- against whatever combination Captain Segarceanu would put up. So... maybe Simona *needs* to go 2-0 (with Michaela Buzarnescu, in her first FC singles action since '12, getting a win over Siniakova) for the Swarmette dream weekend to take place. It's do-able, though not *likely*.

PICK: CZE def. ROU 3-2 (deciding doubles)
...most teams might stiffen up at the thought of being the defending champs and (still) favorites and being pushed to the brink in a deciding doubles match. But for all the up-and-down moments some of the Czechs might experience on the regular tour, their spines strengthen and hearts grow in the team atmosphere of Fed Cup. The Maidens have won seven DD's in their six title seasons over the last eight years, including three in three ties in 2016 (all on the road). Under such circumstances, the Czech relish the opportunity. They would here, as well.


France at Belgium (Liege, BEL - HCI)
FRA: Garcia,Cornet,Parmentier,Mladenovic,Ferro (Capt: Julien Benneteau)
BEL: Mertens,Van Uytvanck,Flipkens,Bonaventure (Capt: Johan van Herck)
...the story coming into this tie will be the reuniting of the French team that reached the '16 final (though minus maybe the key ingredient to that success, former Captain Mauresmo), but if things don't work out it could end up being how the FFT managed to help break it in the first place.

In a rare occurrence for teams this high up in the FC pecking order, both France and Belgium are debuting first-time captains in Liege, as Julien Benneteau and Johan van Herck step up. The return of Caroline Garcia to the French fold, alongside former teammate/doubles partner Kristina Mladenovic in what I believe is their first crossing of paths in even a glancing way since since their off-court dust-up two seasons ago (they just missed out on facing each other on multiple occasions in singles in 2017-18), makes the Pastry squad appear strong. But. Remember, it was the "whispering power" of Mauresmo that guided the team to success a few years ago. Even Mladenovic has noted that Benneteau will be a less fiery leader than either Mauresmo or more recent captain Yannick Noah. Will that work with this group? Combine that with Alize Cornet's woeful FC record (2-14!!), the poor starts to the season from both Garcia and Mladenovic (0-7 combined), and not really knowing what level of trust we'd see if things came down to the doubles and the latter two being called upon to play *together* for the first time in ages, and the French squad's prospect get a bit hazy. Mladenovic comes in as the *fourth*-highest ranked player on this team, but has played some of her most inspired tennis of the season in FC the last two years (going 6-2 in singles since her 16-14 3rd set loss to Pliskova in the '16 final and her and Garcia's deciding doubles defeat).

All the noise surrounding the Pastries makes it easy to overlook the host Belgians, but the Waffles might be better situated for success this weekend. Mertens is 6-1 in FC singles, while Van Uytvanck (very good on indoor HC) is 12-5. Flipkens provides a veteran presence, despite her lacking career FC numbers (12-20 ws, 2-10 wd). While the French are looking to recapture more recent glory, the Belgians will be trying to reach the SF round for the first time since 2011.

PICK: BEL def. FRA 3-1
...it would be a great thing for all involved if this works out for the French, but if it doesn't the story might devolve into how the FFT strong-armed Garcia, alienated other players, and didn't consult Mauresmo over how everything went down two years ago. Mladenovic has never really been the same player in singles since the firestorm (a flame which she then fanned with petty flair), and Garcia, after an initial great response, has seen her results level off considerably. I could see this one going either way, but I'll go with my gut and put the Waffles through over the Pastries, avenging the 3-2 road loss at the hands of France in last year's 1st Round.


Belarus at Germany (Braunschweig, GER - HCI)
BLR: Sabalenka,Sasnovich,Azarenka,Lapko,Marozava (Capt: Tatiana Poutchek)
GER: Maria,Petkovic,Barthel,Siegemund,Groenefeld (Capt: Jans Gerlach)
...finally, it's the Belarusian team we've been dreaming about, and with neither Kerber nor Goerges in the fold (and the tie taking place on hard court, rather than a clay surface that would more benefit the host nation), they'll take on a German "B" team. This had better go as planned.

With Vika Azarenka finally able to travel with the team, '17 finalist Belarus now has the sort of team that could go out and *win* a Fed Cup title. So if they fail to get over the first hurdle, a road tie against Germany without the nation's only Top 20 (or Top 50) players, it might be difficult to avoid seeing some heads roll. It's not that the veteran Germans (average age: 30.4) aren't capable of pulling an upset or two, but the recent FC history of the Belarusians, now with Azarenka as a reliable additional option, says that in *no* way should they be able to pull off *three* of them to win this tie.

PICK: BLR def. GER 3-0
...this is the most difficult tie of the weekend for which to reasonably construct a reliable upset scenario, so I'm not even going to try. If Germany wins, it'll quite simply be a huge fail for Belarus since the nation very well could be the favorite in a semifinal tie vs. either the U.S. or Australia, with a legitimate shot to challenge the likes of the Czechs in a possible final.


Australia at United States (Asheville, NC, USA - HCI)
AUS: Barty,Gavrilova,Hon,Birrell,Sharma (Capt: Alicia Molik)
USA: Keys,Collins,Kenin,Melichar (Capt: Kathy Rinaldi)
...the Bannerettes are deep, but the Aussies have Ash. Might that be enough to pull off the upset?

Up till now, Kathy Rinaldi is two-for-two as U.S. Captain as far as appearances in the final are concerned, winning in '17 and then being the latest runners-up to the Czechs last year. There hasn't been a U.S. presence in three straight FC finals since 1994-96. Step one in turning back the clock takes place on home soil in North Carolina, with a good Williams/Sloane/CoCo-less roster that includes two recent AO achievers in Madison Keys (4th Rd.) and Danielle Collins (SF), last year's sudden star in the final in Sonya Kenin (a first-time singles and doubles title winner in January) and two-time '18 slam doubles finalist (and MX winner) Nicole Melichar. Meanwhile, Australian captain Alicia Molik, as she's done to get AUS this far, will once again try to ride Ash Barty to victory. And it *could* happen. Fresh off her AO QF run, Barty will likely have to play a part in all three points en route to victory, unless the likes of '19 upset-maker Kimberly Birrell (wins over Kasatkina, Mladenovic and Vekic) can pull off *another* vs. either Collins or Kenin (honestly, one can't expect a "W" from Dasha Gavrilova, who's 0-5 since October).

Without the likes of Bethanie Mattek-Sands or the recuperating Vandeweghe in doubles, Melichar would be teamed with a less experienced partner in a deciding doubles contest, likely vs. Barty and AO MX finalist Astra Sharma, no stranger to the atmosphere of team events in the southern U.S. as a star member of the Vanderbilt tennis program in recent years.

PICK: USA def. AUS 3-1
...Barty is 11-2 (6-1/5-1) in her FC career, and could end up being the Overall MVP of the weekend if she adds three more wins. But I'm going to stick with the In Rinaldi We Trust program until proven otherwise. Keys (hopefully 100%) *needs* to win her match-up with Barty. If not, the whole house of cards could come tumbling down. A DD would be a 50/50 proposition for the hosts.




*WORLD GROUP II*
Italy at Switzerland (Biel, SUI - HCI)
ITA: Giorgi,Errani,Trevisan,Paolini,Chiesa (Capt: Tathiana Garbin)
SUI: Bencic,Voegele,Golubic,Bacsinszky,Teichmann (Capt: Heinz Gunthardt)
...not only is Caroline Garcia back this Fed Cup weekend, but so it Camila Giorgi. (Shocked silence.) Yeah, I bet not too many *ever* saw that happening, huh? Ah, but are the hopes of the Italian team back with her? Hey, not so fast.

While the addition of Giorgi to a Team Italia that will also include Sara Errani, back for the first time since June after serving the rest of her noodle suspension, is an intriguing development (and makes this the best ITA squad since the "good old days"), the Swiss are still the decided favorites with Belinda Bencic (7-4/4-2, but 1-3 in her last four FC WS) and Timea Bacsinszky (20-17) likely leading the way.

PICK: SUI def. ITA 3-1
...though this tie getting pushed to the DD isn't *totally* out of the question.


Slovakia at Latvia (Riga, LAT - HCI)
SVK: Cibulkova(injured),Kuzmova,AK.Schmiedlova,Rybarikova,Sramkova (Capt: Matej Liptak)
LAT: Sevastova,Ostapenko,Marcinkevica,Vismane,Spaka (Capt: Adrians Zguns)
...the rise of Latvian tennis finally comes home to roost. Literally. As in the first home tie in the nation's history.

It wasn't easy for the Latvians to get here. A year ago, they overcome surprise singles losses in zone play by Alona Ostapenko and Anastasija Sevastova by winning in the deciding doubles, then came back from 0-1 down vs. a Kasatkina-less Russian squad to make their first WG II appearance (knocking the Hordettes into zone play for the first time since 1997). The Russians had made that date vs. Latvia due to Slovakia's first-ever win over them in last year's 1st Round. That tie proved to be the FC coming out party for Viktoria Kuzmova, who put the team on her back in the wake of Dominika Cibulkova's injury-related absence. The Hordette conquering nations meet here because of SVK's 3-2 loss last spring against Belarus, a tie in which Kuzmova posted wins over *both* Sabalenka and Sasnovich before the Slovaks dropped a deciding doubles match.

This might be the most interesting of all the weekend ties, as the atmosphere in Riga will be exciting, and will provide Ostapenko (15-9/12-4) with the chance to belatedly ignite her '19 campaign in her hometown. With Cibulkova once more playing the unreliable teammate role, apparently being out with a virus this time after a wrist injury kept her sidelined a year ago, Kuzmova will again be called upon to carry the load. With a healthy Cibulkova it'd been hard to see either nation having a decided advantage in the singles, but that may have now changed. Still, assuming the current "lesser" version of Ostapenko can get at least one win, Sevastova will likely play the key role for the hosts. 14-5 in FC play, coming off an AO Round of 16 and 5-1 vs. everyone not named Osaka in '19 (she's 0-2 vs. the world #1, but took her to three sets both times in recent weeks), if she can post two wins (over Kuzmova and, either Schmiedlova or, if *she's* healthy enough to go, Magdalena Rybarikova) the Latvians might avoid a deciding doubles roll of the dice.

PICK: LAT def. SVK 3-1
...with a healthy Cibulkova I'd have taken things to the deciding doubles, but not now. However, if Kuzmova can reach down and play a game of Whack-a-Latvian similar to the Whack-a-Belarusian one she starred in last April, the Slovak could be an "MVP" in an overall losing team effort *again.*



Spain at Japan (Kita-kyushu, JPN - HCI)
JPN: Doi,Hibino,Nara,Kato,Ninomiya (Capt: Toshihisa Tsuchihashi)
ESP: Sorribes-Tormo,Bolsova Zadoinov,Garcia-Perez,Soler-Espinosa,Martinez-Sanchez (Capt: Anabel Medina-Garrigues)
...in recent outings, Japan has perfected the "team" concent of Fed Cup play, engaging every player on the roster *and* getting live wins from them, as well. Because of this, even while playing without AO champ Naomi Osaka, the Japanese would seem to have a decided advantage on the road against a Spanish team with AMG installed as captain, but without either Garbine Muguruza or Carla Suarez-Navarro on the bench.

The Spanish roster, aside from 36-year old Maria Jose Martinez-Sanchez (who would probably only play doubles), consists of two players (Bolsova-Zadoinov & GGP) with zero FC singles wins, one (Sorribes-Tormo) with one and another with four (Soler-Espinosa) who has nevertheless lost twice as much (4-8) as she's won. The not-stunning-but-solid Japanese team includes players with good FC histories -- 8-7 Doi, 10-7 Nara, 4-4 Hibino -- and a doubles duo (Kato/Ninomiya) that proved to be one of the most clutch around, going 5-0 together in zone and WG II play in '18 (including a DD win over GBR's Konta/Watson to get to this stage for the first time since 2014). It would seem an open and shut case.

PICK: JPN def. ESP 3-1
...there's no "I" in team, but you don't necessarily need "Naomi" to spell it (it just make things a little easier).


Canada at Netherlands ('s-Hertogenbosch, NED - RCI)
CAN: Andreescu,Marino,Abanda,Dabrowski (Capt: Heidi El Tabakh)
NED: Rus,Hogenkamp,Schoofs,Schuurs (Capt: Paul Haarhuis)
...it seems like 2019 has mostly consisted of a series of #BiancaRising moments surrounded by good results from Naomi Osaka and Czechs. This weekend may add another chapter to Andreescu's so-far-remarkable start to the season.

This is the only of the eight weekend ties to be contested on clay, and that could very well give the Bertens-less Dutch team a fighting chance. But the fact remains that ever since the stunning 1st Round upset of a loaded Russian team in 2016, the Netherlands has dropped four of five ties. Meanwhile, the young Canadian team has won six of seven zone/WGII ties in recent years, often with Bianca Andreescu playing a big part even while battling injury. The teenager seems to have found a way to fight through lingering ailments in '19, so far reaching a tour final, qualifying for the AO and recording her first slam MD win and then winning a WTA 125 crown while starting the season on an eye-opening 16-2 tear. If she's got a little more in her, she'll likely lead the Canadians into the WG Playoffs come the spring (maybe with Genie Bouchard lending a gutsy helping hand come April, as she did in last spring's 3-2 win over Ukraine while the rest of the team was a collection of the walking wounded -- with Andreescu playing hurt, Franckie Abanda out after falling and hitting her head before the start of play and Gaby Dabrowski forced into action in singles).

But Rus and Hogenkamp are capable of posting singles wins, so some non-Andreescu singles help on the Canadian side would be greatly appreaciated by first-time captain Heidi El Tabakh. Abanda (5-4) has been an underrated but key part of Canada's recent FC success, while Rebecca Marino will be making her first FC appearance since 2011. With Demi Schuurs waiting in the wings to join forces with a Dutch teammate (a year after she and Lesley Kerkhove defeated the Williams Sisters in a dead rubber match), the Canadians would be wise to find a way to wrap things up before it gets to that.
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It’s that time again ??????

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PICK: CAN def. NED 3-0
...and the eighteen year old shall lead them. Hitch up the trailer.




Zone play has been going on at various sites the last few days, so I can't really preview anything there. But I can still post my initial picks!

*ZONE PLAY*
Europe/Africa I (Bath, GBR & Zielova Gora, POL- HCI)
GBR,SLO,GRE,HUN; CRO,GEO,SRB,TURL...DEN,POL,RUS; BUL,EST,SWE,UKR
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS (2 advance): Great Britain and Russia




Asia/Oceania I (Astana, KAZ - HCI)
IND,KAZ,THA...CHN,INA,KOR,POC
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICK (1 advances): Kazakhstan



Americas I (Medellin, COL - RCO)
COL,ECU,MEX,PAR...ARG,BRA,CHI,PUR
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICK (1 advances): Mexico



Europe/Africa II (Esch-sur-Aizette, LUX - HCI)
AUT,BIH,TUN...ISR,LUX,POR,RSA
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICK (1 advances): Luxembourg


Of course, I'll have a full wrap-up of the entire Fed Cup event in the regular weekly post following all the weekend action, as well as the full "Fed Cup Captain Threat Level Chart."



All for now.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 5:25 PM 

3 Comments:

Blogger colt13 said...

Ukraine is becoming Switzerland, in that they have good rosters but the results aren't there.

Fed Cup 2019

CZE/ROM
MIP(Most Important Person)-Buzarnescu
This is the tie with the marquee matchup of former #1's in Pliskova vs Halep. Halep leads 6-2, but Pliskova won the last matchup. Czech's are vulnerable, but Buzarnescu is the key. As Pliskova and Halep could be expected to win at least one match, if not 2, ice cold Buzarnescu and Siniakova will probably play each other. Dr.Buz is in better for, so Romania for the win.

FRA/BEL
MIP-Garcia
Initially, the thought was that Garcia would be important because she hasn't played well, then factor in Mladenovic's Fed Cup success with the lack of it for Cornet, and assume she will get two matches. Well, Mladenovic isn't even listed for doubles, and you can't expect Cornet to win twice. So Garcia will have to do the heavy lifting. Taking big match players Van Uytvanck and Mertens for the win

GER/BLR
MIP-Sabalenka
The Franchise! Sabalenka is the one Top 10 player here, and with Sasnovich/Azarenka possibly sharing a spot, the only player guaranteed two singles matches. As long as she does what is expected, and on the road 6-4, 6-4 is good, Belarus can steamroll into the SF.

AUS/USA
MIP-Gavrilova
This is the one tie that doesn't have matchups listed yet. You might think that Keys is more important, but she can go all out. As one of 4 Top 20 women to skip both Doha and Dubai-Serena, Sloane, and injured Wang are the others, Keys should be able to beat Barty. Gavrilova is the wildcard, because even though she isn't in good form, she may get two matches by default. Would Molik really go to Hon, Birrell, or Sharma? Would be better, but unlikely. USA to win.

SUI/ITA
MIP-Giorgi
The best player in the tie, and placed as the #1. Errani will start, but is a big unknown, so Giorgi will have to win twice. Golubic gets the #2 slot, as Bacsinszky is now just a doubles specialist in Fed Cup. ITA in a squeaker.

SVK/LAT
MIP-Ostapenko
Ostapenko's draw went from a dream to a nightmare in a couple of days. We know how the only people Ostapenko has beaten have been on losing streaks. Slovakia had two in Rybarikova and Cibulkova, but now neither will play, leaving Ostapenko to play Kuzmova on Day 1. Giving Latvia the home field boost should get them over the hump, but this will be closer that it was just a couple of days ago. Red flag for latvia is if Marcinkevica or Vismane play before doubles.

ESP/JAP
MIP- Garcia Perez
The best tie of the weekend. Because of matchups. You see, Japan is clearly better on paper, and if this was a simulation, Japan would sweep. But Garcia Perez, who is Spain's #2, poses a matchup problem which infects the whole tie. The big serving 6-2 Garcia will play the 5-1 Doi. Japan goes 5-1, 5-1, 5-2, 5-4. Spain's B Team goes 6-2, 5-9, 5-9, 5-8, 5-7. With a bunch of Japanese players that struggle against the likes of Kr.Pliskova, their skill might be neutralized. Spain in an upset.

CAN/NED
MIP-Andreescu
Doubles specialists Schuurs and Dabrowski cancel each other out. Schoofs isn't expected to see singles action. So that leaves Andreescu as the one player(if healthy) to play two matches. And she is going to have to face her demons. She opens vs Hogenkamp, who beat her on clay last year-Andreescu did win on hard. Then will face the lefty in Rus, of which she hasn't played many. Only recent ones were loss to Danilovic, and win vs fellow Canadian Fernandez. Canada in a tight one.

Fri Feb 08, 08:36:00 AM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

And the USA/AUS matchups are in. Kenin vs Barty, and Keys vs Birrell.

A bunch of slumping players got benched. One, Serbia's Danilovic, may have jump started her season.

Fri Feb 08, 12:32:00 PM EST  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

Ah, swinging for the fences with ROU, I see. ;)

I was going to say I *could* see Molik going with Birrell, since she's knocked off so many big names in the early weeks of the season. But I didn'tt know if her "Captain's gut" was developed as such yet, though. Looks like it has.

Fri Feb 08, 05:41:00 PM EST  

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