Roland Garros Predictions: A Gathering of Souls
For one more time in the 2010's, souls will gather in Paris over the next two weeks to determine the best clay court tennis player in the world.
The Roland Garros line of champions from 2010-18 have produced all sorts of historical moments, from veterans (Francesca Schiavone & Li Na) winning their maiden titles early on, to the middle years being dominated by players (Serena Williams & Maria Sharapova) who have served as the "voice" of their generation winning multiple titles to further burnish their career resumes, to the most recent three years seeing the rise of a "new ruling class" (first-timers Garbine Muguruza & Simona Halep) and the initial major uprising (Alona Ostapenko) of an impatient generation.
Who will be the final woman to raise aloft the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen this decade? Will she be a familiar face in the winner's circle, or yet another (the sixth maiden slam champ in ten years of play at RG) who'll come of age (be it early in a career or late) on the big stage in Paris?
Répondez s'il vous plaît.
*RECENT WOMEN'S SLAM WINNERS*
2016 AO: Angelique Kerber, GER
2016 RG: Garbine Muguruza, ESP
2016 WI: Serena Williams, USA
2016 US: Angelique Kerber, GER
2017 AO: Serena Williams, USA
2017 RG: Alona Ostapenko, LAT
2017 WI: Garbine Muguruza, ESP
2017 US: Sloane Stephens, USA
2018 AO: Caroline Wozniacki, DEN
2018 RG: Simona Halep, ROU
2018 WI: Angelique Kerber, GER
2018 US: Naomi Osaka, JPN
2019 AO: Naomi Osaka, JPN
*ACTIVE SINGLES PLAYERS - FIRST SLAM FINAL*
1997 U.S. Open - Venus Williams
1999 U.S. Open - Serena Williams (W)
2004 Wimbledon - Maria Sharapova (W)
2004 U.S. Open - Svetlana Kuznetsova (W)
2009 U.S. Open - Caroline Wozniacki
2010 Roland Garros - Samantha Stosur
2010 Wimbledon - Vera Zvonareva
2011 Wimbledon - Petra Kvitova (W)
2012 Australian Open - Victoria Azarenka (W)
2012 Roland Garros - Sara Errani
2013 Wimbledon - Sabine Lisicki
2014 Australian Open - Dominika Cibulkova
2014 Roland Garros - Simona Halep
2014 Wimbledon - Genie Bouchard
2015 Wimbledon - Garbine Muguruza
2016 Australian Open - Angelique Kerber (W)
2016 U.S. Open - Karolina Pliskova
2017 Roland Garros - Alona Ostapenko (W)
2017 U.S. Open - Sloane Stephens (W)
2017 U.S. Open - Madison Keys
2018 U.S. Open - Naomi Osaka (W)
--
ALSO...
2008 U.S. Open - Jelena Jankovic
2015 Roland Garros - Lucie Safarova
*ROLAND GARROS #1 SEEDS*
2010 Serena Williams (QF)
2011 Caroline Wozniacki (3rd Rd.)
2012 Victoria Azarenka (4th Rd.)
2013 Serena Williams (W)
2014 Serena Williams (2nd Rd.)
2015 Serena Williams (W)
2016 Serena Williams (RU)
2017 Angelique Kerber (1st Rd.)
2018 Simona Halep (W)
2019 Naomi Osaka
*ROLAND GARROS FINALS - active*
4...Serena Williams (3-1)
3...Maria Sharapova (2-1)
3...Simona Halep (1-2)
2...Svetlana Kuznetsova (1-1)
1...Garbine Muguruza (1-0)
1...Alona Ostapenko (1-0)
1...Sara Errani (0-1)
1...Sloane Stephens (0-1)
1...Samantha Stosur (0-1)
1...Venus Williams (0-1)
-
ALSO: Lucie Safarova (0-1)
*RECENT RG SEMIFINALISTS*
2010 Schiavone (W)/Stosur (RU), Dementieva/Jankovic
2011 Li (W)/Schiavone (RU), Bartoli/Sharapova
2012 Sharapova (W)/Errani (RU), Kvitova/Stosur
2013 S.Williams (W)/Sharapova (RU), Azarenka/Errani
2014 Sharapova (W)/Halep (RU), Bouchard/Petkovic
2015 S.Williams (W)/Safarova (RU), Bacsinszky/Ivanovic
2016 Muguruza (W)/S.Williams (RU), Bertens/Stosur
2017 Ostapenko (W)/Halep (RU), Ka.Pliskova/Bacsinszky
2018 Halep (W)/Stephens (RU), Muguruza/Keys
*LOW-SEEDED RG SEMIFINALISTS - since 2008*
un....Kiki Bertens, 2016
un....Alona Ostapenko, 2017 (W)
#30...Samantha Stosur, 2009 (RU)
#30...Timea Bacsinszky, 2017
#28...Andrea Petkovic, 2014
#23...Timea Bacsinszky, 2015
#21...Samantha Stosur, 2016
#21...Sara Errani, 2012 (RU)
#20...Dominika Cibulkova, 2009
#18...Genie Bouchard, 2014
#17...Francesca Schiavone, 2010 (W)
#13...Madison Keys, 2018
#13...Lucie Safarova, 2015 (RU)
#13...Dinara Safina, 2008
*ROLAND GARROS GIRLS FINALS - since 2008*
2008 Simona Halep/ROU d. Elena Bogdan/ROU
2009 Kristina Mladenovic/FRA d. Dasha Gavrilova/RUS
2010 Elina Svitolina/UKR d. Ons Jabeur/TUN
2011 Ons Jabeur/TUN d. Monica Puig/PUR
2012 Annika Beck/GER d. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova/SVK
2013 Belinda Bencic/SUI d. Antonia Lottner/GER
2014 Dasha Kasatkina/RUS d. Ivana Jorovic/SRB
2015 Paula Badosa/ESP d. Anna Kalinskaya/RUS
2016 Rebeka Masarova/SUI d. Amanda Anisimova/USA
2017 Whitney Osuigwe/USA d. Claire Liu/USA
2018 Coco Gauff/USA d. Caty McNally/USA
*BEST RG GIRLS/WOMEN'S RESULTS*
[won Girls & Women's titles]
Sue Barker (1974 Jr. Champion; 1976 Women's Champion)
Jennifer Capriati (1989 Jr. Champion; 2001 Women's Champion)
Simona Halep (2008 Jr. Champion; 2018 Women's Champion)
Justine Henin (1997 Jr. Champion; 2003, '05-'07 Women's Champion)
Mima Jausovec (1973 Jr. Champion; 1977 Women's Champion)
Hana Mandlikova (1978 Jr. Champion; 1981 Women's Champion)
[others]
Renata Tomanova (1972 Jr. Champion; 1976 Women's RU)
Martina Hingis (1993-94 Jr. Champion; 1997/99 Women's RU)
Natasha Zvereva (1998 Jr. Champion; 1988 Women's RU)
Svetlana Kuznetsova (2001 Jr. RU; 2009 Women's Champion)
*FIRST-TIME SLAM CHAMPS AT ROLAND GARROS*
[Open Era]
1971 Evonne Goolagong, AUS
1974 Chris Evert, USA
1976 Sue Barker, GBR
1977 Mima Jausovec, SLO
1978 Virginia Ruzici, ROU
1987 Steffi Graf, GER
1989 Arantxa Sanchez, ESP
1990 Monica Seles, YUG
1997 Iva Majoli, CRO
2003 Justine Henin, BEL
2004 Anastasia Myskina, RUS
2008 Ana Ivanovic, SRB
2010 Francesca Schiavone, ITA
2011 Li Na, CHN
2016 Garbine Muguruza, ESP
2017 Alona Ostapenko, LAT
2018 Simona Halep, ROU
--
NOTE: Ann Haydon-Jones won first career slam at '61 Roland Garros, before Open era began in '68
*AO/RG TITLES IN SEASON - OPEN ERA*
1969 Margaret Court, AUS
1970 Margaret Court, AUS
1973 Margaret Court, AUS
1988 Steffi Graf, FRG
1991 Monica Seles, YUG
1992 Monica Seles, YUG
2001 Jennifer Capriati, USA
2015 Serena Williams, USA
*RG WHEELCHAIR CHAMPIONS*
2007 Esther Vergeer, NED
2008 Esther Vergeer, NED
2009 Esther Vergeer, NED
2010 Esther Vergeer, NED
2011 Esther Vergeer, NED
2012 Esther Vergeer, NED
2013 Sabine Ellerbrock, GER
2014 Yui Kamiji, JPN
2015 Jiske Griffioen, NED
2016 Marjolein Buis, NED
2017 Yui Kamiji, JPN
2018 Yui Kamiji, JPN
[doubles]
2007 Maaike Smit/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2008 Jiske Griffioen/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2009 Korie Homan/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2010 Daniela Di Toro/Aniek van Koot, AUS/NED
2011 Esther Vergeer/Sharon Walraven, NED/NED
2012 Marjolein Buis/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2013 Jiske Griffioen/Aniek van Koot, NED/NED
2014 Yui Kamiji/Jordanne Whiley, JPN/GBR
2015 Jiske Griffioen/Aniek van Koot, NED/NED
2016 Yui Kamiji/Jordanne Whiley, JPN/GBR
2017 Marjolein Buis/Yui Kamiji, NED/JPN
2018 Diede de Groot/Aniek Van Koot, NED/NED
*RECENT WC SLAM SINGLES FINALS*
2017 AO - #2 Yui Kamiji/JPN def. #1 Jiske Griffioen/NED
2017 RG - #2 Yui Kamiji/JPN def. Sabine Ellerbrock/GER
2017 WI - Diede de Groot/NED def. Sabine Ellerbrock/GER
2017 US - #1 Yui Kamiji/JPN def. #2 Diede de Groot/NED
2018 AO - #2 Diede de Groot/NED def. #1 Yui Kamiji/JPN
2018 RG - #1 Yui Kamiji/JPN def. #2 Diede de Groot/NED
2018 WI - #1 Diede de Groot/NED def. Aniek van Koot/NED
2018 US - #1 Diede de Groot/NED def. #2 Yui Kamiji/JPN
2019 AO - #1 Diede de Groot/NED def. #2 Yui Kamiji/JPN
*FIRST-TIME SLAM SEMIFINALISTS SINCE 2013*
=2013=
AO: Sloane Stephens/USA
RG: -
WI: Kirsten Flipkens/BEL
US: Flavia Pennetta/ITA
=2014=
AO: Genie Bouchard/CAN
RG: Simona Halep/ROU (RU), Andrea Petkovic/GER
WI: Lucie Safarova/CZE
US: Ekatarina Makarova/RUS, Peng Shuai/CHN
=2015=
AO: Madison Keys/USA
RG: Timea Bacsinszky/SUI
WI: Garbine Muguruza/ESP (RU)
US: Roberta Vinci/ITA (RU)
=2016=
AO: Johanna Konta/GBR
RG: Kiki Bertens/NED
WI: Elena Vesnina/RUS
US: Karolina Pliskova/CZE (RU)
=2017=
AO: CoCo Vandeweghe/USA
RG: Alona Ostapenko/LAT (W)
WI: Magdalena Rybarikova/SVK
US: -
=2018=
AO: Elise Mertens/BEL
RG: -
WI: Julia Goerges/GER
US: Naomi Osaka/JPN (W), Anastasija Sevastova/LAT
=2019=
AO: Danielle Collins/USA
*CAREER SLAM #1 SEEDS - active*
20...Serena Williams
6...Caroline Wozniacki
5...Simona Halep
4...Maria Sharapova
3...Victoria Azarenka
3...Angelique Kerber
1...NAOMI OSAKA
1...Karolina Pliskova
1...Venus Williams
-
ALSO: 1-Jelena Jankovic
*RECENT SLAM JUNIOR CHAMPS*
[2017]
AO: Marta Kostyuk, UKR
RG: Whitney Osuigwe, USA
WI: Claire Liu, USA
US: Amanda Anisimova, USA
[2018]
AO: Liang En-shuo, TPE
RG: Coco Gauff, USA
WI: Iga Swiatek, POL
US: Wang Xiyu, CHN
[2019]
AO: Clara Tauson, DEN
*SLAM TITLES AFTER AGE 30*
10..Serena Williams, USA (age 30-35)*
3...Martina Navratilova, USA (age 30-33)
3...Margaret Court, AUS (age 30-31)
2...Billie Jean King, USA (age 30 & 31)
2...Chris Evert, USA (age 30 & 31)
1...Flavia Pennetta, ITA (age 33)
1...Virginia Wade. GBR (age 31)
1...Ann Haydon Jones, GBR (age 30)
1...Angelique Kerber, GER (age 30)*
--
*-active
*OLDEST WOMEN'S SINGLES SLAM CHAMPIONS - OPEN ERA*
Serena Williams (35y/125) - 2017 Australian
Serena Williams (34/283) - 2016 Wimbledon
Serena Williams (33/285) - 2015 Wimbledon
Martina Navratilova (33/263) - 1990 Wimbledon
Serena Williams (33/254) - 2015 Roland Garros
Flavia Pennetta (33/201) - 2015 U.S. Open
Serena Williams (33/127) - 2015 Australian
*OLDEST WOMEN'S SINGLES SLAM FINALISTS*
Martina Navratilova (37y,258d) — lost '94 WI to C.Martinez
Venus Williams (37/28) - lost '17 WI to Muguruza
Serena Williams (36/347) - lost '18 US to Osaka
Serena Williams (36/291) - lost '18 WI to Kerber
Venus Williams (36/226) — '17 AO, lost to S.Williams
Serena Williams (35/125) — '17 AO, def. V.Williams
Martina Navratilova (34/325) — '91 US, lost to Seles
Serena Williams (34/287) — '16 WI, def. Kerber
Serena Williams (34/252) — '16 RG, lost to Muguruza
Serena Williams (34/127) — '16 AO, lost to Kerber
*OLDEST FIRST-TIME SLAM CHAMPS*
33y,199d - Flavia Pennetta, 2015 U.S. Open
29y,346d - Francesca Schiavone, 2010 Roland Garros
29y,275d - Jana Novotna, 1998 Wimbledon
29y,154d - Kerry Melville-Reid, 1977 Australian Open
29y,98d - Li Na, 2011 Roland Garros
28y,277d - Marion Bartoli, 2013 Wimbledon
28y,12d - Angelique Kerber, 2016 Australian Open
27y,200d - Caroline Wozniacki, 2018 Australian Open
26y,255d - Simona Halep, 2018 Roland Garros
26y,207d - Amelie Mauresmo, 2006 Australian Open
26y,165d - Samantha Stosur, 2011 U.S. Open
*MOST SLAMS BEFORE FIRST TITLE*
49 - Flavia Pennetta (2015 U.S. Open)
47 - Marion Bartoli (2013 Wimbledon)
45 - Jana Novotna (1998 Wimbledon)
43 - Caroline Wozniacki (2018 Australian Open)
39 - Francesca Schiavone (2010 Roland Garros)
34 - Samantha Stosur (2011 U.S. Open)
33 - Angelique Kerber (2016 Australian Open)
32 - Simona Halep (2018 Roland Garros)
32 - Amelie Mauresmo (2006 Australian Open)
*TEEN SLAM CHAMPS - since 1997*
1997 Martina Hingis, 16 (AO)*
1997 Iva Majoli, 19 (RG)*
1997 Martina Hingis, 16 (WI)
1997 Martina Hingis, 16 (US)
1998 Martina Hingis, 17 (AO)
1999 Martina Hingis, 18 (AO)
1999 Serena Williams, 17 (US)*
2004 Maria Sharapova, 17 (WI)*
2004 Svetlana Kuznetsova, 19 (US)*
2006 Maria Sharapova, 19 (US)
--
* - first-time slam winner
*WON TITLE AT FIRST SLAM SEEDED #1*
[since end of Evert/Navratilova era]
1991 Monica Seles (Roland Garros)
2002 Jennifer Capriati (Australian Open)
2002 Serena Williams (U.S. Open)
2004 Justine Henin-Hardenne (Australian Open)
-
NOTE: Osaka #1 seed for first time at 2019 RG
*BIGGEST AGE DIFFERENCE IN SLAM FINAL*
17y,45d - Seles (17) d. Navratilova (34) = '91 U.S.
16y,20d - Osaka (20) d. S.Williams (36) = '18 U.S.
15y,180d - Martinez (22) d. Navratilova (37) = '94 WI
14y,175d - Graf (18) d. Evert (33) = '88 AO
13y,113d - Muguruza (23) d. V.Williams (37) = '17 WI
*LOW RANKED IN SLAM FINAL - Open era*
NR - Evonne Goolagong, 1977 Australian (W)
NR - Kim Clijsters, 2009 US Open (W)
NR - Justine Henin, 2010 Australian
#181 - Serena Williams, 2018 Wimbledon
#111 - Chris O'Neil, 1978 Australian (W)
#83 - Sloane Stephens, 2017 US Open (W)
#81 - Serena Williams, 2007 Australian (W)
#78 - Betsy Nagelson, 1978 Australian
#68 - Barbara Jordan, 1979 Australian (W)
#66 - Venus Williams. 1997 US Open
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#10 S.Williams d. #8 Barty - is Serena healthy enough for a second week run, and is "second choice" in her section -- Andreescu -- prepared for one big clay result after not playing on the dirt all spring? Meanwhile, Barty could be the beneficiary of the questions and succeed on her least favorite surface.
#3 Halep d. Swiatek - a first-time run for Iga, but if Kasatkina (3rd Rd., if she makes it that far) can find her form she could pull her hugely disappointing season out of its ugly tailspin
#6 Kvitova d. #17 Kontaveit - Petra's the clear favorite in a section what could see Anisimova get a second '19 slam shot at Sabalenka in the 2nd Rd.
#7 Stephens d. #19 Muguruza - unless Svitolina (1st Rd. vs. Venus, 3rd vs. Mugu) finally finds her place in the season, which she so far has not
#4 Bertens d. #15 Bencic - can Kiki ride the wave of expectation? She may have to win tough early match-ups with Kuzmova (2nd Rd.) and Konta (3rd Rd.) just to get this far.
Vondrousova d. Pavlyuchenkova - MV might have to defeat her first non-Simona Top 10 player (Kerber 2nd Rd.) to get here. Pavlyuchenkova over Mertens (3rd Rd.) because, well, who can ever really predict the Russian, so why not?
#2 Ka.Pliskova d. Kudermetova - is in an oddly interesting section with the injured Wozniacki (4th Rd.), the unpredictable Kuznetsova (2nd Rd.), spring breakout Petra Martic and a comeback minded Mladenovic (either in the 3rd Rd.)
#3 Halep d. #6 Kvitova - Petra hasn't been to the QF in Paris since 2012
#4 Bertens d. #7 Stephens - but could easily envision Sloane hitting stride and whipping through this match-up and then taking the title
#2 Ka.Pliskova d. Vondrousova - is Vondrouosova ready? Maybe if she wasn't facing another Czech, so an early Pliskova stumble vs. quite a few upset-minded opponents could swing a door wide open.
#4 Bertens d. #2 Ka.Pliskova - Kiki has a history of knocking off multiple Top 10ers in an event, and Pliskova is one of the four she's defeated in majors (though it was on SW19's grass last year). Her last Top 10 win in Paris was in 2016.
And, of course, the "Decade's Best" series for 2010-19 will continue during Roland Garros, with a look back at each edition of the tournament from this decade appearing in the "And finally..." section of Backspin's daily updates over the course of the next two weeks. A stand-alone 2010 recap has already been posted just to kick things off. After the final '19 champ has been crowned, the list of the Top 10 RG players of the decade will be unveiled, as well as the latest update of the Players of the Decade nomination list.
posted by Todd.Spiker @ 10:54 PM
2 Comments:
Shelby Rogers should think about full time doubles, and part time singles. her game would translate well.
Did not go unnoticed that Siegemund, who got hurt in Nurnberg 2 years ago, played Strasbourg instead.
10 On the Up Side-The no roof edition.
1.Ka.Pliskova- 4 finals on clay in her career, and has won titles on clay the last 2 years. Only Bertens and Kvitova can say that. On the side of the draw away from Halep, so has a chance to get her bearings for what could be her first slam. And the fact that she is not #1 isn't a big deal, as the #1 seed has only won 3 of the last 11 years.
2.Halep- Has a good draw, and could be the first woman to reach the final 3 consecutive years since Sharapova did form 2012-2014. Trying to be the first since Henin to repeat.
3.Sakkari- Could put Keys here, as the winner of that probable match may have the inside track at a semifinal. Projects better at Wimbledon, but a seed here makes things better, and is the first woman from Greece seeded here since Daniilidou in 2003.
4.Stephens- may have gotten the best draw. Anything less than QF with this draw would be disappointing. Plus, she does well at every other slam. Last 7 in order-1st-W-1st-F-1st-QF-4th. So QF or better fits the profile.
5.Putintseva- 2 time QF still alive to win her first title. Fit the projection, but late, so although 31st in ranking, will be unseeded. Darkhorse SF pick.
6.Vondrousova- Another possible darkhorse. Having an underrated season, as she doesn't have a title, but multiple runner up finishes.
7.Mertens- Not on this list because of current form, but won Doha, and 4 of the last 10 years at least one of the finalists has reached the French Open final. That does not include Ostapenko, who reached the Doha final the year before her French Open win.
8.Muchova- I am not just picking Czech players, though they, along with Strycova in doubles, are expected to do well. Has seeds Kontaveit and Sabalenka early, but in current form could upset one or both.
9.Konta- 0-4 lifetime, but looks to pick up her first md win. Oddly enough, she was seeded 3 of those years, and being seeded again this year makes this the longest streak for a Brit at the French since Wade was from 1969-1974. The year she wasn't she lost a first set tiebreak to Allertova 19-17. Bertens is probably too big of a task, but reaching that match would be a good thing.
10.Kasatkina- More here because of her past, and her draw. 4th rd is reachable, and has a style that works well here. Plus low enough ranked that she may get pushed to the new Simonne Mathieu Court, which means no history, and a clean slate. Expect upsets on that court.
10 On the Down Side.
1.Begu- Oof. On a 2-8 run, and has dropped out of the Top 100. The only noteable thing she did recently was lose to Errani, giving her the only Top 100 win she has had in the last year.
2.Maria- A threat to pull off an upset.....on grass. On clay, she hasn't has a Top 100 win on clay in a WTA event in 2 years. Has a current 5 match losing streak.
3.Bertens- She is one of the favorites. But hopefully the New Bertens can improve on the old one. First 14 slams-4th rd was her best. last 13 slams- 1 SF, 1 QF, 4 3rd rd, but she still has underperformed. On the Pliskova side of the draw, there is an opportunity to change her fate. If not, Putintseva might take her out.
4.Sabalenka- Only 1-3 on clay this year before this week, she might walk away with another title. But here because she has turned into the old Svitolina, feasting on internationals, then coming up small in a slam. Speaking of Svitolina...
5.Svitolina- Sabalenka can turn into Svitolina because Svitolina isn't herself. Riding a 4 match losing streak, she gets a minor break in getting the also compromised Venus in one of the 4 good matches because of question marks. The other 3? Ostapenko/Azarenka-Ostapenko better on clay, but Azarenka in better form, so Azarenka. Then Goerges/Kanepi-Goerges the better player, but Kanepi is probably more match tough, as she has played 14 matches this season. The last is Vekic/Boulter. Vekic a big favorite if healthy, but both are banged up. None of those 8 are healthy enough to make the second week.
6.Andreescu- All this talk of a Serena-Bibi matchup obscures the fact that they both have huge questions. As a reminder, Andreescu has no WTA level wins on clay in her career. And without a roof to protect Serena, her knee and foot problems are magnified. Andreescu may win a round, but the idea is to leave healthy.
7.Kvitova- Got a bad draw, and rainy conditions may affect her breathing. 7 yeas since her last QF here, she is one i'm lowering my expectations on.
8.Wang Q.- Won a couple of matches last year, so points to defend. Not playing well, and opens against another Chinese player, so might be too hyped.
9.Osaka- Doesn't have a good draw, but deserves mention because she is the only player than could win a grand slam. Also halfway to the Osaka Slam. Improving to the point that she should win here one year, but like Alonso at Indy, not this year.
10.Switzerland- As of this writing, and i am surprised Vekic is still in, 6 women in the Top 100 are not in the main draw. late pullout Giorgi, Sharapova, and Makarova. The other 3? Swiss women Teichmann, Bacsinszky, and Vogele, who all lost in French Open qualies. Especially stings for Timea, as she could have pulled an upset, leaving Babos as the one Timea to make the field.
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