2020 WTA Preview: Prediction Blowout
(And a few "old" ones, too, no doubt.)
The time has arrived when all the coaching changes, offseason training regimens, and attempts to adjust to and recalibrate as a result of what happened *last* season will be put to the ultimate test. All over again.
Before play in the new season got underway in recent days, the personal slate for every player on tour had officially been wiped clean. With each match result that has come in, the packaging has started to be removed from a sparkly-new WTA campaign. For a brief moment -- if you blinked you likely missed it! -- everyone was "equal" and all things the hearts desired were possible once more. *Anyone* with a racket in their hand could immediately have "The Beat," or dream that it was just one or two winners down the line from swiftly becoming their new reality.
Of course, for some, such dreams have already suffered their initial dents. Soon enough, the knock-down, drag-out competition that is the "crazy women's tennis tour," *still* the most interesting tour in the world, will either bolster any remaining optimistic notions, or claim still more unwitting victims. As for which it will be, and for whom, only the Tennis Gods know for sure.
At this time a season ago, Bianca Andreescu was but a talented, though injury-prone teenager who was the #5-seed in Auckland qualifying in Week 1. She proceeded to have a "career week" which included wins over three seeds -- the #1 and #3 in the event, two past slam champions and three former world #1's -- en route to her first career tour singles final appearance. Hmmm, whatever happened to her after *that*, I wonder? Oh, yeah. She ended 2019 once again the "#5 player"... as in, the fifth-ranked player *in the world.*
Who might be *this* year's Andreescu? Hmmm...
Okay, that's a prediction you'll likely see *all over* the place. Okay, but how about...?
Remember this name - Elena Rybakina ?? ?? ?? #shenzhenopen #wta pic.twitter.com/T1Odty5Nat
— Shenzhen Open (@ShenzhenOpenWTA) January 6, 2020
(Hey, she says Justine Henin is one of her idols, so she'd fit right in around here.)
Or maybe if you're feeling a bit more adventurous (hint: she's the one on the left)...
Hmmm, all aboard the Gracheva Train while the tickets are still cheap?
Anyway...
Before we see the first WTA champions crowned in 2020 in a few days, it seems that it's time to stake out a few positions regarding whatever *else*
First up, gauging the position on the temperature spectrum of 2020's Top 10 contenders, with the "hottest" the most likely to end the season there.
=WARM=
=COMFORTABLE=
=A BIT COOLER=
=???=
=WILD CARD=
=Other Contenders=
Naomi Osaka, JPN (2019 #3): even with a pair of slams, we've not yet seen "Optimum Osaka" over the course of a full season. With new coach Wim Fissette having a history of directing players to their best performances, might it translate to (at least) another major win *and* a season-ending #1 ranking in 2020?
Simona Halep, ROU (2019 #4): her multi-season ranking consistency says another Top 10 (or 5) season should be in the works, but the full-time return of Darren Cahill combined with an even more relaxed Halep (after her Wimbledon win) could produce something big again (i.e. slam #3 or Olympic Gold)
Karolina Pliskova, CZE (2019 #2): the Czech seemed to finish off maybe her most "complete" (though still slam-free) season ever in '19, yet still scuttled her coaching staff. The only active former #1 without a major title, will Pliskova find the right combination to change that?
Elina Svitolina, UKR (2019 #6): she's won't likely go title-free again, but whether she can win titles *and* build upon her two '19 slam semis will determine whether '20 is a step forward, or a step back
Petra Kvitova, CZE (2019 #7): often awesome in spurts, being unable to sustain such brilliance all season long is why Petra's career is still missing even a brief stint at #1. Her first slam win since '14 might take care of that.
When the 2020 season calls.. pic.twitter.com/R3FJJ5a3go
— Jimmie48 Photography (@JJlovesTennis) December 29, 2019
Serena Williams, USA (2019 #10): rankings are irrelevant to Serena, aren't they? *The* (only real) goal is to get (at least) slam #24. But with the slam-worthy crowd only growing larger, if it doesn't come in '20 will it ever come *at all* for Williams?
Dayana Yastremska, UKR (2019 #22): with Sascha Bajin now in her corner, she could be ready for her close-up. If so, Ukraine could finally get that first slam champ... but she might not be named Elina.
Angelique Kerber, GER (2019 #20): the German's every-other-year swing should forecast a surge back *up* the rankings, but at 32 (this January) she'll likely be the most veteran player not named Serena in the slam title hunt.
Sonia Kenin, USA (2019 #14): already on a steep upward trajectory, Kenin still hasn't won a big title (3 Internationals) or had her true slam breakthrough (QF+). That'll soon change.
Bianca Andreescu, CAN (2019 #5): all things being fine, she'll still be in the Top 10 a year from now and win a few more (different) big titles. Unlike in '19, though, she's not starting off '20 at 100% health (thanks to her '19 WTAF knee injury).
Ash Barty, AUS (2019 #1): Ash won't lose her head, but backing up such a monster season as hers in 2019 is going to be a tough act for the Aussie to successfully follow
Aryna Sabalenka, BLR (2019 #11): she's been knocking on the door of something *big* for two seasons now. Does she finally break through it in '20, or slip back down the lane?
Karolina Muchova, CZE (2019 #21): the athletic Czech looked to only be scratching the surface of her potential last season
Elena Rybakina, KAZ (2019 #37): in stealthy fashion, the Russian-turned-Kazakh crept up into the Top 40 last season. It's time to for her raise a noisier ruckus.
Amanda Anisimova, USA (2019 #24): before the rise of Gauff in London, Anisimova (a semifinalist at Roland Garros) was the teenage Bannerette riding the elevator up the WTA rankings
Garbine Muguruza, ESP (2019 #36): if the addition of Conchita Martinez can't bring back the "leisurely lethal" Garbi...
Kiki Bertens, NED (2019 #9): she's proven her ability to win big on surfaces other than clay, but will she ever get a better opportunity to win a major than the one her health prevented her from seizing last spring in Paris?
Belinda Bencic, SUI (2019 #8): she finally got healthy and everything came together last season. Now she'll be *expected* to do the same, or even better.
Tennis > ping pong ?? pic.twitter.com/7xB8bEycTF
— Sloane Stephens (@SloaneStephens) January 5, 2020
Sloane Stephens, USA (2019 #25): we'll likely find out in '20 whether or not Sloane *really* wants to climb back up to where she belongs (Top 5, at least). For most of the last two seasons, though, all that chocolate milk in her refrigerator has been going to waste.
Madison Keys, USA (2019 #13): she could wind up anywhere from #5 to #20. You know, just like *every* year.
Johanna Konta, GBR (2019 #12): her game showed new versatility last season, but maintaining her high (again) ranking will likely be even more difficult than her comeback
Alona Ostapenko, LAT (2019 #44): if she keep her service game errors to a (relative) minimum, she could carry over her 4Q momentum. But that's a BIG "if."
OTHER TOP 10 CONTENDERS: Marie Bouzkova/CZE (57), Dasha Kasatkina/RUS (69), Petra Martic/CRO (15), Elise Mertens/BEL (17), Iga Swiatek/POL (61), Donna Vekic/CRO (19), Marketa Vondrousova/CZE (16)
-SELECTED SEASON-END #1's-
Africa/Middle East: Ons Jabeur/TUN
ARG: Nadia Podoroska
BEL: Elise Mertens
CHN: Zheng Saisai
CRO: Donna Vekic
CZE: Petra Kvitova
FRA: Kristina Mladenovic
FRA: [Jr.] Elsa Jacquemot
IND: Ankita Raina
ITA: Elisabetta Cocciaretto
KAZ: Elena Rybakina
LAT: Alona Ostapenko
MEX: Marcela Zacarías
POL: Iga Swiatek
RUS: Dasha Kasatkina
RUS: [Jr.] Oksana Selekhmeteva
SLO: Kaja Juvan
South America: Maria Camila Osorio Serrano/COL
SVK: Viktoria Kuzmova
UKR: Dayana Yastremska
USA: Serena Williams
USA (non-Williams): Sonia Kenin
USA: [Jr.] Alexandra Yepifanova
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 10 JUMPS (i.e. not necessarily season-ending, for all jumps): Sonia Kenin/USA, Karolina Muchova/CZE, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Dayana Yastremska/UKR
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 20 JUMPS: Ekaterina Alexandrova/RUS, Amanda Anisimova/USA, Anna Blinkova/RUS, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Karolina Muchova/CZE, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Maria Sakkari/GRE, Iga Swiatek/POL, Dayana Yastremska/UKR, Zheng Saisai/CHN
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 50 JUMPS: Kristie Ahn/USA, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Anna Blinkova/RUS, Ana Bogdan/ROU, Jennifer Brady/USA, Caroline Dolehide/USA, Fiona Ferro/FRA, Coco Gauff/USA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Ivana Jorovic/SRB, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Antonia Lottner/GER, Caty McNally/USA, Greet Minnen/BEL, Jasmine Paolini/ITA, Bernarda Pera/USA, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Jil Teichmann/SUI, Taylor Townsend/USA, Zhu Lin/CHN
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 100 JUMPS: Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Francesca Di Lorenzo/USA, Leylah Annie Fernandez/CAN, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Tamara Korpatsch/GER, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Vera Lapko/BLR, Antonia Lottner/GER, Caty McNally/USA, Greet Minnen/BEL, Maria Camila Osorio Serrano/COL, Whitney Osuigwe/USA, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN
NEWCOMERS OF THE YEAR: Fiona Ferro/FRA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, "McCoco" (Gauff/McNally, USA/USA), Caty McNally/USA (singles), Maria Camila Osorio Serrano/COL, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN
MOST IMPROVED PLAYERS: Anna Blinkova/RUS, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Caroline Dolehide/USA, Fiona Ferro/FRA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Antonia Lottner/GER, Dana Mathewson/USA (WC), Greet Minnen/BEL, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Raluca Serban/CYP, Iga Swiatek/POL, Zhu Lin/CHN
SURPRISE PLAYERS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Greet Minnen/BEL, Jasmine Paolini/ITA, Nadia Podoroska/ARG, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS
COMEBACKS: Katie Boulter/GBR, Dasha Kasatkina/RUS, Angelique Kerber/GER, Dasha Lopatetska/UKR, Sania Mirza/IND (d), Garbine Muguruza/ESP, Alona Ostapenko/LAT, CoCo Vandeweghe/USA
ITF ACHIEVERS: Indy De Vroome/NED, Raluca Serban/CYP, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Clara Tauson/DEN
JUNIORS TO WATCH: Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Elsa Jacquemot/FRA, Polina Kudermetova/RUS, Robin Montgomery/USA, Katrina Scott/USA, Oksana Selekhmeteva/RUS, Alexandra Yepifanova/USA
DOUBLES DUOS/INDIVIDUALS TO WATCH: Shuko Aoyama/Ena Shibahara (JPN/JPN), Hayley Carter/Luisa Stefani (USA/BRA), Caroline Dolehide/Usue Arconada (USA/USA), Coco Gauff/Caty McNally (USA/USA), Alexa Guarachi/CHI, Giuliana Olmos/Desirae Krawczyk (MEX/USA), Wang Xinyu/CHN
NCAA CHAMPION WATCH: Katrina Jokic/Georgia (SRB), Ashley Lahey/Pepperdine (USA), Anna Turati/Texas (ITA)
FIRST-TIME SLAM WINNER: none
FIRST-TIME SLAM FINALISTS: none
FIRST-TIME SLAM SEMIFINALISTS: Aryna Sabalenka/BLR, Sofia Kenin/USA, Karolina Muchova/CZE
FIRST-TIME SLAM QUARTERFINALISTS: Coco Gauff/USA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Sofia Kenin/USA, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Aryna Sabalenka/BLR, Iga Swiatek/POL, Dayana Yastremska/UKR
FIRST-TIME SLAM ROUND OF 16's: Ekaterina Alexandrova/RUS, Anna Blinkova/RUS, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Viktoria Kuzmova/SVK, Caty McNally/USA, Greet Minnen/BEL, Whitney Osuigwe/USA, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Maria Sakkari/GRE, Jil Teichmann/SUI
FIVE NOTABLE FIRST-TIME SLAM 1st ROUND WINNERS: Clara Burel/FRA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Leylah Annie Fernandez/CAN, Greet Minnen/BEL Maria Camila Osorio Serrano/COL, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN
FIRST-TIME WTA CHAMPIONS: Ekaterina Alexandrova/RUS, Anna Blinkova/RUS, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Viktoria Kuzmova/SVK, Caty McNally/USA, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, Iga Swiatek/POL, Ajla Tomljanovic/AUS, Natalia Vikhlyantseva/RUS, Tamara Zidansek/SLO
FIRST-TIME WTA FINALISTS: Anna Blinkova/RUS, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Jennifer Brady/USA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Danielle Collins/USA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Viktoria Kuzmova/SVK, Vera Lapko/BLR, Caty McNally/USA, Taylor Townsend/USA, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Katarina Zavatska/UKR
FIRST-TIME WTA SEMIFINALISTS: Kristie Ahn/USA, Lizette Cabrera/AUS, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Caroline Dolehide/USA, Leylah Annie Fernandez/CAN, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Han Na-lae/KOR, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Greet Minnen/BEL, Maria Camila Osorio Serrano/COL, Jasmine Paolini/ITA, Bibiane Schoofs/NED, Taylor Townsend/USA, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN
HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER TITLE: Danielle Collins/USA and Kaja Juvan/SLO
HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER FINAL: Caroline Dolehide/USA and Kristie Ahn/USA
2.Elisabetta Cocciaretto, ITA
3.Liudmila Samsonova, RUS
4.Hailey Baptiste, USA
5.Usue Arconada, USA
All right. Now for some additional notions that I can look back on eleven months from now with a smile. Or, you know...
Y cuando por fin creo que ya superé algo en mi vida pic.twitter.com/ELnN3wuBj2
— atr ahre (@atr_ahre) December 19, 2019
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2020 OLYMPIC SINGLES MEDAL MATCHES: [Gold] Halep/Osaka; [Bronze] Kvitova/Svitolina
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2020 SLAM DOUBLES TITLES: (1 each) Babos/Mladenovic, Krejcikova/Siniakova, Mertens/Sabalenka, Barty & *someone* (so many possibilities, including Vandeweghe, Azarenka and others)
===============================================
2020 OLYMPIC DOUBLES MEDAL MATCHES: [Gold] Garcia/Mladenovic vs. Krejcikova/Siniakova; [Bronze] Barty/Stosur vs. Mattek Sands/*Bannerette TBD*
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2020 SLAM MIXED DOUBLES TITLES: (2) Bethanie Mattek-Sands; (1 each) Latisha Chan, Samantha Stosur
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2020 OLYMPIC MX MEDAL MATCHES: [Gold] Mattek-Sands/Sock(?) vs. Barty/Aussie TBD; [Bronze] Osaka/Nishikori(?) vs. V.Williams/Ram(?)
...well, unless Bencic/Federer is a thing (then put *them* in the Gold match)
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2020 IN-SEASON SINGLES #1's: Ash Barty, Simona Halep, Naomi Osaka
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2020 IN-SEASON DOUBLES #1's: Timea Babos/Kristina Mladenovic, Elise Mertens, Barbora Strycova
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2020 ROUND OF 16 AT ALL FOUR SLAMS: Bianca Andreescu, Naomi Osaka, Serena Williams
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2020 QF AT ALL FOUR SLAMS: Serena Williams
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2020 SINGLES TITLE LEADER: Naomi Osaka (singles); Sofia Kenin (singles+doubles)
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2020 MATCH WIN LEADER: Sofia Kenin
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2020 WHEELCHAIR SLAMS:
Diede de Groot will win the three slam singles competitions (AO/RG/WI) held in '20, but win only two in doubles (likely teaming again w/ Aniek Van Koot). During the summer in lieu of a U.S. Open wheelchair event, she'll sweep the Paralympic Golds (the first in her career) to become the first player to win those two medals and all eight major titles (as well as the season-ending Wheelchair Masters singles and doubles crowns). She'll end the season with a successful defense of her s/d Masters titles.
De Groot will defeat Yui Kamiji in two slam finals (and in the Paralympics Gold match), and a resurgent Jiske Griffioen (who came out of retirement late in '19) in the Wimbledon championship.
Marjolein Buis, in her final year of WC competition due to a change in eligibility rules, will reach a slam doubles finals and win a Paralympics medal in doubles.
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Simona Halep will finish 2020 three-quarters of the way to a Career Slam
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Naomi Osaka wins five titles (1 major), plays in two slam finals, reaches the second week of Roland Garros and Wimbledon for the first time, and is the season-ending #1
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FIRST-TIME HIGH PREMIER CHAMPION: Sofia Kenin, Angelique Kerber (0-7 in P5/PM finals), Dayana Yastremska
FIRST-TIME PREMIER CHAMPION: Marie Bouzkova, Karolina Muchova, Alison Riske, Iga Swiatek
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Serena Williams will go down to the wire on career slam #24 (in a classic 3rd set after failing to convert a MP), but will finally get it done this summer. [SIDE NOTE: if she doesn't win it in 2020, she never does.]
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Ash Barty posts her best career Australian Open (QF to date) and Wimbledon (4r) results, but doesn't reach the second week at Roland Garros or the U.S. Open. She win 3+ titles in both singles and doubles (a slam in the latter), as well as her first Olympic medal.
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Bianca Andreescu records her first career #1 wins, reaches a high ranking of #2, plays in her second slam final (and the second week at every major), and wins at least one high Premier title
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Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (career titles: 12) will win career title #13, becoming the only current player in tour history with so many titles but zero slam semifinal results (a distinction previously held by only Elina Svitolina, until 2019)
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Sam Stosur wins her most women's doubles titles in a season since she took home five in 2007
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Garbine Muguruza will win 3+ titles in a season for the first time, and reaches her fourth career slam final
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Sofia Kenin wins her biggest career title in the 1st Quarter of '20, reaches her first slam semifinal by the end of spring, is the highest-ranked U.S. women during the summer, and ultimately leads the tour in match wins and overall (s/d) titles as she finishes off her first Top 10 season in the fall
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18 = Kim Clijsters Total Matches Played in 2020 (UNDER)
16 = Maria Sharapova Total Match Wins (OVER)
14 = Bianca Andreescu Total Tournaments (PUSH)
A WTA player will be defaulted from a slam singles match
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Kim Clijsters records a Top 10 win, but retires from at least two events
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Monica Puig's Olympic Gold medal defense ends before the 3rd Round
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Former SW19 semifinalist Jelena Dokic plays in the Wimbledon Invitational doubles event for the first time
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Camila Giorgi is the *third* highest ranked Italian in the singles rankings at some point during 2020
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Elina Svitolina win 3+ titles (2 high Premier), and records her seventh career #1 win She doesn't reach another slam semifinal.
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Margarita Gasparyan will defeat Elina Svitolina in their first meeting since the Russian retired, after having held a commanding lead, from their 2nd Round match at Wimbledon last year. Svitolina went on to reach her first career slam semifinal at the AELTC.
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Petra Kvitova reaches her first Wimbledon QF since winning the title in 2014. She's joined in the Last Eight by fellow Czechs Karolina Pliskova (a career best at SW19) and Karolina Muchova (her second QF in two Wimbledon MD appearances). Only Muchova reaches the semis.
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Aryna Sabalenka reaches her first two slam QF (and first semi), wins multiple titles in Asia-based events, matches her best career win (Premier 5), wins her second WD slam, and finishes the year in the Top 10 in both singles and doubles
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Kristina Mladenovic wins her first WTA singles title since 2017, sweeping the singles/doubles at the event
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Belinda Bencic wins two singles titles once again, but none are higher than an International level event (she won a Premier & Premier 5 in '19)
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Jil Teichmann reaches her first hard court WTA singles final (12 of her 13 WTA/ITF finals have come on clay, with her only HC final at a 2014 $10K challenger in her first final as a pro at age 17)
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The U.S., with a deep and versatile bench of players to choose from (even if the "top" players don't play), wins Captain Kathy Rinaldi a second Fed Cup title in the "new" event's debut in Budapest this spring. [SIDE NOTE: the U.S. is nearly upset by the Latvians in February's qualifying round tie in Everett, Washington]
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Alona Ostapenko win three titles, including Premier crowns in both singles and doubles (sweeping one event). She returns to the singles Top 20.
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A Belgian upsets a Top 5 player at a major (the Waffle in question is *not* Elise Mertens)
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Sloane Stephens makes one deep slam run, and plays in the final of a high Premier event. She fails to reach a semifinal in any other event.
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Kiki Bertens wins her first career WTA grass court title, and advances to the Round of 16 for the first time in a hard court major
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A French girl will top the season-ending junior rankings for a third straight year, following Clara Burel (2018) and Diane Parry (2019)
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At least one junior slam singles crown will be won a Russian, the first claimed by a Hordette since '16
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Elena Rybakina wins multiple titles, posts at least one QF+ result at a major, records at least three Top 10 wins (one over a Top 5 player at a slam), spends time in the Top 10 herself, and is the tour's Newcomer of the Year or Most Improved Player winner
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The U.S. produces its most different tour singles titles champions in a season since 2000 (when eight different Bannerettes won WTA events), and has more combined singles titles in '20 than any other nation
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Venus Williams will be shut out as far as singles titles for the fourth straight season, but will reach her first final since 2017 and play in a headlining slam Round of 16 match vs. a reigning slam champ (as well as her *second* face-off with Coco Gauff in a major). After ending 2019 at #53, she'll play in a medal match at the Tokyo Olympics, and be seeded at the U.S. Open at age 40.
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In a grass court event, CoCo Vandeweghe reaches her first tour singles final since ankle surgery.
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Iga Swiatek records a win over a former slam winner at a major, then another over a former slam finalist in her very next slam event. At the end of the season, continuing the tradition established by countrywoman Aga Radwanska, she wins her *second* straight Shot of the Year award.
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Three Czechs will be simultaneously be ranked in the singles Top 10. None will reach #1 during the 2020 season.
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Genie Bouchard wins a WTA 125 singles title, her first pro singles title of any kind since 2014
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At least one former slam singles finalist announces her intention to make a comeback in 2021
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Coach of the Year candidates: Sascha Bajin (Yastremska), Wim Fissette (Osaka), Alex Kenin (Kenin), Conchita Martinez (Muguruza)
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A woman representing Mexico will play a main draw slam singles match. Yes, the Blowout prediction tradition continues. And, just you wait, *one* day...)
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Of course, I could be waaaaaay off. Or, you know, in a few months wish I'd gone just a *little* further with a prediction or two (Rybakina... I'm lookin' at you). But, at the very least, I didn't pull back on any *bigger* predictions at the last moment this time around like I did with Andreescu *last* year, so that's saying *something*, I guess. (Yes, that decision still bothers me a year after the fact.)
**BACKSPIN WEEK 1 PLAYERS-OF-THE-WEEK**
2002 Venus Williams, USA
2003 Serena Williams, USA
2004 Lindsay Davenport/USA, Eleni Daniilidou/GRE (co-PoW)
2005 Elena Dementieva, RUS
2006 Lucie Safarova, CZE
2007 Dinara Safina, RUS
2008 Li Na, CHN
2009 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2010 Kim Clijsters, BEL
2011 Vera Zvonareva, RUS
2012 Petra Kvitova, CZE
2013 Serena Williams, USA
2014 Serena Williams, USA
2015 Maria Sharapova/RUS, Simona Halep/ROU (co-PoW)
2016 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2017 Karolina Pliskova, CZE
2018 Simona Halep, ROU
2019 Julia Goerges, GER
2020 ?
**CAREER WEEK 1 TITLES - active**
2...Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2...Julia Goerges, GER
2...Karolina Pliskova, CZE
2...Serena Williams, USA
2...Venus Williams, USA
1...Kim Clijsters, BEL
1...Lauren Davis, USA
1...Simona Halep, ROU
1...Kaia Kanepi, EST
1...Petra Kvitova, CZE
1...Aryna Sabalenka, BLR
1...Maria Sharapova, RUS
1...Katerina Siniakova, CZE
1...Katarina Srebotnik, SLO
1...Sloane Stephens, USA
1...Elina Svitolina, UKR
1...Yanina Wickmayer, BEL
--
ALSO: Daniilidou (2), Jankovic (1)
**MOST RECENT FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN JANUARY**
=2014 Week 2=
Tsvetana Pironkova (SYDNEY), Garbine Muguruza (HOBART)
=2017 Week 1=
Katerina Siniakova (SHENZHEN), Lauren Davis (AUCKLAND)
=2017 Week 2=
Elise Mertens (HOBART)
=2019 Week 2=
Sonia Kenin (HOBART)
**MOST RECENT FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN WEEK 1**
2006 Marion Bartoli (Auckland) - first final
2009 Victoria Azarenka (Brisbane) - had been 0-4 in finals
2017 Katerina Siniakova (Shenzhen) - had been 0-2 in finals
2017 Lauren Davis (Auckland) - had been 0-2 in finals
**MOST RECENT MULTIPLE FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN WEEK 1**
=2000=
Silvija Talaja (Gold Coast)
Anne Kremer (Auckland)
=2017=
Katerina Siniakova (Shenzhen)
Lauren Davis (Auckland)
Dog says to himself halfway down the stairs, "WAIT! I can and must do better than this."
— Amee Vanderpool (@girlsreallyrule) January 2, 2020
Then "I Believe I Can Fly" starts to play in his head. pic.twitter.com/jAFgxeJSWh
All for now.
posted by Todd.Spiker @ 1:30 AM
10 Comments:
Half a million things to comment on, wonderful writeup as usual.
Stephens lost-Re prior post.
Sharapova-Brady match in 3rd set as of this writing, so:
Clijsters-Under
Sharapova-Push
Andreescu-Under
My rebuttal:
44- Total matches played by Keys(over)
40- Total match wins by Halep(under)
20- Total tournaments played by Kenin(push)
Have not had a year without any first time slam finalists since 2006, when Henin won her 5th, Sharapova won her 2nd, and Mauresmo won 1st & 2nd.
Technically, you are right about Bogdan, as she is #1 in the race.
Bouzkova only between 20-30. I love her game, but it takes longer for defense to offense players to break through.
Really like the Jr picks in Scott, Selekhmeteva, and Yepifanova.
Not high on Osuigwe. Just for this year, still young.
AO seeding cleanup:
8. Kvitova and Bertens still alive.
9-16- Vondrousova there, but Mertens and Riske can jump.
17-24- Anisimova still controls her fate. Collins, Wang Q, Kontaveit, Strycova, Putintseva in running.
Last 4 in- Pavlyuchenkova, Sevastova, Strycova, Hsieh.
First 4 out- Rybakina, Alexandrova, Putintseva, Muguruza.
The Blowout! Before I get to that, having watched Collins/Svitolina, that was one of the most listless performances I have seen from Svitolina ever. Almost felt like a Muguruza loss. Muguruza won(drum roll please) for only the second time since Roland Garros.
Now the fun begins. Without any matchplay to assess, we take a look back a the Top 20 vs the winners, to see who should be trending up or down.
But first, a look at those outside the Top 20. The good, bad, and ugly.
Hacksaws- Most wins
7- Sakkari
5- Yastremska
4- Goerges
4- Ostapenko
4- Muguruza
4- Muchova
Sakkari leading this list means she should win a title, and break Top 20 for the first time. Ostapenko and Muguruza aren't back, but both project as title winners, and ranked between 15-25.
Whipping Posts- Most Losses
13- Putintseva
11- Hercog
11- Sakkari
10- Yastremska
9- Muchova
9- Muguruza
Not always a bad thing, it sometimes means you are lasting long enough for the opportunity. For Top 20 players, they should be 50% or better, for this group 33%. Putintseva is on the cusp of something good, while Hercog's numbers suck.
Chum- Zero wins and low winning percentage
0-0 Hibino
0-5 Pegula
0-2 Ferro
2-11 Hercog
1-9 Peterson
1-8 Garcia
2-8 Sevastova
Hibino is a unique red flag. She won a tournament without playing a Top 20 player all season. She did beat #29 Hsieh when she won Hiroshima, for her only Top 50 win of the season.
Pegula is improving, but pick her in internationals, not premiers.
Sevastova was soooo close to becoming #10. Numbers look like she will be closer to 50.
Garcia's numbers look bad, but we know that other factors change the arc. Could an Olympic run in doubles springboard her second half run? Maybe, but don't expect much the first half.
Sharapova goes down.
Top 20 vs the winners- First the stats, then the notes.
34-8 Barty
22-13 Svitolina
22-16 Bertens
21-10 Pliskova
18-10 Bencic
17-14 Kenin
16-11 Kvitova
14-7 Osaka
14-12 Sabalenka
12-9 Halep
11-7 Andreescu
11-9 Martic
10-6 Williams
10-8 Konta
10-10 Kerber
10-12 Riske
9-5 Keys
9-6 Vondrousova
9-15 Vekic
8-13 Mertens
Barty- Regression to the mean is expected, even so, 3-4 titles wouldn't be a shock.
Svitolina- Numbers say slam final, but doesn't pass the eye test.
Bertens- Slam winner? Ironically, pick any of the 3 events not on clay. Played 28 different title winners, including Gauff, Teichmann, and Rybakina.
Pliskova- Slam SF? One of the Top 10 players that padded their stats vs the low end winners like Peterson, Hercog and Putintseva twice.
Bencic- Projects as a possible slam winner, but high end North Americans give her problems.
Kenin- Stats say YEC. Can she manage her schedule properly enough to reach it?
Kvitova- Stats are meaningless with her, as she is probably the best quarter season player on tour. The question is which quarter will she peak in this year?
Osaka- If healthy, one slam, and the year end #1.
Sabalenka- WTA's verson of the Cleveland Browns. Looks good on paper, but...The obvious thing with her in singles is that she is still under .500 for her career at slams. Like Pliskova, cracking the code and reaching the second week for the first time changes her season, and career.
Halep- Impressive as her Wimbledon run was, the only winner she beat there was Gauff. That is a red flag, since non clay specialist Barty beat 4 at RG. Still a threat to win a great match, her numbers more likely point to 6-10 than 1-5.
Andreescu- Numbers say slam finalist, health says work in progress.
Martic- Heart says that last year was a career year. Stats say bottom edge of Top 20.
Williams- Only 10 wins, but she goes for the big events. Should win a title this year, and i'm including doubles.
Konta- If healthy, slam SF. Probably 2-3 more years left between 11-20.
Kerber- Tom Brady? More like Eli Manning. She's isn't bad, but not elite. The loss to Stosur is a good example. Still entertaining, but can't close. Probably between 30-40.
Riske- Numbers not good, but first time up in this atmosphere. Darkhorse YEC participant.
Keys- Note the winning percentage. She should do what she does every year, win a tournament or 2, and reach 2 slam QF. The twist with her is that if she reaches a slam final, the rest of her year will be shot.
Vondrousova- You would expect regression, but from what? Martic, Halep and Martens were the only Top 20 wins, and she hasn't played since Wimbledon. Expect a so so first half, and a better fall season.
Vekic- Putrid numbers. Zhuhai isn't even a given, unless she games the system, and stacks points from internationals. Expected to take a step back.
Mertens- Was expected to take a step back last year, did so, and still finished Top 20. Wins against Teichmann and Ferro point out that she is the mean- she beats those below her, loses to those above with little variation.
Prediction fueled by hope: Marjolein Buis will file and win a lawsuit.
C-
Yes, Samsonova got a jump on this post with that win over Stephens. (Note: I'd picked her for pretty much all the same things last year, but she wasn't quite ready for them. Maybe this year.)
Though it's lower than usual, you could end up being right on w/ Halap's wins. She had 43 last year, and isn't playing FC this year.
I almost left Bogdan out, as it seems as if she's dropped off a bit. But she's starting at #97, so I kept her.
There have been so many first-time slam finalists the last few seasons (9 in four years), I figured we're due a "reset." Certainly someone like Svitolina *could* make it if things fall right.
Oh, that Garcia record. And, remember, where she was at the close of '17. Apparently, there's never going to be a coaching change/addition, though. I picked them, but I wonder if she and Mladenovic *will* play Olympic doubles together. Fed Cup is one thing, after all, and that might be another. Best chance for a medal, though.
Yeah, Halep didn't beat many title winners at Wimbledon. But she *did* beat that Selena... Serenada... oh, yeah, Serena person. Probably better than knocking 2 or 3 (or 4?) winners. Heehee. ;)
I didn't really make any Vondrousova picks because she's such a question mark. Obviously, her high end is very high. But coming back from a wrist injury makes you wonder if she'll be shockingly low ranked after RG, then have to fight her way back into the conversation, maybe even playing challengers in November (ala Andreescu '18) to get matches heading into '21.
D-
If only. But it seems like she's not inclined, or thinks her options have been exhausted since her federation already got things delayed so that she could at least play *this* season.
I still wonder if that whole decision will be revisited down the line and others w/ her same condition will be judged individually (on some sort of scale) rather than *all* being ineligible for the Paralympics (and, in turn, the WC tennis tour). She seems resigned to her fate.
What do they want, for her to play on the WTA tour? So unfair.
Mid-week AO seed update, plus other thoughts.
Sharapova gets long rumored WC for AO.
Regarding your thoughts on Vondrousova- If she pulls out of AO, she will have been out long enough for SR, and would enter events no lower than 16.
Bencic will now enter Adelaide. Really looking like she won't reach 2nd week, although there a bunch of players that look out of form. She got in because Venus pulled out.
AO seeds:
8. Kvitova or Bertens.
9-16. Vondrousova still there, only Riske could snatch.
17-24. Anisimova still controls her destiny, Collins and Kontaveit with outside shots.
Last 4 in- Pavlyuchenkova, Sevastova, Strycova, Rybakina.
First 4 out- Alexandrova, Muguruza, Hsieh, Putintseva.
Others with mathematical chance- Wozniacki, Goerges, Brady.
Sounds like it'd be smart for MV to pull out then, just to give herself the cushion while she can.
Late week AO seed update.
1-4 in order will be Barty, Pliskova, Osaka, Halep.
8. Is in flux due to Andreescu's withdrawal. Kvitova moves to 7, Bertens is 8, but Williams bumps her with title.
9-16. Mertens now 16 seed.
17-24. Stephens now 24 seed, but with her maiden title, Alexandrova gets her first seed at 25.
25-32. Last 4 in- Rybakina(1st time seed), Pavlyuchenkova, Sevastova, Strycova(33)
Last 4 out- Muguruza, Wozniacki, Hsieh, Putintseva.
Adelaide and Hobart lists are out. Players that did not play week 1 but are slated to play are Halep, Vondrousova, Van Uytvanck(pulled out of singles but played doubles), Kuznetsova, Diatchenko, Rus. That leaves Ostapenko, Hercog, Swiatek, and Kovinic as the only 4 Top 100 players still entered going into the Open without match play.
So Serena got the monkey of her back and won a title after over three years witout one. Nice to see her and Caro too. Why haven't they done this before with all the fun they had on court
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