Fed Cup Qualifying Round Preview
Well, ready or not (and like it or not), it's time to tear the wrapper off a new era of Fed Cup competition.
Twelve teams are set to meet in Budapest in April in a week-long event to crown a champion. The final eight nations to be invited will be determined this weekend as a result of a series of hosted qualifying ties. The winners will join 2019 finalists France and Australia, as well as the Czech Republic (via an instant wild card berth, which serves as a collective "whew!" moment for everyone playing *this* weekend) and Hungary (the mostly "underwomaned" hosts, which serves as a cheap ploy to bolster local attendance at the expense of a more deserving team, but I suppose palms must "greased" to help things run more smoothly... hmm, perhaps that was one of the problems with the WTA's recent Debrecen fiasco?)
While the longtime "feel" of important home ties are lost in the new format, the idea isn't completely eliminated. This weekend's eight qualifiers will adhere to the event's home court tradition, with some of the tour's top players (but not *all* representing the competing nations) joining in on the action.
A look at the match-ups, and some predictions...
*QUALIFYING ROUND*
Latvia at United States (Everett, Washington USA - HCI)
LAT: Ostapenko,Sevastova,Marcinkevica,Vismane (C:Florin Segarceanu)
USA: S.Williams,Kenin,Riske,Gauff,Mattek-Sands
(C:Kathy Rinaldi)...since her 5-0 start as U.S. captain in 2017-18, Kathy Rinaldi has gone 1-2. Granted, those losses were to the Czechs (in the '18 final) and (eventual '19 finalist) Aussies, but this is still a crucial home tie, with a loaded roster that includes Serena, in the mix for the first time in two seasons, along with new Australian Open champ Kenin (though she's proven to be a fighter, she's just 1-3 in FC play) and a debuting Gauff. Latvia has been kept afloat by the two-woman force that has been Ostapenko and Sevastova (in singles *and* doubles) for the last couple of years. They'll be hard pressed to get a road win here with Williams bringing her 13-0 career FC singles mark to the festivities. It'll likely be *more* interesting to see whether Kenin (likely a bit tired due to play and travel, but a longtime Rinaldi favorite and with a chance to shine on U.S. soil right after winning in Melbourne), the undervalued Riske or Gauff (there would likely be some frustration if she's on the roster and doesn't see action, even if she *is* the fourth-highest ranked member of the team) gets the Day 2 opportunity to either put the Bannerettes in charge on the scoreboard, or maybe clinch the win.
PICK: USA def. LAT 3-1...hunch: Kenin (because she deserves it) and Gauff (because everyone wants to see it), order to be determined.
Belarus at Netherlands (The Hague, NED - RCI)
BLR: Sabalenka,Azarenka,Sasnovich,Govortsova,
Marozava (C:Tatiana Poutchek)
NED: Bertens,Rus,Kerkhove,de Vroome,Schuurs
(C:Paul Haarhuis)...whether or not Azarenka actually plays for Belarus ('17 RU/'19 SF), the odds are that this tie comes down to Sabalenka. If she can win both her singles matches the tie will likely go in BLR's favor. On the other hand, if Bertens (18-2 in FC, but playing for the first time in three years) can reclaim her spot in the competition and put the Dutch team on her back then perhaps the squad's losing streak will end in The Hague. Ever since the nation's long winning streak and Cinderella semifinal run in '16, Haarhuis' charges have gone 1-6, including four straight defeats in 2018-19. A 4-1 1st Round loss in '17 vs. BLR set the tone for the Netherlands' spiraling Fed Cup experience in recent years.
PICK: BLR def. NED 3-2...Sasnovich to the rescue, then the Belarusians win the deciding doubles
Japan at Spain (Cartagena, ESP - RCO)
JPN: Osaka,Doi,Nara,Shibahara,Aoyama
(C:Toshihasha Tsuchihashi)
ESP: Suarez Navarro,Sorribes Tormo,Bolsova,Arruabarrena,Garcia Perez
(C:Anabel Medina Garrigues)...a year ago, GGP (a 3-0 weekend) led a come-from-behind charge over the Osaka-less Japanese, but she won't likely see the court here (not even in a possible deciding doubles, with Shibahara/Aoyama aboard). The Japanese have gone with a T-E-A-M approach in recent ties, with nearly every match win produced by a *different* team member, but that'll change with Osaka (5-1 FC) in the game in Cartagena, though the surface doesn't *necessarily* play to her advantage. CSN, in perhaps her last FC appearance ever, likely holds in her hands the answer to whether this will be a Japanese-controlled weekend. If she were to get one singles victory (or, gulp, two?), a home town upset wouldn't be out of the question. Spain is 3-0 in the all-time head-to-head.
PICK: JPN def. ESP 3-2...outside of the U.S., Japan has the deepest viable roster of the weekend, and it might be needed. Aoyama/Shibahara have won two tour titles since last fall, and will try to do what Kato/Ninomiya couldn't do last February -- win a DD vs. Spain.
Canada at Switzerland (Biel, SUI - HCI)
CAN: Andreescu,Fernandez,Bouchard,Dabrowski
(C:Heidi El Tabakh)
SUI: Bencic,Teichmann,Golubic,Voegele,Bacsinszky (C:Heinz Gunthardt)...the Swiss might be in a more commanding position if this tie was on clay (mostly because of the role Teichmann, the only player on tour in '19 w/ multiple clay titles, would likely play), but all eyes will be on Andreescu. Making her '20 debut, assuming she's able, she'll be thrown into the fire with a big-time road match-up against Bencic that could turn the tie in one direction or the other. Well, that is, unless Bouchard (as she has, even as her tour singles results have flagged) rises to fill a potential void. Then again, you wager one Genie... and I match, and raise you one Golubic.
PICK: SUI def. CAN 3-1...but if Andreescu quickly regains her form, this one could easily be flipped the other way (which I've already done with this pick). The (Fed Cup) heart says go Canada, but the head says Swiss. Of course, the head could have a few holes in it on this occasion... recall what happened the last time I underpicked Bianca at the start of '19.
Russia at Romania (Cluj-Napoca, ROU - HCI)
RUS: Alexandrova,Pavlyuchenkova,V.Kudermetova,
Kuznetsova,Kalinskaya (C:Igor Andreev)
ROU: Bogdan,Bara,Ruse,Cristian,Olaru
(C:Florin Segarceanu)...making good on the notion that she'd likely skip FC under the new format, Simona Halep won't be representing Romania this weekend. She's one of six of the top seven ranked Swarmettes who aren't in Cluj-Napoca to take on the generationally-diverse Hordettes. Just how much *can* the home court advantage help here? As it is, the Russians definitely hold the talent edge. Russia climbed out of zone play last February, and quashed the Italians (4-0) in the WG II Playoffs to get to this Q-round, extending an active consecutive tie-winning streak to four. Andreev has seemingly found a way to be a Pavlyuchenkova Whisperer (5-1) in Fed Cup in every way that previous captains Shamil Tarpischev Anastasia Myskina (4-8) weren't. That should be beneficial.
PICK: RUS def. ROU 4-0...the mini-Revolution kicks in with a mini-big win (in these nations' first match-up since 1986) and perhaps a hope that the likes of Kasatkina and Sharapova are willing, healthy and in form enough to lend a hand in Budapest when the opponents become far bigger and badder than the Romanian "C"-team.
Germany at Brazil (Florianopolis, BRA - RCO)
GER: Siegemund,Maria,Friedsam,Lottner
(C:Rainer Schuettler)
BRA: Ce,Pereira,Pigossi,Alves,Stefani
(C:Roberto Burzagli)...easily the least star-studded of the of weekend qualifiers, the Haddad-less Brazilians still appear to be well overmatched here (even with Siegemund, though she was a superior claycourter pre-knee injury, without a FC win in her career) against a veteran-laden German squad. If Schuettler drops this tie in his debut as captain, he's going to have some explainin' to do.
PICK: GER def. BRA 3-0...done in time to get in some extra sightseeing before heading back to Europe
Kazakhstan at Belgium (Kortrijk, BEL - HCI)
KAZ: Putintseva,Diyas,Danilina,Shvedova
(C:Dias Doskarayev)
BEL: Mertens,Flipkens,Minnen,Bonaventure
(C:Johan Van Herck)...after losing to the Brits in the WG II Playoffs last spring, the traditionally underachieving Kazakhstani FC team got lucky with the life line to '20 title contention extended it via the new format. While the squad is an Elena Rybakina short of being a virtual "dream team," the roster consists of players with a combined 40 Fed Cup singles wins. But will it be enough to overcome Mertens, the best player in this tie? This one could come down to a deciding doubles match led by a pair of veterans in Flipkens (3-11 in WD, 16-31 overall) and Shvedova (10-5, back from ankle surgery and having a baby, and possibly seeing her first action since 2017).
PICK: BEL def. KAZ 3-1...with Shvedova's form and participation in question, I'll go with the odds (and KAZ's history) that it won't even get to the doubles. Plus, maybe Kim Clijsters' practice session with the team this week gives the Waffles just enough inspiration.
Great Britain at Slovakia (Bratislava, SVK - RCI)
GBR: Watson,Dart,Bains,Swan,Raducanu
(C:Anne Keothavong)
SVK: Kuzmova,Cepelova,Rybarikova,AK.Schmiedlova,
Sramkova (C:Matej Liptak)...after a 26-year slog, the Brits finally broke through the Fed Cup ceiling with their 3-1 WG II Playoff win over Kazakhstan last spring, reaching the top level of the competition for the first time since 1993. And then the ITF changed the format, making their victory virtually irrelavent (KAZ plays on the same weekend). And now top-ranked Brit Jo Konta isn't in Bratislava to take advantage of all the work she put in took to get the squad here, leaving the fate of the '20 effort in the hands of Watson (20-9) and Dart (0-0). It *might* work out all right for Anne Keothavong, but surely the host Slovaks enter as the favorites even without the now-retired Dominika Cibulkova. While Kuzmova has failed to truly break through on the tour level, she *has* been a capable leader between in the lines in her fledgling FC career, and will be called upon to carry a large part of the load again. Rybarikova hasn't played since U.S. Open qualifying, and hasn't recorded a win since Wimbledon, so Cepelova will probably be used in the #2 singles slot.
PICK: SVK def. GBR 3-1...a tight tie isn't out of the question, but Kuzmova (4-1 +?) further carves out her Fed Cup niche
*ZONE PLAY*
Zone play starts up mid-week, so here are some picks for that competition...
Americas I (Santiago, CHI- RCO)POOL A: Colombia,Paraguay,Venezuela
POOL B: Argentina,Chile,Mexico,Peru...as is the case in these arrangements, after the round robins the Pool #1's face off vs. the Pool #2's in the promotional playoffs.
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS (2 advance): Argentina and Chile
Asia/Oceania II (Wellington, NZL - HCO)POOL A: Mongolia,New Zealand,Pakistan,Singapore
POOL B: Guam,Philippines,Thailand,Turkmenistan......Tamarine Tanasugarn (THA) has been playing Fed Cup since 1993. At 42, she's here once again after 57 previous tie appearances.
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS (1 advances): New Zealand
Europe/Africa I (Tallinn, EST & Esch-sur-Alzette, LUX - HCI)EVENT A: Austria,Bulgaria,Croatia,Estonia,Greece,Italy,Ukraine
EVENT B: Luxembourg,Poland,Serbia,Slovenia,Sweden,Turkey...two events at two different sites, with the likes of Svitolina (UKR), Yastremska (UKR), Kontaveit (EST) and Giorgi (ITA) included on the Event A rosters, Krunic (& the Serbian Bracelettes) and Swiatek (POL) in Event B.
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS (4 advance): Ukraine and Greece; Poland and Slovenia
Europe/Africa II (Helsinki, FIN - HCI)POOL A: Georgia,Israel,Moldova,Tunisia
POOL B: Denmark,Egypt,Finland,Portugal...a new era dawns for Denmark, as Dane hope #1 is now young Clara Tauson. Jabeur is playing for Tunisia.
PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS (2 advance): Egypt and Tunisia
All for now.
5 Comments:
With 2 tournaments next week in St. Petersburg and Hua Hin, Fed Cup goes to the Friday-Saturday tilt that they partially did last year. Onto the preview!
LAT/USA
MIP-(Most Important Person)- Ostapenko
US roster is loaded, and can use any number of combinations. Normally, teams that have a slam winner playing the next week only have that player go once, so more likely Williams/Riske on Day 1, with Kenin on Day 2. Ostapenko is obviously getting 2 matches, so she has to take advantage. US pretty easily.
BLR/NED
MIP- Rus
Bertens will get 2 starts if healthy. If Rus plays like she did down under, she would be the second best player in this tie. Sabalenka isn't even a lock to get 2 singles rubbers. Having been worn down in the past, she may get held for doubles on Day 2. One of the better ties of the weekend, Netherlands squeaks by.
JPN/ESP
MIP- Osaka
Osaka has to win her 2 matches for Japan to win. Why? They are one of the few that brought a doubles team, leaving them with only 3 valid choices for singles. Spain won't get shut out, as Suarez Navarro should beat their #2, but in an Olympic year, Japan throws down the gauntlet.
CAN/SUI
MIP- Teichmann
You thought I was going to say Andreescu. Real interesting tie even if she doesn't play, with both Teichmann and Fernandez both capable of getting 2 matches, or being lefty specialists. At the very least, Bencic would be expected to win one match, so Teichmann needs to bring it home. Switzerland in a close but fun tie.
RUS/ROU
MIP- Bogdan
Oof! Bogdan, the team member that didn't play during the Czech Republic tie last year, probably leads this team. First thought is this might be a slaughter, but expect a bunch of 6-4 sets as Russia has less experience than expected. Red flag is if Kuznetsova plays before doubles. Russia easy by matches, but not by scoreline.
GER/BRA
MIP- Friedsam
There has to be one. Like a Browns-Jets game in December, this is it. #18 Brazil doesn't have a player in the Top 200, and even the player rankings for #27 Hungary are better. So why Friedsam? Well, both Siegemund and Maria have a habit of pulling out of Fed Cup matches with illness. More likely she will get one start. Either way, not the Pan Am Games, so no hope for Brazil without a retirement.
KAZ/BEL
MIP- Diyas
Assume that she will get 2 starts, as will Putintseva. If Mertens and Putintseva cancel each other out, Diyas has to hold serve, no matter who Belgium puts out there. Shvedova is doubles only. Kazahkstan in a nail biter.
GBR/SVK
MIP- Kuzmova
This is good for the wrong reasons. SVK has often injured Sramkova, often injured Cepelova, often injured Rybarikova, often injured Schmiedlova. As weak as Britain's roster looks after Watson, she might just carry them to doubles. Slovakia, but this is the tie to watch if you want somebody to make a name for themselves.
Ah, I'd knew about the Fri/Sat thing before, but had forgotten about it. Wonder how much that's going to hurt attendance on Day 1, at least in Washington? Unless maybe they're going to play Day 1 in the evening, then in the afternoon on Saturday? :/
So we're only different on two (NED/BLR, KAZ/BEL). Not bad, I thought there might be more. ;)
7 of 8 matchups out, US last as usual.
Biggest news is that Pavlyuchenkova and Kuznetsova are out for Russia. This means that Russia does not have anybody that has ever won a singles rubber on their roster. Romania has one, ironically it is the doubles specialist in Olaru.
Azarenka out.
Clijsters practicing with Belgium Fed Cup team. But like KAZ pick better with Bonaventure going twice.
Ukraine finally brought their best. Svitolina, Yastremska, Tsurenko, Kostyuk all in uniform.
USA/Latvia has the late tilt, so the first day was marked by comebacks. Bertens, Mertens, Kuzmova and Putintseva all showed their mettle in turning things around.
The fact that Dabrowski replaced Bouchard in singles means we shouldn't expect Andreescu for doubles.
That leaves the what the what performance for Osaka, who was as bad as the score signified. 50 UE on the day, and against a server with an attackable serve like Soribbes Tormo, she did nothing.
Tsuchihashi will earn his money. Do you bench Osaka, or play long game, knowing that you have her for the next 15 years? Will he lose the rest of the team if she plays? How he handles this is important for both Osaka and Japan's team.
This doesn't surprise me about Osaka (I couldn't watch, of course; all USA matches are blocked). Osaka runs hot and cold, and I still think it's a maturity problem. Granted, she does much better in public/press situations now, but I still suspect that her maturity level is below what her age suggests.
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