Thursday, October 01, 2020

RG.5- A Latvian Tempest

Do you hear that? Is that thunder? Maybe even... Latvian Thunder?




Alona Ostapenko and Roland Garros will forever be linked, as three years ago the Latvian fireballer impetuously turned the celebration of her 20th birthday into a maiden slam title run, blasting winners from everywhere on the court in one of the most devastatingly -- and devilishly -- entertaining two-week long performances we've seen from a single player in a major in ages. Maybe decades.

But until this week, no matter how great it had been, that was Ostapenko's *only* good Roland Garros. She'd gone 0-2 since her 2017 title, just as she'd gone 0-1 before it. Now ranked #43 (nearly positioned in exactly the same spot she was three years ago in Paris, when she was #47), Ostapenko has spent much of her time on tour since her star-turn trying to recapture the magic she so casually produced from her fingertips back then. Sometimes she's shown similar flashes, but usually not for long. For a while now, it was clear that Ostapenko needed a coach who might be able to throw a lasso around her "bucking bronco-like" abilities and somehow tame them while not also deadening the fantastic spirit that fuels what she can do with a racket in her hand.

Enter Thomas Hogstedt. And so far, so good.

As one of the last to play in the Restart, Ostapenko emerged from the shutdown cocoon as even more of a mystery than usual. After a quick loss in her debut event, she was a welcome surprise in Strasbourg last week, stringing together multiple wins (one over Kiki Bertens) and reaching the QF while seeming to play with a little more "control." Ostapenko said it was the more "conservative" approach she was trying to make work in her favor while teaming with the coaching Swede.

Ostapenko totaled nearly fifty winners in her 1st Round win over Madison Brengle earlier this week, setting up a clash with #2-seed Karolina Pliskova today on Court Chatrier. Prior to her title run in Paris, Ostapenko had seemed to earn a new glint in her eye after facing the Czech (then #5 and having played in the U.S. Open final the previous season en route to reaching #1 later in '17) at that year's Australian Open. She lost in their 3rd Round encounter, but had led 5-2 in the 3rd set before falling 10-8. It seemed odd at the time, but she was almost cheery afterward. Because she knew. A former junior champion, Ostapenko knew then and there that she had the goods in her racket to beat one of the WTA tour's best. She was ranked #38 at the time, and about five months later she won Roland Garros.

Coming in, three of the five meetings between Ostapenko and Pliskova had gone three sets. But not this one.

In the 69 minutes it took to play today's 6-4/6-2 match, Ostapenko broke Pliskova's serve five times and won 54% of her return points. She fired 27 winners (vs. the Czech's 9) and held her UE total under 20 (19).



Basically, Ostapenko sported what was a "relatively clean" version of her supercharged game. Serving well and playing good defense, she utilized drop shots and didn't try to paint lines with *every* shot. The power, of course, is a given. Just like the fearlessness. Those are simply ingrained in the Ostapenko package. It's the rest that makes you raise an eyebrow, and wonder.

With lovely Paris memories maintaining her mood, and good results mining her confidence, what is Ostapenko capable of at Roland Garros *this* time?

This was Ostapenko's 13th career Top 10 win, and her third in the (shortened) 2020 season. She had four in a full '17 campaign, still her career high. The last she had at Roland Garros was when she defeated Simona Halep in the final.

After the last few years, some may wish to pass off Ostapenko's title run in Paris as a "fluke." But don't be so sure. Another line of thought has always *also* been that only the *conditions* needed to be right to see a recurrence of another such tempest to form. Through two rounds, there's at least reason to consider whether such a phenomenon might be close to re-forming.



So, is this a "flash storm" that will dissipate quickly, or is something *really* brewing?

Well, "Latvian Thunder" has a special sort of echo, and it often makes you smile. But it's dangerous to get out ahead of it. Then you give it the power to disappoint. And Latvian Thunder is something to be thoroughly enjoyed, not judged, measured or its level of lethal intent predicted.

But *hoping* isn't against the rules. *That* we can do.

via GIPHY







=DAY 5 NOTES=
...two days after making her stunning slam debut at Roland Garros, 17-year old Dane Clara Tauson was brought back down to earth in the 2nd Round. With her leg seemingly wrapped a bit more than before, the teen's game just wasn't the same against Danielle Collins as it had been versus #21 Jennifer Brady.



Tauson, playing in her fifth match at RG after having made her way through qualifying, called for a trainer after the 1st set, and came out strong in the 2nd, going up 2-0. But Collins' break for 3-2 permanently turned the tide in her favor as she won 6-2/6-3.



...such open-and-shut matches were the norm in the (too) overly loaded first-match-up schedule on Day 5 (did *both* top-seeded Czechs have to play simultaneously, one against a former RG champ, while the 1st Round "It Girl" Tauson likely wasn't even able to get anywhere near the eyeballs for her *second* match as she deserved, as it was also being played at the start of the Order of Play?), as #7 Petra Kvitova also handled Italy's Jasmine Paoline a 6-3/6-3 defeat.



The Tennis Channel crew was (partly) joking that Kvitova, whose game is always so helped by indoor conditions, might be checking the Paris weather reports and hoping to get to play under the roof on Chatrier as often as possible as things go along. They *do* have a point.

...meanwhile, #8 Aryna Sabalenka's match against Dasha Kasatkina showed just how fine a line it is between success and failure. A week and a half or so ago, Kasatkina was looking resurgently great in Rome, then she turned her ankle. She was able to play at this RG, and looked very good in her 1st Round opener. The Russian had chances to jump on the Belarusian today, but failed to take advantage, and then everything just blew out like a punctured tire.

Kasatkina opened the match by breaking Sabalenka's serve today, then after things had been leveled, she broke again to serve for the set at 6-5. But Kasatkina's serve was broken. After falling behind 5-3 in the tiebreak, the Russian stormed back to hold a SP at 6-5 after she'd gotten to a Sabalenka drop shot and the Belarusian couldn't respond in kind. But Sabalenka threw in another drop shot on SP, and this time she saved it with a lob. Soon she had a SP of her own on the Kasatkina serve, which she converted to win 8-6.

Sabalenka then broke the Russian to start the 2nd. Kasatkina had four BP chances to get the break back, but couldn't. Deflated, she didn't win another game, losing 7-6(6)/6-0. So close, and yet so far.

...elsewhere on Thursday, the only two active U.S. woman with slam singles titles on their resumes (but not named Williams) both found themselves tasked with staging a comeback in order to keep their RG prospects alive and well. Only one of them succeeded in the effort.

Australian Open champ Sofia Kenin, the #4 seed, fell behind Romanian Ana Bogdan 2-0 in the opening set, and faced a BP that would have put her down 3-0. She managed to avoid that dilemma, but soon found herself in a 3-4, love/40 hole on her own serve in game #8. Bogdan got the break, served out the set and then had a pair of BP opportunities to take a break lead in the 2nd, as well.

Kenin stopped the slide, though, avoiding another deficit and going on to take the 2nd set, then getting an early break in the 3rd that she rode until the end of the match, winning 3-6/6-3/6-2 to follow up last year's Round of 16 in Paris with (at least) a trip into the 3rd Round (where she's gotten at five of the last six majors).



In her match, #29 Sloane Stephens, a U.S. Open champ three years ago and a RG finalist two, trailed Spain's Paula Badosa (who just notched her first career slam MD win in Melbourne in January) by a set and a break before she finally rallied. Stephens knotted the 2nd set at 4-4, then got the late break and took the set 6-4. But that was all she had. Badosa quickly rushed to a 4-0 lead in the 3rd, closing out the 6-4/4-6/6-2 victory for the 22-year old.



The defeat gives Stephens her worst RG result in nearly a decade, since her 1st Round loss in her slam debut against the late Elena Baltacha at age 18 in 2011. Stephens had reached the final and QF her last two trips to Paris, and at least the Round of 16 in six of her last seven appearances. She's a combined 3-4 in her last four majors.

...even without Bianca Andreescu (the 2017 Roland Garros girls doubles champ), Canada has faired well at this major. Yesterday, wild card Genie Bouchard showed some vintage fight to reach the 3rd Round, and today it was 18-year old Leylah Fernandez's turn to do the same.



The 2019 RG girls singles winner, Fernandez was taken to a 3rd set by veteran Slovenian Polona Hercog, where the teenager grabbed the early break and took home the 6-4/3-6/6-1 victory to reach her first career slam 3rd Round. She'll face Kvitova next.

...meanwhile, Simona Halep was joined in the 3rd Round by fellow Romanians Patricia Maria Tig and qualifier Irina Bara, both reaching the stage for the first time in their careers at age 26 and 25, respectively. Bara is playing in her first slam MD.

#11 Garbine Muguruza made it *two* Pliskova twins sent packing today, ousting Kristyna in straights, while #13 Petra Martic struggled with Russian Veronika Kudermetova, but ultimately got the job done.

After having saved a SP on Kudermetova's serve at 5-3 in the 1st, Martic pushed the set into a TB, but the Hordette won it 7-1. Martic overcame an early break deficit in the 2nd, with Kudermetova looking to pull ahead late, as the set was tied 5-5, before the Croat finally broke to win it 7-5. In the deciding 3rd, it was Martic who finally grabbed an early break advantage at 3-1. She served out the 6-7(1)/7-5/6-3 victory to reach the 3rd Round in Paris for the third time in four years (she was in the QF in '19, her best slam result to date).

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ready for R3! #RG2020

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In an all-German match-up, Laura Siegemund, 32, outlasted Julia Goerges in three sets, reaching the Final 32 for the first time at RG. In truth, it's been a long time coming. Clay has always been Siegemund's best surface (she once carried with her the deadly "clay court specialist" tag, which often -- though not always -- feels like a backhanded compliment).

A few years ago, Siegemund seemed ready to make a big late bloomer slam leap. She reached the 3rd Round at both the Australian and U.S. Opens (and the Olympics, where she knocked off Pironkova in the 1st Round) in 2016, then a season later the then 29-year old won her biggest title on the clay in Stuttgart. She had five Top 10 wins on clay that spring (Venus, Kuznetsova, Pliskova, Halep & Konta), and was looking to be an in-form dark horse pick for a deep run in Paris. But then she tore up her knee in Luxembourg the week before the start of Roland Garros. She was out nearly a year.

Flashforward three years and Siegemund is getting her chance, just off a U.S. Open doubles title run and ranked #66 (in February she returned to the Top 70 for the first time since the injury, when she'd been #32). Her two wins in Paris give her a 17-8 record this season. Eight of Siegemund's nine Top 10 wins have come on clay, but she hasn't had one since she hurt her knee. (The earliest she could face one at this RG is the SF, as while possible QF opponent Kvitova is the #7 seed she's actually ranked #11.) Siegemund will play Martic next.



...with Caroline Garcia safely in the 3rd Round, avoiding a second straight year of no Pastries in the Final 32 (last year's instance was the first in 33 years), three more French women tried to join her today.



Teen wild card Clara Burel managed to do it, defeating Kaja Juvan in straight sets, but veteran Alize Cornet can't say the same. Facing off with Chinese vet Zhang Shuai (the only woman from her country to have been entered in any WTA Q/MD events since the Restart) had a brief reprieve from her fate today when she broke Zhang at love when she served for the match at 5-4 in the 2nd set, then again (saving 4 MP, the last with a DF) at 6-5 to force a TB. Zhang won it 7-3, though, to win 6-4/7-6(3) to match her best career RG result (2017).

Later in the day, in a match moved to Chatrier, Fiona Ferro engaged in a three-setter with #14-seeded Elena Rybakina that went the distance when the Kazakh saved break points in game #8 to hold and maintain her break lead, then later held to tie up the contest at a set apiece.

Rybakina grabbed the early 3rd set break, finally putting away her third BP in game 3, only to drop serve immediately afterward. The Kazakh had three BP chances in game #5, as well, but Ferro held, then broke to go up 4-2. Back-to-back love games followed, as the Pastry held and broke Rybakina at love to win 6-3/4-6/6-2, taking the last 10 points, and 12 of the final 13.



This is Ferro's second career slam 3rd Round (U.S. '19), and the win moves her back ahead of Garcia in the live rankings as the French #1.

The Ferro/Rybakina match completed the 2nd Round for the women's draw, with the Czech Republic, France, Romania and the U.S. in a four-way tie for the most players (3) still remaining in the draw. Twenty-two different nations are represented. There are four teenagers (Anisimova, Burel, Fernandez & Swiatek) and three thirtysomethings (Kvitova, Pironkova & Siegemund) left.


=FINAL 32 BY NATION=
3 - CZE (Krejcikova, Kvitova, Siniakova)
3 - FRA (Burel, Ferro, Garcia)
3 - ROU (Bara, Halep, Tig)
3 - USA (Anisimova, Collins, Kenin)
2 - CAN (Bouchard, Fernandez)
2 - ESP (Badosa, Muguruza)
1 - ARG (Podoroska)
1 - BEL (Mertens)
1 - BLR (Sabalenka)
1 - BUL (Pironkova)
1 - CHN (Sh.Zhang)
1 - CRO (Martic)
1 - GER (Siegemund)
1 - GRE (Sakkari)
1 - ITA (Trevisan)
1 - LAT (Ostapenko)
1 - NED (Bertens)
1 - POL (Swiatek)
1 - RUS (Alexandrova)
1 - SVK (AK.Schmiedlova)
1 - TUN (Jabeur)
1 - UKR (Svitolina)


...in doubles, all the "big-name" seeds advanced, including #1 Hsieh/Strycova, #2 Babos/Mladenovic, #3 Mertens/Sabalenka, #4 Krejcikova/Siniakova, #10 Carter/Stefani and #16 Gauff/McNally.

...my picks lost another quarterfinalist today, as I'd taken an unseeded flier on Cornet following up her best U.S. Open with her best Roland Garros.





...MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN? ON DAY 5:

(i.e. being "more proud" of a "better" bubble that was tangible evidence of a reason to *not* be "more proud"... sooo 2020, and 2016-19, too)




...POSTSCRIPT ON DAY 5:




...LIKE ON DAY 5:

Not from today, but cool (or warm) nonetheless.




...HISTORY ON DAY 5:


...LIKE ON DAY 5:

Here we go... watch it for Sacha Baron Cohen, stick around for Mike Pence




...YEP... ON DAY 5:


...WELL, SHE ALSO CAMPAIGNS TO STOP INTERNET BULLYING, So... ON DAY 5:


...LIKE ON DAY 5:


...CHECK IT OUT ON DAY 5:


...AH... ON DAY 5:


But does Mister Cat condemn white supremacy? Hmmm?



...LIKE ON DAY 5:


...NOTEWORTHY ON DAY 5:


...PERSONAL NOTE ON DAY 5:








When she left for North America for her pro tour in 1926, Lenglen packed her ukulele...





Lenglen poses with a Chandler Six car while visiting the Chandler-Cleveland Motors Corp. factories in Cleveland during the 1926 tour. Lenglen traveled exclusively in Chandlers during her time in the United States with C.C. Pyle, Mama Lenglen and her fellow pros.






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Parisian cliche´

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kosova-font














kosova-font

*RG "Légion de Lenglen" WINNERS*
[formerly "Joie De Vivre" Award, 2011-15]
2011 Virginie Razzano, FRA
2012 Virginie Razzano, FRA
2013 Serena Williams, USA
2014 Kristina Mladenovic, FRA
2015 Francesca Schiavone, ITA
2016 Alize Lim, FRA
2017 Caroline Garcia, FRA
2018 Serena Williams, USA
2019 Court Simonne-Mathieu
2020 US Open Special: Madison Brengle, USA
2020 Court Chatrier roof (and night tennis) debuts





TOP QUALIFIER: Mayar Sherif/EGY (first EGY woman in slam MD)
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #25 Amanda Anisimova/USA (lost 4 games)
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q1: #17q Barbara Haas/AUT def. Diana Snigur/UKR 6-0/5-7/7-5 [Haas led 6-0/5-0 40/30, then DF; won on 4th MP on 5th attempt to serve out match]
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 1st Rd.- (Q) Clara Tauson/DEN def. #21 Jennifer Brady/USA - 6-4/3-6/9-7 (17/slam debut; saved 2 MP, wins on MP #5)
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS (def.Rogers/USA)
FIRST SEED OUT: #17 Anett Kontaveit/EST (1st Rd./Garcia)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Bara/ROU, Burel/FRA, Paolini/ITA, Podoroska/ARG, Rakhimova/RUS, Tauson/DEN, Trevisan/ITA, Zarazua/MEX
UPSET QUEENS: Australia
REVELATION LADIES: Romania
NATION OF POOR SOULS: United States (4 of 7 seeds failed to reach 3r, Serena w/d 2r, US QF/SF Rogers & Brady 1r, Venus 1r, Gauff 2r w/ 19 DF)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: In 3r: Bara, Podoroska, Trevisan (+LL Sharma-2nd Rd.)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: In 3r: Bouchard, Burel, Pironkova
PROTECTED RANKING WINS: Gavrilova (2r), AK.Schmiedlova(in 3r)
LAST PASTRY STANDING: In 3r: Burel, Ferro, Garcia
Ms./Mademoiselle OPPORTUNITY: xx
IT "New Dane on the Block": Clara Tauson/DEN
COMEBACK PLAYER: Nominee: Schmiedlova, Bouchard, Ostapenko
CRASH & BURN: 2020 U.S. Open semifinalists (Osaka DNP; Brady out 1st Rd., Serena w/d 2nd Rd., Azarenka upset 2nd Rd. within 24 hrs. on Day 3/4)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF PARIS: Kiki Bertens/NED (2nd Rd.: injured; Errani up a break 5 times in 3rd, served for match 3 times, 1 MP at 6-5; 3:11; collapses and wheeled off court after 9-7 win)
DOUBLES STAR: xx
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): xx
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: xx
Légion de Lenglen HONOREE: Court Chatrier roof (and night tennis) debuts
Coupe LA PETIT TAUREAU: Simona Halep/ROU [not able to be awarded on LPT Day/June 1, Justine Henin's birthday -- but Halep wins on Day 1 on *her* own birthday]




All for Day 5. More tomorrow.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 6:22 PM 

5 Comments:

Blogger Diane said...

I say Ostapenko is back, but I said that several months ago. I remember, in Charleston last year, she was so candid about what she was going through--you can have that "out of nowhere" magic only once, and she became self-conscious, as would anyone. So far, in Paris, she's a joy to watch.

I agree about Siegemund; she may be my favorite player to watch on clay.

Thu Oct 01, 07:04:00 PM EDT  
Blogger colt13 said...

"What? Like it's hard?"- Elle Woods getting into Harvard.

Fernandez winning her first 2 WTA MD matches on clay is why I used that quote.

Team Pliskova did not look good in either match.

Halep and Ferro still undefeated since restart.

Stat of the Day- 16- French Open appearances in singles for Pauline Parmentier.

Made 17 in doubles too. In the Open Era, the only French players with more are Razzano & Tauziat with 18. Cornet and Chanfreau* have 16.

Chanfreau has 16 total, but 4 were for Australia, and not all in Open Era. Her longevity meant that her last Open was at age 37. Cornet is just now 30, so she may reach 20!

Parmentier was an average player that won 4 titles, but her mark was made at the French Open. Of her 16 MD, 6 were by WC, which makes sense with her career arc.

Her first 3 MD were wild cards, as was this one, which was given to her as a good bye present. The two in the middle were at the opposite end of the spectrum. She got one in 2011 ranked 105, which means she just missed.

The 2014 one she probably didn't deserve. Why? She won her opening WTA level match in 2013, then wen't on a losing streak that went through the year. She at least won some ITF matches, but got a WC and ended the 12 match streak at RG in 2014.

Beat a seed in Vinci, then Shvedova and Barthel, losing to future RG champ Muguruza. This 4th rd was her best slam ever.

Also to note- 6 wins with WC, 4 wins without.

Dropped out of the Top 50 in Sept 2008, re-entered in Oct 2018.

Initially set her career high in wins in 2008, with 16. Tied it in 2012, and again in 2017. Broke it with 17 in 2018.

For an average player, she has almost done it all here, except for playing it twice at the same age. Of the French players, only Paquet(26) and Tan have a chance to play twice before their next birthday.

And yes, if Halep wins, that will become a storyline in June, as she could be the same age and win it twice.

Thu Oct 01, 08:26:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

D-
What happened w/ Siegemund in '17 before RG is similar to what happened to Petrova a few years earlier when she'd had that great spring on clay and looked like a real threat in Paris.

C-
On the other side of the coin, I saw a recent note about some players who'd had birthdays right after last year's RG. So if they were, say, 19 in last year's tournament, they're now suddenly 21 in the very next version. ;)

Fri Oct 02, 06:31:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Diane said...

Ha! Colt, that was also the quote I used in my Australian Open top 10, for Kenin :)

Fri Oct 02, 10:40:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Diane said...

Good point about Petrova/Siegemund, Todd. The Petrova thing was tragic because I really felt like--for once--she might not let her head get in the way, and she would win the tournament. So sad. I miss Nadia.

Fri Oct 02, 10:47:00 AM EDT  

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