Thursday, February 11, 2021

AO.4 - Maybe This Time?

Five seasons ago, upon (temporarily, it turned out) denying Angelique Kerber her rise to the #1 ranking, Karolina Pliskova said, "Maybe next time." In many ways, the phrase has applied to the Czech's career ever since.



Once considered the best active player to have never won a major, the now 28-year old (29 next month) Pliskova has had a banner career. She's reached #1, been a Fed Cup star and often been at her best in her biggest matches (she's 10-3 in finals since 2017). She's been the tour leader in aces (earning her "Ace Queen" moniker), tied with world #1 Ash Barty as the WTA title leader (w/ 4) in the last *full* tennis season in 2019, and has collected 16 tour-level singles titles in her career (behind only Simona Halep's 22 amongst active players in their twenties -- and Halep turns 30 in September). But while Pliskova seemed on the brink of her first major title not that long ago (though, in tennis terms, half a decade really *is* a significant chunk of time), reaching the '16 U.S. Open final, today she's *still* seeking the capping victory that would define her career.

While Pliskova *may* still be the best active player never to have won a major (largely because the other best case possibility, Elina Svitolina, has seen her previous upward trajectory get lost in the weeds in recent campaigns), with the phalanx of younger players marching into contention and advancing deep into majors that "unofficial crown" isn't likely something she'll be able to hold onto much longer. Maybe not even by the time 2022 rolls around.

In many aspects, if her slam window hasn't *already* closed, 2021 might be Pliskova's last chance to slip into that special club.

As the last few years have passed, Pliskova seems to be searching (in vain?) for the right coaching situation to help her make it happen while it still can. She's gone through the likes of Jiri Vanek, David Kotyza, Tomas Krupa, Rennae Stubbs, Conchita Martinez and Daniel Vallverdu in recent years, with most not lasting more than a calendar year. Her hiring this past offseason of Sascha Bajin felt and likely is exactly what it appeared to be when it was announced, namely Pliskova's version of a Hail Mary attempt with a big name coach who's helped guide players to slam titles (most resoundingly Naomi Osaka's first two majors in 2018-19) before.

Heading into this AO, the results hadn't exactly been promising. The Czech was 2-2 on the year, with losses to #292 Anastasia Gasanova (her worst ranking defeat since '13) in Abu Dhabi, and a double-TB defeat at the hands of Danielle Collins in last week's Yarra Valley event on the AO grounds in Melbourne. Pliskova kicked off the first major of '21 having failed to reach the QF at six straight slams, after having done so in seven of ten in the stretch immediately preceding her recent slide in major results which began after her AO semifinal results two years ago.

After losing just two games to Jasmine Paolini in the 1st Round, the #6-seeded Pliskova got the chance on Day 4 to avenge her loss last week to Collins, a player whose career has in many ways been the "flipside" to that of the Czech's (i.e. she's yet to reach a WTA singles final, but has been at her best in the majors, playing in a slam SF -- '19 AO -- and QF at RG over the last two seasons).

Against the Bannerette, Pliskova won the tight set in the 1st that she'd lost twice against Collins last time out. Up a break early, the Czech saw Collins get things back on serve, but Pliskova broke for a 6-5 lead and served out the set. She went on to win 7-5/6-2, reaching the AO 3rd Round for a seventh straight year (her best stretch of consistency at *any* major).



Whether Pliskova has a real (or any) chance to reach her personal promised land at this slam, or any other in '21 or beyond, is anyone's guess. But if her "next time" doesn't come soon, it's pretty likely a certainty that it never will.




=DAY 4 NOTES=
...during the afternoon *after* #2 seed Simona Halep had had to battle back under the lights from a 5-2 3rd set vs. Aussie Tomljanovic Wednesday night on MCA, #1 Ash Barty had her own hands full with an Aussie on Day 4.

Her name? Well, Ash Barty, really.



Barty, who last year became the first Australian woman to reach the AO semis in thirty-six years, had an easy time of things in her 1st Round match, double-bageling Danka Kovinic. Today against wild card Dasha Gavrilova, Barty seemed to be going about a similar pattern against her fellow Aussie. She led 6-1/5-2 and twice served for the match, but then she suddenly couldn't control her shots. In a flash, she found herself down 6-5, serving to stay in the set and avoid having to play three.

In the eventual tie-break, Barty took an early 2-0 lead, but saw Gavrilova inch back. Up 4-3, Barty netted a seemingly easy backhand volley and then sprayed a return. Gavrilova led 5-4. Another flown backhand from the world #1 gave Gavrilova a SP at 6-5. Gavrilova got a short ball that she *should* have easily put away, but she was too tentative and instead netted a crosscourt forehand attempt. After Barty saved a second SP, the two had fully switched roles. Barty was finally settled *just enough* while it was Gavrilova firing off the untimely errors. With the top seed finally holding a MP at 8-7, another Gavrilova error sent a ball wide and Barty slipped through in straights via a 6-1/7-6(6) score.

With her "whew!" moment behind her, Barty proceeded to have some fun in her post-match interview with good friend and former doubles partner Casey Dellacqua, noting how the heavy strapping on her left thigh was lacking in any sort of subtlety, and poking fun at the crowd for its less-then-adequate rendition of "Happy Birthday" in honor of Dellacqua.



This tournament provides what appears to be the perfect conditions for another deep Barty run -- from whatever desire she has to silence the whispers about her #1 ranking after barely playing in '20, to her embrace by the Australian fans and her settled sense of home after not traveling the world playing tennis for the past year -- but today showed that the pressure of potentially becoming the first Aussie AO women's champ in forty-three years (1978-Chris O'Neil) *will* likely raise its head again. No matter that she found a way around such an obstacle in her maiden slam title run two seasons ago in Paris, pressure will be a constant *second* opponent that Barty will have to slap back.

...a week after Estonian tennis experienced its best week ever in WTA competition with both Kaia Kanepi (Gippsland) and Anett Kontaveit (Grampians) reaching singles finals, Day 4 saw both woman advance into the 3rd Round.

Against #4 seeded defending champ Sofia Kenin, the 35-year old Kanepi continued her recent run (improving to 21-2 since Roland Garros last fall). After the Bannerette failed to convert on seven BP chances early in the 1st, Kanepi found her footing and never saw Kenin flash her renowned problem-solving skills. Kanepi coasted to a 6-3/6-2 victory, recording her fifth career Top 10 slam win.



Afterward, Kenin admitted to not feeling her game thus far in '21, and to feeling nervous in Melbourne in her attempt to defend her title. Her 2nd Round exit is the earliest by a DC in Melbourne since Jennifer Capriati's 1st Round exit in 2003.



#21 Kontaveit outlasted Brit Heather Watson. After dropping a 1st set TB, the Estonian was broken when serving at 4-3 in the 2nd, only to get the break advantage back a game later and then serve out the set. She won 6-7(5)/6-4/6-2.



This Australian Open marks just the second time both Kontaveit and Kanepi have reached the 3rd Round at the same major, with the only other coming in the '18 AO. In that event, had both won their 3rd Rounders, they would have faced off in the Round of 16. But Kontaveit fell to Alona Ostapenko, while Kanepi lost to Carla Suarez-Navarro. They'd both have to reach the semis to face each other this time around.

...in a battle of qualifiers late in the afternoon, Kaja Juvan and Mayar Sherif battled in a fascinating to watch match that saw both women physically dragging down the stretch. For her part, Juvan was throwing up into a towel in the 3rd, then going right back out and firing winners and big serves that eventually took down the Egyptian (who'd become the first from her nation to record a slam MD win two days ago).

Juvan had to fight throughout, holding twice in the 2nd set to stay in the match and then winning a TB to force a 3rd. There, she held for 1-0, threw up in the changeover area, got a drink of water, then came back out and broke Sherif's serve. The 20-year old Slovenian saved a BP in game #3 and then held with a big serve. Even while she was clearly physically struggling, she took a 4-1 lead. Serving to win the match, she put in her fifth ace of the day, then closed things out with a forehand passing shot to win 3-6/7-6(2)/6-3 and join Sara Errani as the only qualifiers in the Final 32. It's Juvan's best career slam result.

Juvan immediately dropped her racket and fell to her knees once the match was complete, leaning over with her hands on the court while she gulped for air after the 2:39 contest.



The final stats showed how close the match was, as Juvan's 35/40 Winner/UE ratio matched up nearly identically to Sherif's 32/39. The biggest difference: Juvan's 2-for-6 BP numbers, vs. Sherif's 3-for-19. Juvan scored just five more points overall, 116-111.

While Juvan moves on (though you wonder how much she'll have left to give), Sherif has yet again reset her expections and career goals after this slam. While it didn't get her the win today, the fight she showed is a good indication that she's got quite a few "first Egyptian to..." feats left in her.

...in doubles, the #5-seeded Chan sisters, finalists in last week's Gippsland event, were upset by Sharon Fichman & Giuliana Olmos.



...meanwhile, some early-round awards are in order.

UPSET QUEENS: as expected, this one goe to the Bannerettes, who combined to knock off three seeds in the 1st Round (as well as Ann Li upending Alize Cornet in the 2nd). Coco Gauff is still to finish vs. #5 Elina Svitolina tonight on Laver

REVELATION LADIES: while the Russians (w/ the likes of Kudermetova, Alexandrova and Potapova still alive) were a factor, but this one goes to the Estonians. With both Kontaveit and Kanepi in the 3rd Round, they're a combined 4-0 as Estonia is the only undefeated nation with multiple players remaining in the draw.

NATION OF POOR SOULS: there were a few candidates (GBR and GER, both 1-4 overall), but China gets the nod. After really only seeing Wang Qiang in action in singles on tour during last season's Restart, the collective returning group went 1-5 in Melbourne. Two seeded CHN women (#30 Wang Qiang & #31 Zhang Shuai) lost in the 1st Round, as did all three of the country's players ranked in the Top 50. Additionally, wild card Wang Xiyu missed the tournament entirely after testing positive for COVID.

ZOMBIE QUEEN OF MELBOURNE: barring something remarkable, Simona Halep's comeback from 5-2 down in the 3rd set against Ajla Tomljanovic last night gets the Romanian the honors. She swept the final five games.

CRASH & BURN: Kenin becoming the earliest DC to exit in Melbourne in 18 years seems to fit the bill.

...at the Melbourne Wheelchair Open, #1 Diede de Groot and #2 Yui Kamiji faced off for the 32nd time, and in their 22nd singles final. Less than a week after de Groot claimed the title with a win over Kamiji at the Victorian Open, the Japanese former #1 got revenge on the Dutch woman with a 6-1/6-4 victory on Thursday. The win ends de Groot's 7-match winning streak in the series, and is Kamiji's first win in their last nine singles finals against one another.

De Groot still leads the head-to-head series 18-15 (16-4 in the last 20), and is 15-8 in singles finals (15-3 in the last 18). She *had* won eight straight singles finals over Kamiji, and was 12-1 in their last thirteen such meetings. The last time Kamiji defeated de Groot in a singles final? At this very same Melbourne Open event two years ago.



The AO wheelchair competition is set to start next week, with Kamiji the defending champ.





...NIGHT 3 PLAYBACK ON DAY 4:



...AND SO IT BEGINS ON DAY 4:



...ANYONE ELSE TOTALLY FORGET ABOUT THE AO FINAL SET TB RULE? ON DAY 4:



I know I did. For the record:

*SLAM FINAL SET RULES*
AO: 10-point TB at 6-6 (to 10)
RG: play out 3rd set
WI: TB at 12-12 (to 7)
US: TB at 6-6 (to 7)


...TRUE FACT, BUT... ON DAY 4:



...not that skunks can do this, but that I actually *like* that smell that skunks make.



On "Rock Star:INXS," Jordis Unga sang "Dream On." Which led me to this 2014 combination (from Howard Stern's birthday show) of Steven Tyler, Slash and Dave Grohl on Aerosmith's "Walk This Way." As one of the YouTube commenters noted, it's a combination of a singer originally from the 1970's, along with a 1980's guitarist and a 1990's drummer (performing together in the 2010's).



Here's Guns N' Roses (w/ Slash) on "Sweet Child O' Mine" in 1988...



And a Nirvana "Lithium" performance from 1993. You know, some songs sometimes make you wonder what it'd be like to be a singer for a rock band, and this is one of those. Of course, then you remember how things turned out for Kurt Cobain on his way to and after he got there and you think, "Yeah, maybe not." He committed suicide about a year after this.



No song here for Aerosmith, but instead clips from the "Aerosmith van" saga from History Channel's "American Pickers" from a few years ago when the guys came upon the rusted out shell of the band's original "touring" van from Boston in the early 1970's, and how it eventually found it's way back to the group in Las Vegas.



"Six Degrees of Bowie" continues on Day 5...
















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*de Groot vs. Kamiji*
2021 Melbourne WC Open Final - KAMIJI 6-1/6-4
2021 Victorian WC Open Final - DE GROOT 6-1/7-5
----------------------------------------------------
2020 US Open Final - DE GROOT 6-3/6-3
----------------------------------------------------
2019 NEC Wheelchair Tennis Masters Final - DE GROOT 6-2/6-3
2019 US Open USTA WC Chsp. Final - DE GROOT 6-4/4-6/6-3
2019 US Open Final - DE GROOT 4-6/6-1/6-4
2019 British Open SF - DE GROOT 6-2/6-2
2019 Roland Garros Final - DE GROOT 6-1/6-0
2019 World Team Cup Final - KAMIJI 3-6/6-2/6-1
2019 Japan Open Final - DE GROOT 6-3/7-6(8)
2019 Australian Open Final - DE GROOT 6-0/6-2
2019 Melbourne Open Final - KAMIJI 3-6/7-5/7-6(11) - saved 5 MP
----------------------------------------------------
2018 NED Wheelchair Tennis Masters Final - DE GROOT 6-3/7-5
2018 US Open Final - DE GROOT 6-2/6-3
2018 British Open WC Tennis Chsps Final - DE GROOT 6-2/3-6/3-6
2018 BNP Paribas Open de France Final - DE GROOT 7-5/6-4
2018 Roland Garros Final - KAMIJI 2-6/6-0/6-2
2018 Australian Open Final - DE GROOT 7-6(6)/6-4
---------------------------------------------------
2017 NEC Wheelchair Tennis Masters Final - DE GROOT 7-5/6-4
2017 Open d'Amiens Hauts de France Final - DE GROOT 1-6/7-5/6-3
2017 US Open Final - KAMIJI 7-5/6-2
2017 US Open USTA WC Chsps Final - KAMIJI 5-7/6-3/7-6(12)
2017 British Open WC Tennis Chsps Final - KAMIJI 6-4/6-3
2017 BNP Paribas Open de France SF - KAMIJI 6-4/6-3
2017 Japan Open Final - KAMIJI 6-2/6-2
2017 Melbourne Wheelchair Tennis Open SF - KAMIJI 6-3/6-4
2017 Apia Int'l Sydney WC Tennis Open SF - DE GROOT 7-5/7-6(5)
---------------------------------------------------
2016 Paralympic Games Bronze - KAMIJI 6-3/6-3
2016 BNP Paribas Open de France Final - KAMIJI 6-3/7-6(4)
2016 Toyota Open Int'l de L'ile de Re SF - DE GROOT 4-6/7-5/1-0 ret.
---------------------------------------------------
2015 Sardinia Open QF - KAMIJI 6-1/6-1
2015 BNP Paribas Open de France QF - KAMIJI 6-2/6-4
2014 Swiss Open Starling Hotel Geneva 1st Rd. - KAMIJI 6-1/6-2
--
de Groot leads 18-15 (15-8 in singles F)

*AO "NATIONS OF POOR SOULS"*
2012 GBR (0-4 1st Rd.; all on Day 1)
2013 AUS (1-6 in 1st Rd., 1-7 overall)
2014 ITA (top-seeded #7 Errani & #12 Vinci out 1st)
2015 CHN (year after Li champ, 1-5 in 1st Round)
2016 AUS (1-8 in 1st Rd.; only AUS-born in 2nd is a Brit)
2017 ROU (2-4 1st Rd., First Loss, 1st Seed Out, 3 Top 32 defeats)
2018 USA (0-8 start/1-9 on Day 1; 3/4 of '17 U.S. Open SF ousted)
2019 ROU (2-4 1st Rd., losses to two teens, #25 seed)
2020 BLR (0-2 1st Rd., #11 Sabalenka highest seed; Azarenka absent)
2021 CHN (1-5, 2 seeds out 1r & all 3 Top 50; Wang Xiyu w/d with COVID)

*AO "CRASH & BURN"*
2008 Svetlana Kuznetsova, RUS (3rd Rd.)
2009 Venus Williams, USA (2nd Rd.)
2010 Maria Sharapova, RUS (1st Rd.)
2011 Jelena Jankovic, SRB (2nd Rd.)
2012 Samantha Stosur, AUS (1st Rd.)
2013 Samantha Stosur, AUS (2nd Rd.)
2014 Petra Kvitova, CZE (1st Rd.)
2015 Ana Ivanovic, SRB (1st Rd.)
2016 Simona Halep, ROU (1st Rd.)
2017 Simona Halep, ROU (1st Rd.)
2018 S.Stephens, C.Vandeweghe & V.Williams, USA (1st/'17 US SF)
2019 Dasha Kasatkina, RUS (1st Rd.; lost last 12 games)
2020 Serena Williams, USA (3rd Rd.)
2021 Sofia Kenin, USA (2nd Rd.; earliest AO DC since '03)

*AO "UPSET QUEENS" WINNERS*
2004 Hungary
2005 Russia
2006 Spain
2007 Czech Republic
2008 Russia
2009 France
2010 Russia
2011 Russia
2012 Russia
2013 Russia
2014 Australia
2015 Germany
2016 Russia
2017 United States
2018 Ukraine
2019 United States
2020 Spain
2021 United States

*AO "REVELATION LADIES" WINNERS*
2006 Italy
2007 Belarus
2008 Poland
2009 Kazakhstan
2010 Germany
2011 Czech Republic
2012 Germany
2013 United States
2014 Romania
2015 France
2016 China
2017 Australia
2018 Estonia
2019 Teens (6 in 2nd Rd.)
2020 Kazakhstan
2021 Estonia

**AO "EARLY-ROUND TOP PLAYER" WINNERS, w/ result**
2002 (Week 1 POW) Martina Hingis, SUI [RU]
2003 (Week 1 POW) Kim Clijsters, BEL [SF]
2004 (Week 1 co-POW) Kim Clijsters, BEL [RU] & Justine Henin, BEL [W]
2005 (Week 1 POW) Svetlana Kuznetsova, RUS [QF]
2006 (Week 1 POW) Amelie Mauresmo, FRA [W]
2007 Kim Clijsters, BEL [SF]
2008 Maria Sharapova, RUS [W]
2009 Dominika Cibulkova, SVK [4th]
2010 Kim Clijsters, BEL [3rd]
2011 Kim Clijsters, BEL [W]
2012 Victoria Azarenka, BLR [W]
2013 Maria Sharapova, RUS [SF]
2014 Serena Williams, USA [4th]
2015 Genie Bouchard, CAN [QF]
2016 Victoria Azarenka, BLR [QF]
2017 Karolina Pliskova, CZE [QF]
2018 Angelique Kerber, GER [SF]
2019 Serena Williams, USA [QF]
2020 Serena Williams, USA [3rd]
2021 Naomi Osaka, JPN



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TOP QUALIFIER: Francesca Jones/GBR
TOP EARLY ROUND (1r-2r): #3 Naomi Osaka/JPN
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q3: Whitney Osuigwe/USA def. #22 Mihaela Buzarnescu/ROU 2-6/7-6(1)/6-2 (trailed 6-2/5-2)
TOP EARLY RD. MATCH (1r-2r): Nominee: 2r- #2 Halep d. Tomljanovic 4-6/6-4/7-5; 2:34; trailed 5-2 in 3rd, Tomlj. for match; won last 5 games
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE RD. MATCH (SF-F/WC/Doub.): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Naomi Osaka/JPN (def. Pavlyuchenkova/RUS)
FIRST SEED OUT: #23 Angelique Kerber/GER (1st Rd.-Pera/USA)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Olga Danilovic/SRB, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Nina Stojanovic/SRB
UPSET QUEENS: United States
REVELATION LADIES: Estonia
NATION OF POOR SOULS: China (1-5, 2 seeds out 1r & all 3 Top 50; Wang Xiyu w/d with COVID)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: In 3r: Errani, Juvan; (LL: Schmiedlova-2r)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: In 2r: Gavrilova(L), Stosur
LAST AUSSIE STANDING: In 2r: Barty(W), Gavrilova(L), Tomljanovic(L), Stosur
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: xx
IT (TBD): Nominee: Sherif (1st EGY slam MD win), Juvan, Li, Kanepi
COMEBACK PLAYER: Nominees: Marino (first GS win in 10 yrs.; battled depression), Errani
CRASH & BURN: Sofia Kenin/USA (2nd Rd. to Kanepi; earliest AO DC exit since 2003)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF MELBOURNE: Simona Halep/ROU (2nd Rd.- down 5-2 in 3rd vs. Tomljanovic, sweeps final 5 games)
KIMIKO VETERAN CUP: xx
LADY OF THE EVENING: Nominees: Barty, Halep
"G'DAY/GOOD ON YA, MATE" AWARD: nominees: return of the AUS tennis fans; Barty
DOUBLES STAR: xx
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: [jr. event to be held later in '21]





All for Day 4. More tomorrow.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 4:22 AM 

4 Comments:

Blogger colt13 said...

Ace Queen? Pliskova is 8th for this event so far with 13. In a surprise, the women's leader is Shelby Rogers with 17.

Over the hump match between Sabalenka and Li. Either Li reaches her first slam 4th rd, or Sabalenka is one step closer to that long awaited QF. 2 women that have already reached a final this season.

Juvan/Sherif match was fun. Juvan is another one of those players, like Bouzkova and Teichmann, who have been hurt by the ranking system. They have been stuck in qualifying for much longer than they should, especially Juvan, who was the highest ranked player not to make AO MD directly.

Stat of the Day- 94- The amount of tournaments played since the last 7 matches(QF through F) were all straight sets.

Note that this does not count round robin events.

Last week, when the super tiebreak was used in singles, it was a bad look. First off, it would have affected the last 94 tournaments. The other is that they did this mid tournament, which gave the impression that they were trying to protect certain players.

Earlier in the week, these were the number of 3 set matches in each event. Note that the Grampians event started 4 days later than the others.

23- Gippsland
12- Yarra
2 - Grampians

As fate would have it, Yarra then needed the tiebreak 3 times the very first day. The tiebreak losers were Rogers, Collins, and Podoroska. To some, this may have seen random, but to me this stood out as those 3 have zero WTA titles. Tiebreak favored experience, while a third set may have been beneficial to the younger set.

Now you are probably wondering what event was the last to have 7 straight matches to end the tournament. You would think that it was rather mundane, especially since none of those sets went to a tiebreak. In fact, no loser won 5 games in a set. The first 6 may have followed that script. But the seventh?

Osaka. Williams. Ramos.

Yes, that match. 2018 US Open is the last event, and they made up for the other 6 matches in one shot!

Thu Feb 11, 10:42:00 AM EST  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

I realized afterward that I didn't note, as I usually do, how Pliskova's serving was dictating play around 2016, but hasn't the last few years (coinciding with how she's seemed to slip out of legit slam contention). Of course, I saw last season when anyone mentioned on social media that she's really no longer the "Ace Queen" and probably shouldn't be called that anymore that they got (essentially) screamed at for even suggesting such a thing. So... :/

I'm kinda of worried about Sabalenka in this one. Would like to be pleasantly surprised.

Those were *some* guts (no pun intended) shown by Juvan (and Sherif). By the way, I was pretty proud that I abstained from noting how Juvan was the "Player Whose Name You'll Know..." heading into 2019. ;)

Thu Feb 11, 06:12:00 PM EST  
Blogger Diane said...

"I am actually the Ace Queen!" :)
(Goerges)

Thu Feb 11, 06:29:00 PM EST  
Blogger Hoergren said...

Hope you'll write about the butterfly effect in tennis - that was cute.There is a brilliant You Tube video with the incident. Should be a sign of luck I'm told ;)

Fri Feb 12, 04:51:00 AM EST  

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