2021 Prediction Blowout Postmortem

Sometimes you're right. Sometimes you're wrong. And sometimes you're the Backspin Prediction Blowout.



How close to reality were all those preseason prognostications from eleven months ago?

Well, just like the 2021 WTA season, there was some disappointment, a little outrage, the occasional feeling of pride, a few touches of exhilarating surprise... and, at many stops along the way, an acknowledgement that, in the still-immortal, long ago words of Dinara Safina, "The more you know, the less you sleep."

About those preseason ranking predictions...

GREEN="hits" ...with comments when necessary

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 5 JUMPS (i.e. not necessarily season-ending, for all jumps): Aryna Sabalenka/BLR
...there were three during the season (Sabalenka, Krejcikova and Swiatek), with the former two finishing the year there. Granted, as Sabalenka finished '20 at #10, this didn't seem like much of a reach... but a win is a win, right?

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 10 JUMPS (i.e. not necessarily season-ending, for all jumps): Jennifer Brady/USA, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Iga Swiatek/POL
...a whopping six women made their Top 10 debuts in '21, and Iga was one of them. If not for injury, AO finalist Brady (who reached #13 in February) likely would have made it seven. Rybakina reached #14, but could never have a "big" week (and just missed out on a medal at the non-ranking points Olympic event, too).

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 20 JUMPS: Amanda Anisimova/USA, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Jennifer Brady/USA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Fiona Ferro/FRA, Coco Gauff/USA, Ons Jabeur/TUN, Nadia Podoroska/ARG, Dayana Yastremska/UKR
...Brady, Gauff and Jabeur both broke into the Top 20, though only Jabeur finished there. With a little more time on the schedule, #24 Fernandez (a really good preseason pick here, I think, proving that she hardly "came out of nowhere") likely would have done both, as well. Meanwhile, Anisimova has really receded into the pack.

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 50 JUMPS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Anna Blinkova/RUS, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Barbora Krejcikova/CZE, Ann Li/USA, Jessica Pegula/USA, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Jil Teichmann/SUI, Patricia Maria Tig/ROU, Martina Trevisan/ITA, Zhu Lin/CHN, Tamara Zidansek/SLO
...Badosa really "outkicked the coverage," but at least I heard her footsteps in the distance back in January. I hit Li (#47) almost on the nose (figuratively). Sorribes and Zidansek were "revelations," but their '20 production showed they were on the cusp of something. It's funny to think that Krejcikova wasn't *already* in the Top 50 at season's start.

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 100 JUMPS: Irina Bara/ROU, Ysaline Bonaventure/BEL, Cristina Bucsa/ESP, Clara Burel/FRA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Priscilla Hon/AUS, Katarzyna Kawa/POL, Leonie Kung/SUI, Claire Liu/USA, Caty McNally/USA, Whitney Osuigwe/USA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Clara Tauson/DEN, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Renata Zarazua/MEX
...really disappointed that I couldn't add Cocciaretto (to #112) or Rakhimova (#104, and 2021's "Player Whose Name You'll Know..." pick) in color. This was a good pick for Sherif, but not the best one I made for her in '21 (the one that I think was my best preseason prediction, period).


*RANKINGS PREDICTIONS*
-SELECTED SEASON-END #1's-
Africa/Middle East/Mediterranean: Maria Sakkari/GRE
...the choice was between her and Jabeur, and I went with the "correct" one for '21

Asia/Pacific: [Top 5] 1=Osaka/JPN, 2=Rybakina/KAZ, 3=Barty/AUS, 4=Sh.Zhang/CHN, 5=Tomljanovic/AUS
...I really underpicked Barty here, or maybe overestimated Osaka (though she barely played after the spring) and Rybakina (though she nonetheless rose in the rankings). ACTUAL: 1=Barty, 2=Osaka, 3=Rybakina, 4=Putintseva, 5=Tomljanovic, 6=Zhang

BLR: Aryna Sabalenka
...Vika was really the only challenger here, and didn't come close to doing so

CHN: [Top 5] 1=Zhang Shuai, 2=Zheng Saisai, 3=Wang Xinyu, 4=Wang Qiang, 5=Wang Xiyu
...ACTUAL: 1=Zhang, 2=Zheng, 3=Wang Xinyu, 4=Wang Qiang, 5=Wang Xiyu... boom, boom, boom, boom, boom

CRO: Petra Martic
...Martic, but Konjuh wasn't far back

CZE: [Top 3] 1=Kvitova, 2=Ka.Pliskova, 3=Bouzkova
...Bzzzzz (that means "wrong!")... 1=Ka.Pliskova, 2=Krejcikova, 3=Kvitova

FRA: [Top 5] 1=Ferro, 2=Cornet, 3=Dodin, 4=Garcia, 5=Mladenovic
...1=Cornet, 2=Garcia, 3=Burel, 4=Mladenovic, 5=Dodin, 6=Ferro. The picks were almost as disappointing as the Pastries were in '21

FRA: [Jr.] Oceane Babel
...as of now, RG girls champ Elsa Jacquemot is at #7, while Babel is at #13

ITA: [Top 3] 1=Cocciaretto, 2=Giorgi, 3=Trevisan
...1=Giorgi, 2=Paolini, 3=Trevisan, 4=Errani, 5=Bronzetti, 6=Cocciaretto

KAZ: Elena Rybakina
...at #14

LAT: Alona Ostapenko
...at #28

RUS: Veronika Kudermetova
...1=Pavlyuchenkova, 2=Kasatkina, 3=V.Kudermetova, 4=Alexandrova, 5=Samsonova

RUS: [Jr.] Polina Kudermetova
...she's currently the third-best jr. Hordette at #17 behind Diana Shnaider (#5) and Ksenia Zaytseva (#11)

SLO: [Top 3] 1=Juvan, 2=Zidansek, 3=Hercog
...1=Zidansek, 2=Juvan, 3=Hercog

South America: [WS] Nadia Podoroska
...1=Osorio, 2=Haddad Maia, 3=Podoroska

South America: [WD] Luisa Stefani/BRA
...at #10, ahead of Chile's Alexa Guarachi (#13)

USA: [Top 5] 1=Kenin, 2=Brady, 3=S.Williams, 4=Gauff, 5=Anisimova
...somewhat stunningly, a hit at the top, though Kenin was a virtual ghost this season. 1=Kenin, 2=Pegula, 3=Gauff, 4=Brady, 5=Collins, 6=Rogers, 7=S.Williams

USA: [Jr.] Ashlyn Krueger
...fourth at #19 behind #2 Robin Montgomery, #12 Elvina Kalieva and #18 Madison Sieg
--
30+: [Top 3] 1=Halep(30), 2=Kvitova(31), 3=Azarenka(32)
...1=Pavlyuchenkova, 2=Kerber, 3=Kvitova, 4=Halep, 5=Azarenka

Under 21: [Top 3] 1=Swiatek(20), 2=Fernandez(19), 3=Gauff(17)
...1=Swiatek, 2=Raducanu, 3=Gauff, 4=Fernandez... close to right on target, except for not seeing Emma coming

Wheelchair: [Top 4] 1=de Groot/NED, 2=Kamiji/JPN, 3=Van Koot/NED, 4=Ohtani/JPN
...one can hardly go wrong going with Diede the Great. 1=de Groot, 2=Kamiji, 3=Van Koot, 4=Whiley, 5=Montjane, 6=Ohtani


=BIGGEST 2021 RANKING FALLS=
[2020 Top 25] #14 Johanna Konta/GBR, #25 Angelique Kerber/GER ...yes on Konta (the biggest non-retirement related fall at 97 spots), no on Kerber (who actually went *up*)
[2020 #26-50] #39 Sloane Stephens/USA, #34 Wang Qiang/CHN ...Sloane fell 25 spots, which wasn't great (but nowhere near the biggest slip). Wang went down 70, the third-biggest non-retirement drop in the group. She only went 10-14... but at least she was able to leave China.

=BIGGEST 2021 RANKING RISES=
[2020 #26-50] #47 Nadia Podoroska/ARG, #48 Coco Gauff/USA, #31 Ons Jabeur/TUN, #42 Fiona Ferro/FRA, #44 Alona Ostapenko/LAT, #46 Veronika Kudermetova/RUS
...well, Jabeur went up 21 (which was good for only eighth-best in the Top 25 in the year of big jumps by Krejcikova, Badosa, Fernandez, etc.). Coco rose 26, Alona 16, Kudermetova 15. Podoroska and Ferro fell.
[2020 #51-75] #52 Marie Bouzkova/CZE, #70 Paula Badosa/ESP, #53 Alize Cornet/FRA, #61 Anna Blinkova/RUS, #66 Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP
...Badosa (62 to #8) had the biggest rise in the year-end Top 10, while Sorribes had a 30-spot climb to #36. Cornet fell to #59, but went from the fourth-highest ranked French woman to the first.
[2020 #76-100] #88 Leylah Fernandez/CAN, #99 Marta Kostyuk/UKR, #97 Ann Li/USA, #87 Tamara Zidansek/SLO, #94 Varvara Gracheva/RUS
...big rises here. Fernandez up 64 to #24, Kostyuk 48 to #50, Li 50 to #47, and Zidansek 57 to #30. Gracheva was a more modest 15 to #79.
[2020 #101-150] #104 Kaja Juvan/SLO, #133 CiCi Bellis/USA, #132 Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, #128 Mayar Sherif/EGY, #101 Anastasia Potapova/RUS, #123 Wang Xiyu/CHN, #113 Katarzyna Kawa/POL, #141 Genie Bouchard/CAN
...Juvan finished just inside the Top 100, Sherif just outside the Top 50 (#64), and Potapova ended at #69.
[2020 #151-200] #153 Wang Xinyu/CHN, #155 Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, #152 Clara Tauson/DEN, #161 Whitney Osuigwe/USA, #162 Cristina Busca/ESP, #157 Leonie Kung/SUI
...Wang Xinyu (#99) and Tauson (#44) finished in the Top 100, while Rakhimova (#117) was a bit outside.




Awards and honors...


Kamilla Rakhimova, RUS ...Rakhimova scratched the surface in '21, as the 20-year old nearly cracked the Top 100 (as high as #104) and reached the 3rd Round of the U.S. Open (in her second major MD) with wins over Mladenovic and #32-seed Alexandrova. It was the Russian's best slam/tour-level singles result of the season. She reached three WTA doubles finals, winning her first two titles. It was a Raducanu-like surge, but she now has a presence on tour.


GREEN="hits" ...with comments when necessary

NEWCOMERS OF THE YEAR: Clara Burel/FRA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Ann Li/USA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Katrina Scott/USA, Clara Tauson/DEN, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Zheng Qinwen/CHN
...Li and Tauson won maiden singles titles, Burel reached her first WTA final, Wang Xinyu finished in the Top 100 and reached a tour-level semi, Rakhimova won her first two doubles titles, Juvan cracked the Top 100 and won her first WTA WD crown. Fruhvirtova, still just 16, reached the Charleston 250 QF and won two ITF crowns.

MOST IMPROVED PLAYERS: Anna Blinkova/RUS, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Momoko Ohtani/JPN (WC), Whitney Osuigwe/USA, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Tamara Zidansek/SLO
...Fernandez reached the U.S. Open final, won her maiden tour title and finished in the Top 25. Kostyuk cracked the Top 50 and reached her first slam Round of 16 (RG). Sorribes Tormo won her maiden title and became one of the woman the top players did *not* want to face (see #1 Barty in the Tokyo heat at the Olympics). Zidansek became Slovenia's first slam semifinalist (RG) and won her maiden WTA title.

SURPRISE PLAYERS: Cristina Bucsa/ESP, Maddison Inglis/AUS, Katarzyna Kawa/POL, Danka Kovinic/MNE, Robin Montgomery/USA
...Montgomery (still just 17) swept the U.S. Open girls singles/doubles titles and is currently the junior #2. Kovinic rebounded from a March back injury to upset the likes of Kvitova, Putintseva and Jabeur to reach the Charleston (500) singles final, her first at tour-level since '16, then reached another semi a week later at the 250 event in the city.

COMEBACKS: Bianca Andreescu/CAN, Katie Boulter/GBR, Alexandra Cadantu/ROU (ITF), Oceane Dodin/FRA, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, CoCo Vandeweghe/USA (d), Marketa Vondrousova/CZE
...Andreescu at least *played* again in '21. She reached the Miami final and U.S. Open 4th Round, but will start '22 just inside the Top 50. Candantu (now Ignatik) reached her biggest final since 2017 (losing to Czech teen Linda Noskova in a $60K). Dodin reached the Palermo SF, and later returned to the Top 100. Potapova posted her best slam result (AO 3r, having upset #24 Riske), and played in the Doha QF after wins over Keys and Bencic. Vondrousova reached two slam 4th Rounds (AO/RG) and won Silver at the Tokyo Olympics (w/ Top 10 wins over Osaka and Svitolina). Vandeweghe got her first slam MD win since 2018, and reached her first tour WD final (Chicago) in three years.

ITF ACHIEVERS: Carolina Alves/BRA, Erika Andreeva/RUS, Kamilla Bartone/LAT, Maria Carle/ARG, Alina Charaeva/Oksana Selekhmetova (RUS/RUS), Carole Monnet/FRA, Sebastianna Scilipoti/SUI, Zheng Qinwen/CHN
...Carle won her biggest pro title ($25K), and went 2-0 in BJK Cup play in her singles debut in the April playoffs. Zheng picked up three ITF circuit crowns, getting wins in finals over Linda Fruhvirtova, Aleksandra Krunic ($60K) and Martina Trevisan. Andreeva reached the RG girls singles final, while Scilopoti reached the U.S. Open girls semis.

JUNIORS TO WATCH: Oceane Babel/FRA, Kristina Dmitruk/BLR, Alexandra Eala/PHI, Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Polina Kudermetova/RUS, Linda Noskova/CZE, Diana Shnaider/RUS, Alexandra Vecic/GER, Darja Vidmanova/CZE
...Noskova won the RG girls title, while Dmitruk played in the U.S. Open girls final (and won the Wimbledon GD w/ Shnaider). Shnaider reached the RG junior semis and won J1 Villena. Linda Fruhvirtova was in the Wimbledon junior final four, and won two J1 titles, defeating sister Brenda in the Guadalajara J1 final in November. Brenda also took home three J1 titles (College Park, Astrid Bowl and Vrsar). Eala won the Milan JA crown and RG girls doubles. Babel was the Banana Bowl (GA) champ.

DOUBLES DUOS/INDIVIDUALS TO WATCH: Hayley Carter/Luisa Stefani (USA/BRA), Alexa Guarachi/Desirae Krawczyk (CHI/USA), Yui Kamiji/Momoko Ohtani (JPN/JPN) in Parlympics, Bethanie Mattek-Sands/USA & Sania Mirza/IND in a big event/slam, Arantxa Rus/Tamara Zidansek (NED/SLO), a CiCi Bellis/Marketa Vondrousova (USA/CZE) reunion
...Carter/Stefani reached three WTA finals, including Miami (but went 0-3). In all, Stefani played in six WTA finals (1-6, winning Montreal 1000 and reaching Cincinnati 1000 final w/ Gaby Dabrowski) and won Olympic WD Bronze. Guarachi/Krawczyk won two titles while Guarachi also claimed the Dubai 1000 (w/ Jurak) and Krawczyk won three (!!) slam MX crowns in a row (RG-WI-US).

COACH OF THE YEAR: Anton Dubrov (Sabalenka), Jorge Fernandez (L.Fernandez), Issam Jellali (Jabeur), Emmanuel Planque (Ferro), Sandra Zaniewska (Cornet)
...Dubrov was in the running during the year as Sabalenka reached #2 and the Wimbledon and U.S. Open semis. Fernandez played in the U.S. Open final. Jellali may get real consideration for the tour's year-end award after Jabeur's historic Top 10 and title-winning campaign.

Slam notions and first-timers (along with all the rest, there are a few pretty good picks in here, actually)...
FIRST-TIME SLAM WINNER: Aryna Sabalenka/BLR
...still waiting

FIRST-TIME SLAM FINALISTS: Aryna Sabalenka/BLR
...see above (and the WTA Finals did not exactly encourage one to think that '22 will finally be the year, either)

FIRST-TIME SLAM SEMIFINALISTS: Coco Gauff/USA, Aryna Sabalenka/BLR
...Sabalenka reached back-to-back slam semis at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Of course, Svitolina did that a few years ago at the same two majors, so it might not be a precursor to *anything*. Gauff will be picked here (at least) in the '22 Blowout picks, too.

FIRST-TIME SLAM QUARTERFINALISTS: Alize Cornet/FRA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Fiona Ferro/FRA, Coco Gauff/USA, Barbora Krejcikova/CZE, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Aryna Sabalenka/BLR, Maria Sakkari/GRE
...some very nice percentages here. Krejcikova won RG. Fernandez reached the U.S. final. Sabalenka and Sakkari (RG/US) reached *multiple* slam semis. While Gauff and Rybakina both had their QF breakthroughs in Paris.

FIRST-TIME SLAM ROUND OF 16's: Anna Blinkova/RUS, Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Clara Burel/FRA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Oceane Dodin/FRA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Ann Li/USA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Jil Teichmann/SUI, Tamara Zidansek/SLO
...it's nice to see that I was fully on the Fernandez train even before the whistle blew. Kostyuk seems *this* close to something bigger in '22. Though she jumped the pick by two rounds, having Zidansek here back in January seems like it was an above average prediction. Not very good on the other picks, though.

NOTABLE FIRST-TIME SLAM 1st ROUND WINNERS: Cristina Bucsa/ESP, Alina Charaeva/RUS, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Elsa Jacquemot/FRA, Katarzyna Kawa/POL, Polina Kudermetova/RUS, Leonie Kung/SUI, Robin Montgomery/USA, Whitney Osuigwe/USA, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN
...well, at least Samsonova had wins at the AO (2r), WI (4r) *and* US (2r). Meanwhile, Sherif reached the AO 2nd Round.

NOTABLE FIRST-TIME SLAM MD SINGLES APPEARANCES: Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Matilda Mutavdzic/GBR, Giuliana Olmos/MEX
...Fruhvirtova's time will come soon. And, yeah, I went with the *wrong* British teenager.

FIRST-TIME WTA CHAMPIONS: Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Ons Jabeur/TUN, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Barbora Krejcikova/CZE, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Nadia Podoroska/ARG, Ajla Tomljanovic/AUS, Renata Zarazua/MEX, Tamara Zidansek/SLO
...there were 17 first-time champions on tour this season.

FIRST-TIME WTA FINALISTS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Anna Blinkova/RUS, Clara Burel/FRA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Ann Li/USA, Nadia Podoroska/ARG, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Renata Zarazua/MEX
...there were 18 first-time finalists on tour this season. Correctly picking Sherif to be one of them may be my best (or at least favorite) preseason prediction for 2021.

FIRST-TIME WTA SEMIFINALISTS: Cristina Bucsa/ESP, Clara Burel/FRA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Ivana Jorovic/SRB, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Ann Li/USA, Greet Minnen/BEL, Whitney Osuigwe/USA, Jasmine Paolini/ITA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Katrina Scott/USA, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Clara Tauson/DEN, Wang Xinyu/CHN
...pretty good, but I'm bothered by not having Tauson in her first final.

HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER TITLE: Paula Badosa/ESP, Anna Blinkova/RUS, Ann Li/USA
...Badosa and Li both won titles, while Blinkova sank to #155. Four Top 50 players (Rogers, Tomljanovic, Martincova and Kostyuk) are without titles.

HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER FINAL: Danielle Collins/USA, Greet Minnen/BEL, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP
...Collins and Sorribes won maiden titles, while Minnen reached her first final. #50 Kostyuk is the only Top 50 player without a career tour-level final appearance.

Major winners and leaders...
*MISCELLANEOUS PREDICTIONS* 2021 SLAM SINGLES CHAMPIONS: (1 each) Bianca Andreescu, Simona Halep, Naomi Osaka, Aryna Sabalenka
...Osaka, Krejickova, Barty & Raducanu. =============================================== 2021 SLAM SINGLES RUNNERS-UP: (1 each) Victoria Azarenka, Petra Kvitova, Garbine Muguruza, Serena Williams
...Brady, Pavlyuchenkova, Ka.Pliskova and Fernandez (just like everyone expected). =============================================== TOKYO OLYMPIC SINGLES SEMIFINALISTS: Ash Barty, Naomi Osaka, Aryna Sabalenka, Serena Williams
...Bencic (Gold), Vondrousova (Silver), Svitolina (Bronze) and Rybakina. ===============================================

2021 SLAM DOUBLES TITLES: (2) Babos/Mladenovic; (1 each) Mattek-Sands & someone (Kenin, Mirza or Vandeweghe?), Krejcikova/Siniakova
...Mertens/Sabalenka, Krejcikova/Siniakova, Hsieh/Mertens and Stosur/Zhang. How's that singles-focus thing going for Kiki? =============================================== TOKYO OLYMPIC DOUBLES MEDAL SEMIFINALISTS: all-BLR duo, all-CZE duo, Barty/Stosur, all-USA duo
...Krejcikova/Siniakova (Gold), Bencic/Golubic, Pigossi/Stefani (Bronze) and V.Kudermetova/Vesnina. ===============================================

2021 SLAM MIXED DOUBLES TITLES: Latisha Chan, Coco Gauff, Barbora Krejcikova, Samantha Stosur
...Krejcikova, Krawczyk (3). =============================================== TOKYO OLYMPIC MX SEMIFINALISTS: Barty/an Aussie man, Gauff/a U.S. man, Halep/a Romanian man, Sakkari/Tsitsipas
...Pavlyuchenkova/Rublev (Gold), Vesnina/Karatsev (Silver), Barty/Peers (Bronze) and Stojanovic/Djokovic. ===============================================

2021 WHEELCHAIR SLAM WINNERS: Diede de Groot (2), Yui Kamiji (1)
...de Groot sweeping all four (in the first year with *both* the U.S. Open and Paralympic competitions). =============================================== 2021 PARALYMPIC FINALS: Diede de Groot def. Yui Kamiji; de Groot/Van Koot def. Kamiji/Ohtani ...de Groot def. Kamiji; de Groot/Kamiji def. Shuker/Whiley (Kamiji/Ohtani Bronze). ===============================================

2021 IN-SEASON SINGLES #1's: Ash Barty, Simona Halep
...Barty all year long. =============================================== 2021 IN-SEASON DOUBLES #1's: Timea Babos/Kristina Mladenovic, Hsieh Su-wei
...in order of most weeks at #1 through 11/15 week: Hsieh, Mertens, Krejcikova, Sabalenka, Mladenovic and Siniakova (season-ending). =============================================== 2021 ROUND OF 16 AT ALL FOUR SLAMS: Victoria Azarenka, Sofia Kenin, Petra Kvitova
...only Swiatek managed the feat =============================================== 2021 QF AT ALL FOUR SLAMS: none
...none =============================================== 2021 SINGLES TITLE LEADER: Aryna Sabalenka
...Barty (5).

2021 SINGLES FINAL LEADERS: Simona Halep & Elena Rybakina
...Kontaveit (7).

2021 SINGLES MATCH WIN LEADER: Sofia Kenin
...Kontaveit (48) and Jabeur (48).

2021 S+D MATCH WIN LEADER: Elise Mertens
...Krejickova (45+40=85). Mertens had 66 (33+33), just behind V.Kudermetova (33+40=73). Mertens & Kudermetova have announced that they'll team in doubles in '22. Mertens won majors in '21 with two different partners (AO/Sabalenka, WI/Hsieh).

=============================================== 2021 BJK CUP FINAL: BLR def. CZE
...Russia (Russian Tennis Federation) def. Switzerland in the final in Prague. ===============================================



Incumbent Top 10 season predictions, and other odds & ends...
#1 Barty: Claims 2 singles titles, but has no slam SF+ result. Still, she wins multiple medals in Tokyo.
...again, I really underestimated the Aussie's response after not playing most of '20. She led the tour with five titles, winning her second major at Wimbledon. She won a medal in Tokyo (MX Bronze), but just one.

#2 Halep: Wins third career slam crown, returns to #1, and wins two Masters 1000 titles. Leads tour in finals, and plays in Olympic medal match.
...nearly a "lost" season due to injuries, as she missed both RG and SW19 and played in just one final (and not until October) without winning a title for the first season since 2012. She missed her second straight Olympics, as well. Halep *did* have decent results in the two majors she played (AO QF, US 4r), but she briefly slipped out of the Top 20 after having been there since '13.

#3 Osaka: Completes fourth consecutive season with a slam title, nearly returning to #1 (but not quite). Plays in Gold match in Tokyo Olympics.
...not exactly the season anyone expected from Osaka, but she *did* extend her slam-winning streak to four seasons (w/ AO) and had chances to return to #1, but never did. She fell in the 3rd Round of her home Olympics in Tokyo.

#4 Kenin: Takes three titles, and is tour's match win (season and slam) leader. Reaches another slam SF, and the 4r at all four majors. Her three slam QF top WTA in '21.
...a calamitous year saw Kenin's AO title defense (2nd Rd. loss) be the shortest on record since 2003, then in her following event to lost to an unranked player in her worst defeat as a pro. Next came appendicitis, the exit of her dad Alex as coach, and injury during the summer. At Wimbledon, she committed 41 UE in a 45-minute 2nd Round defeat. Kenin failed to reach a final and was just 11-10 on the season (5-3 in slams, after going 16-2 in '20). She announced in November that Alex had returned as coach.

#5 Svitolina: Again wins multiple titles (including her biggest since WTAF '19 -- a Masters 500+), and reaches a third career slam SF (but is handily defeated). Also has at least one slam loss to a #75+-ranked player.
...Svitolina's only title was at the Chicago 250, and her best slam result was a U.S. Open QF. At the majors, she had losses to then-#61 Pegula (AO) and then-#73 Fernandez (U.S.). She won Olympic Bronze.

#6 Pliskova: Wins no more than one title (and maybe less) in '21, and must "salvage" slam year w/ a U.S. Open 4th Rd. result. Teaming with coach Sascha Bajin doesn't last the season.
...after a very slow start in which Bajin seemed days away from being let go, Pliskova hit her stride in the spring/summer, reaching finals at Rome, Wimbledon and Montreal, as well as the Cincinnati SF and U.S. Open QF. She didn't win any titles (0-3 finals), but climbed to season-ending #4. Bajin could even get some mild consideration for Coach of the Year honors (well, maybe 3rd or 4th place votes, at least).

#7 Andreescu: Returns after missing all of '20 to win a second major, record 5+ Top 10 wins, and claim two Masters 500+ titles.
...had her best result (Miami RU) early in the comeback, but again pushed through injuries, as inconsistency and rustiness left her just 17-12 (though it *seemed* a bit worse) on the season. She did finish with a Round of 16 result in her return to the U.S. Open before wrapping up '21 with a 3rd Rd. exit at Indian Wells.

#8 Kvitova: Reaches a fourth career slam final, but again doesn't get third major title. Plays in 4th Round at all four majors, and rebounds with w/ two singles titles after being shutout in '20 (ending a 9-year streak).
...after QF-SF-4r slam results in' 20, Kvitova was just 2r-2r-1r-3r in '21. She did get her first title in nearly two years, though, taking Doha in her only final appearance. For the first time since 2007, Kvitova failed to notch a Top 10 win as she slipped to #17.

#9 Bertens: Has a very slow start after offseason Achilles surgery, having her first final-less season since '15. Her lone second week run at a major comes in Paris. Wins a pair of WD titles.
...predictably, Bertens started extremely slowly, going 0-3 before getting her final BJK Cup singles win. She soon announced her retirement, playing her final match in the Olympic 1st Rd. (loss to Vondrousova) to end 2-8. Bertens has since announced that she's pregnant with her first child.

#10 Sabalenka: A Barty-esque (circa '19) season -- i.e. super-versatile -- that sees her win her maiden slam singles crown after never previously having reached a major QF. Climbs into the Top 5 and leads tour (all alone) with 5+ singles titles (2 Masters 1000 and 2 500 wins), plays in *two* medal matches in Tokyo, picks up two WTA doubles crowns (both w/ Mertens) and leads Belarus to its first BJK Cup title. She *may* briefly join the short list of WTA players (Smashnova & Medina-Garrigues) with 10+ titles and no slam QF, but will quickly remove her name from such ranks.
...had a promising start, opening with a Week 1 title in Abu Dhabi and AO doubles title w/ Mertens. She pulled back from doubles the rest of the year, and later won her second '21 singles (career #10, so she briefly was on the 10+ title, no slam QF list) in Madrid (her first career clay crown) and reached back-to-back slam semis in London and New York en route to a #2 finish. After contracting Covid, though, Sabalenka missed the late-in-the-year Indian Wells event, and wasn't exactly match tough (especially with her DF-heavy serve) at the WTAF, where she failed to close out a SF-or-bust final round robin match during which she had multiple leads.

Serena Williams: reaches her 34th career slam final, but loses for a fifth straight time as the quest for #24 remains unfulfilled. Still, she becomes the oldest WTA singles champion ever (with a title after mid-April, breaking Billie Jean King's record with a win at age 39, 203 days in '83), matches Martina Navratilova's record for career #1 wins (Serena has 17, Martina 18) and gets within one of 50 career wins over #1/#2 (she enters '21 w/ 46). In Tokyo, Williams matches sister Venus' record with her fifth career Olympic tennis medal.
...yeah, none of this. Serena did open strong with a SF in the AO (and had a 4r run in Paris), but failed to reach a final for the first time since 2006. Her win over #2 Halep in the AO QF gave her a 47th #1/#2 win in her career. She was only a part-time (if that) presence on tour, though, and was just 12-5 on the season. =============================================== Elena Rybakina: the Kazakh reaches the Top 10, wins two titles (at least one a Masters 500+), shares the tour lead for most finals and reaches her maiden slam QF.
...Rybakina got as a high as #14, but failed to reach a final after playing in five in '20. She squandered multiple leads in the Olympic SF and Bronze match and went home with no medal. The Kazakh *did* crack through the slam QF wall in Paris, though, then reached the Wimbledon Round of 16. =============================================== A lucky loser reaches the Round of 16 at a slam (the first since 1993), while a qualifier plays in the Roland Garros QF
...two lucky losers (Minnen & Rakhimova) reached the U.S. Open 3rd Round. Meanwhile, though it didn't happen in Paris, a qualifier reached the U.S. Open QF. Her name was Raducanu, and she won the whole thing. =============================================== A former singles #1 and/or slam finalist announces that she is coming out of retirement
...not as of today, although former doubles #1 (4-time major champ) and slam singles semifinalist Elena Vesnina *did* return. She reached the Wimbledon doubles final, RG mixed final and played for two Olympic medals in Tokyo (winning MX Silver, but finishing 4th in WD). =============================================== Monica Puig's Olympic Gold medal defense ends in the 1st Round in Tokyo
...the injured Puerto Rican wasn't even able to play. She didn't play all season, in fact, and underwent shoulder surgery. =============================================== Coco Gauff: wins a slam title, reaches her first major singles semi, and plays in a medal match in Tokyo. Claims her second tour singles title, her biggest so far, at a Masters 500 event.
...Gauff did have her best slam result, but it was "only" a QF at RG. She reached the U.S. Open doubles final, and missed the Olympics due to Covid. She won her second tour singles title, though, sweeping the singles and doubles in Parma (250). =============================================== Leylah Fernandez: wins her maiden WTA singles title, and reaches back-to-back finals at some point during the season. Fernandez reaches the Top 20, upsets a Top 8 seed at a major and plays in her first slam QF.
...Fernandez won her maiden title in Monterrey, climbed as high as #24 and reached the U.S. Open final in a remarkably exciting run that saw her upset *three* Top 5 seeds (Osaka, Svitolina and Sabalenka). =============================================== A Canadian player not named Bianca defeats a reigning world #1.

Meanwhile, Genie Bouchard (#141) returns to the Top 50 for the first time since March 2017. She reaches at least one final, but remains title-less since 2014.
...Fernandez's win over #2 Sabalenka was her top win. while Bouchard reached the Guadalajra 250 final (losing to Sorribes to fall to 1-7 in her career), but not long afterward ended her season with a shoulder injury. =============================================== A WTA singles final features players with an age difference of more than 20 years.
...Serena was sort of necessary for this one to play out. As it was, the biggest age difference was 12 years between Gauff (17) and Wang Qiang (29) in Parma. =============================================== Venus Williams (#79) falls out of the Top 100 for the first times since March 2012.
...not only did Venus fall out of the Top 100 (in May), but out of the Top 200 and 300 (in one fell swoop in November), as well. She ended at #313, her worst finish since she was unranked at the start of her career in 1994 (when she played her first two career matches). =============================================== Garbine Muguruza: reaches her fifth career slam final, and wins multiple tour titles in a season for the first time since 2017. Her multiple surface titles include her first on clay since claiming Roland Garros in '16.
...Muguruza didn't reach a slam final, but she won her first WTA Finals crown and her three singles titles (all on hard court) were a career high in a season. =============================================== Iga Swiatek: climbs into the Top 10, though her best slam result is "just" a SF. Adds two more tour titles to her '20 RG crown (both at Masters 500+ events) and records two overall wins over different reigning #1 singles players.
...Swiatek reached the Top 10 and while she didn't reach another slam SF (her best was a RG QF) she was the only player on tour to reach the Round of 16 in all four majors. She *did* win a pair of 500+ titles (Rome 1000 with a double-bagel of Pliskova/Adelaide 500), but her three Top 10 wins didn't include one over #1 Barty. =============================================== Victoria Azarenka: reaches a slam final and semi, while reaching the Round of 16 at each of the four majors. Returning to the Top 10 for the first time since 2016, she wins a Masters 1000 title and records just her second #1 victory since '13.
...injuries again slowed Azarenka's momentum, and she reached just one slam 4th Round (RG). She played in the Indian Wells 1000 final, falling to Badosa in a 3rd set TB. Her win over Svitolina in Doha gave Vika at least one Top 10 win in all but one season (2017) since 2007. =============================================== A player records wins over the world #1 and #2 in a single major for the first time since 2009 (RG-Kuznetsova).

A player has the chance to become just the fourth player in tour history -- Graf '99 RG, S.Williams '02 Miami, V.Williams '08 WTA -- to post wins over the world's top three ranked players in a single event, but fails to do so with a loss in the final.
...at Wimbledon, Pliskova defeated #2-seeded (but #4-ranked) Sabalenka but lost to #1 Barty in the final. At the U.S. Open, Fernandez posted wins over #3 Osaka and #2 Sabalenka en route to the final. =============================================== A player ranked outside the Top 300 wins a tour singles title, the lowest-ranked champion since 2001 and the second lowest-ranked (not counting unranked players) winner in tour history.
...#180 Camila Osorio's title run in Bogota produced the lowest-ranked '21 champ. Of course, just two months before her U.S. Open title, Emma Raducanu was ranked #338. =============================================== An all-Belarusian semifinal or final takes place in a slam
...Sabalenka made two slam semis, but Azarenka was nowhere to be found. =============================================== Bannerette Katrina Scott is youngest tour singles semifinalist of the season
...Gauff, then 16, reached the Adelaide semis in February. 15-year old Linda Fruhvirtova reached the Charleston 250 QF. =============================================== Jennifer Brady: reaches her second hard court slam singles semi, climbs into the Top 10 and wins her biggest career title (anything higher than a 250).
...Brady opened with strength, following up her '20 U.S. Open semi by reaching the AO final. She got as high as #13 before injuries sidelined her season. =============================================== Nadia Podoroska: her Paris run proves to be no fluke, as she rises into the Top 20, reaches the Round of 16 again at RG (as well as at a hard court slam). She reaches multiple 250 finals, winning her maiden tour title, as well as playing in at least one 500+ semifinal.
...the Argentine had a hard time following up her surprise '20 campaign and RG semi, notching just two MD slam wins (AO/WI). She *did* reach the doubles semis in Paris, though, and collected a pair of Top 10 wins (Kvitova in Melbourne, Serena in Rome), but didn't reach a tour-level SF in '21. She *did* reach the QF of the Yarra Valley (Melbourne) 500 event in Week 2. =============================================== Alize Cornet: the Pastry's thirtysomething resurgence includes her winning her biggest career title (500+), and multiple crowns in a season for the first time in her career. A year after completing a "Career Round of 16 Slam" in New York, she reaches her first major QF as she pushes her consecutive slam MD appearance streak to 59 by the end of '21 (just 3 behind Ai Sugiyama's tour record of 62).
...Cornet reached her first final in two years (Chicago), but didn't advance past the 2nd Round in any major (though she extended her major MD appearance streak to 59). In a down year for the Pastries, Cornet ended up as the highest-ranked French woman on tour at #59. =============================================== Two of the season's four junior slam champs (including the AO event, which is scheduled to be played later in the year) hail from Russia and France.

The last Hordette winner was Anastasia Potapova at the '16 Wimbledon, while Elsa Jacquemot (the third straight Pastry to finish as the year-end girls #1) won the 2020 Roland Garros, the first French winner since '09.
...though the AO said the junior would be held later, it never was. Thus, only three junior slams were held, and were won by Czech Linda Noskova (RG), Spaniard Ane Mintegi del Olmo (WI) and Bannerette Robin Montgomery (US). Russian Erika Andreeva reached the RG junior final. =============================================== A seeded women's player (or Round of 16 participant) faces suspension after failing a drug test at a major
...none comes to mind, though 2019 Wimbledon Round of 16er Dayana Yastremska battled for half the season against a provisional suspension (announced in January '21) after a failed test last November. Finally, in *June*, the ITF ruled that the Ukrainian "bore no fault or negligence" for the positive test result, and announced that her provisional suspension would be immediately lifted and that she would serve no period of ineligibility and resume competition. She played her first match of the season in July.

(BTW, as noted in the past, this "provisional suspension" deal that punishes players who are later judged to be "at no fault" after having already been judged in the court of public opinion and prevented from playing for months on end is really absurd.) =============================================== Carla Suarez Navarro takes the court at the Tokyo Olympics
...the cancer survivor made it back to the court, and even posted a 1st Round win over Ons Jabeur in Tokyo before falling in three sets to Karolina Pliskova a round later. CSN played her final matches at the Billie Jean King Cup finals event in Prague in November. =============================================== Anett Kontaveit: despite the mostly underachieving arc (no title since '17, and just one major QF) of her career, she reaches the Round of 16 at Wimbledon to join the list of active players to have reached the 4th Round at all four majors. Kontaveit finally played in her first career slam QF at last year's Australian Open. She reaches her seventh career tour final in '21, but falls to 1-6.
...Kontaveit didn't reach the Round of 16 at any slam, but still had a career year. She blazed a trail through the final months of the season, reaching five finals between August-November, winning four titles. climbing into the Top 10 and reaching the WTAF final. =============================================== Ons Jabeur: finally wins her maiden tour singles title en route to a Top 20 ranking and two more slam QF results to go along with the one she had last season in Melbourne
...Jabeur claimed her maiden tour title in Birmingham (one of three '21 finals), reached the Wimbledon QF and finished the season in the Top 10. =============================================== Maria Sakkari: reaches her first career slam QF, wins her second and biggest career title (500+) and plays in a MX medal match in Tokyo.
...the Greek reached a pair of slam SF in Paris and New York, reached the Ostrava!!! 500 final, the WTAF SF and finished at #6. ===============================================

=OVER/UNDER=
8 = Kim Clijsters match wins (UNDER)...0 (UNDER)
10 = Venus Williams match wins (OVER)...3 (UNDER)
3 = Hsieh/Strycova WD titles (OVER)...0 (UNDER) - Strycova ret.
2 = injury-related event w/d by Andreescu (OVER)...2 (PUSH) Miami F ret./Strasbourg QF w/o
2 = S.Williams slam semis (UNDER)...1 (UNDER)
Start of summer HC season = Pliskova/Bajin pairing (UNDER)...(OVER) Bajin lasted the whole season
=============================================== Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova wins career title #13, making her the only player in tour history with so many WTA titles but w/o a slam SF result. The only other player to previously hold the distinction was Elina Svitolina, until she reached her first slam SF in 2019.
...Pavlyuchenkova's "career year" didn't actually include a title, but she reached the RG singles final and matched her career-high for slam MD wins in a season (11-4, matching her 2011 record). She also won a Gold in MX doubles in Tokyo, helped Russia to the BJK Cup title and finished at a career-best #11. =============================================== Mayar Sherif becomes the first Egyptian woman to record a slam MD victory, as well as the first to reach at least the semifinals in a tour-level singles event.

Renata Zarazua becomes the first woman from Mexico to win a WTA singles title.
...Sherif got her historic maiden slam MD win in Melbourne in February, then reached the Cluj-Napoca 250 final in August (coming up short vs. Andrea Petkovic). Zarazua didn't compete in a *fully* tour-level final, but reached the WTA 125 final in Concord in August, falling to Magdalena Frech. =============================================== And, of course...

After finally hitting on that traditional Blowout "a woman representing Mexico will play a main draw slam singles match" prediction in 2020, I'm not abandoning the notion. Instead, I'm doubling down.

TWO women representing Mexico will appear in the *same* slam draw in 2021, which will be an Open era first for a major. One will reach the 3rd Round, which hasn't happened for a player from Mexico since 1995 (Angelica Gavaldon).
...it didn't happen in 2021, but it took a few years for the original traditional pick to become a reality, too. This.Is.Not.Over. ===============================================

via GIPHY

All for now.