Wednesday, May 29, 2024

RG.4- Iga: Escape from Alcatraz

What just happened? No, seriously, how *did* that happen?




If the island prison of Alcatraz off the coast of San Francisco was supposed to be nearly "impossible" to escape, well, then I'll wager a bet that officials there never saw anything like what Iga Swiatek did against Naomi Osaka in Paris today.

Oh, sure. Players have recovered from even deeper holes in matches before, even at this Roland Garros. But the world #1 had virtually no right -- and seemingly no legitimate path -- to victory at one point in her 2nd Round match-up with fellow four-time slam champ and former #1 Osaka. And yet she did. Osaka bears a large amount of the responsibility for that result, but one would be right to wonder if the Tennis Gods simply had a sudden change of plans and decided that Swiatek's quest for a Paris three-peat wasn't "boring" -- it just needed a little injection of much-needed drama.

The opening set today could have gone either way, and if Osaka had managed to sneak off with it the odds are that she'd still be alive to play another day. Osaka came into Wednesday with a plan, one helped along by the closed Chatrier roof changing the literal landscape of the playing field, and for the most part she did just what she had to do. It was simple, really: hit big, hit hard, and hit deep. Osaka is one of a few women on tour (see Sabalenka, Rybakina, Keys and Ostapenko) whose power can take the racket out of an oppontent's unwilling hand if they can only complete their own solo mission by not wavering from said plan.

After falling behind early, Osaka did just that and never really let up. And yet.

The world #1 won a hitting battle with the comeback-minded current #134 in the 1st. Swiatek grabbed an early break edge, stringing together 12 straight points in a stretch, and yet still saw Osaka come back for more. With Swiatek serving up 40/love, Osaka reeled off five straight points behind her big groundstrokes to put the set back on serve at 4-all.

Saving a BP, Osaka held for 5-4, then had a SP on Swiatek's serve a game later. Iga saved it, and soon after held to force a TB, running a point streak to eight as she went up 4-0 en route to a 7-1 win to take the lead in the match.

Ah, but it was then that Osaka turned up the heat, and nearly cooked Swiatak on a spit for all the tennis world to see. Again.

It seemed as if yet another result was about to happen that was anything but an anecdotal occasion (this sort of match wasn't happening in a vaccuum, as we've seen this match or versions of it countless times by now), and was instead another example in a long-running string of matches lost by an albeit amazingly accomplished #1 when faced with a player who hits the ball hard and deep, cutting down her time to react and refusing to back down, and Swiatek having no real answer for it. Make no mistake, this Backspinner was sharpening the knives to stick into the dolls in the likeness of Tomasz Wiktorowski, Daria Abramowicz, Swiatek and maybe even a few "innocent bystanders." Again.

And yet.



Through the majority of the 2nd and 3rd sets, Osaka commanded the court and seemed intent on cancelling the Iga-bration scheduled for the next week and a half in Paris. She broke to open the 2nd set, then went up a double break. 4-0. 6-1, to knot the match.

In the 3rd, Swiatek popped up with chances, but Osaka immediately swatted them down, saving 3 BP in game 1, then rallying from 40/15 down to break the Pole a game later. Down love/40 in game 3, Osaka saved 5 BP and held to lead 3-0. At 4-1, she held a point for a 5-1 lead before Swiatek held on her fourth GP to -- seemingly -- save at least bit of face and avoid a delivery of any more "baked goods" on *her* doorstep.

Osaka held for 5-2, and Iga's RG three-peat epitaph was being written in nearly as many languages as Kristina Mladenovic can boast of speaking. Among the things set to be talked about in the aftermath, aside from the very psychology of the casting of "big favorites" in sporting events, was Swiatek becoming just the fifth #1 seed to exit before the 3rd Round at RG in the Open era (and just the sixth since the event opened itself to non-French competitors in 1925), and doing so on the heels of her Australian Open 3rd Round loss in January being the earliest there by a #1 since 1979. Also, Osaka was about to record her third career #1 win -- vs. a third different #1, after Halep and Barty -- and first-ever Top 10 victory on clay.

But, you know, Osaka still had to finish the match.

She served for the win up 5-3, and led 30/15, but the netting of a short ball seemed to break her spell on the proceedings. Another unforced error down the line gave Swiatek a BP. Osaka wiped away the advantage with two winners to reach MP, but any celebartion was thwarted by another error. A backhand error gave Swiatek still another BP chance, her 10th of the set (she was 0-for-9). Osaka pushed a short ball long and things were suddenly back on serve.



With the match win miraculously -- somehow -- back in play, Swiatek served up 40/15, holding for 5-5 after Osaka had fired off consecutive winners to get to deuce. An Osaka forehand error put her BP down in game 11, but she hit her way out of trouble with a crosscourt forehand winner and ace, only to ultimately turn the game over to Iga with a double-fault on Swiatek's third BP of the game. Swiatek then stepped up to serve FOR THE WIN at 6-5.

Whaaaaaat??? How??? I thought she was just...

By now, Swiatek was back in her Iga clothes again (looking more "G.O.A.T." than goat). She served out the win at 15, with the concluding rally coming to an end with -- naturally -- a final Osaka error (wide backhand) as Swiatek won 7-6(1)/1-6/7-5 in a remarkable 2:57, winning her second match on clay this spring (Madrid final vs. Sabalenka) after having been MP down.



While Osaka's late errors on this day came at all the worst times, it's impossible not to be impressed thus far with Osaka's comeback. She's far ahead of schedule for a legit summer hard court run starting in a few weeks. Even better, she's kept to her word about buckling down and improving on clay (she said the same about grass... we'll have to wait and see if she keeps *that* up), and the want-it factor seen today on her face was very much slam-worthy. #5 might not be far off.

As Osaka exits, Swiatek plays on for her own fifth major title. Other potential Parisian pitfalls await, but it could be that this will be as close as *anyone* will get to derailing the Iga Train.

If so, again... how did that just happen?




=DAY 4 NOTES=
...before the probable drama and improbable conclusion of Swiatek/Osaka, a ghost from 2020 floated around under the closed roof on Chatrier and decided to stick around for a while.



A lot has happened since 2020 in women's tennis. That year is rightly mostly remembered in the sport as the season in which a worldwide pandemic decimated and rearranged the schedule, leading Wimbledon to be cancelled, tournaments to be played before empty stands, and Roland Garros postponed for four months. It was then in Paris that Swiatek rose up from the masses in the fall version of the event to claim her maiden major title, at #54 the lowest-ranked woman to ever win the title.

But it was Sofia Kenin who was the WTA Player of the Year that season.

Kenin won the pre-Covid Australian Open title at the beginning of 2020, and maybe more impressively starred yet again after the Restart and faced off with Swiatek in the RG final at the end of it. The Bannerette finished the season at #4, winning "The Kenin Way," a blend of nothing particularly *spectacular* but fueled by consistent problem-solving and a constant movement forward toward the match's end. Kenin rarely missed and more often than not came out on top. That season, Kenin showed everyone what her tennis "ceiling" looked like... but while her RG final opponent has spent the intervening years building a Hall of Fame-worthy mountain of accomplishments, for Kenin most everything since then has been a struggle as she's dealt with the resulting pressure of that success, various physical issues (injuries, appendicitis), a temporary separating from her father/coach and then the long, rocky road back from a steep drop in the rankings.

Kenin had started to climb the WTA ladder the season *before* her slam win, rising into the Top 15 while winning three titles in '19, and she was as high as #4 in 2020. After holding onto a top standing throughout '21 due to the pandemic rankings freeze (when she went just 11-10, after going 49-23 in '19 and 24-9 in '20), the floor dropped out from beneath Kenin's feet when the artificial net was removed. She ended 2022 at #235.

Kenin built back through the '23 campaign, lifting her ranking into the Top 50 late in the season. Last fall, she looked primed for a comeback, reaching the San Diego final and Guadalajara semis in back-to-back weeks, getting wins over Ostapenko, Fernandez, Kalinina, Kudermetova, Navarro and Potapova. She ended the '23 season at #33, but the expected bump into '24 didn't happen as she got off to a 1-10 start. Her 1st Round exit in Madrid was her ninth straight defeat.

Still, the clay season has ultimately proven to be something of a life preserver that Kenin has grabbed onto. She ended her losing streak in a 125 after rallying from 6-2/3-1 back (vs. Irene Burillo Escorihuela, who'd later qualify for RG), and nearly clipped Ashlyn Krueger after falling down 6-3/5-3 and 0-3 in the 3rd set. In Rome, it was Kenin's fire that seem to give her a spark, as she battled back (verbally and between the lines) against the tournament officials and the Italian fans after being forced to play through rainy conditions, defeating Lucia Bronzetti for her first tour-level MD win since Hobart on January 9, then followed up by taking out Ons Jabeur to claim her first Top 10 victory since Wimbledon (vs. Gauff in the "last straw" match that pushed along Coco's coaching change and Ultimate Summer run).

Kenin came into Paris on a slight uptick, going 3-3 in her last six, and after immediately falling behind Laura Siegemund 5-1 in the opening set in the 1st Round rolled out of a rain delay while down a set to take the 2nd/3rd at 6-2 each.

With the rain not playing a part today inside Chatrier, the FFT and Parisian fans were safe from Kenin's ire. But #21 Caroline Garcia, France's last best chance for a home-grown woman in the second week (save some space for former Hordette Varvara Gracheva), was not. Kenin soundly defeated Garcia, grounding her 6-3/6-3 to reach the 3rd Round at RG for the fourth time, but the first time since 2021 (after missing '22 with injury and falling in qualifying last year).



Once again, Kenin has life in Paris.

Though her connection to the event went away with most everything else in Kenin's tennis standing the last few years, Roland Garros has been her very best major. A 76.5% win percentage (13-4) is her best at all slam events, and the other three tournaments have seemingly only contributed to Kenin's troubles: she's gone 1-4 at the AO since winning the crown, and 1-2 in New York since a '20 Round of 16. A 3rd Round came her way at last year's Wimbledon, but she'd never previously been past the 2nd.

Kenin is a win away from a first slam second week in three years, looking ahead to a face-off with the winner of the postponed Ostapenko/Tauson 2nd Rounder from today.



...after rain had suspended matches early in the day on the outside courts (including three women's 2nd Rounders), play was exclusive to the closed-roof confines of Chatrier and Lenglen the rest of the day.



#8 Ons Jabeur outlasted Camila Osorio in three sets to improve to 6-4 on clay this season (5-2 in her last 7), while #3 Coco Gauff took out qualifier Tamara Zidansek (a former RG semifinalist) 3 & 4. Gauff is now 17-4 in Paris for her career.







...ONE OF THOSE DAYS... ON DAY 4:








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*LONG WTA (MD only) WINNING STREAKS - 2024*
15 - Danielle Collins (March-April; ended by Sabalenka)
14 - IGA SWIATEK (April-active) *
10 - Coco Gauff (January; ended by Sabalenka)
--
UNDEFEATED NOTE: Pliskova (9 WTA MD, walkover loss, then 2 more)

*RECENT RG "ZOMBIE QUEENS OF PARIS"*
[2015]
Elina Svitolina, UKR (down 6-1/3-0, 4-1 in 3rd set in 2r; wins 9-7)
[2016]
Tsvetana Pironkova, BUL (down 6-2/3-0 vs. A-Rad 4r; wins 1st 10 games two days later)
[2017]
Kristina Mladenovic, FRA (1st Rd.: down 3-0 in 3rd to Brady, wins 9-7; 3rd Rd. - down 5-2 in 3rd, wins 8-6 vs. Rogers; to first RG QF)
[2018]
Yulia Putintseva, KAZ (3rd Rd.: down 6-1/4-1 & 2 MP, 3-0 in 3rd, vs. Wang Qiang; to second career slam QF)
[2019]
Anna Blinkova, RUS (Q2: trailed 6-3/3-1 vs. Kalinina; Q3: trailed Glushko 3-0 in 3rd; 1st Rd.: trailed Gaspayarn 4-0 in 3rd; 2nd Rd.: trailed Garcia 3-0 in 3rd)
[2020]
Kiki Bertens, NED (2nd Rd.: injured; Errani up break 5 times in 3rd, served for match 3 times, 1 MP at 6-5; collapses and wheeled off court after 9-7 win)
[2021 Early-Round]
Katerina Siniakova, CZE (2nd Rd.: down 5-1 in 3rd vs. V.Kudermetova, saved 2 MP)
[2021 Mid/Late-Round]
Barbora Krejcikova, CZE (SF: saved MP in 3rd vs. Sakkari)
[2022]
Sloane Stephens, USA (lost to #306 Nefisa Berberovic pre-RG; 1r: set and 4-4, sitter for love/30 vs. Niemeier; 2r: Cirstea led 6-3/2-0, Stephens 12 con. games; 4r: Teichmann 2-0, Stephens 12 con. games)
[2023]
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS (2nd Rd.: down 5-2 3rd vs. Samsonova; 4th Rd.: down set and 3-1, 7 BP for 4-1 vs. Mertens)
[2024]
Iga Swiatek, POL (2nd Rd.: down 4-1 -- pt. for 5-1 -- and 5-2 vs. Osaka in 3rd; Osaka MP at 5-3)




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TOP QUALIFIER: Jule Niemeier/GER
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2: Raluca Serban/CYP def. Dominika Salkova/CZE 3-6/6-4/7-6(13-11) - both served for win in 3rd, w/ Salkova 2 MP, then third in TB; Serban wins 24-point MTB
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Donna Vekic/CRO (def. Tsurenko/UKR ret.)
FIRST SEED OUT: #29 Veronika Kudermetova/RUS (1r: Bouzkova/CZE)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Moyuka Uchijima/JPN (2nd MD)
UPSET QUEENS: x
REVELATION LADIES: x
NATION OF POOR SOULS: Germany (1-5 1st Rd.)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: 1r wins: Danilovic/SRB, Errani/ITA, Uchijima/JPN, Volynets/USA, Zidansek/SLO
LUCKY LOSER WINS: 1r wins: Baptiste/USA, Fett/CRO
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Chloe Paquet/FRA (in 2nd Rd.)
PROTECTED RANKING WINS: 1r wins: Andreescu/CAN, Anisimova/USA, Begu/ROU, Osaka/JPN
LAST PASTRY STANDING: 1r wins: Garcia, Gracheva, Paquet, Parry
Ms./Mademoiselle OPPORTUNITY: x
IT "TBD": x
COMEBACK PLAYER: x
CRASH & BURN: Nominee: #6 Sakkari (lost 1st Rd. 4 of 5 slams)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF PARIS: Iga Swiatek/POL (2nd Rd.: down 4-1 -- pt. for 5-1 -- and 5-2 vs. Osaka in 3rd; Osaka MP at 5-3)
DOUBLES STAR: x
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): x
Mademoiselle/Madame OF THE EVENING: x
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x
Légion de Lenglen: Nominee: Cornet farewell tournament
Coupe LA PETIT TAUREAU: Nominee: Iga attempt at first three-peat since Henin in 2007






All for Day 4. More tomorrow.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 7:24 PM 

4 Comments:

Blogger Diane said...

Never thought I'd see Iga listed as the Zombie Queen, but hey--she's going for ALL the titles!

Wed May 29, 09:20:00 PM EDT  
Blogger khan35 said...

Was it a match of the year or choke of the year? I think a bit of both.

Indoor condition benefits big hard hitters and closed roof certainly helped Osaka. And yet she couldn't get the job done.

Now that the king is gone, the new queen has arrived.

Thu May 30, 07:14:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

D-
She could get the LPT award (for matching Henin's three-peat), too. ;)


K-
Yeah, I saw a comment on one of the major account tweets about the result, saying something about "never doubt Iga on clay." Ummm, it didn't *really* have much to do with that. As it was for the rest of the 2nd/3rd sets, it was all (good or bad) on Osaka's racket.

It does show that players seemingly fated to lose after falling way back in the 3rd (or 2nd) shouldn't ever just "throw in the towel." Those couple of late holds felt just obligatory and scoreboard-sprucing in the moment, but they ended up being enough to tip the scales when Osaka started missing shots.

Thu May 30, 12:14:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

P.S. - I wasn't kidding when I said the Iga epitaph was being written, and that I was preparing knives (or pins, I guess) for a collection of dolls. I still have the notes to prove it! :)

Thu May 30, 12:31:00 PM EDT  

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