Sunday, July 07, 2024

W.7- Empire of the Sun


Talk about stealing the spotlight... say hello to Lulu Sun.




A day after Judy Murray put her Twitter foot in her mouth with her "yes, astonishing" comment after Emma Raducanu withdrew from MX doubles with Andy Murray, the 21-year old British wild card hit the court for her far more important Round of 16 match vs. #123-ranked New Zealander Sun.

World Traveler Sun -- born in NZL to CRO/CHN parents, lived in CHN and then SUI, played U.S. college tennis in Texas (w/ Peyton Stearns as a teammate), represented SUI until assuming the NZL designation this spring (she'll be in Paris for the Olympics), while splitting time during the year between SVK and Florida (whew!) -- is almost in a similar position that Raducanu was when she won the '21 U.S. Open (minus the previous Wimbledon 4r run, that is). Like Raducanu three seasons ago, the 23-year old Sun is in just her second slam MD, as a qualifier, and has played into the second week of a major.

But unlike Raducanu, who never lost a set while winning ten Q/MD matches in New York, Sun came into the day having been taken to three sets twice last week (by #8 Zheng Qinwen, against whom Sun got her first Top 10 win, as well as fellow qualifier Yuliia Starodubtseva) and proving her mettle in each battle. Back in qualifying, Sun saved a MP in the second round vs. Czech Gabriela Knutson (at 6-5 in the 3rd, after having lost a 5-1 lead... she finally won a 10-6 MTB).

Even before this Wimbledon, 2024 had been a significant year for Sun. She made her slam MD debut (as a qualifier) in Melbourne, won her biggest career title ($100K this spring), cracked the Top 150, and played in her first BJK Cup action for NZL after first representing the nation in April. But what she did on Sunday, in her Centre Court debut vs. a British opponent, is on an entirely different level.

Not that anyone would have noticed by watching Sun play, for it appeared for all to see that this sort of thing is quite routine for her.

It was Sun who broke out of the gate the quickest, taking a two-break lead at 3-0 and storming to a 6-2 1st set win. Holding easily, while pushing Raducanu on the Brit's service games, Sun was mostly in control while freely hitting big and racking up winners, forcing Raducanu to adjust her game plan to go for more and look for an opening should the Kiwi stumble. Raducanu saved break points and held for 4-3, but continued to dance on the proverbial ledge through the end of the set.

On serve at 6-5, Raducanu saw such an opportunity on Sun's serve, going for a big forehand down the line from a position that would leave her vulnerable should the Kiwi reach the ball. She didn't, as Raducanu got the winner to reach BP. She converted and knotted the match.

In the opening game of the 3rd, Raducanu's left foot skidded across the grass behind the baseline, slipping out from under her and hyperextending her knee. She sat up on the ground for a while, then was treated by a trainer before going on. She lost her opening serve game, though.

Sun played with the lead throughout the set, and never blinked as the pressue (should have) mounted. Down 15/30 at 3-2, she got the hold. A game later, Sun fired a lefty forehand winner just long on BP, but then saved a pair of GP with winners, and saw Raducanu DF on BP #2 to give the New Zealander a 5-2 edge. With Raducanu looking for a lifeline, but with her opponent operating with a bit more rope with a double-break lead, the Brit's chances for an eleventh hour turnaround dwindled to almost nil. A wide Sun backhand offered up a BP chance, but Sun pounded a shot from the baseline off a reaching Raducanu's racket.

Sun's crosscourt winner to reach MP was accompanied by a clenched fist and slight yelp, but Sun still had one final test to pass. Facing a second BP soon after not converting her own MP, Sun saved it with an off-balance forehand winner after which she stumbled in the mid-court. And she just kept firing. A crosscourt winner (#52 on the day) gave Sun her second MP, and a long Raducanu return ended it. Sun's 6-2/5-7/6-2 victory sends her into the QF in just her second slam MD appearance.



Sun is the first New Zealander to play so deeply into a major since Belinda Cordwell's AO semifinal run in 1989. Those are the only two such instances in the Open era (only Cordwell's additional '88 AO 4th Round stood alongside those two, as well). She's giving 2023 U.S. Open WD champ Erin Routliffe a run for her money as the darling of the New Zealand tennis establishment's eye. In fact, Erin might *already* be #2 when dawn breaks on Monday.

Such a result in a major by a qualfier, on the other hand, is now *far* more common a feat. Sun is not only the fourth qualifier to reach this stage already this decade (after 2020 saw Nadia Podoroska' SF at RG, then Raducanu's '21 title at the U.S. Open), but she's the second *this season* (w/ Dayana Yastremska's AO semi in January). Sun is the first to reach the final eight at SW19 since Kaia Kanepi in 2010.

While Raducanu's resurgent story ends for this slam, her best since her New York win three seasons ago, if she can stay healthy (which is no sure thing) we'll surely see her here (or elsewhere at a similar stage) again. She's still two years *younger* than Sun.

And who's to say that Sun is anywhere near finished at this Wimbledon? Raducanu proved three years ago what can be done.

And it's no longer a surprise if it's been done before.










=DAY 7 NOTES=
...well, with Madison Keys on the big stage, it's always something.



In this case, a Round of 16 match in which the #12 seed faced off with #7-seeded RG finalist Jasmine Paolini and engaged in a series of wild swings of momentum that produced an engaging battle that, ultimately, sputtered to what was a "no-ending" ending.

Keys came into the match having held 26 of 28 times in the event, only to then drop serve on her first two opportunities vs. the Italian. Paolini, opportunitistic and consistently moving forward in the court, led 4-0 and took the opener 6-3.

Keys ran out to a 5-1, 40/15 lead in the 2nd, and then saw things become increasingly complicated. After failing to convert either SP, she dropped serve once, then twice, while serving for a 3rd set. At 5-5, she saved a BP (w/ an ace) and avoided a third straight break, holding on her fourth GP. Things went to a TB, where Keys reached SP again at 6-5, only to commit an error on her forehand side. But a rare loose Paolini error gave Keys another chance, and she put the breaker away 8-6.

Finally, Paolini's energetic and seemingly heaven-sent '24 slam run seemed set to come to an end in London. Keys got an early break lead, and then another to go up 5-2. But the Italian didn't just fold up shop, and was soon rewarded for the effort. The Tennis Gods are sometimes like that, you know? You work *with* them (as the world #7 or, well, the world #1 on occasion, too) even when you don't *have* to, and they'll throw you an unexpected treat once in a while.

After failing to serve out the match in the game, Keys' fate was given an additional injury to insult when she appeared to get hurt on the final point of the game. It was quickly apparent that it was serious, and that she could barely move around the court. Paolini held for 5-4, and out came the trainer. Keys would return to play with her left thigh/groin area taped, but with her limp and attempting to play through teary eyes what was coming was fairly clear. Paolini, meanwhile, could show no mercy. She handed Keys a drop shot at the close of one point, and Keys didn't even make a step toward it. The point put Keys BP down, and it was just a matter of time. She double-faulted a point later to make it 5-5.

Keys waited two points to make the decision final. A Paolini ace made the game 11 score 15/15, officially *tied* on the scoreboard, and almost before Paolini's ball hit the tarp on the back wall Keys was heading to the net. Paolini advanced to her second straight slam QF with Keys' retirement, improving to 13-2 in majors in '24 (until a few weeks ago hadn't she won a tour-level MD grass match -- but she's now 6-1 this year), while Keys' star-crossed career on the sport's biggest stages added another ill-fated chapter.



Paolini's day provided yet another example of how simply moving forward can sometimes be a winning formula. Fate can change on one swing, as it did for Keys today. Some top players, no matter their station, operate from a pessimistic POV as soon as they step one foot on grass courts every summer, kicking off a self-fulfilling prophacy for a lack of success. Paolini doesn't seem to have a pessimistic bone in her body, and now she's got another match to play in two days.

And I guess that's the Tennis Lesson for Day 7, eh?

...Donna Vekic and Paula Badosa tried and tried -- and tried -- to play their 4th Round match today. But the weather made it *really* difficult.

Vekic jumped out early, taking a 3-1 lead, but was unable to put the 1st set away before rain stopped play at 5-2. When the players returned, the Croat won it 6-2. Then they played out a similar scenario in the 2nd, with Badosa leading 4-1, but seeing rain interrupt the flow of things at 5-1. Later, Badosa won the 2nd at 6-1.

In the 3rd, Vekic got a tough hold for 4-3, but before the players could even reach the changeover area the chaos of the tarps being pulled out over the court was on again with yet another rain delay. Vekic could only laugh at the craziness of it all.

When play resumed for the final time, Vekic finally prevailed, winning 6-2/1-6/6-4 to reach her first QF at SW19, joining her final eight runs at two other majors ('19 U.S. and '23 AO).



Vekic will face Lulu Sun in the QF, with the winner becoming a maiden slam semifinalist.

...#2 Coco Gauff and Wimbledon are clearly inextricably tied, but that doesn't mean that it's her best major tournament. For Emma Navarro, though... well, maybe it is.

Gauff made her big stage debut at SW19 at age 15 in 2019, and quickly became a star with a 1st Round upset of Venus Williams en route to the 4th Round. It was a career, dream and brand-making moment, but the AELTC is also where she's run into a ditch. A year ago, her 1st Round loss to Sofia Kenin provided the "last straw" impetus for a coaching change that led into the Summer of Coco and a U.S. Open title run. But she came back to London still having never reached the QF stage at the event, the only slam where she hadn't, as Wimbledon is possibly her *least* likely winnable major for as long as her long-windup forehand -- w/ the quick surface and less time to prepare for shots -- remains an attackable and reliable weakness in her game.

Throw in #19 Navarro's flat shotmaking and unbending demeanor and we get what we got today in the all-Bannerette Round of 16 encounter, a match-up highlighted by Navarro's rock-steady consistency that eventually broke down not only Gauff's game but her emotional mindset, as well.



Navarro, an NCAA champ at Virginia in 2021, came into the year set to stun everybody by how highly she was ranked (if no one heard "how'd Navarro get ranked *that* high?" they weren't listening), the 23-year old proceded to win her maiden tour title in Week 2 in Hobart, reached the Indian Wells QF, cracked the Top 20 in March, notched a huge upset over #2 Aryna Sabalenka (I.W.), and advanced to the Round of 16 at RG. Heading into Wimbledon, Navarro reached the grasscourt Bad Homburg semis for the second straight year.

At SW19, she dominated Naomi Osaka in the 2nd Round, then got some revenge on her Bad Homburg conqueror (Diana Shnaider) to set up her match with Gauff.

Navarro constantly had the answer vs. Coco, stumping her from pillar to post. She broke the world #2 to win the 1st set 6-4, putting it away with a crouch return of a Gauff serve to the body, then a forehand passing shot down the line. Navarro took a 3-1 lead in the 2nd, and remained The Rock (not Dwayne Johnson, but maybe more like Prudential, San Francisco's Alcatraz or maybe Slippery Rock football) throughout while a frustrated Gauff went a bit off the rails, committing way too many errors and engaging in increasingly manic exchanges with Brad Gilbert in the players box that never really seemed to bear any fruit.



Serving for the match, Navarro put away her third MP to win 6-4/6-3 to reach her maiden slam QF.

Along with Danielle Collins, she's now one of *two* former University of Virginia NCAA singles champs still alive in the draw.




Meanwhile, Gauff leaves still more unfinished business at SW19, but will back for another try. Next up: Paris, then the North American hard courts and New York to defend her Open crown.

It'll be interesting to see if her relationship with Wimbledon hues anywhere close to that of Maria Sharapova. Sharapova is probably more closely identified with Wimbledon than any other major, entirely because of her 2004 title run as a 17-year old. So much of that moment is iconic: Serena, the wonky cell phone reception, and the starburst that came immediately afterward. But, in the end, Wimbledon pretty well turned out to be her *worst* slam (especially after shoulder surgery, as the whole nature of her serve-centric game that won at SW19 was altered forever... and led to her becoming a multiple RG title winner) in a run that included a Career Slam, even if her time there still ranks #1 in the memories of most.

...in ITF action, at least one Pole had a good week, as 22-year old Maja Chwalinska won the $75K Montpellier title with a 6-3/6-2 victory over Oksana Selekmeteva. It's her biggest career title.

Not much to see on this MP, but I include it just because I like the look of the court...



Germany's Ella Seidel, 19, won the $35K Stuttgart final over Cristina Dinu, while 20-year old Argentina Solana Sierra won in $35K Getxo (ESP).







*WOMEN'S SINGLES ROUND OF 16*
Yulia Putintseva/KAZ vs. #13 Alona Ostapenko/LAT
#11 Danielle Collins/USA vs. #31 Barbora Krejcikova/CZE
#4 Elena Rybakina/KAZ vs. #17 Anna Kalinskaya/RUS
#21 Elina Svitolina/UKR vs. Wang Xinyu/CHN
(Q) Lulu Sun/NZL def. (WC) Emma Raducanu/GBR
Donna Vekic/CRO def. (PR) Paula Badosa/ESP
#7 Jasmine Paolini/ITA def. #12 Madison Keys/USA
#19 Emma Navarro/USA def. #2 Coco Gauff/USA








...Hmmm... ON DAY 7:

After at first locking her Twitter account, then waiting many, many, many hours to respond, I'm not sure Judy Murray really fixed anything with her shifting-blame (to people who reacted to her "astonishing" comment, as well as the AELTC), as there was no indication that she was being sarcastic (at least not in any way that wasn't derogatory toward Raducanu) nor talking about *scheduling* yesterday. Plus, there was *ZERO* reason to even comment there at all unless it was to deliver a low-key, semi-reserved shot.



Everyone should get a mulligan or two over time, but in this case it's hard not to have a "not thick enough!" feeling about her response. All she had to do was come back and say she didn't mean it *that way*, or apologize and note that she wanted to see was a mother who just wanted to see her son play at SW19 again, etc. It would have still been tabloid fodder, but also over. She didn't.

Come now, Murray knows the landcape and surely can't claim ignorance about how her reaction could blow up and cause an unnecessary mess. Misogynistic attacks vs. female tennis players don't need encouragement, and Murray pretty much opened the door and welcomed it all home.




...NEXT LEVEL (something, not sure what)... ON DAY 7:




...THE LAST TIME BELINDA CORDWELL MADE INTERNATIONAL (AND FARMING) NEWS (plus Marina Erakovic, too)... ON DAY 7:











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*BEST OPEN ERA SLAM RESULTS BY QUALIFIERS*
[W]
2021 US Open - Emma Raducanu
[SF]
1978 Australian - Christine Dorey Matison
1999 Wimbledon - Alexandra Stevenson
2020 Roland Garros - Nadia Podoroska
2021 US Open - Emma Raducanu (W)
2024 Australian - Dayana Yastremska
[QF, since 1999]
1999 Roland Garros - Barbara Schwartz
1999 Wimbledon - Jelena Dokic
1999 Wimbledon - Alexandra Stevenson (SF)
2000 Roland Garros - Marta Marrero
2001 Roland Garros - Petra Mandula
2006 Wimbledon - Severine Bremond
2008 Roland Garros - Carla Suarez-Navarro
2010 Wimbledon - Kaia Kanepi
2012 Roland Garros - Yaroslava Shvedova
2016 Australian - Zhang Shuai
2017 US Open - Kaia Kanepi
2020 Roland Garros - Martina Trevisan
2020 Roland Garros - Nadia Podoroska (SF)
2021 US Open - Emma Raducanu (W)
2024 Australian - Dayana Yastremska (SF)
2024 Wimbledon - Lulu Sun

*"FIRST SLAM..." FEATS IN 2020s*
=QF=
2020 AO - Ons Jabeur, TUN (13th slam MD)
2020 AO - Sofia Kenin, USA (12th)
2020 AO - Anett Kontaveit, EST (21st)
2020 US - Jennifer Brady, USA (13th)
2020 RG - Nadia Podoroska, ARG (2nd)
2020 RG - Laura Siegemund, GER (16th)
2020 RG - Iga Swiatek, POL (7th)
2020 RG - Martina Trevisan, ITA (2nd)
2021 AO - Hsieh Su-wei, TPE (38th)
2021 AO - Jessie Pegula, USA (9th)
2021 RG - Paula Badosa, ESP (8th)
2021 RG - Coco Gauff, USA (6th)
2021 RG - Barbora Krejcikova, CZE (5th)
2021 RG - Elena Rybakina, KAZ (7th)
2021 RG - Maria Sakkari, GRE (21st)
2021 RG - Tamara Zidansek, SLO (9th)
2021 WI - Viktorija Golubic, SUI (18th)
2021 WI - Aryna Sabalenka, BLR (15th)
2021 WI - Ajla Tomljanovic, AUS (27th)
2021 US - Leylah Fernandez, CAN (7th)
2021 US - Emma Raducanu, GBR (2nd)
2022 AO - Alize Cornet, FRA (63rd)
2022 RG - Veronika Kudermetova, RUS (13th)
2022 WI - Marie Bouzkova, CZE (14th)
2022 WI - Tatjana Maria, GER (35th)
2022 WI - Jule Niemeier, GER (2nd)
2022 US - none
2023 AO - Magda Linette, POL (30th)
2023 RG - Beatriz Haddad Maia, BRA (12th)
2023 US - Zheng Qinwen, CHN (8th)
2024 AO - Anna Kalinskaya, RUS (14th)
2024 AO - Marta Kostyuk, UKR (16th)
2024 AO - Linda Noskova, CZE (6th)
2024 AO - Dayana Yastremska, UKR (17th)
2024 RG - Mirra Andreeva, RUS (5th)
2024 RG - Jasmine Paolini, ITA (18th)
2024 WI - Emma Navarro, USA (7th)
2024 WI - Lulu Sun, NZL (2nd)

*RECENT WIMBLEDON "IT" WINNERS*
2016 [First WC Champ] Jiske Griffioen, NED
2017 [Next WC Great?] Diede de Groot, NED
2018 [GenPDQ Pole] Iga Swiatek, POL
2019 [Kid] Coco Gauff, USA
2021 [Teen Brit] Emma Raducanu, GBR
2022 [Groundbreakers] Ons Jabeur/TUN and Elena Rybakina/KAZ
2023 [Teen Phenom] Mirra Andreeva, RUS
2024 [Kiwi] Lulu Sun, NZL

*BEST 2024 SLAM RESULTS*
[qualifiers]
AO SF - Dayana Yastremska, UKR
WI...Lulu Sun, NZL (in QF)
AO 4th Rd. - Maria Timofeeva, RUS
RG 4th Rd. - Olga Danilovic, SRB
AO 3rd Rd. - Storm Hunter, AUS
WI 3rd Rd. - Sonay Kartal, GBR
AO 3rd Rd. - Anastasia Zakharova, RUS
[wild cards]
WI 4th Rd. - Emma Raducanu, GBR
RG 3rd Rd. - Chloe Paquet, FRA
WI 3rd Rd. - Caroline Wozniacki, DEN
[protected ranking]
AO 4th Rd. - Amanda Anisimova, USA
WI 4th Rd. - Paula Badosa, ESP
AO 3rd Rd. - Paula Badosa, ESP
RG 3rd Rd. - Bianca Andreescu, CAN
RG 3rd Rd. - Irina-Camelia Begu, ROU
WI 3rd Rd. - Bianca Andreescu, CAN



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TOP QUALIFIER: Katie Volynets/USA
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #14 Dasha Kasatkina/RUS
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): x
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2 -Robin Montgomery/USA def. #10 Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS 7-6(0)/6-7(4)/7-6(10-4) - no breaks in 36 games, only 5 BP face; Montgomery w/ 20 aces; combined for 132 winners (67/65)
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 2nd Rd. - #18 Marta Kostyuk/UKR def. Dasha Saville/AUS 4-6/7-6(2)/6-4 - Saville served for match three times in 2nd set, had a MP; Kostyuk break on BP #8 of game to force TB; Kostyuk wins on MP #5 in 3rd set
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): x
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): x
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Varvara Gracheva/FRA (def. Lesia Tsurenko/UKR)
FIRST SEED OUT: #8 Zheng Qinwen/CHN (1st Rd. to Sun/NZL) (after #22 Alexandrova/RUS, #3 Sabalenka/BLR and #16 Azarenka/BLR withdrew)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Day 1: Erika Andreeva/RUS, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro/ESP, Sonay Kartal/GBR, Robin Montgomery/USA, Yuliia Starodubtseva/UKR, Lulu Sun/NZL, Anca Todoni/ROU
UPSET QUEENS: Spain
REVELATION LADIES: Great Britain
NATION OF POOR SOULS: ROU (1-5 1st Rd.; #29 Cirstea out, Bogdan 2 MP, no Halep
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: Lulu Sun/NZL (in QF)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Emma Raducanu/GBR (4th Rd.)
PROTECTED RANKING: Paula Badosa/ESP (4r), Bianca Andreescu/CAN (3r)
LUCKY LOSER WINNERS: Erika Andreeva/RUS (2nd)
LAST BRIT STANDING: Emma Raducanu (4th Rd.)
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: Nominees: Navarro, Vekic
IT "Kiwi": Lulu Sun/NZL
COMEBACK PLAYER: Paula Badosa/ESP
CRASH & BURN: #6 Marketa Vondrousova/CZE (1st Rd. to Bouzas Maneiro/ESP; first defending champ out 1r since 1994 Graf loss vs. McNeil; second in Open era)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF LONDON: #18 Marta Kostyuk/UKR (2nd Rd.- down 5-2 vs. Saville in 3rd, who served for win three times and held MP; in '24 slams has won from MP down at AO/WI, and 4-0 down in 3rd at RG)
DOUBLES STAR: x
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): Nominees: Collins, Putintseva, Svitolina, (doubles)
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x
SPIRIT OF JANA (NOVOTNA) HONOREE: Nominee: Madison Keys (experiences continued major mayhem)






All for Day 7. More tomorrow.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 6:48 PM 

4 Comments:

Blogger khan35 said...

The remaining whole bottom half of the draw can be selected for Ms. OPPORTUNITY. I mean, anyone from the bottom half of the draw could realistically make it to the final.

Compared to the other slams where Gauff went deep in the 2nd week, she really underperforms at Wimbledon. On grass, players can expose her weak forehand than other surfaces where Gauff has more time to set up her forehand. As long as her forehand remains the same, she will never win Wimbledon title. The interesting fact is that both, Gauff and Swiatek, are individually 11-5 at Wimbledon.

It would be awesome if Lulu Sun can pull off the "RADUCANU".

Mon Jul 08, 04:28:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Nicolas said...

The lack of any consistency in the tour results in less conection with the players, in less audience and so on. It is something to worry about.

Mon Jul 08, 01:26:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

K-

And if Sun DID, it'd really be even *more* unlikely than when Raducanu did it. At least Raducanu had that Wimbledon 4th Round under her belt.


N-

Yeah, it'd probably be *best" if Rybakina wins, because at least she's in the round-robin mix with Swiatek, Sabalenka and (I guess) Gauff when it comes to the "faces of the tour."

The big shocks are great one day/week stories, but the top players winning and facing each other "lifts all boats" a bit better.

Those four *have* won 8 of the 9 majors completed since Barty's retirement, and *have* played each other a whole lot more over the course of the season than the top ranked players did over most of the last decade.

So there *is* that.

(I guess if Osaka jumped in either US/AO it'd be a boost in that area, too.)

Mon Jul 08, 05:55:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

That said, those top players *don't* face each other nearly enough IN THE MAJORS, and that's when everyone is really watching and the *true* rivalries take root. And that's important, too.

Mon Jul 08, 05:57:00 PM EDT  

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