W.11- A Weekend of High Expectations

Well, when two weeks of grand slam action results in singles finals matchups that could one day literally be the titles of chapters in a tennis history book -- "Federer vs. Nadal," "Williams vs. Williams" -- the expectations for what's about to come this weekend are bound to be pretty high.

All right, Roger and Rafa, Venus and Serena... entertain us.

If Thursday's women's semifinals were "foregone conclusions," what were Friday's men's semifinals? Just a little tip-in from "Rhetorical Questions R Us."

Anyway, as expected, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal advanced to their third straight meeting in a Wimbledon final on Day Eleven, making their trilogy only the third to occur in men's grand slam tennis in the Open era -- joining Stefan Edberg & Boris Becker at Wimbledon in 1988-90, and two guys Roger and Rafa are probably familiar with at Roland Garros from 2006-08. With one of the two assured of taking the title, this means that fifteen of the last seventeen slams have been won by one of these two (great, but still not quite as good as Martina-&-Chris' 19-of-20 run a while back).

Once again, Bjorn Borg will be all over the Men's final. If Federer wins, he'll exceed Borg's mark of five straight Wimbledon titles. If Nadal wins, he'll become the first man since Borg in 1980 to sweep Roland Garros and Wimbledon in the same season.

But, of course, the deeper meaning of this final will be the blaring-out-loud "underlying" notion that this match will determine who is the best tennis player on the planet RIGHT NOW. If Nadal takes the title, he won't officially be the #1 player on the computer, but he will be in the hearts and minds of every thinking, breathing being on earth. Defeating Federer on clay or even hard courts is one thing, but doing it on the grass at Centre Court Wimbledon is another. Federer can maintain his position with the victory, but Nadal is breathing down his neck and everyone knows it.

Last year's final went five sets and would have seen the Spaniard take it had he been able to wrestle away one of two tie-break sets from Federer. How much difference has a year made? Federer, what with his early-season illness and resulting lack of fitness, has had a hard time re-establishing himself as the unquestioned #1 in 2008... but here's his chance to at least shut up his doubters for a few more months.

*LONG ATP GRASS WINNING STREAKS*
65...ROGER FEDERER, 2003-CURRENT
41...Bjorn Borg, 1976-81
23...John McEnroe, 1980-82
23...Pete Sampras, 1994-96
23...Pete Sampras, 1998-00

Either way, the result will be a monumentally significant one for men's tennis.

But before the men play on Sunday, Venus and Serena will settle things at this all Williams all the time Wimbledon. In career matchups, Serena leads just 8-7, but is 5-1 in slam finals. Venus hasn't defeated her sister in a slam final since 2001 (their first together), but they haven't met in one since the 2003 Wimbledon, either.

*VENUS vs. SERENA*
[Serena leads 8-7; 1 walkover]
98 Aust.Open 2nd - Venus 7-6,6-1
98 Rome QF - Venus 6-4,6-2
99 Miami F - Venus 6-1,4-6,6-4
99 Grand Slam Cup F - Serena 6-1,3-6,6-4
00 Wimbledon SF - Venus 6-2,7-6
01 Ind.Wells SF - Serena walkover
01 US Open F - Venus 6-2,6-4
02 Miami SF - Serena 6-2,6-2
02 R.Garros F - Serena 7-5,6-3
02 Wimbledon F - Serena 7-6,6-3
02 US Open F - Serena 6-3,6-4
03 Aust.Open F - Serena 7-6,3-6,6-4
03 Wimbledon F - Serena 4-6,6-4,6-2
05 Miami QF - Venus 6-1,7-6
05 US Open 4th - Venus 7-6,6-2
08 Bangalore SF - Serena 6-3,3-6,7-6
08 Wimbledon F - ???

Since then, Venus has come to appreciate the All-England Club more than any other player not named Federer. Sure, she won her first slam title there in 2000, but the one she won in 2005 might turn out to be the championship she cherishes most of all, for it was the light that led her out of a career tunnel that seemed endless, and it re-established her as a potential annual force at this tournament no matter what she'd done on any court on any continent over the previous 50 weeks leading into her first match at SW19. Her back-from-an-early-round-death title run a year ago only further solidified her mental link to this event.

But now Serena will be on the other side of the net.

So far in this tournament, Venus has given her opponents many chances to push her to the limit, but none of them were able to take advantage of those opportunities. If SHE'S given them, Serena will likely seize them -- and Venus will have to do something about it if she wants to win.. Will Venus be able to use her "psychic connection" to Wimbledon to overcome such a situation? Maybe, but she's only beaten her sister once at Wimbledon -- and that was in the semifinal match before she won her first championship.

Venus. Roger. Wimbledon. There's just something RIGHT about the combination.

I'll pick Federer in five (8-6 or something similar in the 3rd... or maybe that's wishful thinking), and Venus in two close sets (with at least one tie-break). But just two great matches would be fine, no matter who wins.

So, come on, people. It's time to entertain the masses.



=DAY 11 NOTES=
Speaking of high expectations, could it be possible that in a few years the Brits will be expecting something at Wimbledon from a British WOMAN?


Laura Robson... finally, a spark of British hope?

Could be. Reports are good on 14-year old Laura Robson, and she is just one win away from claiming the Girls singles title after her semifinal win over Slovak Romana Tabakova. This slam's "Breakout Junior" will face #3-seed Noppawan Lertcheewakarn, who defeated mini-Waffle Tamaryn Hendler to become the first Thai female to reach a junior slam final since Tamarine Tanasugarn was the Wimbledon Girls runner-up in 1995.

In the Boys competition, #1-seeded Bernard Tomic was upset by Fin Henri Kontinen. He'll face #9-seed Grigor Dmitrov of Bulgaria in the final.

...Slingin' Sammy Stosur wrapped up the "Doubles Star" for SW19 by advancing to both the Women's and Mixed Doubles event finals. She and Lisa Raymond, finally back as a strong team after Stosur's illness layoff, knocked out #1-seeded Cara Black/Liezel Huber in the SF on Day Eleven (something of a consolation prize for Raymond, who was left off the American Olympic team, while new citizen Huber will represent the U.S. in the Olympics for the first time in Beijing). Stosur and Bob Bryan (Bryan won RG with Victoria Azarenka last month) will play Katarina Srebotnik and Mike Bryan in the Mixed final, so at least one Williams and one Bryan are assured of taking home championship trophies from this tournament.

...and, finally, there's one little potentially important stat that I purposely neglected to mention earlier concerning tomorrow's Women's final. In the previous fifteen Venus-vs.-Serena matches, the winner of the 1st set has won fourteen times. Unless things really HAVE changed, it's certainly an in-match development to keep an eye on.



*WOMEN'S FINAL*
#6 Serena Williams/USA vs. #7 Venus Williams/USA

*MEN'S FINAL*
#1 Roger Federer/SUI vs. #2 Rafael Nadal/ESP

*WOMEN'S DOUBLES FINAL*
#16 Lisa Raymond/Samantha Stosur (USA/AUS) vs. #11 Serena Williams/Venus Williams (USA/USA)

*MEN'S DOUBLES FINAL*
#8 Jonas Bjorkman/Kevin Ullyett (SWE/ZIM) vs. #2 Daniel Nestor/Nenad Zimonjic (CAN/SRB)

*MIXED DOUBLES FINAL*
#1 Katarina Srebotnik/Mike Bryan (SLO/USA) vs. Samantha Stosur/Bob Bryan (AUS/USA)

*GIRLS FINAL*
Laura Robson/GBR vs. #3 Noppawan Lertcheewakarn/THA

*BOYS FINAL*
Henri Kontinen/FIN vs. #9 Grigor Dmitrov/BUL

*GIRLS DOUBLES SF*
#6 Hercog/Moore (SLO/AUS) vs. Curtis/Rae (GBR/GBR)
Doi/Nara (JPN/JPN) vs. Holland/Peers (AUS/AUS)

*BOYS DOUBLES SF*
#5 Folie/Goffin (BEL/BEL) vs. #3 Reid/Tomic (AUS/AUS)
Hsieh/Yang (TPE/TPE) vs. Basic/Wu (BIH/CHN)




*WIMBLEDON FINALS in 2000's*
[WOMEN]
7...VENUS WILLIAMS (4-2)
4...SERENA WILLIAMS (2-1)
2...Lindsay Davenport (0-2)
2...Justine Henin (0-2)
1...Amelie Mauresmo (1-0)
1...Maria Sharapova (1-0)
1...Marion Bartoli (0-1)
[MEN]
6...ROGER FEDERER (5-0)
3...RAFAEL NADAL (0-2)
2...Andy Roddick (0-2)
2...Patrick Rafter (0-2)
1...Pete Sampras (1-0)
1...Lleyton Hewitt (1-0)
1...Goran Ivanisevic (1-0)
1...David Nalbandian (0-1)
1...Mark Philippoussis (0-1)

*2008 JR. SLAM FINALS*
[GIRLS]
AO - Arantxa Rus (NED) d. Jessica Moore (AUS)
RG - Simona Halep (ROU) d. Elena Bogdan (ROU)
WI - Noppowan Lertcheewakarn (THA) vs. Laura Robson (GBR)
[BOYS]
AO - Bernard Tomic (AUS) d. Yang Tsung-Hua (TPE)
RG - Yang Tsung-Hua (TPE) d. Jerzy Janowicz (POL)
WI - Grigor Dmitrov (BUL) vs. Henri Kontinen (FIN)

*WIMBLEDON JR. FINALS in 2000's*
00 Maria-Emilia Salerni d. Tatiana Perebiynis
01 Angelique Widjaja d. Dinara Safina
02 Vera Dushevina d. Maria Sharapova
03 Kirsten Flipkens d. Anna Chakvetadze
04 Kateryna Bondarenko d. Ana Ivanovic
05 Agnieszka Radwanska d. Tamira Paszek
06 Caroline Wozniacki d. Magdalena Rybarikova
07 Urszula Radwanska d. Madison Brengle
08 NOPPAWAN LERTCHEEWAKARN vs. LAURA ROBSON

*GRAND SLAM FINALS - ACTIVE*
13...VENUS WILLIAMS (6-6)
11...SERENA WILLIAMS (8-2)
7...Lindsay Davenport (3-4)
6...Mary Pierce (2-4)
4...Maria Sharapova (3-1)

*SLAM "DOUBLES STAR" WINNERS*
=2006=
AO - Yan Zi & Zheng Jie, CHN/CHN
RG - Lisa Raymond & Samantha Stosur, USA/AUS
WI - Yan Zi & Zheng Jie, CHN/CHN
US - Martina Navratilova, USA
=2007=
AO - Liezel Huber, RSA
RG - Katarina Srebotnik, SLO
WI - Cara Black, ZIM
US - Nathalie Dechy, FRA
=2008=
AO - Alona & Kateryna Bondarenko, UKR/UKR
RG - Anabel Medina-Garrigues & Virginia Ruano-Pascual, ESP/ESP
WI - Samantha Stosur, AUS

*SLAM "JR. BREAKOUT" WINNERS*
=2007=
AO - Madison Brengle, USA
RG - Mariana Duque-Marino, COL
WI - Urszula Radwanska, POL
US - Kristina Kucova, SVK
=2008=
AO - Jessica Moore, AUS & Arantxa Rus, NED
RG - Simona Halep, ROU & Elena Bogdan, ROU
WI - Laura Robson, GBR




TOP QUALIFIERS: Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez/ESP & Eva Hrdinova/CZE
TOP EARLY ROUND (1r-2r): Serena Williams/USA
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): Zheng Jie/CHN
TOP LATE ROUND (SF-F): xxx
TOP EARLY RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 2nd Rd.- Ivanovic d. Dechy 6-7/7-6/10-8 (down 2 MP)
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): 3rd Rd. - Peer d. Safina 7-5/6-7/8-6 (3:;25)
TOP LATE RD. MATCH (SF-F): xxx
=============================
FIRST SEED OUT: #30 Dominika Cibulkova/SVK (1st Rd.-lost to Zheng)
UPSET QUEENS: The Russians
REVELATION LADIES: The Russians
LAST QUALIFIERS STANDING: Maria Jose Martinez-Sanchez/ESP, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova/RUS & Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova/CZE (all to 3rd Rd.)
IT GIRL: Agnieszka Radwanska/POL
MS. OPPORTUNITY: Zheng Jie/CHN
COMEBACK PLAYER: Tamarine Tanasugarn/THA
CRASH & BURN: Maria Sharapova/RUS (lost 2nd Rd. to Kudryavtseva)
ZOMBIE QUEEN: Nicole Vaidisova, CZE (point from being down 6-3/0-6/0-4 to Stosur in 2nd Rd.)
LAST BRITS STANDING: Anne Keothavong & Elena Baltacha, GBR (both to 2nd Rd.)
DOUBLES STAR Samantha Stosur/AUS
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: Laura Robson/GBR



All for Day 11. More tomorrow.



ON MONDAY: "Odds & Ends Between London and New York," with a 3Q Hard Court Season preview, Ms. Backspin update and Week 28 picks
ALSO NEXT WEEK: Grass Court Awards