Wk.14- Caroline, uh, On My Mind

With every big result Caroline Wozniacki posts, you can see a real, flesh-and-blood champion being built from the ground up.

Kinda, sort of.

A winner during her junior days, the 19-year old Dane has kept up the habit as a pro. She won three titles in 2008, then three more in '09. Her Ponte Vedra Beach title defense this weekend put her on course to match or exceed her previous three-times-a-lady runs in 2010, too. Unlike so many of her young counterparts on tour whose first notion is to simply aim and hit, Wozniacki knows what she's doing out there on the court (sometimes, even before her dad immigrates from the stands for a mini coaching session, too), even while it's still apparent that her game is a work in progress as she manages to continue to climb up the WTA ladder while trying to figure out how to get everything out of her talent.

Wozniacki's matches often have a certain "sameness" to them, and that's a testament to her. Never allowing herself to get too high or too low emotionally, no lead or deficit is ever "unworkable." Bad starts are almost always turned back in her favor, but easy 1st sets don't necesarily mean a quick straight sets victory is a given, either. Wozniacki's pet tactic of extending rallies with superb defense, even while usually eschewing the more dangerous aggression that comes so naturally to other teens who've risen up the rankings as quickly as C-Woz, usually means you're going to get your money's worth as a viewer or fan when it comes to match length. Ultimately, Wozniacki's gameplan means she'll play far longer matches on occasion that she probably should, but it also means she's usually going to win.

Largely because she sets up her opponents to defeat themselves, giving them just enough rope to hang their own chances, Wozniacki is the most consistent performer on tour. A true workhorse, she rarely ever loses to players she shouldn't. Forcing opponents to hit a sixth, seventh or eighth competent shot in a single point quite literally "separates the wheat from the chaff," as the vast majority of the WTA field isn't up to pulling off such a feat on an every-point, every-game, every-set basis when each shot begins to hold such meaning. Wozniacki's tenaciousness and level-headed mindset feast on any of her opponents' lingering doubts, shot-for-shot lack of uniformity/creativity and/or match-closing know-how (see Elena Vesnina and Olga Govortsova this weekend in PVB).

Consistency kills... but is it enough for her take the next step? And for the #2-ranked player in the world and one-time slam finalist, that step can be summed up with just one phrase: "grand slam champion."

Wozniacki's current gameplan works well enough. She's risen up the ranks with steady (and sometimes better) speed. Ponte Vedra Beach was her seventh career title, and her second successful title defense in the last nine months. Last season, she was only player to reach finals on four different surfaces (PVB was her first-ever clay final), and her green clay decider on Sunday ups her surface final total to two already in '10. But when Wozniacki goes up against the more seasoned champions on tour -- the Serena Williamses, Justine Henins and even Belgian Barbies, as last year's U.S. Open final showed -- her opponents have a better understanding of how to play those long, tension-filled points better, and they make a point to turn up their aggression and beat C-Woz to the punch in those long rallies where the teenager finds her comfort zone.

There's no need to totally change her game. Ask Jelena Jankovic, a similar type of defensive stalwart, how that sort of thing works out. But that doesn't mean that she can't learn how to pick her spots better when it comes to being more aggressive in her own right. Again, as JJ showed was possible in Indian Wells. One would like to see her try to do so more often against the players she's supposed to defeat, and hope that the muscle/mental memory will serve her well when she's up against the sport's elite stars, a group in which Wozniacki herself is trying to justify her inclusion. Would it be potentially dangerous to experiment more often? Sure, but the potential dividends would seem to be worth it. Look at Henin, who's trying to alter her game to fit her second career. Sometimes her less-familiar gameplan trips her up, as it's not her natural inclination to move forward, cut shots off and play the role of bull in a china shop. But she wants to win Wimbledon, and she believes that's how she has to do it... so she's willing to take the chance.

If Wozniacki wants to become a grand slam champion, not just a very good player who racks up titles everywhere but in the majors, she might have to take more chances, too. She's already shown a willingness to bend to that reality, visibly trying to take the offensive initiative at times, and the nerve she showed at last year's WTA Championships speaks well for her desire to be all that she can be. As she tries to bring that hybrid aspect to her game, there's no reason to think that her progress won't continue in 2010.

In fact, with Serena's schedule and knee somewhat iffy between now and Roland Garros, Wozniacki might have a shot at the #1 ranking this spring, though you sort of hope it doesn't happen before she can better prove herself worthy of such an honor. We've had enough Jankovic, Ivanovic and Safina-esque moments the last few years to openly hedge against, if not oppose, the elevation of ANY player, even one who SEEMS capable of handling the inherent pressures of such an accomplishment, into such a heightened arena of expectation and nitpicking before she's developed the armor, both on-court and off, to brush it aside and continue to want to get better. Really, other than the Williams Sisters, only Maria Sharapova has emerged in recent years with the fortitude and backbone to make such a situation work (and then her shoulder became the body part that stuck a wrench in the gears of Supernovic progress, so you NEVER know what'll happen).

"Problem" is, it's always hard to tell what Williams will do in Paris. Plus, Henin's game and match consistency might mean she won't automatically reassume her Roland Garros throne this June. The Other Belgian Not Named Yanina or Kirsten and clay courts don't necessarily always mesh, and the remaining potential contenders at the next slam are all either dealing with injuries, downturns in their results or precisely the type of emotional components that set Wozniacki apart because of her ability to NOT be brought down by them. C-Woz might just emerge from the pack in Paris, as she did in New York, and stake a legit claim for one of the four biggest prizes of the season.

But for all the accomplishments in her career, one that Wozniacki has yet to pull off is to win a title on RED clay (she reached two finals in '09). After playing this week on green clay in Charleston, she'll have until late May to attempt to remove that hole in her resume before play begins in Roland Garros. If she can fill it and check it off her career "To Do" list, she might head to the French as a co-favorite in the minds of some.

Maybe even mine.

"Caroline in the City... of Lights?" It could prove to be a story arc that proves triumphant in Paris. But no matter what the computer says, it's too soon to tell or fully believe in that potential reality.

Of course, that could change.

*WEEK 14 CHAMPIONS*

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA USA (Int'l $220K/green clay outdoor)
S: Caroline Wozniacki def. Olga Govortsova 6-2/7-5
D: Mattek-Sands/Yan d. Chuang/Peng

MARBELLA, SPAIN (Int'l $220K/red clay outdoor)
S: Flavia Pennetta def. Carla Suarez-Navarro 6-2/4-6/6-3
D: Errani/Vinci d. Kondratieva/Shvedova


PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Caroline Wozniacki/DEN
...here's where I note some of the players that C-Woz defeated en route to her first Player of the Week crown of 2010... on the anniversary of her first '09 POW acknowledgement after winning Ponte Vedre Beach (the week of the "famed" first-ever Double Headline Backspin). The likes of players named Schnyder, Arvidsson and Pavlyuchenkova were swept aside, while Vesnina (up 4-2 in the 3rd, one year after holding four MP in PVB before losing to C-Woz) and Govortosva (up 4-1 in the 2nd) took a bit more work. There, now that's done. What I really wanted to note here was what has sort of become known as Wozniacki's seemingly natural on-court calmness. This weekend, that notion was proven to NOT be totally natural at all. During a couple bad stretches in the SF and Final, Wozniacki was seen to throw her racket at the ground once, and attack the net with a few aggressive strokes after missing an easy shot. Of course, in C-Woz's case, she got her frustration out of her system, put it in a mental lockbox and went on to win both matches. In a way, it's a realization such as this that makes the world #2's ability to find her way through sometimes-murky match waters all the more impressive. Contrast that with what a player such Victoria Azarenka often does -- let her anger fester until it becomes volcanic, then often go down in flames. It's interesting that both were #1 seeds last week. While Wozniacki defended her PVB title, Azarenka retired in the QF in Marbella. (Yep, I'm going to try to link these two in the ongoing WTA plotline even if it kills me.)
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RISERS: Olga Govortsova/BLR & Carla Suarez-Navarro/ESP
...armed with a serve that has the ability to provide her some very nice future results, Govortsova nonetheless failed to get her first tour title (she's now 0-3 in WTA finals) in Ponte Vedra Beach. She was unable to push the final against Wozniacki to a 3rd set despite being up 4-1 in the 2nd. Still, wins over '09 PVB runner-up Alona Bondarenko and Dominika Cibulkova (who nearly came back ala C-Woz from a big deficit) are enough to make her a player who's progress needs to be watched, assuming she can eliminate her nasty habit of squandering big advantages. CSN, too, is still looking for her first tour singles title (for the record, I'd picked both Suarez-Navarro and Govortsova to become first-time champs in '10 in my preseason predictions -- so while I wholeheartedly endorse both of this week's titlists, I still have to consider Week 14 something of a double near-miss). With wins over Roberta Vinci, Polona Hercog, Tatjana Malek and Maria Jose Martinez-Sanchez, the Spaniard managed to match her result from a year ago this weekend. In 2009, she lost the Marbella final to Jelena Jankovic, and her three-set loss on Sunday to Flavia Pennetta leaves her 0-2 in career tour finals.
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SURPRISES: Beatriz Garcia-Vidagany/ESP & Anna Tatishvili/GEO
...raise your hand if you knew anything about Garcia-Vidagany before last week? (Her name was vaguely familiar to me from winning a few ITF titles last season, but I couldn't help but say "who the crap is 'Garcia'" when I saw that she'd knocked off the Belgian Barbie in the 2nd Round in Marbella last week). I mean, the 21-year old was the #12-ranked SPANIARD on the computer when play began. BGV DID manage to get on the radar a few days earlier, though, when her qualifying run included a nice win over Alicia Molik, but one wonders just how much Last Week's Miami Champion knew about her. Garcia-Vidagany, the world #258, also got a 1st Round win over Kristina Barrois before eventually losing to Sara Errani in the QF, but her big week will surely be brought up again when all the "Upset of the (whatever time period it happens to be)" talk in stirred up the rest of this season. Three or four years ago, Tatishvili was considered a young player to watch. Her progress has been slow, though. But she reached a career-high ranking of #150 in March, and the 20-year old Georgian (as in the former Soviet republic, not the Peach State) has recently had some results that make one want to take notice again. In PV Beach, she qualified with wins over Michelle Larcher de Brito and Michaella Krajicek, then got a main draw victory over Magdalena Rybarikova. Govortsova eventually knocked her out in the 2nd Round.
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COMEBACKS: Elena Vesnina/RUS & Mirjana Lucic/CRO
...a year ago, Vesnina held four match points against Wozniacki in the PVB semifinals, only to lose the match and watch C-Woz take the title. This time around, she led the Dane 4-2 in the SF in PVB, only to lose and watch C-Woz take the title again. Hey, aren't you "John Locke"... or is it Titus Welliver? (And if you get that one, then you know I had to get it in before next month for it to be a relevant reference, and I just did.) The Russian, who reached two finals in '09, retired from a match in Tokyo against Jelena Jankovic last October. Counting that loss, she'd gone just 4-9 in main draw tour matches since. Maybe this PVB result, in which she notched three victories alone, will turn things back in her favor. At least she didn't stomp around the court like a Shakespearean character in need of a soliloquy like she did in PVB last year. That's a start. The REAL comeback star of Week 14, however, was Lucic. You remember her, right? Back in 1997, the Croat was one of now just six players (including names like Austin, Henin and Srebotnik) who became champions in their WTA singles debut, winning at home in Bol, Croatia at barely 15 years old (still in the Top 5 for youngest-ever champs). She won a small ITF event in Croatia, then defended that Bol title a year later. In May '98, she was the #32-ranked player in the world. In 1999, she ended the season in the Top 50 on the strength of her stunning semifinal run at Wimbledon (along with qualifier Alexandra Stevenson, who defeated qualifier Jelena Dokic in the QF in definitively the craziest SW19 ever). Since then, she's been a poster child for what's often wrong with tennis and parenting, but also how a series of bad breaks don't mean that a player need give up (maybe, the soon-to-be-Mrs. Stepanek should realize that). From 2002-09, Lucic's year-end ranking never inched into the Top 200. With one slam main draw win since 2001, Lucic made Dokic's "slide" since her shocking introduction to much of the tennis world seen like a picnic. But, after a few years of bouncing around the ITF challenger circuit with only modest success to spur her on, Lucic came (back) into her own this weekend in the $25K event in Jackson, Mississippi. The now 28-year old, #240-ranked player defeated Jamie Hampton 7-5/6-3 in the final to earn her first singles title of any kind since 1998, and her first ever outside the borders of Croatia.
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VETERANS: Flavia Pennetta/ITA & Renata Voracova/CZE
...a week after winning the Miami doubles title with Gisela Dulko, the 28-year old Pennetta got her recently-flagging singles game back in form in Marbella. With wins over Yaroslava Shvedova, Laura Pous Tio, Simona Halep, Sara Errani and Suarez-Navarro, she upped her career tour singles title total to nine (tying her on the active list with the likes of Nadia Petrova and Anabel Medina-Garrigues). In the $25K challenger in Civitavecchia, Italy, 26-year old Czech Voracova grabbed a title after manuevering her way past Julia Schruff, Zuzana Ondraskova and Anna Floris in the final.
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FRESH FACES: Varvara Lepchenko/USA & Tian Ran/CHN
...the Uzbekistan-born American Lepchenko, 23, entered the PV Beach draw as a Lucky Loser after losing to Bethanie Mattek-Sands in qualifying. But she made the most of her opportunity, defeating Mariana Duque-Marino and Angelique Kerber to reach her first career tour QF. Tian, 16, most recently was mentioned here after the Girls #85 lost in back-to-back junior events to Girls #3 Irina Khromacheva. But with the Russian nowhere to be found in the $10K pro challanger event in Ningbo, China, Tian won her first pro title, defeating countrywoman Zheng Saisai 6-2/6-3 in the final.
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DOWN: Jada's Traditionally Clay Court-Resistant Mom/BEL & Sabine Lisicki/GER
...the Champagne Gifter came into Marbella having not played a match on clay since her last outing before her retirement in Warsaw during the spring of '07. In fact, going into last week, that loss to Julia Vakulenko was her only clay match since she lost the 2006 Roland Garros semifinal to Justine Henin. She got her first clay win in almost four years, but went down in three sets in the 2nd Round to Spain's Beatriz Garcia-Vidagany, the #258th-ranked player in the world. Meanwhile, Lisicki didn't play last week. That's not exactly news, but the announcement that her ankle is still too injured to even allow her to attempt to defend her Charleston title this week is more than a crushing blow to the belief that her battles with her health are anywhere near reaching a conclusion.
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ITF PLAYER: Mona Barthel/GER
...the German, 19, qualified for and won the $50K challenger in Torhout, Belgium. Her list of vanquished foes included Bojana Jovanovski, Kathrin Woerle, Stephanie Dubois, Yulia Fedossova and Rebecca Marino in the final. It's Barthel's second ITF title this season.
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JUNIOR STAR: Krista Hardebeck/USA
...the 15-year old American won the USTA International Spring Championships in Carson, California. After defeated top-seeded Katarena Paliivets of Canada, Hardebeck defeated Sachia Vickery 0-6/6-3/6-2 in the final.
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1. Marb 2nd Rd - Garcia-Vidagany d. The Only Belgian Whose '10 Results are More Rollercoaster-y Than Justine's
...7-5/4-6/6-4. See, I knew the Siren's call to pick you-know-who to win in Marbella was a trap, a blatant should-have-known-better path to destruction (note to self). Seriously, though, as sometimes-rough as Henin's path has been on occasion this season, her countrywoman's has been positively crazy. She's gone from Brisbane champ to Melbourne bust to MSG/Indian Wells choker to Miami champ to being being bounced by the #258 player in the world who was an even more obscure conquerer than her ranking would insist. Brian's Wife showed some service cracks against Henin in Miami, and they showed up again here. She tossed in eight double-faults in the match. As of now, though, she didn't react to this clay loss the same way she did her last -- which was to immediately retire from the sport.
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2. PVB SF - Wozniacki d. Vesnina
...1-6/7-6/6-4. This one, a rematch of last year's PVB SF, was simply "Classically Caroline." At first, she looked out of it in the 1st. In the 2nd, she gradually worked her way into the match, edging out the Russian in the 2nd set by taking the tie-break. Watching this match live on Saturday afternoon, it was at this point that I said that this is the sort of match that usually ends with Wozniacki winning a tight 6-4 set. True to form, she fell behind 4-2 (not as dangerous as those four match points Vesnina had in '09, but still), never let up, allowed Vesnina to make just enough mistakes to lose by making her hit a few extra shots each point, and won the deciding set by a 6-4 score. Oh, if only the Belgians could be so predictable.
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3. PVB Final - Wozniacki d. Govortsova
...6-2/7-5. This was Wozniacki's fourteenth career final (already, and she's still not yet 20). In the 2nd set, C-Woz fell behind 4-1 as she was being out-served by the more aggressive Govortsova. Then, as the 2nd set progressed, the Dane worked her way into this one the same way she always does -- by extending rallies and making the Belarusian hit two or three extra shots to win a point (that's that not-so-bad "sameness" I was talking about earlier). After tightening things up on the scoreboard with a break, every point became ultra-important, so C-Woz turned the screws on Govortsova's psyche, with everything coming to a head in the tenth game of the set. Serving for the set at 5-4, Govortsova used her serve (especially a stinging wide shot to the Ad court that continually got Wozniacki off balance and allowed Govortsova to gain control of the point) to great effect. She had two set points. But Wozniacki's tactics brought out whatever tension existed in her opponent's game, and those few extra shots each point continued to frustrate Govortosova, who'd manage to miss one of the them and push the game to deuce yet again. In all, there were eight deuce points in the game, and Wozniacki put away the break on her seventh break chance of the game when Govortsova's serve finally cracked under the pressure and she threw in a double-fault on BP. With her opponent unable to escape her disappointment, the last two games went pretty quickly for C-Woz. Another Govortsova DF gave her a match point, and a weak Govortsova error ended things a few moments later. Wozniacki's seventh career title ties her with Anna Chakvetadze on the active list... which sort of tells you that nothing is definitive, even after a young player notches one more than half a dozen titles. In other words, C-Woz's work must continue unabated.
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4. Marb Final - Pennetta d. Suarez-Navarro
...6-2/4-6/6-3. Just when you think you can disregard Pennetta as a potential champion, Madame Butterfly takes flight. Even in what would be considered an "off" season so far for the veteran, she's been a Fed Cup star and reached two tour finals.
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5. Marb 1st Rd - Citizen's Latest Watch Saleswoman d. Dulgheru
...6-4/6-7/6-2. This was her first clay court win since 2006, but the tightness of the score should have been a sign of what came next.
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6. PVB QF - Vesnina d. Oudin
...6-2/6-1. Oudin went 4-0 versus Hordettes during her QF run at the U.S. Open last summer. So far in 2010, she's sporting a 0-4 mark against Russians. Payback can be a b-... eautifully symmetrical thing.
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7. Marb QF - Martinez-Sanchez d. Azarenka
...4-0 ret. Thigh strain. Has Azarenka's season jerked into an irreversible U-turn over the last month? Charleston might be suddenly very important for her.
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8. Charleston Q1 - Ziyas d. Karatantcheva
...7-6/7-5. Home-grown Kazakh defeats Imported/Borrowed/Layaway Plan Kazakh.
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9. Charleston Q1 - Ivanova d. Stevenson
...6-0/6-0. As noted before, the Tennis Gods DO have a sense a humor. How else to you explain that on the same weekend that surprise '99 Wimbledon semifinalist Lucic wins her first title in a dozen years in Mississippi, surprise '99 Wimbledon semifinalist Alexandra Stevenson was double-bageled just a few states away in South Carolina?
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**2010 WTA FINALS**
3...Elena Dementieva, RUS (2-1)
3...Venus Williams, USA (2-1)
2...Justine's Countrywoman, BEL (2-0)
2...FLAVIA PENNETTA, ITA (1-1)
2...Serena Williams, USA (1-1)
2...CAROLINE WOZNIACKI, DEN (1-1)
2...Justine Henin, BEL (0-2)

**TEENAGE CHAMPIONS**
[by recent season]
2005: 14 (RUS-6, CZE-5, IND-1, NED-1, SRB-1)
2006: 17 (RUS-7, ISR-3, CZE-2, NED-2, AUT-1, SRB-1, USA-1)
2007: 10 (SRB-3, FRA-2, HUN-2, RUS-2, POL-1)
2008: 8 (DEN-3, POL-3, FRA-1, ROU-1)
2009: 11 (BLR-3, DEN-3, BEL-2, CZE-1, GER-1, ROU-1)
[2010]
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS - 18y,8m (Monterrey)
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI, DEN - 19y,9m (PONTE VEDRE BEACH)

**2010 FINALS - MOST SURFACES**
2...FLAVIA PENNETTA (hard/red clay)
2...Venus Williams (hard/red clay)
2...CAROLINE WOZNIACKI (hard/green clay)

**MOST DEFENDED WTA TITLES, 2008-10**
3...Venus Williams, USA
2...Serena Williams, USA
2...CAROLINE WOZNIACKI, DEN
1...Elena Dementieva, RUS
1...Jelena Jankovic, SRB
1...Anabel Medina-Garrigues, ESP
1...Tamarine Tanasugarn, THA
1...Vera Zvonareva, RUS

**CONSECUTIVE SEASONS WITH A TOUR TITLE**
[extended with 2010 title]
8 years - Maria Sharapova, 2003-10
5 years - Elena Dementieva, 2006-10
4 years - Jelena Jankovic, 2007-10
4 years - FLAVIA PENNETTA, 2007-10
4 years - Serena Williams, 2007-10
4 years - Venus Williams, 2007-10
3 years - Vera Zvonareva, 2008-10
3 years - CAROLINE WOZNIACKI, 2008-10
[streaks not yet extended with 2010 title]
6 years - Anabel Medina-Garrigues, ESP (2004-09)
3 years - Dinara Safina, RUS (2007-09)





CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA USA (Premier $700K/green clay outdoor)
09 Final: Lisicki d. Wozniacki
10 Top Seeds: Wozniacki/Jankovic
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=QF=
Wozniacki d. Petrova
Zvonareva d. Azarenka
Bartoli d. Stosur
Jankovic d. Hantuchova
=SF=
Wozniacki d. Zvonareva
Bartoli d. Jankovic
=FINAL=
Wozniacki d. Bartoli

...even though this one's on green clay rather than red, this might be a real litmus test for a slew of "second-choices" for potential Roland Garros champion in a few months. Neither Serena nor Justine is here, nor is Dementieva, but most of the rest of the potential Paris breakthrough players are. C-Woz is the most in-form player, but three finals in her last three events might be one too many for even the tour's most workhorse player. JJ won on hard courts, but can she move her resurgence to the clay? Zvonareva has a lot of demons to contend with one year after the ankle injury that occurred in Charleston. Last week, Caroline got the Backspin Picks segment back on track after its unscheduled "sabbatical" in March, so I'll go with her again.


BARCELONA, SPAIN (Int'l $220K/red clay outdoor)
09 Final: Vinci d. Kirilenko
10 Top Seeds: Schiavone/Rezai
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=SF=
Kirilenko d. Suarez-Navarro
Errani d. Safarova
=FINAL=
Kirilenko d. Errani

...these small clay tournaments can be so unpredictable. Kirilenko reached the final a year ago, so maybe she'll go one more this time around. But any draw with the which-side-of-the-bed-did-she-wake-up-on-this-morning? Safarova in it could be flipped on its ear at any given moment.

Next: It's time for an accounting, as "The Taxman Cometh" on ATP Backspin next -- with a "Player of the Year (so far)" update.

All for now.