Australian Open Predictions: Crikey! It's the First Slam of 2019
January is always a capricious character built into the WTA story each and every season. One never knows what to make of what one sees, and fortunes often turn on a dime -- or, as I heard last week on Animal Planet's Australia-based "Crikey! It's the Irwins" show, on a sixpence.
Five times since 2003, the Australian Open champion has had to save (at least one) match point en route to the title. Serena Williams has done it twice!
2003 Serena Williams - saved 2 MP vs. Clijsters in SF
2005 Serena Williams - saved 3 MP vs. Sharapova in SF
2014 Li Na - saved 1 MP vs. Safarova in 3rd Rd.
2016 Angelique Kerber - saved 1 MP vs. Doi in 1st Rd.
2018 Caroline Wozniacki - saved 2 MP vs. Fett in 2nd Rd.
Last year, *both* finalists teetered on the edge of an earlier exit, as Wozniacki's opponent -- now #1 Simona Halep -- saved MP in TWO matches (AND rolled her ankle in an ugly way in the 1st Rd.) along her path to the concluding weekend of play in Melbourne.
In the next few days, even if things suddenly look bleak for one (or more) of the favorites at this first major of 2019, remember that it may simply be another case of the momentum gathered by the simple act of surviving ultimately providing enough fuel to take a player all the way to the end. On occasion, especially Down Under, what *looks* like a sign that the Tennis Gods are on a player's side turns out to be just that.
So, keep that in mind, and keep an eye out... in January it often *is* darkest before the dawn.
*RECENT WOMEN'S SLAM WINNERS*
2016 AO: Angelique Kerber, GER
2016 RG: Garbine Muguruza, ESP
2016 WI: Serena Williams, USA
2016 US: Angelique Kerber, GER
2017 AO: Serena Williams, USA
2017 RG: Alona Ostapenko, LAT
2017 WI: Garbine Muguruza, ESP
2017 US: Sloane Stephens, USA
2018 AO: Caroline Wozniacki, DEN
2018 RG: Simona Halep, ROU
2018 WI: Angelique Kerber, GER
2018 US: Naomi Osaka, JPN
*ACTIVE SINGLES PLAYERS - FIRST SLAM FINAL*
1997 U.S. Open - Venus Williams
1999 U.S. Open - Serena Williams (W)
2004 Wimbledon - Maria Sharapova (W)
2004 U.S. Open - Svetlana Kuznetsova (W)
2008 U.S. Open - Jelena Jankovic
2009 U.S. Open - Caroline Wozniacki
2010 Roland Garros - Samantha Stosur
2010 Wimbledon - Vera Zvonareva
2011 Wimbledon - Petra Kvitova (W)
2012 Australian Open - Victoria Azarenka (W)
2012 Roland Garros - Sara Errani
2013 Wimbledon - Sabine Lisicki
2014 Australian Open - Dominika Cibulkova
2014 Roland Garros - Simona Halep
2014 Wimbledon - Genie Bouchard
2015 Roland Garros - Lucie Safarova
2015 Wimbledon - Garbine Muguruza
2016 Australian Open - Angelique Kerber (W)
2016 U.S. Open - Karolina Pliskova
2017 Roland Garros - Alona Ostapenko (W)
2017 U.S. Open - Sloane Stephens (W)
2017 U.S. Open - Madison Keys
2018 U.S. Open - Naomi Osaka (W)
*AUSTRALIAN OPEN TOP SEEDS - since 2007*
2007 Maria Sharapova, RUS (RU)
2008 Justine Henin, BEL (QF)
2009 Jelena Jankovic, SRB (4th)
2010 Serena Williams, USA (W)
2011 Caroline Wozniacki, DEN (SF)
2012 Caroline Wozniacki, DEN (QF)
2013 Victoria Azarenka, BLR (W)
2014 Serena Williams, USA (4th)
2015 Serena Williams, USA (W)
2016 Serena Williams, USA (RU)
2017 Angelique Kerber, GER (1st)
2018 Simona Halep, ROU (RU)
2019 Simona Halep, ROU
*ALL-TIME AO MATCH WINS - WOMEN*
81...Serena Williams*
60...Margaret Court
56...Lindsay Davenport
54...Maria Sharapova*
52...Martina Hingis
51...Venus Williams*
47...Steffi Graf
46...Martina Navratilova
--
* - active
*FIRST-TIME SLAM CHAMPS AT AUSTRALIAN OPEN - OPEN ERA*
1977 Kerry Melville-Reid, AUS
1978 Chris O'Neil, AUS
1979 Barbara Jordan, USA
1980 Hana Mandlikova, CZE
1995 Mary Pierce, FRA
1997 Martina Hingis, SUI
2001 Jennifer Capriati, USA
2006 Amelie Mauresmo, FRA
2012 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2016 Angelique Kerber, GER
2018 Caroline Wozniacki, DEN
*AUSTRALIAN OPEN FINALS - ACTIVE*
8...Serena Williams (7-1)
4...Maria Sharapova (1-3)
2...Victoria Azarenka (2-0)
2...Venus Williams (0-2)
1...Angelique Kerber (1-0)
1...Caroline Wozniacki (1-0)
1...Simona Halep (0-1)
1...Dominika Cibulkova (0-1)
*RECENT AUSTRALIAN OPEN SEMIFINALISTS*
2012
Azarenka (W), Sharapova (RU), Clijsters/Kvitova
2013
Azarenka (W), Li (RU), Stephens/Sharapova
2014
Li (W), Cibulkova (RU), Bouchard/A.Radwansk
2015
S.Williams (W), Sharapova (RU), Keys/Makarova
2016
Kerber (W), S.Williams (RU), A.Radwanska/Konta
2017
S.Williams (W), V.Williams (RU), Lucic-Baroni/Vandeweghe
2018
Wozniacki (W), Halep (RU), Mertens/Kerber
*LOW-SEEDED AO CHAMPIONS - OPEN ERA*
Unseeded - 1978 Chris O'Neil, AUS
Unseeded - 2007 Serena Williams, USA
#12 - 2001 Jennifer Capriati, USA
#7 - 2005 Serena Williams, USA
#7 - 2016 Angelique Kerber, GER
#5 - 1979 Barbara Jordan, USA
#5 - 2008 Maria Sharapova, RUS
#4 - 1995 Mary Pierce. FRA
#4 - 1997 Martina Hingis, SUI
#4 - 2014 Li Na, CHN
*BACK-to-BACK US/AO TITLES OVER TWO SEASONS - Open era*
1969-70 Margaret Court, AUS
1970-71 Margaret Court, AUS
1988-89 Steffi Graf, FRG
1989-90 Steffi Graf, FRG
1991-92 Monica Seles, YUG
1992-93 Monica Seles, YUG
1993-94 Steffi Graf, GER
1997-98 Martina Hingis, SUI
2002-03 Serena Williams, USA
2003-04 Justine Henin-Hardenne, BEL
2008-09 Serena Williams, USA
2010-11 Kim Clijsters, BEL
2014-15 Serena Williams, USA
*LOWEST-SEEDED WOMEN IN AO SF, since 2000*
Unseeded - 2000 Jennifer Capriati, USA
Unseeded - 2007 Serena Williams, USA (W)
Unseeded - 2010 Zheng Jie, CHN
Unseeded - 2015 Madison Keys, USA
Unseeded - 2016 Johanna Konta, GBR
Unseeded - 2017 Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, CRO
Unseeded - 2017 CoCo Vandeweghe, USA
Unseeded - 2018 Elise Bertens, BEL
Wild Card - 2010 Justine Henin, BEL (RU)
#32 - 2004 Fabiola Zuluaga, COL
#30 - 2014 Genie Bouchard, CAN
#29 - 2013 Sloane Stephens, USA
#22 - 2004 Patty Schnyder, SUI
#21 - 2018 Angelique Kerber, GER
#20 - 2014 Dominika Cibulkova, SVK (RU)
#19 - 2005 Nathalie Dechy, FRA
#16 - 2010 Li Na, CHN
#13 - 2017 Venus Williams, USA (RU)
#12 - 2001 Jennifer Capriati, USA (W)
#11 - 2012 Kim Clijsters, BEL
#10 - 2000 Conchita Martinez, ESP
#10 - 2007 Nicole Vaidisova, CZE
#10 - 2015 Ekaterina Makarova, RUS
*AUSTRALIAN OPEN GIRLS FINALS - since 2005*
2005 Victoria Azarenka/BLR d. Agnes Szavay/HUN
2006 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova/RUS d. Caroline Wozniacki/DEN
2007 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova/RUS d. Madison Brengle/USA
2008 Arantxa Rus/NED d. Jessica Moore/AUS
2009 Ksenia Pervak/RUS d. Laura Robson/GBR
2010 Karolina Pliskova/CZE d. Laura Robson/GBR
2011 An-Sophie Mestach/BEL d. Monica Puig/PUR
2012 Taylor Townsend/USA d. Yulia Putintseva/RUS
2013 Ana Konjuh/CRO d. Katerina Siniakova/CZE
2014 Elizaveta Kulichkova/RUS d. Jana Fett/CRO
2015 Tereza Mihalikova/SVK d. Katie Swan/GBR
2016 Vera Lapko/BLR d. Tereza Mihalikova/SVK
2017 Marta Kostyuk/UKR d. Rebeka Masarova/SUI
2018 Liang En-shuo/TPE d. Clara Burel/FRA
*BEST AO GIRLS/WOMEN'S RESULTS*
[won Girls & Women's titles]
Evonne Goolagong (1970 Jr. Champion; 1974-77 Women's Champion)
Chris O'Neil (1973 Jr. Champion; 1978 Women's Champion)
Victoria Azarenka (2005 Jr. Champion; 2012-13 Women's Champion)
[others]
Lindsay Davenport (1992 Jr. RU; 2000 Women's Champion)
Maria Sharapova (2002 Jr. RU; 2008 Women's Champion)
Caroline Wozniacki (2006 Jr. RU; 2018 Women's Champion)
*AO WHEELCHAIR CHAMPIONS*
2002 Esther Vergeer, NED
2003 Esther Vergeer, NED
2004 Esther Vergeer, NED
2005 Sharon Walraven, NED
2006 Esther Vergeer, NED
2007 Esther Vergeer, NED
2008 Esther Vergeer, NED
2009 Esther Vergeer, NED
2010 Korie Homan, NED
2011 Esther Vergeer, NED
2012 Esther Vergeer, NED
2013 Aniek van Koot, NED
2014 Sabine Ellerbrock, GER
2015 Jiske Griffioen, NED
2016 Jiske Griffioen, NED
2017 Yui Kamiji, JPN
2018 Diede de Groot, NED
[doubles]
2004 Maaike Smit/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2005 Florence Gravellier/Maaike Smit, FRA/NED
2006 Jiske Griffioen/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2007 Jiske Griffioen/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2008 Jiske Griffioen/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2009 Korie Homan/Esther Vergeer, NED/NED
2010 Florence Gravellier/Aniek van Koot, FRA/NED
2011 Esther Vergeer/Sharon Walraven, NED/NED
2012 Esther Vergeer/Sharon Walraven, NED/NED
2013 Jiske Griffioen/Aniek van Koot, NED/NED
2014 Yui Kamiji/Jordanne Whiley, JPN/GBR
2015 Yui Kamiji/Jordanne Whiley, JPN/GBR
2016 Marjolein Buis/Yui Kamiji, NED/JPN
2017 Jiske Griffioen/Aniek van Koot, NED/NED
2018 Marjolein Buis/Yui Kamiji, NED/JPN
*RECENT WC SLAM SINGLES FINALS*
2016 AO - #1 Jiske Griffioen/NED d. Aniek Van Koot/NED
2016 RG - Marjolein Buis/NED d. Sabine Ellerbrock/GER
2016 WI - #1 Jiske Griffioen/NED d. Aniek Van Koot/NED
2017 AO - #2 Yui Kamiji/JPN def. #1 Jiske Griffioen/NED
2017 RG - #2 Yui Kamiji/JPN def. Sabine Ellerbrock/GER
2017 WI - Diede de Groot/NED def. Sabine Ellerbrock/GER
2017 US - #1 Yui Kamiji/JPN def. #2 Diede de Groot/NED
2018 AO - #2 Diede de Groot/NED def. #1 Yui Kamiji/JPN
2018 RG - #1 Yui Kamiji/JPN def. #2 Diede de Groot/NED
2018 WI - #1 Diede de Groot/NED def. Aniek van Koot/NED
2018 US - #1 Diede de Groot/NED def. #2 Yui Kamiji/JPN
*SLAM TITLES AFTER AGE 30*
10..Serena Williams, USA (age 30-35)*
3...Martina Navratilova, USA (age 30-33)
3...Margaret Court, AUS (age 30-31)
2...Billie Jean King, USA (age 30 & 31)
2...Chris Evert, USA (age 30 & 31)
1...Flavia Pennetta, ITA (age 33)
1...Virginia Wade. GBR (age 31)
1...Ann Haydon Jones, GBR (age 30)
1...Angelique Kerber, GER (age 30)*
--
*-active
*OLDEST WOMEN'S SINGLES SLAM CHAMPIONS - OPEN ERA*
Serena Williams (35y/125) - 2017 Australian
Serena Williams (34/283) - 2016 Wimbledon
Serena Williams (33/285) - 2015 Wimbledon
Martina Navratilova (33/263) - 1990 Wimbledon
Serena Williams (33/254) - 2015 Roland Garros
Flavia Pennetta (33/201) - 2015 U.S. Open
Serena Williams (33/127) - 2015 Australian
*OLDEST WOMEN'S SINGLES SLAM FINALISTS*
Martina Navratilova (37y,258d) — lost '94 WI to C.Martinez
Venus Williams (37/28) - lost '17 WI to Muguruza
Serena Williams (36/347) - lost '18 US to Osaka
Serena Williams (36/291) - lost '18 WI to Kerber
Venus Williams (36/226) — '17 AO, lost to S.Williams
Serena Williams (35/125) — '17 AO, def. V.Williams
Martina Navratilova (34/325) — '91 US, lost to Seles
Serena Williams (34/287) — '16 WI, def. Kerber
Serena Williams (34/252) — '16 RG, lost to Muguruza
Serena Williams (34/127) — '16 AO, lost to Kerber
*OLDEST FIRST-TIME SLAM CHAMPS*
33y,199d - Flavia Pennetta, 2015 U.S. Open
29y,346d - Francesca Schiavone, 2010 Roland Garros
29y,275d - Jana Novotna, 1998 Wimbledon
29y,154d - Kerry Melville-Reid, 1977 Australian Open
29y,98d - Li Na, 2011 Roland Garros
28y,277d - Marion Bartoli, 2013 Wimbledon
28y,12d - Angelique Kerber, 2016 Australian Open
27y,200d - Caroline Wozniacki, 2018 Australian Open
26y,255d - Simona Halep, 2018 Roland Garros
26y,207d - Amelie Mauresmo, 2006 Australian Open
26y,165d - Samantha Stosur, 2011 U.S. Open
*MOST SLAMS BEFORE FIRST TITLE*
49 - Flavia Pennetta (2015 U.S. Open)
47 - Marion Bartoli (2013 Wimbledon)
45 - Jana Novotna (1998 Wimbledon)
43 - Caroline Wozniacki (2018 Australian Open)
39 - Francesca Schiavone (2010 Roland Garros)
34 - Samantha Stosur (2011 U.S. Open)
33 - Angelique Kerber (2016 Australian Open)
32 - Simona Halep (2018 Roland Garros)
32 - Amelie Mauresmo (2006 Australian Open)
*TEEN SLAM CHAMPS - since 1997*
1997 Martina Hingis, 16 (AO)*
1997 Iva Majoli, 19 (RG)*
1997 Martina Hingis, 16 (WI)
1997 Martina Hingis, 16 (US)
1998 Martina Hingis, 17 (AO)
1999 Martina Hingis, 18 (AO)
1999 Serena Williams, 17 (US)*
2004 Maria Sharapova, 17 (WI)*
2004 Svetlana Kuznetsova, 19 (US)*
2006 Maria Sharapova, 19 (US)
--
* - first-time slam winner
NOTE: Ostapenko* (won '17 RG at 20 yrs, 2 days)
*BIGGEST AGE DIFFERENCE IN SLAM FINAL*
17y,45d - Seles (17) d. Navratilova (34) = '91 U.S.
16y,20d - Osaka (20) d. S.Williams (36) = '18 U.S.
15y,180d - Martinez (22) d. Navratilova (37) = '94 WI
14y,175d - Graf (18) d. Evert (33) = '88 AO
13y,113d - Muguruza (23) d. V.Williams (37) = '17 WI
*LOW RANKED IN SLAM FINAL - Open era*
NR - Evonne Goolagong, 1977 Australian (W)
NR - Kim Clijsters, 2009 US Open (W)
NR - Justine Henin, 2010 Australian
#181 - Serena Williams, 2018 Wimbledon
#111 - Chris O'Neil, 1978 Australian (W)
#83 - Sloane Stephens, 2017 US Open (W)
#81 - Serena Williams, 2007 Australian (W)
#78 - Betsy Nagelson, 1978 Australian
#68 - Barbara Jordan, 1979 Australian (W)
#66 - Venus Williams. 1997 US Open
*FIRST-TIME SLAM SEMIFINALISTS SINCE 2013*
=2013=
AO: Sloane Stephens/USA
RG: -
WI: Kirsten Flipkens/BEL
US: Flavia Pennetta/ITA
=2014=
AO: Genie Bouchard/CAN
RG: Simona Halep/ROU (RU), Andrea Petkovic/GER
WI: Lucie Safarova/CZE
US: Ekatarina Makarova/RUS, Peng Shuai/CHN
=2015=
AO: Madison Keys/USA
RG: Timea Bacsinszky/SUI
WI: Garbine Muguruza/ESP (RU)
US: Roberta Vinci/ITA (RU)
=2016=
AO: Johanna Konta/GBR
RG: Kiki Bertens/NED
WI: Elena Vesnina/RUS
US: Karolina Pliskova/CZE (RU)
=2017=
AO: CoCo Vandeweghe/USA
RG: Alona Ostapenko/LAT (W)
WI: Magdalena Rybarikova/SVK
US: -
=2018=
AO: Elise Mertens/BEL
RG: -
WI: Julia Goerges/GER
US: Naomi Osaka/JPN (W), Anastasija Sevastova/LAT
*CAREER SLAM #1 SEEDS - active*
20...Serena Williams
6...Caroline Wozniacki
5...SIMONA HALEP
4...Maria Sharapova
3...Victoria Azarenka
3...Angelique Kerber
1...Jelena Jankovic
1...Karolina Pliskova
1...Venus Williams
*RECENT SLAM JUNIOR CHAMPS*
[2016]
AO: Vera Lapko, BLR
RG: Rebeka Masarova, SUI
WI: Anastasia Potapova, RUS
US: Kayla Day, USA
[2017]
AO: Marta Kostyuk, UKR
RG: Whitney Osuigwe, USA
WI: Claire Liu, USA
US: Amanda Anisimova, USA
[2018]
AO: Liang En-shuo, TPE
RG: Coco Gauff, USA
WI: Iga Swiatek, POL
US: Wang Xiyu, CHN
*SERENA, MARIA, VIKA & VENUS IN SAME SLAM DRAW*
=CHAMPIONS=
=2006=
AO - Mauresmo
=2007=
RG - HENIN
WI - V.Williams
US - HENIN
=2008=
AO - Sharapova
RG - IVANOVIC
WI - V.Williams
=2009=
RG - KUZNETSOVA
WI - S.Williams
US - CLIJSTERS
=2010=
AO - S.Williams
RG - SCHIAVONE
WI - S.Williams
=2011=
WI - KVITOVA
US - STOSUR
=2012=
RG - Sharapova
WI - S.Williams
US - S.Williams
=2013=
AO - Azarenka
RG - S.Williams
=2014=
AO - LI
WI - KVITOVA
=2015=
AO - S.Williams
RG - S.Williams
WI - S.Williams
=2016=
AO - KERBER
=2017=
-
=2018=
RG - HALEP
WI - KERBER
US - OSAKA
===
[TITLES - 29 slams]
[overall]
14 - Serena, Venus, Maria, Vika
15 - everyone else (12 different players)
[individual]
9 - S.Williams
2 - Henin,Kerber,Kvitova,Sharapova,V.Williams
1 - Azarenka,Clijsters,Halep,Ivanovic,Kuznetsova,Li,Mauresmo,Osaka,Schiavone,Stosur
=ROUND OF 16 PREDICTIONS=
#16 S.Williams d. V.Williams - #1 Halep is in this section, too - maybe gets Hobart champ Kenin in 2nd Rd.
#7 Ka.Pliskova d. #18 Muguruza - I was so tempted to replace Mugu with Bacsinszky or Tomljanovic
#4 Osaka d. (Q) Andreescu - can Q.Wang (or Vika?) slip through here?
#6 Svitolina d. #17 Keys - '18 SF Mertens could face Keys in 3rd; can Eli beat *both* SVK's, Kuzmova & Cibulkova?
#11 Sabalenka d. #8 Kvitova - I tried to knock out Petra early, but couldn't pick a rightful upset winner
#15 Barty d. #3 Wozniacki - the last repeat winner was Azarenka in 2013
#9 Bertens d. #31 Martic - Sloane's quarter, as well as that of Sasnovich. Hmmm.
#2 Kerber d. #14 Goerges - Oktoberfest in January, and Angie has unfinished AO business
=QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#16 S.Williams d. #7 Ka.Pliskova - if the Czech wins here, she maybe wins it all
#4 Osaka d. #6 Svitolina - Svitolina really *needs* a win here, though
#11 Sabalenka d. #15 Barty - Sabalenka has unfinished business, too
#2 Kerber d. #9 Bertens - Bertens had three 3r's in her first 22 slams, she's got 4 straight coming into '19
=SEMIFINAL PREDICTIONS=
#16 S.Williams d. #4 Osaka - cue the likely truth-challenged U.S. Open '18 final rehashes
#11 Sabalenka d. #2 Kerber - if Kerber wins here, would she be even money to win out over Serera?
=FINAL PREDICTION=
#16 S.Williams d. #11 Sabalenka -- she seems fit, focused and determined to get #24 in '18... why not get it out of the way?
posted by Todd.Spiker @ 12:05 AM
1 Comments:
Can't argue the pick, there are about 20 legit SF candidates, and 10 people I could see with the trophy.
Over/Under on qualifying winners in the first round? 7.
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