Under the Spell of Indian Wells
Traditionally, Indian Wells has been the event where the "upper crust" of the WTA tour snacks on tiny finger sandwiches with their crusts cut off with uniform perfection. For the most part, only the best players have risen above the fray in the first North American stop on the month-long, coast-to-coast "Sunshine Double" stretch that closes out the opening quarter of each season. Well, at least until last year.
2018's Indian Wells final was an odd bird, as it pitted an unseeded player (#44 Naomi Osaka) against the #20 seed (Dasha Kasatkina). They'd combined for a total of just one tour-level singles title, had never advanced beyond a slam Round of 16, and had only spent a handful of weeks in the Top 20 (all by the Russian, who only spent her first consecutive weeks there mid-way through last year's I.W. two-week run). It was a starkly different match-up than in nearly every other previous Indian Wells final since the tournament's inception in 1989. Since then, the vast majority of champions (and nearly all finalists) had won slam crowns, or at least reached slam finals or semis.
But, naturally, the "magically" predictive nature of the event would eventually prove to have legs once more. By the end of the season, Osaka had followed up her Indian Wells title with her maiden crown at the U.S. Open. Then she won the Australian Open, too, and became the first Asian singles #1 in January. Kasatkina finished '18 in the Top 10 for the first time, reached her first two slam QF in Paris and London, and increased her career Top 3 win total to eight by the end of Roland Garros (with all coming over a year and a half span).
Still, even after backing up their desert results, both Osaka and Kasatkina return to Indian Wells twelve months after what could be viewed as the igniting event of their career years with questions about their immediate futures. Both recently ended successful coaching relationships, Osaka with Sascha Bajin after an insanely good thirteen-month period, and Kasatkina with Philippe Dehaes after yet another slow start to a season after they were seemingly such a good match throughout '18 ("You're the Russian Wall!"). Osaka has officially added coach Jermaine Jenkins to her team as she undertakes the first title defense attempt of her career just weeks after she looked listless in her only post-AO match in Dubai. Kasatkina, now ranked #14, is still in something of a state of coaching flux as she faces the prospect of tumbling down the rankings if she can't soon reverse a slide that has so far produced a 2-5 mark in '19, with three losses to players ranked #95 or lower.
As Indian Wells set the course for the remainder of both finalists' 2018 seasons, might the same happen for 2019? For good or bad, much will be made of how Osaka and Kasatkina compete *this* year in the desert and what their ultimate result means about the decisions they've made, and for what comes next.
If not them, though, which two players might take their turns in the finalist hot seat? After all, success in Indian Wells is quite possibly more reflective of a player's potential -- past, present or future -- than any event all season long. Maybe even more so than a single deep run at a major. There are plenty of tennis stars in the draw just itching to be "born."
It's why what happens over the next two weeks is so important. This isn't a throw-away event. It's where the members of the upper crust, or those aspiring for such a standing, come with a healthy appetite and an inclination to make a scene. At least two women will leave California having satisfied both desires.
Stay tuned.
**INDIAN WELLS SINGLES FINALS**
=1989 Tier III; 1990-96 Tier II; 1997-2008 Tier I; 2009-present Premier Mandatory=
1989 Manuela Maleeva d. Jenny Byrne
1990 Martina Navratilova d. Helena Sukova
1991 Martina Navratilova d. Monica Seles
1992 Monica Seles d. Conchita Martinez
1993 Mary Joe Fernandez d. Amanda Coetzer
1994 Steffi Graf d. Amanda Coetzer
1995 Mary Joe Fernandez d Natasha Zvereva
1996 Steffi Graf d Conchita Martinez
1997 Lindsay Davenport d. Irina Spirlea
1998 Martina Hingis d. Lindsay Davenport
1999 Serena Williams d. Steffi Graf
2000 Lindsay Davenport d. Martina Hingis
2001 Serena Williams d. Kim Clijsters
2002 Daniela Hantuchova d. Martina Hingis
2003 Kim Clijsters d. Lindsay Davenport
2004 Justine Henin d. Lindsay Davenport
2005 Kim Clijsters d. Lindsay Davenport
2006 Maria Sharapova d. Elena Dementieva
2007 Daniela Hantuchova d. Svetlana Kuznetsova
2008 Ana Ivanovic d. Svetlana Kuznetsova
2009 Vera Zvonareva d. Ana Ivanovic
2010 Jelena Jankovic d. Caroline Wozniacki
2011 Caroline Wozniacki d. Marion Bartoli
2012 Victoria Azarenka d. Maria Sharapova
2013 Maria Sharapova d. Caroline Wozniacki
2014 Flavia Pennetta d. Aga Radwanska
2015 Simona Halep d. Jelena Jankovic
2016 Victoria Azarenka d. Serena Williams
2017 Elena Vesnina d. Svetlana Kuznetsova
2018 Naomi Osaka d. Dasha Kasatkina
**INDIAN WELLS DOUBLES FINALS**
1989 Mandlikova/Pam Shriver d. Fairbank/Rush-Magers
1990 Novotna/Sukova d. G.Fernandez/Navratilova
1991 FINAL RAINED OUT
1992 Kohde-Kilsch/Rehe d. Hetherington/Rinaldi
1993 Stubbs/Sukova d. Grossman/Hy
1994 Davenport/Raymond d. Bollegraf/Sukova
1995 Davenport/Raymond d. Savchenko Neiland/A.Sanchez
1996 Rubin/Schultz-McCarthy d. Halard/Tauziat
1997 Davenport/Zvereva d. Raymond/Tauziat
1998 Davenport/Zvereva d. Fusai/Tauziat
1999 Hingis/Kournikova d. MJ.Fernandez/Novotna
2000 Davenport/Morariu d. Kournikova/Zvereva
2001 Arendt/Sugiyama d. Ruano Pascual/Suarez
2002 Raymond/Stubbs d. Dementieva/Husarova
2003 Davenport/Raymond d. Clijsters/Sugiyama
2004 Ruano Pascual/Suarez d. Kuznetsova/Likhovtseva
2005 Ruano Pascual/Suarez d. Petrova/Shaughnessy
2006 Raymond/Stosur d. Ruano Pascual/Shaughnessy
2007 Raymond/Stosur d. Chan/Chan
2008 Safina/Vesnina d. Yan/Zheng
2009 Azarenka/Zvonareva d. Dulko/Peer
2010 Peschke/Srebotnik d. Petrova/Stosur
2011 Mirza/Vesnina d. Mattek-Sands/Shaughnessy
2012 Huber/Raymond d. Mirza/Vesnina
2013 Makarova/Vesnina d. Petrova/Srebotnik
2014 Hsieh/Peng d. C.Black/Mirza
2015 Hingis/Mirza d. Makarova/Vesnina
2016 Mattek-Sands/Vandeweghe d. Goerges/Ka.Pliskova
2017 L.Chan/Hingis d. Hradecka/Siniakova
2018 Hsieh/Strycova d. Makarova/Vesnina
**MOST INDIAN WELLS WS FINALS**
6...Lindsay Davenport (2-4)
3...Kim Clijsters (2-1)
3...Steffi Graf (2-1)
3...Maria Sharapova (2-1)
3...Serena Williams (2-1) *
3...Martina Hingis (1-2)
3...Caroline Wozniacki (1-2) *
3...Svetlana Kuznetsova (0-3)
2...Martina Navratilova (2-0)
2...Victoria Azarenka (2-0) *
2...Mary Joe Fernandez (2-0)
2...Daniela Hantuchova (2-0)
2...Ana Ivanovic (1-1)
2...Jelena Jankovic (1-1)
2...Monica Seles (1-1)
2...Amanda Coetzer (0-2)
2...Conchita Martinez (0-2)
--
* - in 2019 MD
**INDIAN WELLS...**
[champions w/o slam titles]
1989 Manuela Maleeva - reached slam SF
1993/95 Mary Joe Fernandez (2) - reached slam final
2002/07 Daniela Hantuchova (2) - reached slam SF
2009 Vera Zvonareva - reached slam final
2010 Jelena Jankovic - reached slam final, ranked #1
2017 Elena Vesnina - reached slam SF, ranked WD #1
[finalists w/o slam final]
1989 Manuela Maleeva - reached slam SF
1989 Jenny Byrne
1993/94 Amanda Coetzer (2) - reached slam SF
1997 Irina Spirlea - reached slam SF
2002/07 Daniela Hantuchova - reached slam SF
2018 Dasha Kasatkina
**INDIAN WELLS-MIAMI...**
[reached IW-Miami Finals]
1991 Monica Seles (L-W)
1994 Steffi Graf (W-W)
1996 Steffi Graf (W-W)
1999 Serena Williams (W-L)
2000 Lindsay Davenport (W-L)
2000 Martina Hingis (L-W)
2005 Kim Clijsters (W-W)
2006 Maria Sharapova (W-L)
2012 Maria Sharapova (L-L)
2013 Maria Sharapova (W-L)
2016 Victoria Azarenka (W-W)
[reached AO-IW-Miami Finals]
1991 Monica Seles (W-L-W)
1994 Steffi Graf (W-W-W)
2000 Lindsay Davenport (W-W-L)
2000 Martina Hingis (L-L-W)
2012 Maria Sharapova (L-L-L)
INDIAN WELLS, CALIFORNIA USA (Premier Mandatory/Hard)
'19 TOP SEEDS
WS: #1 Osaka, #2 Halep, #3 Kvitova, #4 Stephens
WD: #1 Krejcikova/Siniakova, #2 Babos/Mladenovic, #3 Hsieh/Strycova, #4 Melichar/Peschke
=======================================
Last year's tournaments had a momentous tone about it (a feeling that would only deepen with what Osaka would do later), as Serena Williams (out since the '17 AO) and Victoria Azarenka ('17 Wimbledon) returned from long absences, while those two appeared in a draw along with Maria Sharapova for the first time since the '16 AO. In the end, another former #1 -- Venus Williams -- outlasted them all with a semifinal run.
Sister, Sister ??
— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) March 4, 2019
Welcome back, @serenawilliams
& @Venuseswilliams...#BNPPO19 pic.twitter.com/j0ro2MOsen
Serena (#10) and Vika (#48, fresh off a WD title in Acapulco -- her first of any kind since her I.W./Miami singles sweep in '16 before having a baby) are back this year, but Sharapova (#29) is out as she once again deals with lingering shoulder issues. Venus, now 38, returns, as well, having not reached another semi since her final four last March in the desert. Currently ranked #36, an early exit could prove to make the rest of '19 an uphill battle for a future Hall of Famer who already hasn't reached a final since the '17 WTA Finals.
Also back for another go at what proved to be a breakthrough event: Amanda Anisimova, who upset Petra Kvitova in '18 and this year reached the 4th Round in Melbourne (falling, wouldn't you know it, to Kvitova), and Danielle Collins, the recent AO semifinalist whose Round of 16 I.W. run preceded an even bigger semifinal result in Miami a few weeks later prior to her AO semi this season.
Kvitova leads the tour with three finals through the opening two months of the season, but to this point none of the twelve '19 singles champions have been able to double up for a second crown. So Indian Wells provides the opportunity for a number of players to begin to nose ahead of the field as we head into the meat of the tour schedule. 2017-18 #1 Simona Halep, now standing at #2, enters with fewer physical questions than she did a year ago when she was still recovering from her debilitating final run Down Under, yet still managed to reach the I.W. semifinals. 10-3 since the start of the Australian Open, Halep is seeking her first title since being a MP away from sweeping Montreal and Cincinnati during the tour's last big event North American stretch.
While '18 champ Osaka bucked the trend by winning her second major title one slam after picking up her first, only one I.W. champ has managed to defend the title -- Martina Navratilova in 1991. Meanwhile, last year's runner-up Kasatkina remains one of only two finalists (Jenny Byrne '89) to have never advanced as far as a slam semifinal.
How about this year? Well, we could get some early-round doozies, as Kvitova/V.Williams and S.Williams/Azarenka are on tap in potential 2nd Round match-ups, with Osaka/Collins, Wozniacki/Bencic and Muguruza/Serena-Vika in the 3rd.
Here's *one* version of how things might go...
=ROUND OF 16=
#23 Bencic d. #1 Osaka
#5 Ka.Pliskova d. #11 Sevastova
#3 Kvitova d. #15 Goerges
#9 Sabalenka d. #8 Kerber
#7 Bertens d. #10 S.Williams
(WC) Anisimova d. (WC) Andreescu
Yastremska d. #12 Barty
#2 Halep d. Kuzmova
=QF=
#5 Ka.Pliskova d. #23 Bencic
#9 Sabalenka d. #3 Kvitova
#7 Bertens d. (WC) Anisimova
#2 Halep d. Yastremska
=SF=
#5 Ka.Pliskova d. #9 Sabalenka
#7 Bertens d. #2 Halep
=FINAL=
#5 Ka.Pliskova d. #7 Bertens
=DOUBLES CHAMPIONS=
...the doubles draw isn't out yet. But, hmmm, in preferential order anyway...
1. #6 Stosur/Sh.Zhang (AUS/CHN)
2. #3 Hsieh/Strycova (TPE/CZE)
3. Chan/Chan (TPE/TPE)
4. #2 Babos/Mladenovic (HUN/FRA)
5. Makarova/?? (RUS/??) - probably either Hradecka or Gasparyan
spot the two that don’t match pic.twitter.com/ZSlneU6Ks1
— Kälin ???? (@suisseconfiture) March 3, 2019
This cat lives in an animal shelter and at night he sneaks out to go to visit his friend. ??#AdoptDontShoppic.twitter.com/MhlgMSvtyv
— Molly (@MsMollyRachael) February 28, 2019
posted by Todd.Spiker @ 12:32 AM
9 Comments:
Ready for an exciting two weeks? You should be. Do need to correct my Kenin mishap. Q-Draw came out on Sunday, not Monday, so draw went by last week's rankings, so even with Giorgi's pullout, #31 Kenin is first seed out.
Can Bellis come back so I can get a Bibi vs Cici match?
7.5 On the Up Side-The Non Chalk Edition.
1.Bertens-A higher ranked pick than I want to make here, the draw breaks for her well. Even with a probable night match vs Serena, Williams will have had to go through Azarenka and Muguruza. If she goes down before the final, it may be to.....
2.Wang Q.- If I had any guts, I would pick her to go all the way. But QF is probably her limit. You see, she has been the Asian version of Bertens, and not in a good way.Remember when Bertens would leave Wimbledon, then play another clay event, then show up in the US 3 weeks late? Wang does the same, playing the China event, and/or the Asian Games, then puts up poor US results. So much so that counting ITF/125K/WTA, the SF in the recent 125K was the first time she has ever been past the round of 16 in a US event. That R16 was Indian Wells last year, when she beat Bacsinszky, Mertens, and Mladenovic, before losing to Halep. She is a better player now, so expectations are higher.
3.Kontaveit- Doesn't have a great draw, but if you go by the numbers, she fits the profile of the shock winner. Like Osaka last year, and Vesnina the year before, her best result heading into IW is a QF. Also, chalk hasn't been doing well here as 4 of the last 5 winners are Pennetta-21, Azarenka-15, Vesnina-15, Osaka-44. The only Top 10 winner was....
4.Halep- The 2015 winner, if I go chalk, she would be the one. In the post Serena era, yes, I said it, she is the one person that is a threat everywhere. She wins in Australia. She wins in the Middle East. She wins in the US. She wins, well insert every clay event. You get the picture.
5.Mcnally- Should have got an MDWC, but already beat Kr. Pliskova(who may have been a darkhorse pick)for her 4th Top 100 win in the last 2 months. Has a tough task in Bacsinszky, but should be up to it. McNally is ready to be on tour, and that is no shot at Gauff, as she still doesn't turn 15 until next week.
6.Gibbs- The US player to a T. 26 of her 34 wins last year were in the US. So would thing IW is perfect for her. It almost wasn't, as until the WC's came out, Gibbs wasn't in the field. No, she didn't get one, but enough people moved into the main draw that she got int the Q one. And won her first round match.
7.Kuzmova- Has a fun draw, with possible matches vs Vondrousova and potentially Halep. Having gotten that Top 10 win vs Bertens, plus already having reached both SF and QF this year, she might be the breakout youngster of this tourney. Not Anisimova, only because of her recent RET.
7.5. Riske- The Anti American-Most of the US players are better in the US and slams. Riske is better overseas, and struggles in slams. The Bouchard clone is due, and if you think I am joking, there is only a one inch difference, both are right handed with a two handed backhand, both are effective, but awkward, both have 1 WTA title, but Riske has one more ITF title(7-6).
7.5 On the Down Side.
1.V.Williams- Took a 15 year break from IW, but a streak even longer than Serena's AO streak may end here. Unseeded, if she plays Kvitova, a streak longer than Kuzmova's life will end. It will be the first time at IW since her 1998 SF vs #1 Hingis that she would play a higher seed here.
2.Wang Y. But she just won a title? No shade there, as she is another up and comer. But this isn't the olden days, when Chris and Martina would win 5 weeks in a row. First time winners that don't pull out of the next tournament normally have a short shelf life. The turning point may have been when Wozniak won Stanford, then went to Los Angeles and won one game. Just too quick of a turnaround. The deeper runs are the ones that win the week before a slam. Plus, Wang's R16 run last year was at Miami, so expect her to do better there.
3.Sabalenka-Has a title, but hasn't really played well. WTA mentioned that she doesn't have a Top 50 win this season, which is technically true, as Sharapova retired 2 games away from the finish line. Has uncomfortable players Cornet and Tsurenko in her section.
4.Osaka- First title defense of her career. Is she ready? Even with a softer draw than most, I would say no. Plus the numbers work against her because she is #1. Number #1 hasn't won an event this year, nor has 2 or 3. The highest was Osaka winning AO ranked 4th. Makes this year similar to 2016, when #5 Radwanska won Shenzhen early, but it took 20 events for a Top 3 player to win-when #3 Kerber won Stuttgart.
5.Puig-I want to pick her, especially in Miami, but 4 RET the last 10 months. Every time she has momentum, it stops. With the exception of Fed Cup, hasn't had back to back wins since Wuhan.
6.Buzarnescu- Got the anvil off her back, but has a tough/fun match vs Yastremska. One of the smartest players on tour, her smarts are sometimes negated by her lack of range, which makes her one of the rare players that it is easier to pass on the baseline than when she comes to net.
7.Siegemund- One year into the comeback, she has a chance to finally reenter the Top 100. But we are on hard, and she doesn't play up. Only 2 wins vs higher ranked players on hard the last year-Azarenka and Kasatkina via ret.
7.5. Kerber- Has played really well, but the losses are troubling. The final set of her losses? 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-1. That is something that you expect from Vekic, who may be the seed most in need of working on the mental aspect. Seriously, for someone who uses the drop shot as well as she does, she can go off the plot if someone uses it against her. Vekic also struggles with a pro home crowd, and might play a US qualifier, so low expectations.
Agree with Kerber's 3rd sets this year (and full match vs. Collins). It feels like something of a warning sign, though hopefully it's just early-season weirdness.
Sabalenka hasn't been impressive (even w/ a title), but it's about time for her to "click-in," right? More so than, say, Ostapenko, at least.
Doubles draw is out, and it is nuts. No Makarova or Mattek-Sands, but Bouchard/Stephens, Goerges/Pliskova, Bertens/Vekic and Azarenka/Svitolina add some name power. Plus Mertens/Sabalenka vs Babos/Mladenovic, and Siniakova/Krejcikova vs Barty/Garcia.
Every Top 8 seed except Dabrowski/Xu is a threat.
Also, Serena/Venus, but *no* Ostapenko with anyone (surprising since she's rescued so many weeks over the past year with good doubles results).
And Schuurs with yet another different partner -- Veronika Kudermetova.
Too bad the Pliskovas didn't team up, then we'd have the rare four-sibling (w/ Williams, Chans and Kichenoks) duo draw. As it is, all three are in the top half.
You threw me for a sec, but Williams/Williams did their normal(at least for the last few years)and pulled out to be replaced by Pavlyuchenkova/Sevastova.
Still curious if Zvonareva stays in.
Oh, they were still in the draw on the Wikipedia page (and as of right now, that's still the case).
Not sure why they do that so much. It's not as if anyone was expecting them to play doubles in the first place.
(Although it might help my Stosur/Zhang pick a bit, since they were lined up to play early.) :)
I'm leaning toward the Chans, but Stosur/Zhang are still standing, while 2,4 and 7 seeds are out.
Zvonareva did pull out, Muguruza/Suarez Navarro replace her.
Whole bunch of rematches in round 2-Hsieh/Konta, Gavrilova/Buzarnescu, Brady/Garcia, and some match with former slam winners.
"She doesn't have any weapons." Jelena Jankovic regarding Melanie Oudin. That is how I feel when I watch Voegele. But the 5-1 H2H vs Stephens, which seems odd isn't. Her one weapon is that she has a Brengle like quality to get the ball back without pace, and let Stephens hit error after error. And think about one of the players similar to Stephens in Keys, Voegele is 1-1 vs her, winning in 2 sets, then losing in 6-4 in 3, with Keys hitting 20 aces.
Azarenka used the wrong gameplan, which was bad for her, but good for us. Needed to go to net and shorten the points more, but overall, just two champions going at it for 2 hours. Damn enjoyable.
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