2022 Prediction Blowout Postmorten: The Good, the Bad & the Mugu

About those preseason ranking predictions... sometimes you "Iga," but sometimes you "Mugu."

And not the good sort of "Mugu"-ing, either. The bad kind. Like, the *really* bad kind. The kind only a Mugu could do.

via GIPHY

If we'd known that Iga Swiatek was going to assume the #1 ranking early in the season, maybe it'd been easier to predict the best performances in 2022's majors. As it was, three of the biggest titles of the year (Ash Barty at the AO, Iga in Paris and New York) were claimed by the reigning world #1.

My picks for the first-timers in the latter stages of majors didn't quite work out. While Elena Rybakina (WI) was the lone maiden slam champ, she was joined by Danielle Collins (AO), Coco Gauff (RG) and Ons Jabeur (WI) as other first-time finalists. In addition to Rybakina, Jabeur and Gauff, Dasha Kasatkina (RG), Martina Trevisan (RG), Tatjana Maria (WI) and Caroline Garcia (US) were the newcomers who made their initial final four breakthroughs in '22.

I hit on just *one* (Gauff), but will definitely continue to stand by my Samsonova pick for the upcoming '23 campaign. The past season's not-exactly-stellar slam picks...

FIRST-TIME SLAM WINNER: Paula Badosa/ESP
FIRST-TIME SLAM FINALISTS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Maria Sakkari/GRE
FIRST-TIME SLAM SEMIFINALISTS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Coco Gauff/USA, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS


All right, to put a better taste in the mouth, it's good to remember that the Blowout (and other pre-2022 posts) *also* included...

[in the regional "Keep an eye on..." categories]
SOUTH AMERICA: "Beatriz Haddad Maia's (BRA) climb back to WTA relevance five years after reaching her maiden final" (she finished in the Top 15 in *both* singles and doubles)

ASIA/PACIFIC: "Alex Eala (PHI) joining the list of players consistently creating 'first woman from her nation to...' moments..." (she won the U.S. Open juniors, becoming the first Filipina girls' slam champ)


WESTERN EUROPE: "The Fruhvirtova sisters (Linda, 16 & Brenda, 15; CZE)" (self-explanatory, if you were playing attention)

EASTERN EUROPE: "The imminent rise of Marta Kostyuk (UKR) in '22" (well, I think her year counts as that on some level, right?)

[in the regional "Buy/Sell/Hold" lists]
NORTH AMERICA (BUY): Alycia Parks' (USA) future - (yep... good deal. You're welcome.)

NORTH AMERICA (SELL): Serena's quest for #24 (Time is still undefeated, which Serena wasn't in '22)

LATIN AMERICA (SELL): Monica Puig/PUR (newly retired newlywed)

ASIA/PACIFIC (BUY): Zheng Qinwen/CHN (though I didn't push it hard enough)

RUSSIAN/EASTERN EUROPE (HOLD): Anna Blinkova/RUS (returned to the Top 100 and won maiden tour title in Cluj)

RUSSIAN/EASTERN EUROPE (BUY): Daria Snigur/UKR ('19 Wimbledon jr. champ made slam MD debut, upsetting Simona Halep in the 1st Round... and that was only the start of the Romanian's problems in NYC)


WESTERN EUROPE (BUY): Jule Niemeier/GER and Sara Bejlek/CZE (the German reached the Wimbledon QF, and it feels like that's just the beginning, while the 16-year old Czech won four ITF titles and the RG jr. doubles)

Of course...

WESTERN EUROPE (Regional eye...): "Sara Sorribes Tormo (ESP) starting to win more of those marathon matches than she loses"
NORTH AMERICA (BUY): Ann Li

...Sorribes Tormo, a season after winning her maiden tour title and upsetting #1 Barty at the Olympics, went just 2-3 in majors, reached no finals and fell from #36 to #67 in the season-ending rankings. She again specialized in marathon matches, playing in two of the four longest tour matches of '22 -- and this time she *did* win them (so there's that), defeating Osorio (Cleveland 1r) and Liu (Toronto 1r), only to lose her *next* match on both occasions.

In 2021, Li won her first tour title and reached two finals in a Top 50 campaign. While she *did* post her first Top 10 win (Kontaveit/Miami) she was under .500 on the year and fell from #47 to below #130 by season's end.

As usual, some predictions were a grab bag of good (to be savored) and bad (to be immediately forgotten... except when not).

FIRST-TIME SLAM ROUND OF 16's: Clara Burel/FRA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Ann Li/USA, Tereza Martincova/CZE, Jule Niemeier/GER, Camila Osorio/COL, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Clara Tauson/DEN, Jil Teichmann/SUI

...an aggravating 3 of 13, with nods to Kudermetova (RG QF/US 4r), Teichmann (RG 4r) and Niemeier (WI QF).

FIRST-TIME WTA CHAMPIONS: Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Clara Burel/FRA, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Shelby Rogers/USA, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Ajla Tomljanovic/AUS, Wang Xinyu/CHN

...maiden wins from Bouzkova (Prague), Fruhvirtova (Chennai) and Sherif (Parma), with a near-miss from Juvan (Strasbourg RU vs. Kerber). Rogers reached her biggest career final (San Jose).

FIRST-TIME WTA FINALISTS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Jule Niemeier/GER, Nuria Párrizas Díaz/ESP, Diane Parry/FRA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Viktoriya Tomova/BUL, Wang Xinyu/CHN

...three (Juvan/Strasbourg, Bronzetti/Palermi, Fruhvirtova/Chennai).



1.Olivia Gadecki, AUS - when she actually played, the Aussie made progress, but her anti-vax sentiments limited her chances as she missed out on her chance at an AO wild card. Playing from behind, she ultimately reached three ITF finals (all in AUS) , and lost in RG/WI qualifying, but cracked the Top 200 by year's end.

2.Anastasia Gasanova, RUS - better left unsaid, right? I mean, when you suddenly take a pro-war, Putin propaganda-spewing position seven months *after* the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine you're pretty much aggressively putting yourself on an island. That said, I guess she *did* make her name known.


3.Zheng Qinwen, CHN - why did I not have her at #1???? That said, at least she was here. Zheng was quite possibly *the* young player to watch in '22, finishing at #25 (her 118-spot rise was the biggest of the Top 50), reaching her maiden tour final (Tokyo), winning a 125 crown, upsetting Halep in Paris (where she reached the second week and pushed Iga) and ulitmately going 8-4 in majors (winning her debut match in all four). Zheng's two Top 10 wins (Jabeur/Badosa) are surely the first of (many) many.

4.Daniela Vismane, LAT - made her slam Q-round debut at Wimbledon. (Swing! And a miss.)

5.Alycia Parks, USA - by season's end, Parks was showing signs that she might be the next big Bannerette riser. In Ostrava!!!, she posted her first Top 20 (Pliskova) and Top 10 (Sakkari) wins in back-to-back matches en route to the QF, and ended the event with her first tour WD title. 2022 also saw Parks win 125 and $100K doubles titles, and reach two $60K singles finals.

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 5 JUMPS (i.e. not necessarily season-ending, for all jumps): Paula Badosa/ESP, Anett Kontaveit/EST, Maria Sakkari/GRE

...Badosa, Kontaveit and Sakkari all made their Top 5 debuts in February

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 10 JUMPS: Coco Gauff/USA, Jessie Pegula/USA, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS

...Pegula made the jump in June, Gauff in August. If Rybakina had gotten points for her Wimbledon, she *would* have in July.

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 20 JUMPS: Danielle Collins/USA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Katerina Siniakova/CZE, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Jil Teichmann/SUI, Tamara Zidansek/SLO

...Collins and Fernandez (both in February), Kudermetova (August) and (after a slow start) Samsonova (October)

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 50 JUMPS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Clara Burel/FRA, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anhelina Kalinina/UKR, Greet Minnen/BEL, Jule Niemeier/GER, Camila Osorio/COL, Jasmine Paolini/ITA, Nuria Párrizas Díaz/ESP, Bernarda Pera/USA, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Wang Xinyu/CHN

...yes on Kalinina, Osorio, Paolini, Parrizas Diaz, Pera, Potapova and Sherif. It's still hard to believe that Juvan (who has only topped out at #58 since she can't follow up her sometimes-stunning moments with even mediocre ones) has yet to crack the Top 50. Niemeier (#61 high) is maybe one good week in '23 from the leap.

NEWCOMERS OF THE YEAR: Hailey Baptiste/USA, Clara Burel/FRA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Diane Parry/FRA, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

...I'd give thumbs up to the picks of Fruhvirtova, Zheng, Niemeier and Noskova with ease. Meanwhile, Parry defeated DC Barbora Krejcikova at Roland Garros and later reached her first tour-level SF. Wang Xiyu reached the Cluj semis, a 125 final, U.S. Open 3rd Rd. (def. #3 Sakkari) and two $100K finals, while Wang Xinyu won a $100K crown and won her first slam MD match (US). Baptiste qualified at two majors.

COMEBACKS: CZE BJK Team, Fiona Ferro/FRA, Jiske Griffioen/NED (WC), Simona Halep/ROU, Sofia Kenin/USA, Ana Konjuh/CRO, Dasha Saville/AUS, Donna Vekic/CRO

...Saville fell as low as low as #627 in February, then nearly returned to the Top 50 (ending at #53) before injuring her knee. Halep returned to the Top 10, but must now fight a positive doping test. Griffioen (former WC #1) returned to slam play for the first time since '17, reaching the Wimbledon/US semis and Masters doubles final (she's back in the WC Top 4 after ranking there from 2010-16). Vekic is back in the Top 50 (though she actually accomplished less and finished lower than in '21), while Konjuh won her first slam match since 2017 (and, in November, her biggest WS crown since '15 at a $60K challenger).

JUNIORS TO WATCH: Mirra Andreeva/RUS, Nikola Bartunkova/CZE, Sara Bejlek/CZE, Lizzy de Greef/NED (WC), Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Linda Klimovicova/CZE, Clervie Ngounoue/USA, Solana Sierra/ARG, Johanne Christine Svendsen/DEN

...all good picks, I think. B.Fruhvirtova and M.Andreeva, both the younger siblings of tennis playing sisters, won ITF titles before turning 15. Fruhvirtova won more (8) on the circuit in '22 than anyone, while Andreeva has (so far) won four. Bejlek won three ITF crowns and was the youngest player in the U.S. Open women's draw (as a qualifier), after having reached the RG girls' semis and won the GD in Paris. Ngounoue won the AO girls' doubles, reached two ITF singles finals and led Team USA to the Junior BJK Cup crown. Sierra reached the RG girls' singles SF, won three ITF titles and was a BJK Cup Heart Award nominee for her performance for ARG.

The rest -- Bartunkova, Klimovicova and Svendsen -- all won J1 or ITF titles.

De Greef was the wheelchair Junior of the Year, and reached a pro Series 1 final as a teenager.

Some miscellaneous quick hits that went pretty well (or close to it)...

Three Russians reach the Final 8 of a single major, with two facing off for a semifinal berth
...not three, but two. And Kasatkina and Kudermetova faced off in the RG quarterfinals. ===============================================

Mayar Sherif is the first Egyptian woman to win a tour title (doing so in both singles and doubles in '22)

...she did it in Parma. In singles, anyway (and won three 125 titles, too -- her four career wins are the most all-time). She reached a tour-level WD final (she's now 0-2), but won a 125 WD crown (the first Egyptian... you know the drill). =============================================== Liudmila Samsonova: reaches a slam SF and wins multiple titles on two surfaces, recording Top 10 wins in two different majors as she becomes the highest-ranked Russian on tour

...was the closest to knocking off Swiatek (in Stuttgart) during her 37-match run. After a slow start, she reached the U.S. Round of 16 and won three titles, putting together a 13-match streak of her own (behind only Iga in' 22).

Jessie Pegula: collects a win over a world #1/#2 at a major, is the top-ranked U.S. woman for at least a third of the season, during which she reaches a slam QF and wins her biggest career title (topping her International, now 250, win in Washington in '19) while reaching three finals. But she doesn't end the year as the U.S. #1, and sees her final ranking slip from her #18 spot at the close of '21.

...Pegula reached three slam QF (AO/RG/US, losing to Swiatek in Paris and NY), won her biggest career title (Guadalajara 1000, def. four straight past slam champs) in her second final of the year, and had 1000 runs of RU/2 SF/QF. She ended the year at #3 in singles, #6 in doubles (winning five times). She took over the U.S. #1 ranking for good in July, and as December ends will have been there for 27 weeks in '22 (Collins was second w/ 22).

Katerina Siniakova: adds singles success (2 titles, her first since '17) to her doubles prowess, winning on multiple surfaces (and even defeating doubles partner Krejcikova in a singles final).

...as well as winning three majors with Krejcikova (and a tour-best 6 WD titles in another #1-ranked season), Siniakova won in Portoroz, her first tour WS crown since '17. She added a $100K ITF singles win, as well. =============================================== A player ranked outside the Top 300 wins a tour singles title, the lowest-ranked champion since 2001 and the second lowest-ranked (not counting unranked players) winner in tour history

...now quite, but #237 Tatjana Maria won in Bogota, making her the fifth-lowest ranked champ since '01.

#298 Nadia Podoroska reached a tour SF, while #433 Nuria Brancaccio reached a WTA 125 final. =============================================== Yui Kamiji fails to reach the SF in a non-Wimbledon major for the first time since the 2012 RG. Though she's not had success on the grass, the world #2 has reached fifteen straight singles finals at the AO, RG and US and won at least her opening QF (1r) match in Melbourne, Paris and New York in the last twenty-four majors.

...Kamiji *did* fall in the AO quarterfinals, ending her non-SW19 streak. She finally reached the Wimbledon singles final, through.

If not for #1 Diede de Groot, Kamiji's season would have been eye-popping. She led Japan to its first wheelchair Team Cup crown. While she was 0-7 vs. de Groot in '22, falling in three slam finals and in the season-ending championships decider, she was 43-1 against everyone else, winning her final 38 non-Diede contests.

No wonder Yui looks more and more irritated/frustrated during those slam trophy ceremonies... if not for de Groot, Kamiji would have to buy a new home to house all her (unclaimed) trophies. =============================================== A former singles #1 and/or slam finalist announces that she is coming out of retirement. Meanwhile, (at least) one former slam winner announces her retirement at season's end.

...well, Aga Radwanska returned in the Wimbledon Legends competition (and, yes, she still pulls off those sort of shots) alongside a returning Jelena Jankovic. Martina Hingis is going to play in a December exhibition event in South Africa (by the way, her Twitter bio still says "professional Swiss tennis player").

The rest (so far) has been a bonanza, as Ash Barty (in March), Kim Clijsters (finally), Jankovic (officially) and Serena announced their retirements. Meanwhile, Sania Mirza did, as well, though since she missed most of the year with an injury *might* be seen early in '23. Also gone: Olympic Gold medalist Monica Puig, Sam Stosur (in singles, at least), Lucie Hradecka, Peng Shuai (well, you know), Kveta Peschke, Laura Robson, Andrea Sestini Hlavackova and Katarina Srebotnik all walked away. One suspects Elena Vesnina is *official* now, too.

Oh, and Svetalana Kuznetsova hasn't played in a *long* time, and now Angelique Kerber is out having a baby (so, who knows?).

Venus, to date, plays on. =============================================== Esther Vergeer is announced as a member of the 2023 class of the International Tennis Hall of Fame.

...well, she's finally nominated, and if the greatest and most dominant player WC tennis has ever seen *doesn't* go in (she'd have to wait four *more* years otherwise for the next "wheelchair eligible year"... which is a whole *other* discussion) then Wheelchair Tennis should just declare itself independent, demand the removal of all past WC honorees from Newport, and start another Hall of Fame down the street. ===============================================





Then there was this...


...needless to say, my "Muguruza eyes" were bigger than my "Muguruza stomach."

Fresh off the Spaniard's WTAF title run in '21, I want *all in* on Garbi, saying she'd hold "the #1 ranking in-season for the first time since 2017, reaching 2 slam finals, winning her third major and reaching at least the Round of 16 at all four slams for the second time ('17) in her career."

Umm, nope. She was just 12-17 on the season, going 3-4 in majors (with two of her three wins coming in the final '22 slam in NYC).

Oh, but (amazingly) I wasn't finished. I added...

She'll "lead the tour in finals, topping her career-best (5) '21 season total and matching her best-ever three titles in a single season from a year ago.

Muguruza reached zero finals -- or semifinals (and played in only *three* QF - one each in January, February and September) -- as she eventually plummeted from #3 to #56, her worst season-ending ranking since 2013.

Yep.

via GIPHY

As for the full preseason '22 predictions... 2022 Prediction Blowout

All for now.