2022 WTA Prediction Blowout
Yes, the "crazy women's tennis tour" is back for another trippy trek to various (non-Chinese) cities around the globe, while the powers that be simultaneously huddle in the back room formulating Plans "B" and "C," just in case, as the WTA plays into an incredible *third* season (and counting?) impacted by the Covid pandemic. The numskullian antics of some of the top players on the men's tour during the continually-changing "new normal" have been largely (and gratefully) avoided on the women's side. But, fear not, the WTA is, quite simply, never short on irresistibly controversial and/or headline-grabbing topics (see Osaka and Peng) and stunning accomplishments (see the recent list of slam champions) to keep the conversation going non-stop for the next eleven months. It's just a matter of who, what, when and where... surely, 2022 will *not* disappoint. So, as things are already underway in the new season, here's Backspin's annual January attempt to peer into the future and predict the news before the news takes place.
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 10 JUMPS: Coco Gauff/USA, Jessie Pegula/USA, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 20 JUMPS: Danielle Collins/USA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Katerina Siniakova/CZE, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Jil Teichmann/SUI, Tamara Zidansek/SLO
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 50 JUMPS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Clara Burel/FRA, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anhelina Kalinina/UKR, Greet Minnen/BEL, Jule Niemeier/GER, Camila Osorio/COL, Jasmine Paolini/ITA, Nuria Párrizas Díaz/ESP, Bernarda Pera/USA, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Wang Xinyu/CHN
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 100 JUMPS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Dalma Galfi/HUN, Rebeka Masarova/ESP, Caty McNally/USA, Jule Niemeier/GER, Diane Parry/FRA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Storm Sanders/AUS, Daria Snigur/UKR, Harmony Tan/FRA, Viktoriya Tomova/BUL, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Zheng Qinwen/CHN
FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 150 JUMPS: Hailey Baptiste/USA, Alex Eala/PHI, Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva/AND, Linda Noskova/CZE, Daniela Vismane/LAT
...stepping away from the recently successful PWNYK trend of going with new members of the Russian Tennis Renaissance, I'll go with Gadecki for '22. Gadecki already threw her name onto the WTA landscape in '21 *on* the court, and managed to do so *off* it for the new season, as well, before the calendar had even flipped over to '22... but I'll keep her atop this year's list after having previously settled on her as the choice (even if I may ultimately wish I'd gone with the Hordette I have at #2).
???? Wildcard Olivia Gadecki became the first unranked teenager to defeat a Top 10 player in 24 years ??
— wta (@WTA) February 14, 2021
More on her upset at the #PhillipIslandWTA --> https://t.co/l31o4xLGIT pic.twitter.com/cFqyAhPItf
A year ago, the then 18-year old Aussie was one of the home nation's newsmakers Down Under, making her tour debut in the Gippsland event and then turning her maiden tour level MD victory into a significant one when (playing without an official ranking) she upset '20 AO champ and #4-ranked Sofia Kenin. Gadecki backed up her progress over the course of the '21 season, winning her first pro title ($15K) in Antalya in May, sweeping the s/d ($25K) in Vigo, ESP in August and ultimately reaching eleven ITF circuit finals (2-2 singles, 5-2 doubles) on the season, ending the year in the Australian Top 10 at #238 in the rankings. Gadecki, mentored by world #1 and fellow Queenslander Ash Barty, was set to make still more headway *this* January, as she'd surely have gotten a series of WC in multiple events in Australia and likely would have made her slam debut in Melbourne via a Tennis Australia free pass. But the teenager's unwillingness to be vaccinated, even after great urging from TA officials (but not Barty, who praised her "you be you" take -- yadayadayada -- and said she wouldn't try to change her mind), will keep her off tour on home soil in '22. It seems like a true lost opportunity, for both women.
WTA #1 Ash Barty mentors Olivia Gadecki, a fellow Queenslander, so it’s unsurprising she’s supportive while Gadecki gets criticized for derailing her career by not getting vaccinated.
— Ben Rothenberg (@BenRothenberg) December 19, 2021
Barty goes overboard by saying she’s “proud” of her decision, though.https://t.co/XFbMW2rVE1
Of course, in immediate retrospect, *this* whole situation has become a minor plotline in comparison to the "clown show" decision by several Australian bodies to destroy the credibility and integrity of the '22 event, tournament, TA and Victorian and Australian governments when it comes to decisions of public health by granting a (cough-cough) "medical exemption" to the unvaccinated men's world #1 after having spent weeks and months standing on principle and the concept of rules when it's come to every other player in the prospective field (not to mention the Aussie populace), many of whom either didn't go to Australia at all or were prevented from playing because they had taken the "wrong" vaccine. If the sport had any collective order and self-respect the majority of the fields of the men's and women's draw would declare a boycott of the tournament unless Novak Djokovic was removed from the draw. But we know that's not going to happen, and more likely a third will praise him and ask to pose for selfies, while most of the rest don't say a word at all. Anyway... Gadecki remains on schedule to make another large leap in level on play in '22, the process will just be delayed and a bit.
2.Anastasia Gasanova, RUS
...had one of 2021's first huge upsets when she took out Karolina Pliskova in her debut tour event in Abu Dhabi. The 22-year old reached her first WTA QF (Saint Petersburg) in March, defeating Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (saving MP), then overcame being MP down again vs. Jil Teichmann in the Translyvania Open (her third Top 50 win) as she climbed inside the Top 150 by late season. After having great ITF success as a teenager (going 5-0 in finals from 2014-16), Gasanova has been just 1-6 since, with her last final appearance coming in October '19. She's already started '22 with an upset of Elina Svitolina, too. 3.Zheng Qinwen, CHN
...the 19-year is the far lesser known of China's three young (after 20-year olders Wang Xinyu and Wang Xiyu) tour climbers. Zheng made her tour debut last year in Palermo, notching a big win over Liudmila Samsonova. She's yet to make her slam debut, but has compiled a career 7-0 record in ITF singles finals (w/ '21 title match victories over L.Fruhvitova, Krunic and Trevisan) as she nearly reached the Top 125.
4.Daniela Vismane, LAT
...the 21-year old is one the first young Latvians (along w/ Kamilla Bartone and Darja Semenistaja) to come up in the shadow of Alona Ostapenko's success. A season ago, Vismane won her biggest title ($25K), reached a $60K SF & QF, took Varvara Gracheva to three sets in November, then WTA 125 champ Vitalia Diatchenko to a 3rd set TB in the early rounds in Angers in December.
...Parks made her tour MD debut in the Charleston 250 last year. In her slam debut at the U.S. Open vs. Olga Danilovic, she tied Venus Williams' tournament record for a woman with a 129 mph serve.
==PREVIOUS "PWNYK" LISTS==
-2017-
1.Jana Fett, CRO
2.Dalma Galfi, HUN
-2018-
Viktoria Kuzmova, SVK
-2019-
1.Kaja Juvan, SLO
2.Ivana Jorovic, SRB
3.Katie Boulter, GBR
4.Fiona Ferro, FRA
5.Viktoriia Dema, UKR
-2020-
1.Varvara Gracheva, RUS
2.Elisabetta Cocciaretto, ITA
3.Liudmila Samsonova, RUS
4.Hailey Baptiste, USA
5.Usue Arconada, USA
-2021-
1.Kamilla Rakhimova, RUS
2.Katrina Scott, USA
3.Carole Monnet, FRA
4.Robin Montgomery, USA
5.Matilda Mutavdzic, GBR
NEWCOMERS OF THE YEAR: Hailey Baptiste/USA, Clara Burel/FRA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Diane Parry/FRA, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Zheng Qinwen/CHN
MOST IMPROVED PLAYERS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Dalma Galfi/HUN, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Priscilla Hon/AUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, Katerina Siniakova/CZE (s)
SURPRISE PLAYERS: Ekaterine Gorgodze/GEO, Alycia Parks/USA, Jessika Ponchet/FRA, Harmony Tan/AUS, Vera Zvonareva/RUS (s)
COMEBACKS: CZE BJK Team, Fiona Ferro/FRA, Jiske Griffioen/NED (WC), Simona Halep/ROU, Sofia Kenin/USA, Ana Konjuh/CRO, Dasha Saville/AUS, Donna Vekic/CRO
ITF ACHIEVERS: Elina Avanesyan/RUS, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro/ESP, Maria Carle/ARG, Alex Eala/PHI, Dea Herdželaš/BIH, Linda Noskova/CZE, Nastasja Schunk/GER, Darja Semenistaja/LAT, Daria Snigur/UKR
JUNIORS TO WATCH: Mirra Andreeva/RUS, Nikola Bartunkova/CZE, Sara Bejlek/CZE, Lizzy de Greef/NED (WC), Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Linda Klimovicova/CZE, Clervie Ngounoue/USA, Solana Sierra/ARG, Johanne Christine Svendsen/DEN
COACH OF THE YEAR: Jorge Garcia (Badosa), Alessandro Dumitrache (Samsonova), Talyna Beiko (Kostyuk), Ricardo Sanchez (Osorio), Corey Gauff (Gauff), Jorge Fernandez (Fernandez), Henner Nehles (Li), Nicolas Almagro (Collins)
FIRST-TIME SLAM WINNER: Paula Badosa/ESP
— ??BTG?? (@btg_tornos) December 21, 2021
FIRST-TIME SLAM FINALISTS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Maria Sakkari/GRE
FIRST-TIME SLAM SEMIFINALISTS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Coco Gauff/USA, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS
FIRST-TIME SLAM QUARTERFINALISTS: Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Camila Osorio/COL, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS
FIRST-TIME SLAM ROUND OF 16's: Clara Burel/FRA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Ann Li/USA, Tereza Martincova/CZE, Jule Niemeier/GER, Camila Osorio/COL, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Clara Tauson/DEN, Jil Teichmann/SUI
NOTABLE FIRST-TIME SLAM 1st ROUND WINNERS: Anna Bondar/HUN, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Dalma Galfi/HUN, Ekaterine Gorgodze/GEO, Jule Niemeier/GER, Alycia Parks/USA, Storm Sanders/AUS, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Maryna Zanevska/BEL
NOTABLE FIRST-TIME SLAM MD SINGLES APPEARANCES: Anna Bondar/HUN, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Alex Eala/PHI, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Victoria Jiménez Kasintseva/AND, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Daniela Seguel/CHI, Zheng Qinwen/CHN
FIRST-TIME WTA CHAMPIONS: Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Clara Burel/FRA, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Shelby Rogers/USA, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Ajla Tomljanovic/AUS, Wang Xinyu/CHN
FIRST-TIME WTA FINALISTS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Jule Niemeier/GER, Nuria Párrizas Díaz/ESP, Diane Parry/FRA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Viktoriya Tomova/BUL, Wang Xinyu/CHN
HISTORIC FIRST-TIME WTA SEMIFINALISTS: Alex Eala/PHI (first Filipina), Victoria Jiménez Kasintseva/AND (first Andorran)
HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER TITLE: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Tereza Martincova/CZE, Nuria Párrizas Díaz/ESP
HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER FINAL: Greet Minnen/BEL, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Olivia Gadecki/AUS
2021 TOP 10 | 2022 thumbnail sketch... |
---|---|
#1 Barty | ...reaches slam final and QF+ at 2 other majors. Doesn't go wire-to-wire at #1 this time around, but shares tour lead in titles, with a tour-best 3 coming at the 1000 level. |
#2 Sabalenka | ...fails to reach her maiden slam final, but maintains a Top 5 ranking all season long and at least once falls to the eventual champ at a major after holding a late lead (maybe even a MP) in the contest. Has 3 slam QF results and wins 3 tour titles (2 1000). |
#3 Muguruza | ...holds the #1 ranking in-season for the first time since 2017, reaching 2 slam finals, winning her third major and reaching at least the Round of 16 at all for the second time ('17) in her career. Leads the tour in finals, topping her career-best 5 final '21 season and matching her best-ever three titles in a season from a year ago. |
#4 Ka.Pliskova | ...reaches another slam final and wins her first tour title with Sascha Bajin as coach (first since Brisbane '20). |
#5 Krejcikova | ...returns to the RG semis, and wins at least one major doubles title. Combines to win at least 8 WS/WD titles on the year. |
#6 Sakkari | ...becomes the first Greek woman to reach a slam singles final, and wins multiple singles titles in a season for the first time. |
#7 Kontaveit | ...wins 3 more 500+ titles, but doesn't necessarily carry over her regular season success to the slam stage, reaching her second career slam QF and a 4th Round, but nothing more, falling to a lower-ranked player on both occasions. |
#8 Badosa | ...joins Muguruza as a slam winner, marking just the second time (1994) in which two Spanish woman have claimed major titles in the same season. Ties Barty for the most '22 singles titles, winning on three surfaces (hard court, red and green clay), and enters the WTAF with a shot to finish as the season-ending #1. |
#9 Swiatek | ...again reaches the Round of 16 at all four majors, with a pair of QF+ results (one coming once again in Paris, where she reaches the SF). Wins multiple singles titles (including her first career grass crown), as well as her first WD major. |
#10 Jabeur | ...reaches a slam QF for the third straight year, and her first career 1000 level final. Wins her second career title, but at a small tour event. |
2022 SLAM SINGLES FINALISTS: Paula Badosa, Ash Barty, Simona Halep, Garbine Muguruza (2), Naomi Osaka, Karolina Pliskova, Maria Sakkari
2022 SINGLES FINAL LEADERS: Garbine Muguruza
2022 SINGLES MATCH WIN LEADER: Paula Badosa
2022 S+D MATCH WIN LEADER: Elise Mertens
1 = S.Williams singles finals (2018-21: 2-3-1-0)...PUSH
1 = Siniakova s/d title sweeps...OVER
2 = Krejcikova s/d (or s+mx) title sweeps...UNDER
2 = Halep singles titles (2018-21: 3-1-3-0)...PUSH
2 = Fernandez slam Round of 16+ results...OVER
3 = Raducanu slam Round of 16+ results...UNDER
3 = Andreescu injury-related event w/d or ret....PUSH
4 = Different Russian women WS champions (2018-21: 4-0-1-3)...OVER
5 = Different U.S. women WS champions (2018-21: 1-6-3-4)...OVER
6 = Barty combined s/d titles (2018-21: 6-5-1-6)...UNDER
6 = Age 30+ Singles Champions (2018-21: 7-1-2-6)...UNDER
7 = Teen Singles Champions (2018-21: 2-7-1-8)...OVER
8 = V.Williams singles wins (2018-21: 17-19-1-3)...OVER
* - KG Montjane wins her first slam title (likely in doubles) * - Dana Mathewson reaches her first slam singles semi outside of the U.S. Open (2019) * - I was going to predict former #1 Jiske Griffioen would play in her first slam singles MD since 2017, but since she just announced she was given a WC into the Australian Open, I'll now go with her notching her first match win since the '17 AO and reaching her first major final (singles or doubles) since that same season * - Yui Kamiji fails to reach the SF in a non-Wimbledon major for the first time since the 2012 RG. Though she's not had success on the grass, the world #2 has reached fifteen straight singles finals at the AO, RG and US and won at least her opening QF (1r) match in Melbourne, Paris and New York in the last twenty-four majors.
**BACKSPIN WEEK 1 PLAYERS-OF-THE-WEEK**
2002 Venus Williams, USA
2003 Serena Williams, USA
2004 Lindsay Davenport/USA, Eleni Daniilidou/GRE (co-PoW)
2005 Elena Dementieva, RUS
2006 Lucie Safarova, CZE
2007 Dinara Safina, RUS
2008 Li Na, CHN
2009 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2010 Kim Clijsters, BEL
2011 Vera Zvonareva, RUS
2012 Petra Kvitova, CZE
2013 Serena Williams, USA
2014 Serena Williams, USA
2015 Maria Sharapova/RUS, Simona Halep/ROU (co-PoW)
2016 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2017 Karolina Pliskova, CZE
2018 Simona Halep, ROU
2019 Julia Goerges, GER
2020 Serena Williams, USA
2021 Aryna Sabalenka, BLR
**CAREER WEEK 1 TITLES - active**
3...Karolina Pliskova, CZE
3...Serena Williams, USA
2...Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2...Aryna Sabalenka, BLR
2...Venus Williams, USA
1...Ekaterina Alexandrova, RUS
1...Kim Clijsters, BEL
1...Lauren Davis, USA
1...Simona Halep, ROU
1...Kaia Kanepi, EST
1...Petra Kvitova, CZE
1...Katerina Siniakova, CZE
1...Katarina Srebotnik, SLO
1...Sloane Stephens, USA
1...Elina Svitolina, UKR
1...Yanina Wickmayer, BEL
**MOST RECENT FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN JANUARY**
=2014 Week 2=
Tsvetana Pironkova (SYDNEY), Garbine Muguruza (HOBART)
=2017 Week 1=
Katerina Siniakova (SHENZHEN), Lauren Davis (AUCKLAND)
=2017 Week 2=
Elise Mertens (HOBART)
=2019 Week 2=
Sonia Kenin (HOBART)
=2020 Week 1=
Ekaterina Alexandrova (SHENZHEN)
**MOST RECENT FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN WEEK 1**
2006 Marion Bartoli (Auckland) - first final
2009 Victoria Azarenka (Brisbane) - had been 0-4 in finals
2017 Katerina Siniakova (Shenzhen) - had been 0-2 in finals
2017 Lauren Davis (Auckland) - had been 0-2 in finals
2020 Ekaterina Alexandrova (Shenzhen) - second career final
**MOST RECENT w/ MULTIPLE FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN WEEK 1**
=2000=
Silvija Talaja (Gold Coast)
Anne Kremer (Auckland)
=2017=
Katerina Siniakova (Shenzhen)
Lauren Davis (Auckland)
Last day of 2021, and I’m spending it on the tennis court.
— Billie Jean King (@BillieJeanKing) January 1, 2022
So fortunate to still play this game.
Wishing you all a year of doing what you love.#HAPPYNEWYEAR2022 pic.twitter.com/tncHIChVZ8
3 Comments:
"You do you" it's the same as "I don't care if you murder someone". Hope Barty flops this season, cause I think we shouldn't support people with this kind of selfish and genocide mentality.
Vikhlyantseva gets Sputnik V vaccine and can't play, while Djokovic does? I smell a lawsuit.
Sabalenka had 18 DF in her loss to Juvan. Curious if she plays next week.
AO seeding is straightforward for Top 4. There will be quarters for Barty, Sabalenka, Muguruza and Krejcikova. Osaka is this year's Serena, the one that should make someones quarter tougher.
9-16 Halep trying to get there.
17-24 Azarenka might need another win or two to lock that down.
25-32 Last 2 spots still have a number of contenders with Vondrousova, Teichmann, Sorribes Tormo, Rogers, Cirstea, Golubic, Tauson and Tomljanovic all alive.
Pegula is the name that jumps out at me because of the rank. Due to her 2020 Auckland points coming off, plus her highest ranked event being 2021 Australian Open, it will be tough for her ranking to go up. She might drop to 30 by March.
Kung has CH of 144.
Another odd ranking thing? Brengle has a massive amount of ITF points. Some still from 2019, since they only had 50% drop.
Now your questions?
1 = S.Williams singles finals (2018-21: 2-3-1-0)...Under because I really only see Miami, Wimbledon and US Open.
1 = Siniakova s/d title sweeps...Under as I see 5-6 doubles partners.
2 = Krejcikova s/d (or s+mx) title sweeps...Push because of 250 events on clay.
2 = Halep singles titles (2018-21: 3-1-3-0)...Under only because of health.
2 = Fernandez slam Round of 16+ results...Push only because she isn't seeded 16th yet.
3 = Raducanu slam Round of 16+ results...Under, but getting 2 would be great.
3 = Andreescu injury-related event w/d or ret....Under because we have no clue when her season will start.
4 = Different Russian women WS champions (2018-21: 4-0-1-3)...Over because I have been touting Zakharova and there are a massive amount of highly ranked Russians.
5 = Different U.S. women WS champions (2018-21: 1-6-3-4)...Under, but if Keys and Stephens get hot, I would gladly be wrong.
6 = Barty combined s/d titles (2018-21: 6-5-1-6)...Under but I can see 4.
6 = Age 30+ Singles Champions (2018-21: 7-1-2-6)...Under because Kanepi will win 100 or 125K.
7 = Teen Singles Champions (2018-21: 2-7-1-8)...Push. Number seems high, but Tauson is still 19.
8 = V.Williams singles wins (2018-21: 17-19-1-3)...Under because i'm not convinced that she will play 8 matches.
3 of my own:
2= MD slam wins for Daria Snigur- Push
2= Wins on clay for Allison Riske- Under
2= Wins on grass for Naomi Osaka- Over
N-
To put it bluntly. And it is a *very* bad take on the whole thing by Barty, especially after she stayed away from home for nearly a year. I hesitate to hear what her comments on Djokovic might be.
I know she likes being liked, and seems reluctant to say anything about anything that she thinks might get pushback. But sometimes the "even Republicans buy sneakers" notion just doesn't apply.
Meanwhile, kudos to the "Brad Raffensperger of Australia," whomever they may be, who ultimately held the line at the airport in Melbourne and saved Tennis Australia, the AO, etc. from themselves. Might end up being *the* best moment of the entire tennis season, and we're only five days in.
C-
Yeah, between Tauson, Fernandez, Gauff, Raducanu and others (who'll be teenagers *all* season, or most of it), the overall numbers could be very high.
Siniakova *has* reached finals with three partners other than Krejcikova over the last three years (winning w/ Ostapenko and Krunic, losing one w/ Hradecka), so she's got the ability to do it even w/o Barbora all season long.
I factored in *one* good event for Venus where she'd get most of her wins (like, say around 4 out of about 9 total wins on the year).
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