Tuesday, January 04, 2022

2022 WTA Prediction Blowout

Seemingly against all odds, 2022 has managed to become a reality.

And you know what that means...




Yes, the "crazy women's tennis tour" is back for another trippy trek to various (non-Chinese) cities around the globe, while the powers that be simultaneously huddle in the back room formulating Plans "B" and "C," just in case, as the WTA plays into an incredible *third* season (and counting?) impacted by the Covid pandemic.

The numskullian antics of some of the top players on the men's tour during the continually-changing "new normal" have been largely (and gratefully) avoided on the women's side. But, fear not, the WTA is, quite simply, never short on irresistibly controversial and/or headline-grabbing topics (see Osaka and Peng) and stunning accomplishments (see the recent list of slam champions) to keep the conversation going non-stop for the next eleven months. It's just a matter of who, what, when and where... surely, 2022 will *not* disappoint.

So, as things are already underway in the new season, here's Backspin's annual January attempt to peer into the future and predict the news before the news takes place.



via GIFER







FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 5 JUMPS (i.e. not necessarily season-ending, for all jumps): Paula Badosa/ESP, Anett Kontaveit/EST, Maria Sakkari/GRE

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 10 JUMPS: Coco Gauff/USA, Jessie Pegula/USA, Elena Rybakina/KAZ, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 20 JUMPS: Danielle Collins/USA, Leylah Fernandez/CAN, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Katerina Siniakova/CZE, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Jil Teichmann/SUI, Tamara Zidansek/SLO

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 50 JUMPS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Clara Burel/FRA, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anhelina Kalinina/UKR, Greet Minnen/BEL, Jule Niemeier/GER, Camila Osorio/COL, Jasmine Paolini/ITA, Nuria Párrizas Díaz/ESP, Bernarda Pera/USA, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Wang Xinyu/CHN

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 100 JUMPS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Dalma Galfi/HUN, Rebeka Masarova/ESP, Caty McNally/USA, Jule Niemeier/GER, Diane Parry/FRA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Storm Sanders/AUS, Daria Snigur/UKR, Harmony Tan/FRA, Viktoriya Tomova/BUL, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 150 JUMPS: Hailey Baptiste/USA, Alex Eala/PHI, Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva/AND, Linda Noskova/CZE, Daniela Vismane/LAT


*RANKINGS PREDICTIONS*
-SELECTED SEASON-ENDING FINISHES-
Africa/Middle East/Mediterranean
1=Sakkari/GRE, 2=Jabeur/TUN, 3=Sherif/EGY
Baltics:
1=Kontaveit/EST, 2=Ostapenko/LAT, 3=Vismane/LAT
North America (s):
1=Gauff/USA, 2=Fernandez/CAN, 3=Collins/USA, 4=Pegula/USA, 5=Kenin/USA, 6=Li/USA, 7=Andreescu/CAN, 8=S.Williams/USA
North America (d):
1=Dabrowski/CAN, 2=McNally/USA, 3=Gauff/USA, 4=Mattek-Sands/USA, 5=Krawczyk/USA, 6=Olmos/MEX, 7=Fichman/CAN, 8=Carter/USA
North America (Jr.):
1=Clervie Ngounoue/USA, 2=Reese Brantmeier/USA, 3=Kayla Cross/CAN
South America (s):
1=Osorio/COL, 2=Podoroska/ARG, 3=Haddad/BRA
South America (d):
1=Guarachi/CHI, 2=Stefani/BRA, 3=Carle/ARG
---
AUS (non-Barty):
1=Tomljanovic, 2=Gadecki, 3=Sharma, 4=Saville, 5=Sanders
CHN:
1=Wang Xinyu, 2=Zhang Shuai, 3=Zheng Saisai, 4=Zheng Qinwen, 5=Wang Xiyu
CZE:
1=Ka.Pliskova, 2=Krejcikova, 3=Siniakova, 4=Vondrousova, 5=Kvitova
CZE (Jr.):
1=Brenda Fruhvirtova, 2=Sara Bejlek, 3=Nikola Bartunkova
CRO:
1=Vekic, 2=Konjuh, 3=Martic
FRA:
1=Ferro, 2=Burel, 3=Cornet, 4=Garcia, 5=Parry
ITA:
1=Paolini, 2=Bronzetti, 3=Cocciaretto, 4=Giorgi, 5=Errani
ROU (non-Halep):
1=Cristian, 2=Ruse, 3=Cirstea
RUS (s)
1=Samsonova, 2=Kasatkina, 3=V.Kudermetova, 4=Alexandrova, 5=Pavlyuchenkova
RUS (d):
1=V.Kudermetova, 2=Rakhimova, 3=Vesnina
RUS (Jr.):
1=Mirra Andreeva, 2=Anastasiia Gureva
---
20 and Under:
1=Gauff/USA, 2=Fernandez/CAN, 3=Kostyuk/UKR, 4=Osorio/COL, 5=Tauson/DEN, 6=Raducanu/GBR, 7=L.Fruhvirtova/CZE, 8=Parry/FRA, 9=Gadecki/AUS, 10=Zheng Qinwen/CHN
30 and Over:
1=Halep/ROU, 2=Ka.Pliskova/CZE, 3=Azarenka/BLR
Wheelchair:
1=de Groot/NED, 2=Kamiji/JPN, 3=Montjane/RSA, 4=Van Koot/NED, 5=Griffioen/NED





=BIGGEST 2022 RANKING FALLS=
[2021 Top 25]
#25 Jennifer Brady/USA, #17 Petra Kvitova/CZE, #19 Emma Raducanu/GBR
[2021 #26-50]
#34 Camila Giorgi/ITA, #38 Sorana Cirstea/ROU

=BIGGEST 2022 RANKING RISES=
[2021 #11-25]
#20 Simona Halep/ROU, #22 Coco Gauff/USA, #24 Leylah Fernandez/CAN
[2021 #26-50]
#39 Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, #50 Marta Kostyuk/UKR, #49 Katerina Siniakova/CZE, #47 Ann Li/USA, #36 Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, #44 Clara Tauson/DEN, #29 Danielle Collins/USA
[2021 #51-75]
#67 Donna Vekic/CRO, #55 Camila Osorio/COL, #66 Ana Konjuh/CRO, #93 Bernarda Pera/USA
[2021 #76-100]
#99 Wang Xinyu/CHN, #77 Clara Burel/FRA, #79 Varvara Gracheva/RUS, #78 Amanda Anisimova/USA, #98 Kaja Juvan/SLO
[2021 #101-150]
#145 Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, #103 Fiona Ferro/FRA, #130 Jule Niemeier/GER, #117 Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, #141 Diane Parry/FRA, #122 Dalma Galfi/HUN, #138 Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, #143 Zheng Qinwen/CHN
[2021 #151+]
#296 Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, #230 Olivia Gadecki/AUS


1.Olivia Gadecki, AUS
...stepping away from the recently successful PWNYK trend of going with new members of the Russian Tennis Renaissance, I'll go with Gadecki for '22.

Gadecki already threw her name onto the WTA landscape in '21 *on* the court, and managed to do so *off* it for the new season, as well, before the calendar had even flipped over to '22... but I'll keep her atop this year's list after having previously settled on her as the choice (even if I may ultimately wish I'd gone with the Hordette I have at #2).



A year ago, the then 18-year old Aussie was one of the home nation's newsmakers Down Under, making her tour debut in the Gippsland event and then turning her maiden tour level MD victory into a significant one when (playing without an official ranking) she upset '20 AO champ and #4-ranked Sofia Kenin. Gadecki backed up her progress over the course of the '21 season, winning her first pro title ($15K) in Antalya in May, sweeping the s/d ($25K) in Vigo, ESP in August and ultimately reaching eleven ITF circuit finals (2-2 singles, 5-2 doubles) on the season, ending the year in the Australian Top 10 at #238 in the rankings.

Gadecki, mentored by world #1 and fellow Queenslander Ash Barty, was set to make still more headway *this* January, as she'd surely have gotten a series of WC in multiple events in Australia and likely would have made her slam debut in Melbourne via a Tennis Australia free pass. But the teenager's unwillingness to be vaccinated, even after great urging from TA officials (but not Barty, who praised her "you be you" take -- yadayadayada -- and said she wouldn't try to change her mind), will keep her off tour on home soil in '22. It seems like a true lost opportunity, for both women.



Of course, in immediate retrospect, *this* whole situation has become a minor plotline in comparison to the "clown show" decision by several Australian bodies to destroy the credibility and integrity of the '22 event, tournament, TA and Victorian and Australian governments when it comes to decisions of public health by granting a (cough-cough) "medical exemption" to the unvaccinated men's world #1 after having spent weeks and months standing on principle and the concept of rules when it's come to every other player in the prospective field (not to mention the Aussie populace), many of whom either didn't go to Australia at all or were prevented from playing because they had taken the "wrong" vaccine.

If the sport had any collective order and self-respect the majority of the fields of the men's and women's draw would declare a boycott of the tournament unless Novak Djokovic was removed from the draw. But we know that's not going to happen, and more likely a third will praise him and ask to pose for selfies, while most of the rest don't say a word at all.

Anyway... Gadecki remains on schedule to make another large leap in level on play in '22, the process will just be delayed and a bit.



kosova-font


2.Anastasia Gasanova, RUS
...had one of 2021's first huge upsets when she took out Karolina Pliskova in her debut tour event in Abu Dhabi. The 22-year old reached her first WTA QF (Saint Petersburg) in March, defeating Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (saving MP), then overcame being MP down again vs. Jil Teichmann in the Translyvania Open (her third Top 50 win) as she climbed inside the Top 150 by late season. After having great ITF success as a teenager (going 5-0 in finals from 2014-16), Gasanova has been just 1-6 since, with her last final appearance coming in October '19. She's already started '22 with an upset of Elina Svitolina, too.

3.Zheng Qinwen, CHN
...the 19-year is the far lesser known of China's three young (after 20-year olders Wang Xinyu and Wang Xiyu) tour climbers. Zheng made her tour debut last year in Palermo, notching a big win over Liudmila Samsonova. She's yet to make her slam debut, but has compiled a career 7-0 record in ITF singles finals (w/ '21 title match victories over L.Fruhvitova, Krunic and Trevisan) as she nearly reached the Top 125.

4.Daniela Vismane, LAT
...the 21-year old is one the first young Latvians (along w/ Kamilla Bartone and Darja Semenistaja) to come up in the shadow of Alona Ostapenko's success. A season ago, Vismane won her biggest title ($25K), reached a $60K SF & QF, took Varvara Gracheva to three sets in November, then WTA 125 champ Vitalia Diatchenko to a 3rd set TB in the early rounds in Angers in December.

5.Alycia Parks, USA
...Parks made her tour MD debut in the Charleston 250 last year. In her slam debut at the U.S. Open vs. Olga Danilovic, she tied Venus Williams' tournament record for a woman with a 129 mph serve.


==PREVIOUS "PWNYK" LISTS==
-2017-
1.Jana Fett, CRO
2.Dalma Galfi, HUN
-2018-
Viktoria Kuzmova, SVK
-2019-
1.Kaja Juvan, SLO
2.Ivana Jorovic, SRB
3.Katie Boulter, GBR
4.Fiona Ferro, FRA
5.Viktoriia Dema, UKR
-2020-
1.Varvara Gracheva, RUS
2.Elisabetta Cocciaretto, ITA
3.Liudmila Samsonova, RUS
4.Hailey Baptiste, USA
5.Usue Arconada, USA
-2021-
1.Kamilla Rakhimova, RUS
2.Katrina Scott, USA
3.Carole Monnet, FRA
4.Robin Montgomery, USA
5.Matilda Mutavdzic, GBR









via GIPHY



NEWCOMERS OF THE YEAR: Hailey Baptiste/USA, Clara Burel/FRA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Diane Parry/FRA, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

MOST IMPROVED PLAYERS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Dalma Galfi/HUN, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Priscilla Hon/AUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Anastasia Potapova/RUS, Katerina Siniakova/CZE (s)

SURPRISE PLAYERS: Ekaterine Gorgodze/GEO, Alycia Parks/USA, Jessika Ponchet/FRA, Harmony Tan/AUS, Vera Zvonareva/RUS (s)

COMEBACKS: CZE BJK Team, Fiona Ferro/FRA, Jiske Griffioen/NED (WC), Simona Halep/ROU, Sofia Kenin/USA, Ana Konjuh/CRO, Dasha Saville/AUS, Donna Vekic/CRO

ITF ACHIEVERS: Elina Avanesyan/RUS, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro/ESP, Maria Carle/ARG, Alex Eala/PHI, Dea Herdželaš/BIH, Linda Noskova/CZE, Nastasja Schunk/GER, Darja Semenistaja/LAT, Daria Snigur/UKR

JUNIORS TO WATCH: Mirra Andreeva/RUS, Nikola Bartunkova/CZE, Sara Bejlek/CZE, Lizzy de Greef/NED (WC), Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Linda Klimovicova/CZE, Clervie Ngounoue/USA, Solana Sierra/ARG, Johanne Christine Svendsen/DEN

COACH OF THE YEAR: Jorge Garcia (Badosa), Alessandro Dumitrache (Samsonova), Talyna Beiko (Kostyuk), Ricardo Sanchez (Osorio), Corey Gauff (Gauff), Jorge Fernandez (Fernandez), Henner Nehles (Li), Nicolas Almagro (Collins)




FIRST-TIME SLAM WINNER: Paula Badosa/ESP




FIRST-TIME SLAM FINALISTS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Maria Sakkari/GRE

FIRST-TIME SLAM SEMIFINALISTS: Paula Badosa/ESP, Coco Gauff/USA, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS

FIRST-TIME SLAM QUARTERFINALISTS: Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Camila Osorio/COL, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS

FIRST-TIME SLAM ROUND OF 16's: Clara Burel/FRA, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Ann Li/USA, Tereza Martincova/CZE, Jule Niemeier/GER, Camila Osorio/COL, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Clara Tauson/DEN, Jil Teichmann/SUI

NOTABLE FIRST-TIME SLAM 1st ROUND WINNERS: Anna Bondar/HUN, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Dalma Galfi/HUN, Ekaterine Gorgodze/GEO, Jule Niemeier/GER, Alycia Parks/USA, Storm Sanders/AUS, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Maryna Zanevska/BEL

NOTABLE FIRST-TIME SLAM MD SINGLES APPEARANCES: Anna Bondar/HUN, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Alex Eala/PHI, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Olivia Gadecki/AUS, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Victoria Jiménez Kasintseva/AND, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Daniela Seguel/CHI, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

FIRST-TIME WTA CHAMPIONS: Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Clara Burel/FRA, Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Shelby Rogers/USA, Mayar Sherif/EGY, Ajla Tomljanovic/AUS, Wang Xinyu/CHN

FIRST-TIME WTA FINALISTS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Jule Niemeier/GER, Nuria Párrizas Díaz/ESP, Diane Parry/FRA, Kamilla Rakhimova/RUS, Viktoriya Tomova/BUL, Wang Xinyu/CHN

HISTORIC FIRST-TIME WTA SEMIFINALISTS: Alex Eala/PHI (first Filipina), Victoria Jiménez Kasintseva/AND (first Andorran)

HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER TITLE: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Tereza Martincova/CZE, Nuria Párrizas Díaz/ESP

HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER FINAL: Greet Minnen/BEL, Anastasia Gasanova/RUS, Olivia Gadecki/AUS




via GIPHY






2021 TOP 10 2022 thumbnail sketch...
#1 Barty ...reaches slam final and QF+ at 2 other majors. Doesn't go wire-to-wire at #1 this time around, but shares tour lead in titles, with a tour-best 3 coming at the 1000 level.
#2 Sabalenka ...fails to reach her maiden slam final, but maintains a Top 5 ranking all season long and at least once falls to the eventual champ at a major after holding a late lead (maybe even a MP) in the contest. Has 3 slam QF results and wins 3 tour titles (2 1000).
#3 Muguruza ...holds the #1 ranking in-season for the first time since 2017, reaching 2 slam finals, winning her third major and reaching at least the Round of 16 at all for the second time ('17) in her career. Leads the tour in finals, topping her career-best 5 final '21 season and matching her best-ever three titles in a season from a year ago.
#4 Ka.Pliskova ...reaches another slam final and wins her first tour title with Sascha Bajin as coach (first since Brisbane '20).
#5 Krejcikova ...returns to the RG semis, and wins at least one major doubles title. Combines to win at least 8 WS/WD titles on the year.
#6 Sakkari ...becomes the first Greek woman to reach a slam singles final, and wins multiple singles titles in a season for the first time.
#7 Kontaveit ...wins 3 more 500+ titles, but doesn't necessarily carry over her regular season success to the slam stage, reaching her second career slam QF and a 4th Round, but nothing more, falling to a lower-ranked player on both occasions.
#8 Badosa ...joins Muguruza as a slam winner, marking just the second time (1994) in which two Spanish woman have claimed major titles in the same season. Ties Barty for the most '22 singles titles, winning on three surfaces (hard court, red and green clay), and enters the WTAF with a shot to finish as the season-ending #1.
#9 Swiatek ...again reaches the Round of 16 at all four majors, with a pair of QF+ results (one coming once again in Paris, where she reaches the SF). Wins multiple singles titles (including her first career grass crown), as well as her first WD major.
#10 Jabeur ...reaches a slam QF for the third straight year, and her first career 1000 level final. Wins her second career title, but at a small tour event.


2022 SLAM SINGLES FINALISTS: Paula Badosa, Ash Barty, Simona Halep, Garbine Muguruza (2), Naomi Osaka, Karolina Pliskova, Maria Sakkari
===============================================
2022 SLAM DOUBLES TITLES: Krawczyk/Mattek-Sands, Krejcikova/Siniakova (2), Mattek-Sands/Swiatek
===============================================
2022 SLAM MIXED DOUBLES TITLES: Desirae Krawczyk (2), Samantha Stosur, Elena Vesnina
===============================================
2022 WHEELCHAIR SLAM WINNERS: Diede de Groot (4 singles), de Groot/Van Koot (3 doubles), Montjane/Shuker or a different partner (1 doubles)
===============================================

2022 IN-SEASON SINGLES #1's: Ash Barty, Garbine Muguruza
===============================================
2022 IN-SEASON DOUBLES #1's: Katerina Siniakova (incumbent), Hsieh Su-wei, Veronika Kudermetova, Elise Mertens
===============================================
2022 ROUND OF 16 AT ALL FOUR SLAMS: Coco Gauff, Garbine Muguruza, Iga Swiatek
===============================================
2022 QF AT ALL FOUR SLAMS: none
===============================================
2022 SINGLES TITLE LEADER: Ash Barty/Paula Badosa (tie)
2022 SINGLES FINAL LEADERS: Garbine Muguruza
2022 SINGLES MATCH WIN LEADER: Paula Badosa
2022 S+D MATCH WIN LEADER: Elise Mertens
===============================================
2022 BJK CUP CHAMPIONS: Czech Republic
===============================================






*MISCELLANEOUS PREDICTIONS*

Emma Raducanu: the Brit has a hit-and-miss "year after" campaign, winning a small tour-level event, recording her first career Top 10 win and reaching a slam QF (in NYC) as she finally begins to find sure footing on the summer hard court circuit and ends the year strong

Leylah Fernandez: multiple trips to the second weeks of majors doesn't result in another slam final, but the Canadian finishes in the Top 15 while winning multiple titles (one a 1000), adding 5+ more Top 10 wins to her resume (including more than one over a #1) as she maintains her top-ranked national status

===============================================
Three Russians reach the Final 8 of a single major, with two facing off for a semifinal berth
===============================================
2021 RG semifinalist Tamara Zidansek reaches the QF in Paris in '22 in her return
===============================================
Mayar Sherif is the first Egyptian woman to win a tour title (doing so in both singles and doubles in '22)
===============================================
Victoria Jiménez Kasintseva, 16 until August, is the youngest tour singles semifinalist of the season
===============================================

Serena Williams: the quest for #24 becomes a distant topic of conversation, but Serena wins just her second title (w/ '20 Auckland) since the '17 Australian and reaches a slam QF for a sixteenth consecutive year.

Simona Halep: the Romanian stages a fine comeback, putting together what had (pre-2021) been a "normal" season for her, winning multiple titles (including a 1000 event), reaching at least four finals and playing for her third major crown.

Victoria Azarenka: 1 500 title, 2 1000 finals and a slam QF+ result.

===============================================
Venus Williams wins her first WD title while playing without Serena as a partner. She won two MX slam titles in 1998, but has never reached a WD final with a partner other than her sister.

In competitive tour-level events, she's played with Chanda Rubin ('04 Olympics), Caroline Wozniacki ('08 Doha), Madison Keys ('18 Rome), Harriet Dart ('19 Birmingham) and Coco Gauff ('21 RG) during her career.
===============================================
Angelique Kerber fails to win a singles title, but reaches two slam QF in a season for the first time since 2018
===============================================

Anastasia Palvyuchenkova: fails to advance out of the 3rd Round in any slam, but wins her first title since 2018 and reaches multiple singles finals, and finishes outside the Top 30

Liudmila Samsonova: reaches a slam SF and wins multiple titles on two surfaces, recording Top 10 wins in two different majors as she becomes the highest-ranked Russian on tour

===============================================
Giuliana Olmos becomes the first Mexican woman to reach a slam WD final (she reached the U.S. Open MX final in '21)
===============================================

=OVER/UNDER=
1 = S.Williams singles finals (2018-21: 2-3-1-0)...PUSH
1 = Siniakova s/d title sweeps...OVER
2 = Krejcikova s/d (or s+mx) title sweeps...UNDER
2 = Halep singles titles (2018-21: 3-1-3-0)...PUSH
2 = Fernandez slam Round of 16+ results...OVER
3 = Raducanu slam Round of 16+ results...UNDER
3 = Andreescu injury-related event w/d or ret....PUSH
4 = Different Russian women WS champions (2018-21: 4-0-1-3)...OVER
5 = Different U.S. women WS champions (2018-21: 1-6-3-4)...OVER
6 = Barty combined s/d titles (2018-21: 6-5-1-6)...UNDER
6 = Age 30+ Singles Champions (2018-21: 7-1-2-6)...UNDER
7 = Teen Singles Champions (2018-21: 2-7-1-8)...OVER
8 = V.Williams singles wins (2018-21: 17-19-1-3)...OVER

===============================================
Leylah Fernandez and Bianca Andreescu will meet multiple times in '22 in top level (1000 & slam) events, with all but one match-up going three sets (the one that doesn't will end in a retirement).
===============================================

Bianca Andreescu: fails to win a title, but reaches at least three 500+ finals, including at either I.W. or Miami and her second U.S. Open QF (where she finds Fernandez on the other side of the net).

Naomi Osaka: again plays her best on hard courts, mixing in disappointing results with one ultra-high level result that maintains her seasons-with-a-major-title streak

===============================================
Dasha Saville (née Gavrilova) reaches her first singles final since 2017, either on the WTA, WTA 125 or ITF level. She wins at least one lower level title.
===============================================
A year after winning her first two career titles, Danielle Collins adds three more, while Sofia Kenin's title-less season streak grows to two but she reaches her first tour singles finals since Roland Garros in the fall of '20.
===============================================

Coco Gauff: reaches her first slam singles SF, plays for a slam title in doubles (she reached the U.S. WD final in '21) in two majors. Wins her biggest career singles title and plays in at least one 1000 level final.

Jessie Pegula: collects a win over a world #1/#2 at a major, is the top-ranked U.S. woman for at least a third of the season, during which she reaches a slam QF and wins her biggest career title (topping her International, now 250, win in Washington in '19) while reaching three finals. But she doesn't end the year as the U.S. #1, and sees her final ranking slip from her #18 spot at the close of '21.

===============================================

Wheelchair tennis:

* - KG Montjane wins her first slam title (likely in doubles)

* - Dana Mathewson reaches her first slam singles semi outside of the U.S. Open (2019)

* - I was going to predict former #1 Jiske Griffioen would play in her first slam singles MD since 2017, but since she just announced she was given a WC into the Australian Open, I'll now go with her notching her first match win since the '17 AO and reaching her first major final (singles or doubles) since that same season

* - Yui Kamiji fails to reach the SF in a non-Wimbledon major for the first time since the 2012 RG. Though she's not had success on the grass, the world #2 has reached fifteen straight singles finals at the AO, RG and US and won at least her opening QF (1r) match in Melbourne, Paris and New York in the last twenty-four majors.

===============================================
An all-Aussie tour-level singles final takes place. The last was between Sam Stosur and Dasha Gavrilova in Strasbourg in 2017.
===============================================
A junior girl claims *two* slam singles titles in a season for the first time since 2013 (Bencic and Konjuh both won two)
===============================================

Marta Kostyuk: makes stunning SF run at a major, noting the inspiration of Raducanu and Fernandez's dual U.S. Open runs as she wins her first three tour titles and records her first five Top 10 wins en route to the outskirts of a Top 10 ranking of her own, ending the season as the highest ranked Ukrainian on tour.

Elina Svitolina: attains her best 1000 level result since her win in Rome in 2018, but fails to get any traction from the result. After a year with no more than one second week result at a major (and then only a 4r), Svitolina again changes coaches.

===============================================
A former singles #1 and/or slam finalist announces that she is coming out of retirement. Meanwhile, (at least) one former slam winner announces her retirement at season's end.
===============================================

Camila Osorio: wins two clay titles, and reaches her first major QF after posting her first Top 10 win in a major

Clara Tauson: wins titles both indoors *and* outdoors, reaching the second week of a slam for the first time en route to a Top 25 ranking

===============================================
Sania Mirza has her first multi-title season in doubles since 2016 (when she won 8 w/ Hingis and Strycova)
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A player records wins over the world #1 and #2 in a single major for the first time since 2009 (RG-Kuznetsova)
===============================================

Katerina Siniakova: adds singles success (2 titles, her first since '17) to her doubles prowess, winning on multiple surfaces (and even defeating doubles partner Krejcikova in a singles final).

Petra Kvitova: fails to reach the second week of a major for the second straight year, and wins no titles for the second time in three seasons. She ends with her lowest season-ending ranking since 2009, but re-joins the Czech Cup team in the nation's first title year since '18.

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A player ranked outside the Top 300 wins a tour singles title, the lowest-ranked champion since 2001 and the second lowest-ranked (not counting unranked players) winner in tour history
===============================================
Esther Vergeer is announced as a member of the 2023 class of the International Tennis Hall of Fame.

Note: this couldn't happen until January '23... and if it doesn't the next year in which a wheelchair athlete is eligible (barring the sort of amendment to the rules that allowed for the Original 9's induction) won't be until *2027.*

The greatest player WC tennis has ever seen deserves better, and *should* have already been part of the *2019* class.
===============================================



Of course, as always, I could also be waaaaaay off.









**BACKSPIN WEEK 1 PLAYERS-OF-THE-WEEK**
2002 Venus Williams, USA
2003 Serena Williams, USA
2004 Lindsay Davenport/USA, Eleni Daniilidou/GRE (co-PoW)
2005 Elena Dementieva, RUS
2006 Lucie Safarova, CZE
2007 Dinara Safina, RUS
2008 Li Na, CHN
2009 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2010 Kim Clijsters, BEL
2011 Vera Zvonareva, RUS
2012 Petra Kvitova, CZE
2013 Serena Williams, USA
2014 Serena Williams, USA
2015 Maria Sharapova/RUS, Simona Halep/ROU (co-PoW)
2016 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2017 Karolina Pliskova, CZE
2018 Simona Halep, ROU
2019 Julia Goerges, GER
2020 Serena Williams, USA
2021 Aryna Sabalenka, BLR

**CAREER WEEK 1 TITLES - active**
3...Karolina Pliskova, CZE
3...Serena Williams, USA
2...Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2...Aryna Sabalenka, BLR
2...Venus Williams, USA
1...Ekaterina Alexandrova, RUS
1...Kim Clijsters, BEL
1...Lauren Davis, USA
1...Simona Halep, ROU
1...Kaia Kanepi, EST
1...Petra Kvitova, CZE
1...Katerina Siniakova, CZE
1...Katarina Srebotnik, SLO
1...Sloane Stephens, USA
1...Elina Svitolina, UKR
1...Yanina Wickmayer, BEL

**MOST RECENT FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN JANUARY**
=2014 Week 2=
Tsvetana Pironkova (SYDNEY), Garbine Muguruza (HOBART)
=2017 Week 1=
Katerina Siniakova (SHENZHEN), Lauren Davis (AUCKLAND)
=2017 Week 2=
Elise Mertens (HOBART)
=2019 Week 2=
Sonia Kenin (HOBART)
=2020 Week 1=
Ekaterina Alexandrova (SHENZHEN)

**MOST RECENT FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN WEEK 1**
2006 Marion Bartoli (Auckland) - first final
2009 Victoria Azarenka (Brisbane) - had been 0-4 in finals
2017 Katerina Siniakova (Shenzhen) - had been 0-2 in finals
2017 Lauren Davis (Auckland) - had been 0-2 in finals
2020 Ekaterina Alexandrova (Shenzhen) - second career final

**MOST RECENT w/ MULTIPLE FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN WEEK 1**
=2000=
Silvija Talaja (Gold Coast)
Anne Kremer (Auckland)
=2017=
Katerina Siniakova (Shenzhen)
Lauren Davis (Auckland)





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All for now.

3 Comments:

Blogger Nicolas said...

"You do you" it's the same as "I don't care if you murder someone". Hope Barty flops this season, cause I think we shouldn't support people with this kind of selfish and genocide mentality.

Wed Jan 05, 07:30:00 AM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

Vikhlyantseva gets Sputnik V vaccine and can't play, while Djokovic does? I smell a lawsuit.

Sabalenka had 18 DF in her loss to Juvan. Curious if she plays next week.

AO seeding is straightforward for Top 4. There will be quarters for Barty, Sabalenka, Muguruza and Krejcikova. Osaka is this year's Serena, the one that should make someones quarter tougher.

9-16 Halep trying to get there.

17-24 Azarenka might need another win or two to lock that down.

25-32 Last 2 spots still have a number of contenders with Vondrousova, Teichmann, Sorribes Tormo, Rogers, Cirstea, Golubic, Tauson and Tomljanovic all alive.

Pegula is the name that jumps out at me because of the rank. Due to her 2020 Auckland points coming off, plus her highest ranked event being 2021 Australian Open, it will be tough for her ranking to go up. She might drop to 30 by March.

Kung has CH of 144.

Another odd ranking thing? Brengle has a massive amount of ITF points. Some still from 2019, since they only had 50% drop.

Now your questions?
1 = S.Williams singles finals (2018-21: 2-3-1-0)...Under because I really only see Miami, Wimbledon and US Open.

1 = Siniakova s/d title sweeps...Under as I see 5-6 doubles partners.

2 = Krejcikova s/d (or s+mx) title sweeps...Push because of 250 events on clay.

2 = Halep singles titles (2018-21: 3-1-3-0)...Under only because of health.

2 = Fernandez slam Round of 16+ results...Push only because she isn't seeded 16th yet.

3 = Raducanu slam Round of 16+ results...Under, but getting 2 would be great.

3 = Andreescu injury-related event w/d or ret....Under because we have no clue when her season will start.

4 = Different Russian women WS champions (2018-21: 4-0-1-3)...Over because I have been touting Zakharova and there are a massive amount of highly ranked Russians.

5 = Different U.S. women WS champions (2018-21: 1-6-3-4)...Under, but if Keys and Stephens get hot, I would gladly be wrong.

6 = Barty combined s/d titles (2018-21: 6-5-1-6)...Under but I can see 4.

6 = Age 30+ Singles Champions (2018-21: 7-1-2-6)...Under because Kanepi will win 100 or 125K.

7 = Teen Singles Champions (2018-21: 2-7-1-8)...Push. Number seems high, but Tauson is still 19.

8 = V.Williams singles wins (2018-21: 17-19-1-3)...Under because i'm not convinced that she will play 8 matches.

3 of my own:

2= MD slam wins for Daria Snigur- Push

2= Wins on clay for Allison Riske- Under

2= Wins on grass for Naomi Osaka- Over

Wed Jan 05, 08:04:00 PM EST  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

N-
To put it bluntly. And it is a *very* bad take on the whole thing by Barty, especially after she stayed away from home for nearly a year. I hesitate to hear what her comments on Djokovic might be.

I know she likes being liked, and seems reluctant to say anything about anything that she thinks might get pushback. But sometimes the "even Republicans buy sneakers" notion just doesn't apply.

Meanwhile, kudos to the "Brad Raffensperger of Australia," whomever they may be, who ultimately held the line at the airport in Melbourne and saved Tennis Australia, the AO, etc. from themselves. Might end up being *the* best moment of the entire tennis season, and we're only five days in.


C-
Yeah, between Tauson, Fernandez, Gauff, Raducanu and others (who'll be teenagers *all* season, or most of it), the overall numbers could be very high.

Siniakova *has* reached finals with three partners other than Krejcikova over the last three years (winning w/ Ostapenko and Krunic, losing one w/ Hradecka), so she's got the ability to do it even w/o Barbora all season long.

I factored in *one* good event for Venus where she'd get most of her wins (like, say around 4 out of about 9 total wins on the year).

Wed Jan 05, 11:34:00 PM EST  

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