Sunday, July 09, 2023

W.7- Andreeva and a Day


After Mirra Andreeva's stunning introduction to the WTA tour in Madrid and Paris this spring, the task of searching for clear signs that what we *think* we saw maybe wasn't *all* that it seemed began. A bad loss there, a case of nerves there. Anything that might count as a tell-tale sign, a "red flag," to beware.

Well, while the 16-year old's game surely has room to grow over the next few years, the search continues.



Today, in the last remaining 3rd Round match to not yet be played as a result of a week-long battle with rain delays, Andreeva once again resembled a player going places. Fast, and with clear and present intent.

Against #22-seeded countrywoman Anastasia Potapova, there was Andreeva looking like a modern day Caroli-... umm, make that a second coming of a soon-to-un-retire Caroline Wozniacki, patrolling the backcourt from four feet behind the baseline, getting to every ball, rarely ever missing and wearing down an opponent tasked with hitting shot after shot after shot to win a single point. Then, whenever an opportunity would arrive, the teenager would step in and fire a winner and make her opponent (today, Potapova) want to break something valuable.

The third youngest player to reach the Wimbledon 3rd Round in the Open era, Andreeva has already proven via a series of eye-opening results -- a 4th Round in the Madrid 1000 as a wild card, the 3rd Round at Roland Garros as a qualifier -- that she is a player to watch very closely. But continuing to do such things at the AELTC, on a surface she is completely unfamiliar with, is another, perhaps bigger and fancier, feather in her cap.

It didn't take long for Potapova to be initiated into Andreeva's storyline. The qualifier, calm and composed, quickly took a break lead in the 1st set, then went up a double-break at 4-1. With Potapova frustrated and talking to herself, Andreeva led 5-1 before the #22 seed got her first hold of serve on the day. Andreeva followed it up with a solid, love hold to take the set at 6-2.

After one set, the 16-year old had almost as many breaks of Potapova's serve (3) as she had total unforced errors (4).

Andreeva got another break to open the 2nd before Potapova finally found her footing. She broke in game 2, then took a break lead at 3-1. But just when you thought we might get to see what Andreeva would bring to the table in a 3rd set, well, she had other ideas.

An Andreeva swing volley winner put her up love/30 in game 7, and she soon got the break to get things back on serve.



The teenager, at 4-4, took a 15/40 lead on Potapova's serve in game 9, but couldn't convert on any of the seven BP chances she held to win the chance to serve for the match. The older Hordette held in the six-deuce game for a 5-4 lead. But, again, Andreeva was unbowed, even after falling behind 15/40 a game later. A Potapova forehand error opened the door for the 16-year old, who got the game to deuce, saving the two SP. Defending masterfully from left to right, Andreeva fired a rally-ending backhand winner down the line. She held for 5-5.

Having lost her chance a game earlier, it was Potapova who began to press, going for too much and missing, giving Andreeva a BP. A Potapova shot bounced off the net cord and out, giving Andreeva a shot to serve for her maiden Round of 16 in just her second career slam MD.

Not inclined to wait for a Potapova error to get her there, Andreeva fired a lob over her opponent three points in, catching the baseline for a 30/15 lead. Two points later, she had a MP. *Then* a Potapova error -- she netted an overhead -- sealed the deal. Andreeva's third Top 25 win this season, a 6-2/7-5 victory that was even more impressive than the scoreline might indicate, came with her winning eight of the final ten points in the match.

She had a more "human-like" 19 UE in the 2nd set but, hey, she's 16. You can't expect her to be nearly perfect between the lines *all* the time.

With the win, Andreeva stands at 28-3 in pro matches at all levels this year. After being 39-9 in (mostly) ITF events in '22, she's 67-12 for her career. There's something to be said for "learning how to win."

After starting 2023 at #293, and playing in the *junior* Australian Open final in January (and losing), Andreeva was at #194 before her Madrid run, nearly cracked the Top 100 (#101) after Roland Garros, and now finds herself at #64 in the live rankings.

Of course, when the teenager is involved, the "did she say anything good?" question after the match is in play. And, yes, she did once again, bringing up Andy Murray, being out of breath during her rallies vs. Potapova (but not as much as Potapova, though she didn't say that), and then slipping in a goal for *next* Wimbledon, as well. She wants to be a seeded player, so she can move up a level in the lockerroom.



But the Round of 16 comes next. Her opponent: #25 Madison Keys. So, we'll see how Andreeva faces a power player. It might not work out nearly as well. But, then again, what version of Keys will we see? The one currently on a fine grass court run, or the one whose consistency of shot is often a question. If Andreeva can catch up to Keys' shots with her defense, with her racket acting as a trampoline to send Keys' deep shots right back at her, the veteran Bannerette might not be able to produce shot after shot, point after point, without one of her "disaster runs" where one error follows another and leads turn into losses.

We're only at the very beginning of Andreeva's story, but this one will be interesting.





=DAY 7 NOTES=
...in the early women's Round of 16 match on Sunday, fellow Czechs Marketa Vondrousova and #32 seed Marie Bouzkova faced off for a berth in the QF, a spot that would either be the former's first at SW19 or the latter's second straight.

After Bouzkova claimed the opening set, the two traded off on two-game runs through the first six games of the 2nd. Up 4-2, Vondrousova held to maintain her lead and force a final set. There, Vondrousova's love break to go up 4-3 gave her the final momentum switch change. She held and then broke Bouzkova to win 2-6/6-4/6-3, winning 16 of the last 19 points.

This will be Vondrousova's first slam QF since reaching the final at Roland Garros in 2019. She'd been 1-4 in her Wimbledon career before this week.



Hmmm, a Czech lefty in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. That has a familiar ring to it.

...in the other early Round of 16 match, the result of the contest between #4 Jessie Pegula and Lesia Tsurenko was probably never in doubt, not after the Ukrainian had already set the tournament (and likely her career) benchmark with her win in a 20-18 match TB vs. Ana Bogdan two days ago. Already with a history or injuries, "injuries," retirements and the like, to think that Tsurenko would be able to call up something remarkable after that 3:40 marathon felt like the ultimate no-go. Not that she needed to.

Truthfully, Tsurenko put forward a pretty good accounting. For one, she made it through the match, even after dropping the opening five games, eight of the first nine, and saw Pegula lead 6-1/5-1. She even pushed Pegula a bit down last stretch of the 2nd set, engaging in a 24-shot rally. But then this happened...



I swear, you could hear the lockerroom eyerolls from the AELTC all the way across the Atlantic. Stopping play for a timeout at that stage, then a few minutes later moving around fine, is precisely the sort of thing that caused Donna Vekic to question the veracity of Tsurenko's injury claims and refusing to shake her hand after a match this spring.

Pam Shriver, commentating for ESPN and talking about Tsurenko's laundry list of retirements, walkovers and questionable stoppages/slow-downs of play, really should have spoken a bit more in the moment about how the tour players feel about her actions, considering she's a co-coach of Vekic. Though I guess she didn't want to say *too* much and betray a confidence.

When Tsurenko was finally ready to go again, Pegula swept the final two points that were played (the last after a replay challenge), winning 6-1/6-3 (I'm not sure if Tsurenko pulled the "over" for total games won or not, since the number couldn't have been more that 3 or 4 going in).

With the win, Pegula completes her "Career QF Slam," reaching the SW19 final eight for the first time in her 19th slam MD. Still a "QF Queen," though, she's so far gone 0-5 when she's reached this stage in past slams. This is her fifth QF in the last seven majors.



...later in the day, #1 Iga Swiatek got her own chance to complete her Career QF Slam (in MD #18) in perhaps her biggest-ever test on grass against #14 Belinda Bencic in a match-up of the '18 Wimbledon junior champ vs. the '13 girls' winner.

Swiatek had been somewhat tested late in the 2nd set of her 3rd Round match against #30 Petra Martic and had emerged victorious, but Bencic was actually the first Top 20 opponent she's ever faced on grass. The world #1 came into the day 3-4 vs. Top 50 foes on the surface, with all three of those wins coming over the past two weeks against Anna Blinkova, Zhu Lin and Martic.

Make no mistake, Bencic pushed Swiatek's back against the wall, resulting in the Pole getting that familiar (almost) panicked look on her face as she loses control of the match narrative and seemingly tries *too* hard to turn things around in an instant, resulting in uncharacteristic errors that either put her in deeper trouble (if the opponent can take advantage) or are the leading edge of Swiatek fighting back to "even" the match and then letting her (usual) edge in big-stage experience take over down the stretch.

In Bencic's case, it was a little bit of both.

The two engaged in a tight 1st set, with Swiatek leading 5-4 and taking a 15/40 edge on Bencic's serve in game 10. Bencic saved both SP, wiping away the second chance with a drop shot and backhand down the line. The Swiss held for 5-5, then did the same from 30/30 two games later to force a tie-break.

There, Bencic's challenge seemed to fluster Swiatek. She took a 4-0 lead, then 6-1. At 6-3, with her first SP on serve, Bencic finally put away a 7-4 win when Iga's return shot went long. Swiatek hadn't faced a BP the entire set, while going 0-for-6 on Bencic's serve as the Swiss extended her consecutive holds streak to 23.

Between sets, Swiatek took the opportunity for an off-court bathroom break, taking along her trusty notebook of match notes to glance at while she was away.

Whatever knowledge the notebook imparted, it seemed to inspire her. Iga ended Bencic's holds streak in game 1, putting away a BP with a return winner. But Bencic didn't relent, she got the set back on serve at 3-3 as Swiatek pulled a backhand shot wide. Bencic held for 6-5, putting the onus on Iga to hold to stay in this Wimbledon. A Bencic forehand winner into the corner was followed by a loose Swiatek error and the Swiss found herself at double MP at 15/40.

Swiatek saved the first MP with a deep shot that handcuffed Bencic, then put away a crosscourt backhand on MP #2. She got the hold and the match went to another TB. There, the server lost the first five points before Swiatek was the first to hold. She took the tiny bit of momentum and held it, racing to a 6-2 lead. Bencic's double fault knotted the match.

At this point, with Bencic having squandered not one but two chances to put out the world #1, it felt like the advantage shifted to a tremendous degree toward Swiatek.

Bencic would get *one* more shot, holding a BP on Iga's serve in game 3 of the 3rd, but she couldn't convert it, either. Swiatek held for 2-1, and the Swiss had fully lost the line of the conversation. The Questioning Iga had been replaced, if not in full body form by Frontrunner Iga, then surely Race Leader Iga had stepped in. Bencic DF'd on another BP in game 4, falling behind 4-1.

Serving for her maiden Wimbledon QF at 5-3, Swiatek fell behind love/30. At 15/30, a Bencic forehand was called long. She wished to challenge the call, but has exhausted all of her replay challenges for the set. Naturally, the ball had caught a line. But it didn't matter, and it was now 30/30. Swiatek's forehand down the line gave her her first MP, then a cross court forehand ended things.

Swiatek won 6-7(4)/7-6(2)/6-3.



While much would have been made of this had Swiatek lost, though an upset, it wouldn't have been a HUGE one. An Iga exit at this moment wouldn't have changed much in this event, as she'd yet to prove that she could win THIS particular major THIS year. Calling her a "favorite" coming in was a move based solely on faith, as she had nothing to put on the table to *truly* say it was a realistic option.

It still might not be, not yet. But this win very well could have changed that. There is still much more to prove at this slam for Swiatek, but it's starting to look as if she might just get the *chance* to do it. I still think her U.S. Open run last summer stands as Swiatek's *best* slam performance because it was messy, she met resistence and overcame it while proving to herself that she could do it on a slam stage other than Chatrier.

A win here *could*, and likely *would*, under the right circumstances and against the right opponents, top it.

...while Swiatek was busy on Centre placing her name -- legitimately, this time... not just because she's the #1 seed -- into consideration when it comes to who might just have what it takes to win this tournament, #19 Victoria Azarenka and wild card Elina Svitolina were battling it out on Court 1.

In a clash of moms from nations currently... nah, why mention *that* -- because it surely won't come into play in some ugly way or anything, right? -- the two former Wimbledon semifinalists fought tooth and nail until the bitter end.

After Azarenka, sporting a 5-0 edge in their head-to-head, took the 1st set and led 6-2/2-0, Svitolina surged back into the contest. Late in the 2nd, Azarenka staved off four BP and held in a five-deuce game to level the score at 4-4. Two games later, though, she couldn't secure one of a pair of GP in another long (three-deuce) game. Svitolina only needed one break chance this time, converting it to send things to a 3rd.

It was Svitolina who led 2-0 this time, but Azarenka got the set back on serve mid-way through at 3-3 and, once again, a women's match went to a deciding match tie-break. It wasn't a 20-18 marathon, but it was yet another dramatic, momentum-shifting affair.

Svitolina held the early mini-break lead at 2-1, but a series of errors helped hand Azarenka a 4-2 edge. But Vika's failed drop shot attempt gave her own mini-break lead away, and an unforced error made it 4-4. Two Svitolina errors followed, and her inability to dig out a deep court shot with her backhand saw Azarenka surge into the lead again at 7-4.

Svitolina won the next three points, then re-took the lead with a backhand passing shot, going up 8-7. Another poor Azarenka drop shot attempt ended a nice rally and put Svitolina at MP at 9-8. After Azarenka painted a line, then saw Svitolina chase down a swing volley ball, Vika adeptly put away a potentially-nervy overhead to keep the breaker alive. Svitolina then successfully employed her own drop shot, which Azarenka got to but sailed her ball long, giving Svitolina a second MP at 10-9.

Svitolina secured the win with an ace, following up Tsurenko's MTB win on Friday with one of her own, advancing to her second straight slam QF (first at SW19 since '19) by a 2-6/6-4/7-6(9) score. Then the two moms/competitors met and... no, wait, that didn't happen. Hey, what happened to the "dueling moms" plotline we were being sold the other day?



After Svitolina pulled herself off the ground, she approached the net. Azarenka had gotten there before her and shook the chair umpire's hand then, not stupid and knowing the deal, looked back at Svitolina and offered a conciliatory wave. Viewed from behind on camera, it was hard to tell Svitolina's reaction, but upon close inspection it looks as if she nodded back (now we're reduced to watching post-match tennis moments like it's the Zapruder film... back, and to the right?).

Then, as has so often been the case this slam season, from the press room to the stands, casual stupidity reigned supreme as the crowd booed *Azarenka* as she left court. Needless to say, Vika was a bit taken aback, and shook her head, raised her arms and banged her wrists together as she disappeared from view. She'd have been within her right to do more, but refrained.

So, yet another great match and wonderfully competitive tie-break gets sullied despite the on-court situation being either easy to "fix" or for grand slam tennis fans spectators to have even a little bit of awareness. But it's 2023, and we can't have nice things.

...meanwhile, on the challenger level, this week's WTA 125 level events are set to start. MD play in Contrexeville will feature Ansastasia Pavlyuchenkova, *Erika* Andreeva and Aleksandra Krunic, while Bastad sees *Polina* Kuderemetova open over vs. #1 seeded Emma Navarro.

Pastry Clara Burel won the $60K Montpellier final over Astra Sharma, and Arantxa Rus prevailed in The Hague ($40K) over Sara Bejlek. 18-year old German Ella Seidel won her maiden pro crown in Stuttgart, defeating countrywoman Julia Middendorf for a $25K title.






*WOMEN'S SINGLES ROUND OF 16*
#1 Iga Swiatek/POL def. #14 Belinda Bencic/SUI
(WC) Elina Svitolina/UKR def. #19 Victoria Azarenka/BLR
#4 Jessie Pegula/USA def. Lesia Tsurenko/UKR
Marketa Vondrousova/CZE def. #32 Marie Bouzkova/CZE
#6 Ons Jabeur/TUN vs. #9 Petra Kvitova/CZE
#13 Beatriz Haddad Maia/BRA vs. #3 Elena Rybakina/KAZ
#25 Madison Keys/USA vs. (Q) Mirra Andreeva/RUS
#21 Ekaterina Alexandrova/RUS vs. #2 Aryna Sabalenka/BLR







...WELCOME TO WIMBLEDON... ON DAY 7:




...SW19 (WORKING) SUMMER VACATIONS... ON DAY 7:




...16(!), BUT ALSO 16... ON DAY 7:




...FLIPPER, SIGNING OFF... ON DAY 7:
















Casey Kasem Top 40 Time, for July 13, 1985.

Honestly, outside the Top 5, the selection wasn't that great. A *whole* lot of movie songs, including the first Bond movie theme (Duran Duran's "A View to a Kill") to hit #1. A few highlights...

#30 - "Freeway of Love" (Aretha Franklin) - reaching #3, it was her biggest hit song in 12 years, but she'd get to #1 two years later with the "I Knew You Were Waiting (For Me)" duet with George Michael, her final Top 10 hit single




#29 - "Power of Love" (Huey Lewis & the News) - from "Back to the Future"




#17 - "Angel" (Madonna) - her 5th consecutive Top 5 single
#9 - "Glory Days" (Bruce Springsteen)

...if there was a fifth U.S. mid-'80s musical superstar along with Michael Jackson, Madonna, Prince and Whitney Houston it was probably Springsteen. Apparently a lot of people take issue with his use of "he could throw that speedball by you," (rather than "fastball") "make you look like a fool, boy." But I think that's the best lyric in the entire thing. I hate when he sometimes changes it (including using "screwball") in performances. Here he is, 38 years later, though, going "old school"...



#5 - "Would I Lie to You?" (The Eurythmics) - Ons Jabeur's new theme song? (kidding.)
#3 - "Raspberry Beret" (Prince) - "She walked in through the out door, out door..."
#2 - "Sussudio" (Phil Collins) - it's not like he's overlooked, but he's still maybe the most underrated super hit maker of the decade. So many of his *big* hits would be huge if they were released today, too.









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*YOUNG IN 2023 SLAM ROUND OF 16*
16 - Mirra Andreeva (WI)
17 - Linda Fruhvirtova (AO)
18 - Coco Gauff (AO)
19 - Coco Gauff (RG)
20 - Elina Avanesyan (RG)
21 - Iga Swiatek (AO)

*"CAREER QF SLAM" - active*
[with slam at which completed]
Azarenka - 2012 US (28th)
Halep - 2015 US (22nd)
Jabeur - 2023 RG (24th)
Kanepi - 2022 AO (53rd)
Kerber - 2016 AO (33rd)
Keys - 2018 RG (23rd)
Kuznetsova - 2006 RG (16th)
Kvitova - 2015 US (30th)
Pavlyuchenkova - 2017 AO (37th)
Pegula - 2023 WI (19th)
Ka.Pliskova - 2021 WI (36th)
Sabalenka - 2023 RG (21st)
Stephens - 2018 RG (25th)
Svitolina - 2019 US (29th)
Swiatek - 2023 WI (18th)
V.Williams - 1998 WI (6th)
Zvonareva - 2010 US (31st)

*COMPLETED "CAREER QF SLAM" IN 2020s*
2021 WI - Karolina Pliskova, CZE (36th)
2022 AO - Kaia Kanepi, EST (53rd)
2023 RG - Ons Jabeur, TUN (24th)
2023 RG - Aryna Sabalenka, BLR (21st)
2023 WI - Jessie Pegula, USA (19th)
2023 WI - Iga Swiatek, POL (18th)

*WIMBLEDON "LAST QUALIFIER STANDING" - since 2017*
=2017=
Petra Martic, CRO (4th Rd.)
=2018=
Evgeniya Rodina, RUS (4th Rd.)
=2019=
Coco Cauff, USA (4th Rd.)
=2021=
Maria (Camila Osorio) Serrano, COL (3rd Rd.)
=2022=
M.Chwalinska/POL, C.Harrison/USA, M.Hontama/JPN, K.Kawa/POL, Y.Wickmayer/BEL (all 2nd Rd.)
=2023=
Mirra Andreeva, RUS (in 4th Rd.)



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I've said before that I think Tom Cruise, if nothing else, is the greatest "movie star" who has ever lived (he's being on top for 40 years, an unmatched and nearly unfathomable run, with no end in sight... just this week he talked about how Harrison Ford doing an Indiana Jones movie at age 80 just revs him up for 20 more years of Ethan Hunt blockbusters). Here (free link) is a good rundown of that notion, including the "murky" aspects of his fame which, really, make what he's done all the more astounding.










TOP QUALIFIER: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro/ESP
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #25 Madison Keys/USA
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q3 - #18 Lucrezia Stefanini def. (PR) Hsieh Su-wei 6-2/6-7(3)/7-6(11-9)
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 2nd Rd. - #20 Donna Vekic/CRO def. Sloane Stephens/USA 4-6/7-5/6-4 - trailed 6-4/3-0 and 2 BP, Stephens served at 5-3
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: (PR) Barbora Strycova/CZE (def. Zanevska/BEL; first Wimb. match since 2019 SF)
FIRST SEED OUT: #15 Liudmila Samsonova/RUS (1st Rd.-Bogdan/ROU)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Bai Zhuoxuan/CHN, Jodie Burrage/GBR, Tamara Korpatsch/GER, Natalija Stevanovic/SRB
UPSET QUEENS: Romania
REVELATION LADIES: The Return of the Hordettes
NATION OF POOR SOULS: ITA (1-6 1st Rd.)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: Mirra Andreeva/RUS (in 4th Rd.)
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Elina Svitolina/UKR (in QF)
PROTECTED RANKING: Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Sara Sorribes Tormo/ESP, Barbora Strycova/CZE (all 2nd Rd.)
LUCKY LOSER WINS: Tamara Korpatsch/GER (2nd Rd.)
LAST BRIT STANDING: Katie Boulter (3rd Rd.)
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: xx
IT "??": Nominee: M.Andreeva
COMEBACK PLAYER: Nominees: Svitolina, Hsieh/Strycova, Kenin
CRASH & BURN: Tatjana Maria/GER ('22 semifinalist, loses 1st Rd.)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF LONDON: Lesia Tsurenko/UKR (3rd Rd.: in 3:40, wins slam record 38-pt. TB over Bogdan on 7th MP; saved 5 MP in TB; Bogdan served for match at 5-3 3rd)
DOUBLES STAR: xx
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): Nominees: Kvitova, Svitolina, Hsieh/Strycova
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: xx
SPIRIT OF JANA (NOVOTNA) HONOREE: Karolina Muchova/CZE






All for Day 7. More tomorrow.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 8:31 PM 

2 Comments:

Blogger colt13 said...

Andreeva coming in hot like Elly de la Cruz.

Andreeva went 6/21 on BP.

At 64 in live rank, she is off US Open bubble. Others that helped themselves this fortnight are Kenin at 91, Vondrousova, who has gone from using a PR to being a probable US Open seed, and Svitolina, who will probably be seeded if she wins her next match.

Those that likely will drop to Q are Mandlik, Shanider, Errani, Danilovic, Bondar.

Svitolina/Azarenka tried to become Tsurenko/Bogdan.

Bencic lost a 3 set match in which she was only broken twice.

Stat of the Day- 14- Number of WTA number 1's that won Wimbledon.

There are expectations once you become number 1. Swiatek fought her way to a win today, reaching the QF here for the first time.

But did you know that there are others that never did?

Number 1's at Wimbledon(28):

W- 14
F- 4- Seles, Sanchez Vicario, Henin, Pliskova
SF-6- Austin, Capriati, Clijsters, Ivanovic, Safina, Azarenka
QF-1- Swiatek
4th-2-Jankovic, Wozniacki
3rd-1-Osaka

Seles is the biggest what if, as it is assumed that she would have won in 1993 or 1994. The other might be Dinara Safina, who reached the SF in 2009, but due to injury, never again played the event.

Tracy Austin only played the event 6 times, with 2 SF and 2 QF.

Sun Jul 09, 11:33:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

That #1's at Wimbledon list is another I think I'm going to have to "borrow." ;)

(And make a version of for the other three slams, too.) :)

Mon Jul 10, 09:54:00 AM EDT  

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