US.4- A Crooked Quest Seeking a Straight Path to the Top

At one point in 2023, Aryna Sabalenka's path to the top of the rankings seemed like a near straight-shot. But late summer has arrived. Things have changed.

Ever since correcting her serve issues (aka DF-DF-DF...) over the course of 2022, Sabalenka ended last season looking like a player who'd figured things out. Accordingly she burst into this season by winning her first thirteen matches, including her maiden slam title at the Australian Open. Through the opening months of '23, Sabalenka was either Player 1a or 1b (Elena Rybakina was in the conversation) on the season, with world #1 Iga Swiatek lagging well behind.

By the clay court season, Sabalenka was breathing down the Pole's neck. The top ranking was nearly within her sights after knocking off Swiatek in Madrid (after losing to her in the Stuttgart final), her first win in their series on the dirt, and going to Roland Garros and reaching her third straight slam SF.

As both she and Swiatek readied to play their semis in Paris, Sabalenka was ahead on all scorecards for the Player of the (Half) Year. She had more wins (34-33), more titles (3-2) and more finals (5-4) on the season. If Swiatek lost her SF against Beatriz Haddad Maia, the #1 ranking would slide over to Sabalenka, no matter the Belarusian's match result. But Sabalenka played first on that day, and with a victory could at the very least assure a *face-off* for #1 with Swiatek in the final. Sabalenka only needed to first *reach* that final.

In her semifinal against Karolina Muchova, Sabalenka led the Czech 5-2 in the 3rd set. She even held a MP. But it didn't happen. In fact, her quest came up empty. Totally empty. And when the red dust had settled it was Muchova who was walking away with a confident gait, having followed her own path to glory with a 7-6(5)/6-7(5)/7-5 win in 3:13, sweeping the final five games and 20 of the last 24 points.

With September almost here, that moment seems like so long ago. Sabalenka's meltdown vs. Muchova abruptly changed the season's storyline in the WTA.

Swiatek went on to win her semi and defend her title, rounding the season's mid-point corner and then rolling up alongside Sabalenka in the Player of the Year race over the last three months. Starting with those semifinals in Paris, Sabalenka came into today having posted an 11-5 mark, reaching no finals. Swiatek has won a pair of titles (starting with RG), gone 22-3 and is into the 3rd Round at Flushing Meadows as she seeks to defend another major title.

Ah, but with Swiatek's aversion (though that's slowly changing) to grass court tennis, Sabalenka *still* had a straight shot at #1. With Swiatek falling in the QF at Wimbledon (her best SW19 run), Sabalenka didn't even need to snatch a second '23 slam crown to replace her as #1.

Sabalenka followed up her RG semi with her second final four run at Wimbledon in her return after the '22 RUS/BLR ban. It was her tour-best fourth straight slam SF, and 6th in the last 8 majors in which she's participated. But, as if Paris had torn off a mental scab that remained sore more than a month later, Sabalenka lost a 4-3 (+BP) 3rd set lead vs. Ons Jabeur to fall to 1-5 in career slam SF. Had she defeated Jabeur, Sabalenka would have replaced Swiatek as the world #1, but she ultimately came up one win (actually, just five points) short.

But Sabalenka still had the hard court summer to gain ground, right? Uh, think again.

In Montreal, Sabalenka continued to fritter away her chances of taking the #1 ranking anytime soon, falling to Liudmila Samsonova in the 3rd Round, equaling her run from last year. Swiatek reached the SF, improving on her 3rd Round result from '22.

In Cincinnati, Muchova re-entered the story.

After flipping the Sabalenka script in Paris, Muchova again faced her in a semifinal. With Swiatek having lost in the earlier semi (another improvement over a '22 3r), the Czech again downed Sabalenka in another three-setter as the Belarusian looked dead in the eyes a final chance to pick up some significant ground on the Pole heading into NYC and, well, blinked. Her SF again matched her result from last year.

The story this week entered its New York chapter, a year after Swiatek won the title after defeating Sabalenka in the semis. In other words, there is once again room for the #2-seeded Sabalenka to pick up ground, even if it means a rematch on Ashe, only this time it'd be in the final.

Sabalenka had mostly clear sailing today as she voyaged into the 3rd Round. After taking a 4-1 1st set on Jodie Burrage, the Brit reached break point in game 7 but couldn't convert. When she didn't, an attack of negativity flooded into her game, allowing ESPN+ commentator Andrea Petkovic to unleash a whopper of a line about why it's a no-no to allow such things when facing a top-ranked player such as Sabalenka. Said the German, "The top players, they're like predators. They smell the blood on their victims."

(Further proof that we more -- a lot more -- Petko in the broadcast booth.)

Sabalenka pulled a forehand wide on a SP on Burrage's serve in game 8, then had an unforced error on SP #2 a game later. Finally, on #3 Burrage obliged with a long return of a second serve and the Belarusian took the set 6-3.

Sabalenka saved a BP in game 2 of the 2nd with an unreturnable forehand, then broke to take a 3-2 lead. Serving at 5-2, she finished off the match with a love hold.

Keeping the pressure on ??

No.2 seed @SabalenkaA downs Burrage 6-3, 6-2 to set up a third-round clash with Burel.#USOpen pic.twitter.com/t2EG1STQ2k

— wta (@WTA) August 31, 2023

With the victory, Sabalenka improves to 49-12 since the start of last year's WTA Finals, when her quest for #1 really began, with wins over the top three players in the world in a week that ultimately ended with her coming up short of something bigger in the final. Up next will be Clara Burel, who upset #25-seed Karolina Pliskova today. Sabalenka defeated the Pastry 6-0/6-2 in *last* year's U.S. Open 3rd Round.

After being five actual points (in the SW19 semis) from #1 in London, Sabalenka now trails Swiatek by some 1209 ranking points on the WTA computer. She still leads the '23 Points Race as they both match results in NYC -- by 245 points -- but that, too, could turn in the Pole's favor by the end of this slam.

Sabalenka also leads Swiatek in the "live" rankings through today's result, by a slim 11-point margin. But depending on Swiatek to lose early (or earlier) in an event she's already won once is hardly the path to #1 that any useful navigation app would spit out.

After today's win, even Sabalenka acknowledged that her goal of reaching #1 was still *a thing* but that she isn't really focusing on it at this event. It's probably a smart route, and maybe it'll turn out to be a bit less crooked than the one she's traveled over the past few months.

via GIPHY

If she just keeps her eyes on the road and her hands on the wheel, well, that's it. Just do that. Whatever results would be a fun ride for everyone.






=DAY 4 NOTES= ...by the time Burrage had hit the court, Katie Boulter had already held up her end of the British tennis deal at this U.S. Open, which had surprisingly gone very well in the early days of the first week. All three Brits won their 1st Round matches. While qualifier Lily Miyazaki lost on Wednesday to Belinda Bencic, today Boulter faced off with qualifier Wang Yafan.

Katie Boulter ???? comes from a set down to defeat the really exciting qualifier Wang Yafan ???? 5-7, 6-1, 6-4 to reach a first US Open third round!#USOpen #USOpen2023 pic.twitter.com/BRiqSFYeMh

— First Serve Tennis (@FirstServeTnnis) August 31, 2023

Boulter's win over Wang is no small feat, as the 29-year old from China came in riding an 11-match winning streak, part of what was a 38-3 run that she's put together mostly at lower levels as she's raised her ranking from the #400's in January to back inside the Top 100 once this slam is complete. She'd missed much time and won very little from 2020-22, and sat out seven months over the end of last season and this one.

But, of course, Boulter is no stranger to tough times.

Katie Boulter beats Wang Yifan 5-7 6-1 6-4 in the second round at the US Open. pic.twitter.com/2zDDaJMDWI

— Tennis on telly ???????? (@tennisontelly) August 31, 2023

After all, before injuries put a stop to it (starting with a spinal stress fracture during Fed Cup play in spring '19, in a tie in which she'd played the "warrior" role vs. KAZ), Boulter had looked to be a Brit worth watching on the WTA tour. She'd cracked the Top 100 in 2018, and recorded her first slam MD win in Melbourne the following year. But she then missed six of the next eight majors, falling to #365 by the end of 2020.

Boulter has gradually worked her way back, winning three MD matches at Wimbledon in 2021-22, and recording two upsets of Karolina Pliskova during the '22 grass season. She started strongly in '23, winning the Canberra $60K challenger (where she def. Heather Watson, then Burrage in the final), her biggest title since 2018.

As the schedule turned back to grass this summer, Boulter reached the $100K Surbiton semis, then carried over that run into tour-level Nottingham, where the Brit had the greatest week of her career, again handling Watson (SF) and Burrage (F) to finish off her maiden tour title run without dropping a set. The final vs. Burrage was the first all-Brit WTA title match since 1977, and just the third ever in tour history (it was the first to take place on home soil). The result lifted Boulter back into the Top 100 for the first time since just shortly after her spinal injury in the spring of '19.

After having lost in qualifying at three straight slams, Boulter repeated her 3rd Round run at SW19 before losing to Elena Rybakina. After qualifying in Montreal (before losing to Coco Gauff), she reached her career high (#60) earlier this month, and now she's carried the form into New York, notching her first Open MD win (over Diane Parry) on Day 2 and finding herself in the 3rd Round of a major for the first time outside of Wimbledon. Boulter is now flirting with her Top 50 debut (at least). Boulter's 35 match wins on the season are the most since she claimed 36 in 2018 (her career high is 40 in '17).

Two years ago another Brit rode a New York wave all the way to the end of the second week. Nobody -- not even anyone named Raducanu -- would believe Boulter is about to repeat history. But she'll face Bannerette Peyton Stearns in her next match for her first trip into the second week of a slam.

She's already come a long way.

...there hasn't been any "controversy" involving any players from (nation name redacted) or (nation name also redacted) at this U.S. Open, but there *were* two match-ups between players from those two nations today.

#22 Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Lesia Tsurenko, getting her first win in five matches in their head-to-head and extending her best career slam season by reaching her fourth staight 3rd Round in a major (she reached the Round of 16 at Wimbledon). Later in the afternoon, #26 Elina Svitolina rallied from a set back to defeat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, 5-7/6-4/6-4, to improve her '23 slam record to 11-2 since she returned in the spring after becoming a first-time mother.

Meanwhile, #14 Liudmila Samsonova defeated Tamara Korpatsch, giving Samsonova her best slam result of the season after disappointing 2r-2r-1r outings in the first three. She reached the Round of 16 last year in New York.

The presence of multiple Hordettes in the 3rd Round means that at least one Russian woman has reached that stage at 90 of the past 92 slams in which they've been allowed to play.

...the "Big Apple Bannerette Breakthrough" honor was left vacant a year ago as none of the U.S. women really seemed to have stepped up to earn it. There seem to be a plethora of possibilities this year.

One of them is former Texas Longhorn star Stearns, who's already cracked the Top 60, played into a slam 3rd Round before (RG) and reached a tour final in her debut year on tour. Today she defeated Clara Tauson 3 & love to reach her maiden U.S. Open 3rd Round. She's now around the Top 50 in the live rankings.

Career BEST ??

???? @peyton_stearns defeats Tauson in straight sets to reach the #USOpen third round! pic.twitter.com/iBS8nXj6VY

— wta (@WTA) August 31, 2023

She doesn't have the BBB locked up, though, as (aside from a possible junior) there are still other names floating around such as Taylor Townsend, Bernarda Pera (though already a slam Round of 16er in '23, at RG) and Sachia Vickery.

...picking the "Early-Round Top Player" honor in this space is always something like throwing things at a dartboard in the dark, as unless a player has posted back-to-back love-and-love wins (Iga did not) then it's just a temporary nod. The last time an "Early-Round" winner won the title was 2014 (her name was Serena), and just one (Vika '20) has even reached the final since then.

At this point, the candidates (for various "reasons," for what they're worth) would seem to be the aforementioned Swiatek (eight games allowed), Coco Gauff (flashing the star power), Elise Mertens (5 saved MP in two matches), and maybe Jessie Pegula (4 games in the 1st Rd.). Caroline Wozniacki? Not quite yet.

I'll add the final verdict below after the 2nd Round is complete tonight.

...the Night 4 session is a bit "less flashy" (by NYC standards, at least) on the women's side -- i.e. no Coco, Venus or Petra/Caro -- as Jessie Pegula faces Patricia Maria Tig on Ashe, and Sofia Kenin and Dasha Kasatkina go at it on Armstrong.

That said, the two match-ups feature the U.S. #1 (#3 seed), a former slam champion and a past slam semifinalist. The men's matches feature players named O'Connell and Harris vs. former Open winners.

...I CAN'T BELIEVE IGA IS *WEARING A HAT* ON THE SIDE OF A CAB... ON DAY 4:

Painting the town purple, one cab ride at a time! ????

Anyone in NYC spotted one yet?#WTA50 #JustStarting pic.twitter.com/IiHv5X1BJ7

— wta (@WTA) August 31, 2023

via GIPHY

...MEANWHILE... ON DAY 4:

Tennis legends in the house! ?? pic.twitter.com/SPibV74L3T

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 31, 2023

"Three years ago if you'd asked me, I didn't think I was ever going to play on one of those courts again in the U.S. Open, especially a night session. It just feels pretty incredible to be out there and winning a match like that."

Caro Wozniacki's emotion ??

Back from retirement for 3 weeks, Wozniacki ???? defeats (already!) a world No. 11, Kvitova ???? (7-5 7-6), and reaches the US Open 3rd round!

Next opponent: Brady ????, also on a comeback.

(?? @usopen)pic.twitter.com/Ese3hj2h4s

— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) August 31, 2023

Thus far it's been a dream comeback for @CaroWozniacki! pic.twitter.com/3j4xdYO1a3

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 31, 2023

It was like she never went away. Congrats on a great match @CaroWozniacki ??

Wasn't the happiest of US swings for me but I am taking it in my stride and always trying to find a bright side. See you soon NYC and thank you for your support, always ?? pic.twitter.com/p9sFmfokb0

— Petra Kvitova (@Petra_Kvitova) August 31, 2023

**RECENT U.S. OPEN "EARLY-RD. TOP PLAYER" WINNERS, w/ final result**
2010 Caroline Wozniacki, DEN (SF)
2011 Serena Williams, USA (RU)
2012 Samantha Stosur, AUS (QF)
2013 (co) Serena Williams/USA (W) & Victoria Azarenka/BLR (RU)
2014 Serena Williams, USA (W)
2015 Simona Halep, ROU (SF)
2016 Serena Williams, USA (SF)
2017 Garbine Muguruza, ESP (4th)
2018 Kiki Bertens, NED (3rd)
2019 Madison Keys, USA (4th)
2020 Victoria Azarenka, BLR (RU)
2021 Garbine Muguruza, ESP (4th)
2022 Serena Williams/USA (3rd) & Liudmila Samsonova/RUS (4th)
2023 Coco Gauff, USA

**RECENT U.S. OPEN "CRASH & BURN"**
2017 Angelique Kerber, GER (1st Rd.)
2018 Simona Halep, ROU (1st Rd.)
2019 Sloane Stephens, USA (1st Rd.)
2020 Karolina Pliskova, CZE (2nd Rd.)
2021 A.Barty, AUS and N.Osaka, JPN (3rd Rd.)
2022 Simona Halep, ROU (1st Rd.)
2023 Maria Sakkari, GRE (1st Rd.)
[2023]
AO: Garbine Muguruza (1r; falls out of Top 80)
RG: #13 Barbora Krejcikova (2 consecutive 1r since '21 title)
WI: Tatjana Maria (1r after '22 SF)
US: #8 Maria Sakkari (3 consecutive slam 1r exits)

**BACKSPIN 2023 VETERAN PLAYER-OF-THE-MONTH WINNERS**
JAN (pre-AO): Petra Kvitova, CZE
AO: Victoria Azarenka, BLR
FEB: Camila Giorgi, ITA
MAR: Petra Kvitova, CZE
1Q...KVITOVA
APR: Tatjana Maria, GER
MAY: Sloane Stephens, USA
RG: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS
2Q Clay Court...YUI KAMIJI, JPN (WC)
JUN: Petra Kvitova, CZE
WI: Hsieh/Strycova, TPE/CZE
2Q Grass Court...KVITOVA
JUL: Arantxa Rus, NED
AUG (pre-U.S.): Siegemund/Zvonareva, GER/RUS
[2023 Weekly Veteran Award Wins]
4 - Tatjana Maria, GER
4 - Laura Siegemund, GER
4 - Lesia Tsurenko, UKR
3 - Victoria Azarenka, BLR
3 - Sorana Cirstea, ROU
3 - Petra Kvitova, CZE
3 - Arantxa Rus, NED
3 - Sloane Stephens, USA
2 - Danielle Collins, USA
2 - Sara Errani,ITA
2 - Camila Giorgi, ITA
2 - Madison Keys, USA
2 - Petra Martic, CRO
2 - Karolina Pliskova, CZE
2 - Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, SVK

**BACKSPIN 2023 COMEBACK-OF-THE-MONTH WINNERS**
JAN (pre-AO): Sofia Kenin, USA
AO: Donna Vekic, CRO
FEB: Luisa Stefani, BRA
MAR: Karolina Muchova, CZE
1Q...VEKIC
APR: Francesca Jones, GBR
MAY: Taylor Townsend, USA
RG: Elina Svitolina, UKR
2Q Clay Court...SVITOLINA
JUN: Katie Boulter, GBR
WI: Elina Svitolina, UKR
2Q Grass Court...SVITOLINA
JUL: Yanina Wickmayer, BEL
AUG (pre-U.S.): Wang Yafan, CHN
[2023 Weekly Comeback Award Wins]
4 - Bianca Andreescu, CAN
4 - Sofia Kenin, USA
4 - Elina Svitolina, UKR
4 - Marketa Vondrousova, CZE
3 - Fiona Ferro, FRA
3 - Karolina Muchova, CZE
3 - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS
3 - Taylor Townsend, USA
2 - Francesca Jones, GBR
2 - Nadia Podoroska, ARG
2 - Sara Sorribes Tormo, ESP
2 - Clara Tauson, DEN

If ghosts aren't real, how do you explain this...?????? pic.twitter.com/rJwwQQVhbo

— ??o?g? (@Yoda4ever) August 31, 2023

TOP QUALIFIER: #15 Wang Yafan/CHN
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #6 Coco Gauff/USA
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2 - Elsa Jacquemot/FRA def. #2 Diana Shnaider/RUS 6-7(5)/7-5/6-3 - down 7-6/5-3, saved 7 MP in 2nd set (trailed 5-4, 40/love)
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 1st Rd. - #32 Elise Mertens/BEL def. Mirjam Bjorklund/SWE 3-6/6-3/7-6(10-3) - down 3 MP at 4-5, love/40 in 3rd, won 4 con. pts to hold; wins TB 10-3
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: #10 Karolina Muchova/CZE (def. WC Hunter)
FIRST SEED OUT: #8 Maria Sakkari/GRE (1r- lost to Masarova/ESP)
FIRST CAREER SLAM MD WINS: Eva Lys/GER, Lily Miyazaki/GBR
PROTECTED RANKING MD WINS: In 3r: Jennifer Brady/USA; Dasha Saville/AUS (2nd Rd.), Patricia Maria Tig/ROU (2nd Rd.)
LUCKY LOSER MD WINS: Yanina Wickmayer/BEL (2nd Rd.)
UPSET QUEENS: United States
REVELATION LADIES: China
NATION OF POOR SOULS: France (1-6 in 1st; 9 of FRA Top 10 out Q/1r)
CRASH & BURN: #8 Maria Sakkari/GRE (3 consecutive slam 1st Rd. losses)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF NEW YORK: #32 Elise Mertens/BEL (5 MP saved 1r/2r; 4-5, love/40 in 3rd vs. Bjorklund/SWE 1r; 2 MP 2nd set TB vs. Collins/USA 2r)
IT ("??"): x
Ms.OPPORTUNITY: x
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: In 3r: Juvan/SLO, Minnen/BEL
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Caroline Wozniacki/DEN (in 3r)
LAST BANNERETTE STANDING: In 3r: Brady, Gauff, Keys, Pegula, Pera, Stearns, Townsend
COMEBACK: Nominees: Wozniacki, Brady
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): x
DOUBLES STAR: x
BIG APPLE BANNERETTE BREAKTHROUGH: Nominees: Stearns, Townsend
BROADWAY-BOUND: Nominees: "Project Coco," "Comeback Caro," "(##) Women & their Babies"
LADY OF THE EVENING: Nominees: Gauff, Wozniacki
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x







All for Day 4. More tomorrow.