Thursday, May 30, 2024

RG.5- Badosa's Back on Track

There was much to clean up in Paris on Thursday.

No, not all the "Iga-bration" banners and such that were prematurely torn up and/or burned as it appeared as if the world #1 would be shipped out of town by Naomi Osaka and on to an early grass court practice. Instead it was because yesterday's schedule was nearly a wash-out, meaning today's was *super* match-packed.

So, of course, the rain again messed with the schedule for a large chunk of the afternoon, and the final daytime contests lasted until 1 a.m.

A nice batch of matches were lined up for the start of the day, though, a stretch during which both #2 Aryna Sabalenka and #4 Elena Rybakina both won handily in straights, keeping their potential SF clash on deck.

Amongst the rest of the mix, the last remaining Spanish woman in the draw -- Paula Badosa, a '21 Roland Garros quarterfinalist -- continued to show that she may just be (finally) healthy enough to inject herself back into the upper echelon WTA discussion (I mean, regarding attention-getting matches *other* than those against her good friend Aryna).



Badosa came into Paris ranked all the way down at #139, a far cry from her #2 spot two springs ago after a calendar year in which she'd reached the RG and Olympics QF, the WTAF and Madrid SF, and returned to the Indian Wells semis a year after winning her biggest title there in '21.

Last year, Badosa was 11-4 on clay (giving her a 36-12 mark on the dirt from 2021-23) after reaching the Rome QF, but then everything changed when she was diagnosed with a stress fracture in her L4 vertebra. With months off anticipated, she missed RG but tried to come back and play through the injury a mere few weeks later at Wimbledon (the lone major she'd play all year, as she'd skipped the AO with an abductor injury), only to retire in the 2nd Round and miss the remainder of the season.

2024 has been a work in progress, as Badosa has slowly worked off the lingering aftereffects of the back injury and her long stretch of inactivity, starting 6-9 and exiting in the 1st Round (to another Spaniard, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro) on clay in Madrid.

But things immediately changed in Rome, where Badosa played into the second week with a trio of wins over Mirra Andreeva, Emma Navarro and Diana Shnaider for her first three-win effort since the same event a year earlier (when she had four, weeks after posting three wins to reach the Charleston QF).

Actually, even before Rome, though Badosa had been just 1-3 on clay in the stretch, there had been some encouraging signs, including multi-surface victories over the returning Simona Halep (Miami HC) and Shnaider (Stuttgart RC), and taking Sabalenka to three sets (Stuttgart) before being forced to retire.

Though Badosa's biggest titles (Indian Wells, Sydney) have come on hard court, her best slam results have come in Paris. Her QF run at RG is her best result in any major, and she came into Thursday sporting a 10-3 record in the season's second slam after she staged a comeback from 6-4/4-2 vs. #26 Katie Boulter to win in three in the final women's singles match of the 1st Round.

Badosa added another win to her totals today, defeating Yulia Putintseva 4-6/6-1/7-5 in what was her fifth consecutive three-set match. So far, she's 4-1 in those contests, and has gone the distance in six of seven matches since the Sabalenka (non-back related) retirement, so everthing seems to be holding up rather nicely at this point.

Of course, now we get "the usual," i.e. yet another match-up with Sabalenka, the third meeting between the two in a little over two months.



At the very least, we'll get some nice photos out of Episode III of their 2024 series. And, who knows, with a healthy Badosa maybe we'll actually get a good match, too.




=DAY 5 NOTES=
...while all of the Top 5 women remain as things head to the 3rd Round, some significant seeds began to fall on Thursday.



#18 Marta Kostyuk managed to slip out the back door in the 1st Round despite nearly being down 5-0 in the 3rd, but her prison break wasn't as (likely) successful on a longer-term basis as that of still-tournament-favorite Iga Swiatek. The Ukrainian was ousted 7-5/6-4 today by Donna Vekic as the Croat reaches the 3rd Round in Paris for the first time since 2019.

Even the Pastries got into the act on Day 5, as wild card Chloe Paquet rallied from 6-3/3-1 down, won a 2nd set TB, then came back from a break down again in the 3rd to win a MTB vs. #32 Katerina Siniakova, reaching her first slam 3rd Round in nine career MD appearances in majors. She'd been 1-8 in her slam career coming into this RG, with eight straight MD slam losses (7 con. 1r exits) dating back to 2018 (yet the FFT still found her worthy of a WC... y'all got lucky with this one!).



In the deciding 3rd set, Paquet had taken a 2-0 lead, only to see the Czech find her way out front, going up a break at 4-3. But the advantage didn't last through the next game, and things went to a MTB. Again Paquet raced to an early lead, taking a 5-0 edge and then staying just a step ahead of Siniakova as she nipped at her heels the rest of the way. 5-0 became 5-4. Then 7-4 became 7-6. But Paquet never relinquished her lead, taking it on her first MP to win 3-6/7-6(2)/7-6(10-6).

...after Swiatek's escape yesterday, naturally, two of the big potential road blocks on her side of the draw went by the wayside today, as #11 Danielle Collins and #9 Alona Ostapenko both were sent out in three-set upsets.

Collins seemingly had a win secured vs. Serbian qualifier Olga Danilovic. After winning a no-break 1st set via a TB, Collins came back from 3-1 down in the 2nd to lead 5-3. She served for the win at 5-4, but dropped the game. Collins had two BP chances at 5-5, but Danilovic held her off, and then broke the Bannerette to knot the match on her third SP in the game. After consecutive breaks in games 2 & 3 in the 3rd, Danilovic closed the match with a break of serve to end things at 6-7(3)/7-5/6-4.



Collins closes out her spring clay campaign at 16-4 with her earliest tournament exit since Indian Wells, while Danilovic improves to 15-6 with her second straight RG 3rd Round run (she's won at least one match in all five of her career slam MD). The Serb's win over Collins in her second career Top 10 victory (first since 2018 when she def. Julia Goerges en route to her maiden title in her very first tour-level MD in Moscow -- as a lucky loser).

For the third year in a row, Danilovic is a Last Qualifier Standing in Paris, only this time it's a solo honor.

Meanwhile, the player with the best career head-to-head (4-0) vs. Swiatek, Ostapenko, saw her seventh consecutive RG come to a "premature" end since her title run in 2017 as Clara Tauson took down the Latvian, 7-6(4)/4-6/6-3.



After winning seven matches to claim the crown in '17, Ostapenko has gone 5-7 in Paris from 2018-24. She hasn't advanced past the 3rd Round. She's also cooled off considerably after her 16-3 (0-3 vs. Vika) start this year, with this making her 9-8 since.

On the other hand, after recent injury and financial issues, the Dane is starting to heat up. She's already climbed back into the Top 100 this season, won a match in Melbourne, and starred in BJK play with a Top 10 win over Maria Sakkari. From Miami qualifying forward, she's gone 16-4. The win over Ostapenko isn't a Top 10 victory, though, as she's actually ranked #11 in the current rankings despite her #9 seed in Paris.

Tauson has often posted some of her best results on the biggest stages. In addition to today and her win over Sakkari while playing for Denmark, she's now recorded four upsets of seeded players (as well as a former slam finalist) in majors: at the 2020 RG (#21 Brady in her slam MD debut), 2022 AO (#6 Kontaveit, then she pushed #27 Collins to 3), 2023 RG (unseeded Fernandez), 2023 U.S. Open (#27 Potapova) and now #9 Ostapenko.

...later, Irina-Camelia Begu took out #27 Linda Noskova to reach her third straight 3rd Round in Paris (and seventh in the past ten), and Peyton Stearns downed the third Top 10 seed to go out so far, #10 Dasha Kasatkina, a semifinalist at RG two years ago.



A pair of Hordettes went out late (the 7th and 8th seeds to lose today). Ana Bogdan sent former RG finalist #20 Anastasia Palvyuchenkova home (or to the grass), and Bianca Andreescu rallied from a set down to defeat #23 Anna Kalinskaya. A little surprisingly, considering she seems to be off tour far more than she's on it, Andreescu has reached the 3rd Round at back-to-back RG, in three of the last five slams, and four of seven (and she didn't even play two of them - '23 US/'24 AO).



...in the final match of the day (well, literally *morning*, as it ended as the clock struck 1 o'clock in Paris), the ninth women's seed of Day 5 was ousted. It was #19 Victoria Azarenka, who'd dropped just one game in her 1st Round match. Of course, her opponent was Mirra Andreeva, so that counts as a really unfortunate draw for Azarenka, who's played pretty well in '24.

17-year old Andreeva is closer in age to Vika's son Leo than she is to 34-year old Vika, so it has to sting (especially with them wearing the same outfit... Mirra and Vika, I mean, not Mirra and Leo). As per Tennis Channel, it's Azarenka's first loss to a teenager in a major since the 2008 U.S. Open, when she (also a teen) fell to a teenage Dane named Caroline Wozniacki.

The two battled back and forth with breaks of serve in the 3rd set, with their combined return games turning the tables on the server for six straight games (game #6-#11) before Andreeva, serving for the match for a second time, finally held on her fourth MP. She'd led 40/love, but Vika made her work for it (as she's been known to do). Andreeva won 6-3/3-6/7-5 to reach her fourth slam 3rd Round in five career MD.







...INTERESTING THAT THE TOUR TWITTER ACCOUNT SAYS THIS ABOUT POST-MATCH ACTIONS... ON DAY 5:



...since, well, you know.


...SO... ON DAY 5:



And yet the NYC fans have the "bad reputation" for behavior (I'm not counting the sort who glue their feet to the floor in that defense, of course). In truth, the Paris fans have largely been a-holes -- with or without alcohol -- for a while now.









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*RECENT RG "REVELATION LADIES" WINNERS' NATION/REGION*
2016 France
2017 Muslim women
2018 Romania
2019 Russia
2020 Romania
2021 Czech Republic
2022 Czech Republic
2023 Russia
2024 China

*RECENT RG "UPSET QUEENS" NATION/REGION*
2015 Croatia
2016 South America
2017 South America
2018 Ukraine
2019 Russia
2020 Australia
2021 Slovenia
2022 France
2023 Italy
2024 United States

*RECENT RG "LAST QUALIFIER STANDING"*
[2017]
(4th) Petra Martic/CRO
[2018]
(2nd) C.Dolehide/USA, A.Dulgheru/ROU, M.Duque-Marino/COL, M.Frech/POL, G.Garcia-Perez/ESP & R.Peterson/SWE
[2019]
(4th) Aliona Bolsova/ESP
[2020]
(SF) Nadia Podoroska/ARG
[2021]
(2nd) Hailey Baptiste/USA, Anhelina Kalinina/UKR & Varvara Lepchenko/USA
[2022]
(2nd) Fernanda Contreras/MEX, Olga Danilovic/SRB, Aleksandra Krunic/SRB, Donna Vekic/CRO
[2023]
(3rd) Mirra Andreeva/RUS, Olga Danilovic/SRB, Kayla Day/USA, Clara Tauson/DEN
[2024]
(in 3rd) Olga Danilovic/SRB

*RECENT RG "CRASH-AND-BURN" WINNERS*
2015 Simona Halep, ROU (2nd Rd.)
2016 Angelique Kerber, GER (1st Rd./AO champ)
2017 Angelique Kerber, GER (1st Rd., earliest RG #1 ever)
2018 Alona Ostapenko, LAT (1st Rd., earliest RG DC since '05)
2019 Alona Ostapenko, LAT (1st Rd.; zero RG wins before/after '17 title)
2020 U.S. Open '20 SF (Osaka DNP, Brady 1r, Serena w/d 2r, Azarenka 2r - in 24 hrs)
2021 Ash Barty, AUS and Naomi Osaka, JPN (#1 seed ret. 2r; #2 seed w/d 2r)
2022 Barbora Krejcikova, CZE (1st/DC) and Ons Jabuer, TUN (hottest non-Iga on clay)
2023 Barbora Krejcikova, CZE (0-2 at RG since winning '21 title)
2024 Maria Sakkari, GRE (1st Rd. in 4 of 5 slams)



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TOP QUALIFIER: Jule Niemeier/GER
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #2 Aryna Sabalenka/BLR (7 games lost in 1r/2r)
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2: Raluca Serban/CYP def. Dominika Salkova/CZE 3-6/6-4/7-6(13-11) - both served for win in 3rd, w/ Salkova 2 MP, then third in TB; Serban wins 24-point MTB
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 2nd Rd. - #1 Swiatek/POL def. (PR) Osaka/JPN 7-6(1)/1-6/7-5 - Osaka led in 3rd at 4-1 w/ pt. for 5-1, 5-2 up, served at 5-3 and had MP
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr.-WC): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Donna Vekic/CRO (def. Tsurenko/UKR ret.)
FIRST SEED OUT: #29 Veronika Kudermetova/RUS (1r: Bouzkova/CZE)
FIRST SLAM MD WINS: Moyuka Uchijima/JPN (2nd MD)
UPSET QUEENS: United States
REVELATION LADIES: China
NATION OF POOR SOULS: Germany (1-5 1st Rd.)
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: Olga Danilovic/SRB (in 3rd Rd.)
LUCKY LOSER WINS: 2nd Rd.: Hailey Baptiste/USA, Jana Fett/CRO
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Chloe Paquet/FRA (in 3rd Rd.)
PROTECTED RANKING WINS: In 3rd Rd.: Andreescu/CAN, Begu/ROU; 2nd Rd.: Amanda Anisimova/USA, Naomi Osaka/JPN
LAST PASTRY STANDING: In 3rd Rd.: Gracheva, Paquet
Ms./Mademoiselle OPPORTUNITY: x
IT "TBD": x
COMEBACK PLAYER: x
CRASH & BURN: #6 Maria Sakkari (lost 1st Rd. 4 of 5 slams)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF PARIS: Iga Swiatek/POL (2nd Rd.: down 4-1 -- pt. for 5-1 -- and 5-2 vs. Osaka in 3rd; Osaka MP at 5-3)
DOUBLES STAR: x
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): x
Mademoiselle/Madame OF THE EVENING: x
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x
Légion de Lenglen: Nominee: Cornet farewell tournament
Coupe LA PETIT TAUREAU: Nominee: Iga attempt at first three-peat since Henin in 2007






All for Day 5. More tomorrow.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 7:21 PM 

2 Comments:

Blogger khan35 said...

The Queen's path to the title has got more clearer .

With Vika gone, I don't have a horse in this race anymore. But I must say Swiatek is starting to grow on me.

Fri May 31, 05:07:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

Vondrousova (QF) could be "interesting," at least, and -- if she can make it that far (potential SF) -- Tauson has the sort of power that could be a problem.

Fri May 31, 05:13:00 PM EDT  

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