BV '08: #6-10

Well, we did it again. At about this time last year Tennisrulz Head Honcho Pierre Cantin and I had the audacity to agree on our preseason pick for 2007's #1-ranked player.

Then, just as had occurred in 2005 when we both wrong-headedly chose Svetlana Kuznetsova (on the heels of her '04 US Open win) as our top-ranked woman, our selection -- Maria Sharapova -- suffered through a frustrating season littered with pitfalls and disappointments. "The Kuznetsova Curse" had struck again.

After twice was most definitely NOT very nice, will there be a third time that won't be a charm, as well? Will we now place the target on the back of another unsuspecting player for 2008, making her the focus of the ire of the tennis gods who seek to trample her hopes and dreams simply because they're offended by the notion of us thinking we're SO SMART that we can predict the outcome of the season before it has even begun?

Well, it's time to begin the process of finding out:



Todd = gold
Pierre = green

9. Agnes Szavay, HUN
10. Shahar Peer, ISR

TODD SPIKER: Szavay (2008 IQ Girl herself) went from outside the Top 200 to inside the Top 20 in 2007, showing big-point gutsiness and a belief that she belonged (winning two titles and making the final of another, then reaching the US Open QF as an unseeded player). Like managing to survive the trip DOWN Mt. Everest after reaching the summit, it's perhaps a tougher challenge to make the comparatively shorter leap from the Top 20 to the Top 10 over the course of a WTA season that is essentially a war of attrition. But Backspin is going all in on the season plot point about "The Valkyrie" being a szensation in '08, so her appearance here is practically "contractually obligated."

PIERRE CANTIN: Hmmm very optimistic, Todd. I agree Agnes Szavay is an up-and-comer and will be a force to be reckoned with... but I'm not sure who you did not include in your top 10 to have her in there.

TS: Oh, I'm sure I'll miss on many of these picks, but I like going with the young potential newcomers for the tail end of the Top 10.

Speaking of, "The Corporal" is sort of in the same situation as Szavay, trying to make the leap into the Top 10 from her #17 position. But at least Peer proved over the course of the '07 season that she could maintain the Top 20 ranking she earned at the end of '06. She came within one held service game of reaching the Australian Open SF last year, and if not for some untimely meetings with the Williams sisters she might already be situated in the Top 10. I'm thinking the odds are with her this season.

PC: Again Todd, not sure I disagree about how Peer "could" be in the top 10... but you had to take out a better player in my opinion to fit Peer in. Actually, I could understand Szavay a bit more, she's a young talent, will be better in 2008 than 2007 for sure... but Peer? What improvement are you counting on exactly?

TS: Well, hopefully not having to play Serena in Australia, Venus in Memphis or Serena in Miami as she did last year in three of the five tournaments the sisters won. That'd help a little. Haha.

9. Amelie Mauresmo, FRA
10. Jelena Jankovic, SRB

PC: Wow, what a drop I've predicted for Jelena Jankovic and keep in mind that I've got nothing against her. I mean, she was probably my best pick last year (if you exclude that "lucky" Clijsters outside the top 10 pick... right Todd?? hahaha).

TS: Might I add here that the most recent edition of Tennis magazine cracked wise that Clijsters' 2005 US Open win was "one of the sport's great monuments to underachievement." I was a bit jealous of that line, I must say.

PC: Haha, again you are changing subjects a bit though, I'm talking about the prediction which you had so much fun laughing at last year, the one not having Kim in the top 10. :) But yes, you were in on that line...I agree. :)

TS: I just wanted to get that in now since I won't be able to have as much fun with Kim during '08. And as far as that pick, I guess I should have known that giving Clijsters the benefit of the doubt -- I picked her #4, remember -- probably wouldn't work out all that well for me since it was such an unusual act on my part. But, as I said then, I won't apologize for saying nice things about her at the time, since it was probably about time that I did it at that point before she was gone. Not that it got me anywhere, of course. Oh, well.

PC: Well, while we're trying to get that in, I'm anxious to get a question in... where will you spot Nadia Petrova this year? She was the subject of many heated debates as well, I think I was pretty much right on there too. :)

TS: You'll have to wait on that one. Though I still maintain that her '07 season wasn't as bad as it seemed on the surface, and it was only her slam results that let her down and cost her her Top 10 spot (of course, those ARE the most important ones, huh?).

I'm not sure we're going to be working up quite as much of a lather about any of our picks this year, but I could be wrong. The Serbs don't have as long a "paper trail" as the Belgians, at least not yet, so it's difficult to get too worked up about possible disagreements about where their careers are going at this point.

PC: So anyway, this is nothing against Jelena. She just showed me a few scarier aspects of her game last year, mostly in her mental game as well as her patience against tougher players. I also think competition will be a lot stronger in 2008 for the top 10 spots and thus a few of the players will be more in action in 2008 than in 2007. This will surely hurt Jelena Jankovic the most since you could argue the best part of her profile is how much more she plays than anyone else on tour!

TS: It'll be interesting to see if she holds to her word and cuts back her schedule.

PC: Hmmm I see her cutting it a bit, but I think she'll be looking at all the points she needs to gain to stay in the top 10 and will remain one of the most active players on tour, although yes, a little less active.

TS: By the way, rather than defending her Auckland title this week, Jankovic is playing in Perth. I'm sure if that's a hint about her '08 priorities or not, though.

PC: Hmmm what to say about Amelie? She had a very tough season and will need to forget all about it and rebuild her confidence. She had many injuries and will need to play a lot more in 2008. But let's not forget, she is the girl who (if we exclude RG...) is about #2 in the world on clay, arguably can beat anyone on grass and is very decent on hard courts... how could I NOT put her in the top 10, right?

TS: You know, even while you've included her at #9, I have a bad feeling that we both might be underestimating Mauresmo simply because she's been so out of sight, out of mind for most of the past year. How quickly we forget, huh?

PC: True... but at least I put her on my list! From the way you're talking, you put Szavay and Peer in front of her???

TS: Like I said, new blood, baby. New blood.

6. Jelena Jankovic, SRB
7. Nicole Vaidisova, CZE
8. Lindsay Davenport, USA

TS: And here I thought I was going to be the one marking Jankovic down in these picks. Jelena wore herself out last season and vows not to do it again this time around. We'll see, but it's important to note that many of Jankovic's worst results in '07 came after she uncharacteristically took some extra time off. Guess she's going to have to learn to love practice just a little bit more, huh? It should be quite an intriguing balancing act, and I'm thinking she'll take a small step back before she can go forward again.

PC: Yes, I agree with you, I think she has the talent to be top 3 or top 5... but will just run into a bit of a wall in 2008.

TS: We agree... I'm not sure I like the sound of that. But, considering our history, Jelena might be ready to have a super season. Haha.

Who's next?

Oh, yeah... "Mrs. Stepanek?" While we get used to that potential prospect, let's just choose not to ponder what happened to the last Czech-born player who was Radek's fiancee? Vaidisova has been on the cusp of something very good for a while now, and 2008 is as good a time as any for her to finally put those grand slam attacks of nerves in her past.

Lindsay's back, but will she be as good as ever? It's one thing to be fully healthy after not playing for nearly a year, as she was during her 13-1, two-title run at the end of 2007. But can her body hold up over the course of an entire season? Intelligent scheduling will be more key to her season than any other player this side of Jankovic, and the thought here is that her veteran sensibility will enable her to find a way to be right in the thick of things again as she tries to get that elusive twilight-of-her-career grand slam title before she hangs up the rackets for good.

PC: Well looks like we agree on Vaidisova. Maybe this could be a reversed curse and she could end up being in the top 3-4 players? Think that's possible?

TS: Too much agreeing going on here, I say.

PC: Lindsay has impressed me ever since joining the tour, I think she has always been a fairly balanced person and tennis was always a part of who she is... so seeing her go 13-1 last year was proof enough for me that she would be a force to be reckoned with in 2008... I think you have underestimated her body.

TS: Maybe, though I said that because of what she said last year about being completely healthy for the first time in almost too long for her to remember. That's one of those that I hope I AM wrong about, actually. It'd be a great story.

6. Ana Ivanovic, SRB
7. Nicole Vaidisova, CZE
8. Anna Chakvetadze, RUS

PC: Steady, steady... Chakvetadze's been compared to Martina Hingis, and I think in a way, that's correct, mostly in terms of her controlled agression. She has a very steady game and will rarely lose to lower ranked players in 2008. The big thing for Anna will be to take more chances against the top players. She's had chances in some matches, and had less of a chance in others. She's got the game, but can she work on a few more weapons to really have a shot with the top 10 players? I'm saying yes.

TS: Should we mention the incident at the family home here? You know, just to get a head start on it since I'm sure it'll be talked to death in Melbourne.

PC: Hmm yes, I guess it's a good thing she's in Singapore and will have the chance to clear things up a little before even heading towards Australia hey? But yeah, just a terrible incident. She did lose 6-0, 7-6 against Sharapova in her exhibition but for some reason she does not seem to be able to push Sharapova around as much as she could, so I don't draw much of a conclusion here.

TS: If all the Big Babes stay healthy this year, Anna's going to have her work cut out staying in the Top 10.

PC: Ahh... Nicole, the girl who's been disapointing me for a couple of years now. I am still a believer, I do think it will all come down to how well she can serve and return in 2008. She needs to start points as the aggressor as her defence has not progressed as much as hoped, especially when you compare her to Ana Ivanovic who I thought was even further along from Nicole about one year ago.

TS: So we've now both come to the conclusion that AnaIvo is the best of the Serbs then, at least at this moment in time?

PC: Hahaha, yes, I think it's fair to say that we agree on something else, although who knows how that will turn out hey?

Speaking of Ana, I think she'll have a tough time in 2008, well not that tough... but it will not be easy to continue her progression that has been simply spectacular over the past 12-18 months. I think Ana will have a little more success in slams than she did in 2007, but surfaces like clay will be a challenge, especially defending her RU in Roland-Garros.

TS: Hmmm, so far no Maria, Justine or Williamses from either of us. (No Nadia, either, as I'm sure you've no doubt noticed... you don't think I'll be playing Russian Roulette with her predicted ranking again, do you?) I'd make some conclusions now about that, but after you didn't include Clijsters in your Top 10 last year I'll reserve any comments until after everything is official.

PC: Prudent yes... but I think it's fair to say Nadia will not be part of my top 5. If she is in your's I'll be a bit shocked honestly. She got you in such a defensive point for the whole 2007 season. :) I think it's fair to assume that Justine and Maria will make the top 5 on both of our lists... Williams sisters are less clear...we'll find out soon enough though.

TS: Well, that's the end of Part One of this year's Volley. So, I guess we'll have to wait for Part Two to see whether or not the "Kuznetsova Curse" is donning a hockey mask and carrying a bloody axe for yet another season. I'm predicting that we'll put another target on someone's back. How about you?

PC: Hmmm yes, although I think most tennis followers have the same girl on the top of their lists for 2008... but who knows right?

TS: Maybe that will protect us... err, I mean her.

Next time we'll be releasing our #1-5 picks, as well as a "Second Ten" and a handful of "outsiders" who didn't make either list, but might end up there at the end of 2008 (mostly, I think, I suggested we do this just so that we don't look TOO stupid when we swing-and-miss on some of our Top 10 picks... we can say, "hey, at least I had her in my INSERT APPROPRIATE LIST HERE"). Plus, I had an unusually large number of players under consideration for these picks this year.

PC: Risky move though... can you imagine if a player makes the top 10 and she wasn't anywhere on our lists??? Embarassing to say the least... Maybe I'm just feeling a bit cautious?

TS: Well, the only year-end Top 10 players last season who weren't at least in the Top 20 the season before were both named Williams, so they won't be climbing the ladder in such a way again. The year before, the only one was Hingis.

PC: I'm also looking forward to the list of outsiders... is it me or does 2008 seem like it could be the most exciting year in a long time? If not at the top 2-3 spots, then from 3-4 to 15-20.

TS: Especially if the Williams sisters stay healthy, and Davenport comes back strong.

PC: Should be a great year!!!

TS: Curse or no Curse.

PC: I'm already thinking about the reverse curse on Vaidisova... could she be offended we only picked her at #7? Anyway, let's keep this discussion going in the next column. :)

TS: All for now.




...and we walk the plank for the first time in '08.




GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA (III-Hard)
07 FINAL: Safina d. Hingis
08 TOP: Vaidisova/Petrova
=============================
SF: Vaidisova d. Mauresmo; Szavay d. Peer
FINAL: Szavay d. Vaidisova

...again, I'm "contractually obligated" to take Szavay in Week 1.


AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND (IV-Hard)
07 FINAL: Jankovic d. Zvonareva
08 TOP: Zvonareva/Kirilenko
=============================
SF: Zvonareva d. Daniilidou; Davenport d. Paszek
FINAL: Davenport d. Zvonareva

...Lindsay would be 18-1 in her comeback with a title here.


HONG KONG, CHINA (exhibition)
07 FINAL: Clijsters d. Sharapova
08 TOP: Ivanovic/Sharapova
=============================
FINAL: Sharapova d. Ivanovic


=GOLD COAST=
SF: Vaidisova d. Mauresmo; Azarenka d. Peer
FINAL: Vaidisova d. Azarenka

=AUCKLAND=
SF: Zvonareva d. Rezai; Davenport d. Kirilenko
FINAL: Davenport d. Zvonareva

=HONG KONG=
Sharapova d. V.Williams


ALSO:

HOPMAN CUP XX; PERTH, AUSTRALIA (Hard)
07 FINAL: Russia d. Spain
08 TOP GROUP SEEDS: Serbia/USA



NEXT UP: The Rest of Europe & Volley, Part 2

Read more...

2008's Most Intriguing Question: Is the Valkyrie About to Rise?

The captivating Valkyrie soars over the battlefield atop her majestic steed, governing the conflict while diligently meting out the fates of the warriors below. Her task completed, she plucks their bodies from the earth and conducts their souls directly to Valhalla.

Each season several spirited tennis teenagers poke their heads from their protective shelters, testing to see if the environment is amenable to a successful foraging trip into the great wide open landscape of the WTA tour. A few even manage to collect a few moments of early glory before scampering back to safety. Alas, some never manage to gather the confidence, game or ability to surprise opponents in quite the same way again, and their early prosperity turns out to be something akin to beginner's luck.



Don't expect Agnes Szavay to be lumped into that crowd, though. She's set to become one of the exceptional players who use their initial experiences as a primer for how to chase down even more success. Over the past twelve months, the soon-to-be-19-year old Hungarian has ascended from #207 to as high as #19 in the world, and is the second youngest player in the Top 20 (she's just four months older than Nicole Vaidisova).

The WTA battlefield is about to become even more perilous, for the rise of the Valkyrie has already begun.



Actually, the girl who admires Lance Armstrong's fight has been lurking in plain sight within the sport's shadows for a couple of seasons. In 2005, she won the Roland Garros junior crown and was the Girls RU at the Australian Open. At 16, in just her third WTA main draw, she reached her first tour-level singles SF in Modena in July of that year. After being slowed by a bought with mono in '06, Szavay proceeded this past season to make her own distinctive mark on the women's game.

A SF in Budapest in April was followed by a $75K challenger win in Zagreb in May. By June, she'd climbed to #53, then followed up her qualifying run at Roland Garros with another at Wimbledon. She then claimed her first tour title in Palermo soon afterward.



But it was on the hard court circuit that the budding Valkyrie put together something of a "Late Szummer of Szavay" variety show as she knocked off three Top 10 players, nearly won New Haven, reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals as an unseeded player in just her third slam main draw (upsetting Nadia Petrova along the way), then became the season's youngest two-time titlist when she flashed inherent big-time mettle against Jelena Jankovic in the Beijing final, erasing a match point with a nervy second serve ace and winning twelve of the final fourteen games.

It was during this stretch that the skills that Szavay brings to the battlefield became apparent, with impressive pop on a serve in crunch time and a startlingly effective two-handed backhand being chief among them. But maybe the most important weapon she brandished may have been what was going on between her ears. Ironically, it was a trait most clearly seen in a tournament Szavay failed to win.

With an air of impeccable assurance, she virtually stalked the court in New Haven In August with the preternaturally calm demeanor of a player capable of far greater things in the near future. After qualifying, she knocked off the likes of Sam Stosur, Daniela Hantuchova and Alona Bondarenko to reach the final. Then, up a set against Svetlana Kuznetsova and looking poised to become the first qualifier in WTA history to win a top Tier event (her tournament set totals showed her with a 15-1 advantage), she was forced to retire with a back injury as the rigors of playing her eighth match in nine days finally was too much for her body to overcome.

But no matter the ultimate outcome of the New Haven event (or her unsuccessful QF rematch with the Contessova at the US Open just a few weeks later), that Szavay outshined so many and was doing the same to the former grand slam champion and world #2 was indisputable. Every inch of her face bore the definitive countenance of a future champion.

The Valkyrie belonged... and she knew it. And for a young player at this station in her career, that's more than half the battle.

Two weeks later in Beijing, as if to further prove a point, in her third singles final in a two-month span, Szavay overcame a 7-6/5-1 deficit to upend Jankovic in the final for her first Top 5 victory. It won't be her last.

Szavay wasn't exactly born into the breadbasket of tennis in Kiskuhalas, Hungary. Attila may have been a Hun, but the area has never produced a truly top-level female tennis talent. Oh, a few Hungarians were tour champions before the Valkyrie arrived, four-time title winner Andrea Temesvari being the most successful of the bunch, topping out at #10 in the rankings in 1983 at age 17 (the #2-ranked Hungarian at the moment is #124 Melinda Czink). At the start of 2007, Szavay's tour bio stated that her goal was to be a Top 20 player. So, after accomplishing that goal this past September, it appears that she'll have to re-think her objective for '08. Might I suggest single digits?



The fortunes of talented rising players are often governed as much (if not more) by their self-belief and emotions as by their improving abilities (see Jelena Dokic). Questions about Szavay's body's capacity to withstand the labors of a full season (back and thigh injuries were incurred during her szeason's fabulous final stanza) could be a legitimate obstacle to greater immediate success (just ask Vaidisova how quickly a potential breakthrough season can degenerate into a frustrating one), but at least 2007 seemed to hint that her advancement will not be hindered by what is traditionally a young player's biggest adversary -- herself. It's impossible to get past the visage of assured belonging on Szavay's face during her New Haven heroics, or the imbued confidence that produced the comeback in Beijing. She seems set to take off... sooner rather than later.

This coming season, more and more top players will be forced to warily keep their eyes to the sky in an attempt to avoid the Valkyrie's brand of natural selection. Some will be successful in their gameplans, but many will feel her wrath. By the end of her szeason-long production in 2008, Valhalla could be quite crowded.

Livestzrong, Agnes.



**DID YOU KNOW?**
...there might be another pair of WTA sisters making a splash before long? To the list that includes Williams, Radwanska and Bondarenko siblings, we might have to add the Szavay sisters in a few years.

Yes, Agnes has a tennis-playing little sis, 14-year old Blanka.

Oh, and their dad Zsolt says that she's BETTER than Agnes. Of course, we've heard this sort of thing before... from some guy named Richard, talking about a little lady named Serena.

Uh-oh.



*2008 PREDICTIONS*
...from here, the crystal ball says that Szavay's stomping grounds in 2008 will become more varied and exclusive. She has few points to defend from the first half of the season, and has a great chance to make a run for the lower portion of the Top 10 before heading back to North America for the hard court circuit there next szummer. Whether or not she can fashion anything close to a sequel to her '07 heroics will determine if she'll end up in the Top 10 once the season concludes.

I'm going to say she will (we'll soon see if Tennisrulz Head Honcho Pierre Cantin agrees in "Backspin Volley"), with three titles (at least one a Tier II or better), multiple slam QF-or-better results and maybe even an appearance in the YEC in the cards.

Oh, and look for her and doubles partner Vladimira Uhlirova to reach a slam final, as well, after last season winning a title in Budapest, reaching two additional finals and the US Open SF.

As the season is about to start, Szavay already has something to smile about before she turns 19 on December 29. Earlier this month in Budapest, she defeated Ana Ivanovic in an exhibition. Sure, it means absolutely nothing... but she'll surely remember it if she comes up against AnaIvo in a big match during the opening stages of the '08 season.

It would violate the Valkyrie Code to do otherwise, after all.


All for now.



NEXT UP: The Rest of Europe

Read more...

2008 I.O.: Russia

Sure, there was already a first Russian revolution (no, not THAT one) ...



...before the one that has taken place on the WTA tour over the past decade, but this more recent Russian tennis era -- unlike the one cut short by the Communist state back in the 1970's (here's a little bit about could-have-been-a-star Natasha Chmyreva, a grand slam semifinalist at 16, and if you can get your hands on a copy of the May '07 issue of Tennis magazine, you'd have a very interesting read, as well) -- has been allowed to fully blossom to its full potential.

And, my, has it ever.

Last season, the now common Russian tennis numbers are nonetheless remarkable. Two players in the Top 5. Three in the Top 10. Six in the Top 20. Nine in the Top 50. Fifteen in the Top 100. Twelve singles titles in total from eight different players. Twenty-seven finals from eleven different woman. Fifty-three semifinals, nearly double the nation (France) ranked second for the season. Oh, and Team Russia won its third Fed Cup title in four seasons, too.

And it says even more about the depth and quality of the Hordette legion that it all happened in a year when the most well-known and decorated member of the group (no Hordette has won more career titles than her sixteen) had what by her standards was nothing short of a supremely frustrating and disappointing season. Just months after seeming to solidify her position in the game with her "exquisite" US Open win, Maria Sharapova was forced to tip toe through a virtual minefield of obstacles in 2007... and in a departure from past seasons, this time she usually DIDN'T rise above the danger (more on that in a moment).

Scarily, looking at the list of potential NextGen Hordette stars, in a few years there might be even MORE Russian women at or near the top of the game than there already are as the 2008 season beckons. Four of the top eight juniors in the world hail from Mother Russia, so there seems to be no coming abatement in the waves of Marias, Anastasias, Annas or Ksenias (the latest "it" name, it appears) upon the WTA shores.



Hmmm, with so much talent, wouldn't some version of this Russian hegemony have occurred with or without a certain Miss Kournikova leading the way, as long as the fall of the Soviet system occurred as it did?



Maybe, maybe not (and, no, this isn't a tease for a future edition of Backspin "What If"). But if world events had been different oh so many years ago, maybe instead of "Anna's Army" it would have been "Natasha's Masses" (for lack of a better moniker). Either way, it seems that the Russians were always coming... it was just a matter of when they got here.


CAN SHARAPOVA BE SUPER AGAIN?
From Kim Clijsters' voluntary swan dive into history to Martina Hingis' horrifyingly inappropriate exit (at least for now) from the game, you'd think it'd be impossible to find a more vexing story from the 2007 season.

You'd THINK so, but actually it's pretty easy to put a finger on it. Maria Sharapova's stunning trip from a legacy-building US Open winner last September to a confidence-lacking, sore-shouldered sometimes also-ran for most of the last twelve months certainly qualifies as a head-scratcher. I mean, she was ONLY the #5 player in the world last season.

(pause here for the collective group eye roll)

Only the Supernova (not even Venus or Serena, when you think about it... considering neither of them have finished a year in the Top 5 since 2003) could have a year like she did in '07 and have it be considered a "failure." After all, she won the US Open Series, was RU in Oz and at the YEC, won a Tier I in San Diego and reached a career-best SF at Roland Garros. She was 14-5 against Top 20 players in 2007, and holds a career 29-11 edge against the Russians who currently reside in the Top 25.



But, then again, she WAS 1-3 in finals (her lowest title total for a season since before she claimed her first crown during the '03 season), including her destruction at the hands of Serena in Melbourne just days after nearly being euthanized on the court by the Extreme Heat and Camille Pin. And there were the season-long shoulder problems that turned her serve from a weapon into an unreliable liability that lacked the big-point pop that characterized her slam-winning runs. Then when Agnieszka Radwanska silently taunted and psyched Sharapova out of her US Open title defense in the 3rd Round, the Supernovic aura wasn't just tarnished, but in serious need of refurbishing.



But, just in the nick of time, Venus Williams pulled out of the YEC, opening up a slot for Sharapova, who'd been beaten out for the eighth and final Points Race position by Daniela Hantuchova. Sensing a rare opportunity to write a completely different coda for her season, Sharapova looked like the Supernova again. Her serve was on. Her aura was back. She reached the final before finally losing to Justine Henin in what would have been a classic slam final had it occurred somewhere other than Madrid.

So is the REAL Maria back? Is she fully healthy now? Have all the kinks in the serve been worked out?

We may find out in Melbourne in January, precisely where the path of her ultimately rocky '07 season experienced its initial humbling rough patches. With the Williamses' "year-after" potential always up in the air (and one wrong step from being a washout), slam-winning comebacks by Amelie Mauresmo and Lindsay Davenport only intriguing theories at this point in the season, and the crop of new young stars still largely unproven in late-stage slam matches, the opportunity for that Justine-vs.-Maria season-long tete-a-tete that we missed out on last year until the final match of '07 could become a reality in 2008.

It's a pretty safe bet that La Petit Taureau will still be playing on a few concluding weekends at the slams and/or Olympics. If Maria joins her, Madrid might have been just the beginning.



WEIRD SCIENCE:
If Russian coins had three sides, the faces on them would be Anna Chakvetadze, Nadia Petrova and Svetlana Kuznetsova.

All right, all right. Maybe that's a ham-fisted way of trying to tie these three players together. But, think about it, if only some Russian mad scientist could find a way to merge these three players' best qualities into one SuperHordette, you'd have a player who'd... well, be a lot like Serena Williams was during her "Serena Slam" period.

Ah, where's the old, rule-bending, gene-splicing Soviet school of sports science when you need it?

Chakvetadze, Petrova and Kuznetsova each have individually admirable traits, but they also currently must fight at least one flaw that holds them back and prevents them from being something more than a Top 10 player... something more Supernovian, if you will.

Chakvetadze, no doubt, is a "money" player. She's 6-0 in career tour singles finals (halfway to Smashnovaville!), including a 4-0 mark last season. She won 59 matches in '07, went 3-1 in Fed Cup, reached QF at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros, and SF at the US Open and YEC. Yet, even while she bristles when the subject arises and likes to mention how her game has more pop than that other player she's most often compared to, she suffers at the hands of the game's best players just as that Swiss Miss did in her later years. When the Doll faces the Big Babes (and Justine Henin, who's in her own pound-for-pound category) in the Top 8, she's just 10-19 (4-9 in '07), 4-17 if you subtract her 6-2 career mark against Jelena Jankovic. She's put together a great last season and a half, but reaching "the next level" might take something more than Chakvetadze is capable of attaining.

Meanwhile, Petrova has the varied game, surface versatility and power to take down the top players. And sometimes, she even does just that (including in 2006's Match of the Year, when she defeated Henin in Berlin just before Roland Garros)... but her head and body usually betray her more often than not. As soon as she conquers one, as she did during that great confidence-building '06 clay run when she won fifteen straight matches (and titles at Amelia Island, Charleston and Berlin), and seems on the verge of a slam breakout, her body gives way. Example: she looked to be a RG favorite in '06, then injured herself in practice, lost in the 1st Round, and then had to skip Wimbledon as a booby prize. At one point last season, Petrova seemed on the brink of throwing up her hands and calling it a day. In the end, after a better-than-it appeared-on-the-surface season that included a Paris indoors title, Hopman and Fed Cup crowns and a pair of RU in Amelia Island and L.A. (poor slam performances cost her her Top 10 ranking), Petrova decided to live to fight another day. But unless she finds a witch doctor to keep her body and head in one piece, will it matter?

As for Kuznetsova, the player some of us once thought might be the most talented of all the Hordettes? Well, it wouldn't exactly be unfair to say that the world #2 actually had a more disappointing season than Sharapova... just because of the "what might have been" feel to her '07 campaign. Remember, Kuznetsova IS a grand slam champion, having won a surprise US Open crown in 2004, and no less than Roger Federer says she's his favorite female player to watch on tour. But she's no Federer when it comes to winning in the clutch, going 5-9 in finals since that grand night in NYC. Last season, she was a shocking 1-5, with the sole win coming when Agnes Szavay had to retire in New Haven while LEADING the match. Kuznetsova led Russia to the Fed Cup championship, but then ended her season with a 0-3 record in the YEC round robin. At this point, "one-slam wonder" might be a premature label to hang on the Contessova... but you'd have a hard time refuting anyone who tried to put her in that particular box.

With no Dorothy in sight to accompany these three to the Emerald City, they'll have to go about fixing their issues without the help of any Wizard.

Just goes to show you that no matter how golden a player may look AT TIMES, the yellow brick road always has a few chips and missing pieces... whether a player has a Russian pedigree or not.

(And thus ends my pre-season "Daily Backspin: Oz Edition" wordplay practice for Melbourne.)



==The NextGen Stars?==
1. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, 16
2. Maria Kirilenko, 20
3. Vera Dushevina, 21
4. Anastasia Pivovarova, 17
5. Elena Vesnina, 21
6. Olga Poutchkova, 20
7. Evgeniya Rodina, 18
8. Vasilisa Bardina, 20
9. Yaroslava Shvedova, 20
10. Alla Kudryavtseva, 20
11. Anna Lapushchenkova, 21
12. Ksenia Pervak, 16
13. Ksenia Lykina, 17
14. Evgeniya Linetskaya, 21 (hopefully)
15. Elena Chernyakova, 17
16. Ekaterina Makarova, 19
17. Alisa Kleybanova, 18
18. Regina Kulikova, 18
19. Natalia Orlova, 18
20. Arina Rodionova, 18
HM- Ekaterina Afinogenova, 20



=BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS=
FIRST TITLES: Vera Dushevina, Anastasia Pivovarova (Jr. slam), Olga Poutchkova, Elena Vesnina
FIRST FINAL: Evgeniya Rodina, Elena Vesnina
FIRST SEMIFINALS: Alla Kudryavtseva, Nadia Petrova (at a slam since '05 RG), Evgeniya Rodina
FIRST QUARTERFINALS: Anna Lapushchenkova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova


1. Maria Sharapova: the thinking here is that the Supernova will rebound with major #3, another slam RU and a medal in Beijing, but the more interesting story surrounding Sharapova might be the sight of her actually playing a Fed Cup match for Team Russia, after having assumed the role of dutiful sideline cheerleader in '07.
=============================
2. Nadia Petrova: it's such a relief that Nadia doesn't intend to leave her tennis dreams behind... and it would be oh-so-sweet around here if she could pull off something truly unexpected in '08. Backspin loves her to death, but the sand has almost (but not quite) run through the hourglass when it comes to Petrova being able to do it.
=============================
3. Anna Chakvetadze: hmmm, I wonder what she'll be answering questions about during the first few weeks of the season? Between the potential and rumored poisonings, match fixing irregularities and home invasion robberies... should all the Russian male and female players have their heads installed on a swivel just to be safe? A little lighter in the pocketbook aside, the Doll is going to have a great deal to live up to on the court in '08. The crystal ball sees another multiple title season, maybe a step back in overall slam results, as well as a first career loss in a tour final (hey, she's Anna Chavekvetadze, not Smashnova).
=============================
4. Russian Fed Cup Team: no doubt the Russians have the deepest squad, but who still wouldn't take some combination of Davenport and Williams sisters against the Hordettes if it were to come to that?
=============================
5. Anastasia Myskina & Elena Bovina: after Myskina played just two matches in '07, and Bovina only fifteen, does the Mind of Myskina have an appropriate synonym for "comeback attempt?"
=============================
6. Svetlana Kuznetsova: the world #2, but does anyone REALLY think that's a valid ranking? The Contessova will have a winning record in finals in '08, but she won't reach nearly as many as she did in '07.
=============================
7. Elena Dementieva: her Moscow title showed there's still some fizz left in Punch-Sober, but was that week more of a reminder of that fact or something of a hometown swan song as a big-time player for the two-time slam RU? Her four-season run of year-end Top 10 rankings came to an end (barely, she was #11) last season. Is the eight-year string of Top 20 finishes next?
=============================
8. The Two Veras:

...after three QF-or-better results in '07, including a RU in Stockholm and QF in Moscow, Dushevina jumped over 50 spots in the rankings last season and might just be the next Russian to "hit" on tour. Zvonareva opened the season in fine form (18-6), but missed nearly five months with a wrist injury that kept her out of Roland Garros and Wimbledon, but is still ranked just outside the Top 20 after returning to action at the US Open and putting together a 13-6 run.
=============================
9. Maria Kirilenko: Kirilenko slipped in an ITF title in Dubai in December to become the fifth player to win both WTA and challenger crowns in '07. It was a nice capper to a season where the 20-year old who seems to have been around "forever" finally showed that all the hype of a few seasons ago might not have been just because of the way she looks, that her name is Maria, or the way she looks (oh, did I say that already? Hmmm...). Her back-to-back finals in Kolkata and Seoul during an 18-6 spark during the summer proved that she can play at a high level for an extended period of time, but that that period must be weighed against the fact that she only won back-to-back matches twice in her first eighteen tournaments last season and finished with four straight opening match losses before Dubai surely does maintain a lifetime to those lingering questions about the arc of her career.
=============================
10. Dinara Safina: oh, she's not as loopy as her brother. But, then again, if she was there'd probably be some psychologists knocking on the door of the family home. So, good for her... I guess.
=============================
11. Olga Poutchkova: after reaching a pair of finals late in '06, last season seemed as if it would play host to her "arrival." Unfortunately, the flight was delayed due to player error. Poutchkova suffered through a 12-match losing streak before she finally pulled out of the nosedive with an 11-6 final stretch (ending in a RU in a $75K event in Pittsburgh) that places her into the "next season could be her breakthrough" category. Hmmm, fool us once, shame on Olga. Fool us twice, shame on us?
=============================
12. Vasilisa Bardina & Yaroslava Shvedova:

...barely noticed last season was the first title (Shvedova in Bangalore) and first final (Bardina in Hobart, where she lost to Chakvetadze in the only all-Hordette final of '07) feats pulled off by these two under-the-radar Russians.
=============================
13. Evgeniya Linetskaya:
...if the tennis gods have any heart, they'll let Linetskaya return to full-time success on tour. In limited action in '07, she put together a 19-1 ITF match run that included three consecutive titles.
=============================
14. Alla Kudryavtseva: just think how '07 history would have changed had she been able to close out Venus in the early going of Wimbledon. Of course, imagining what things would be like if George W. Bush hadn't "won" the 2000 election doesn't really change anything, does it? Hmmm... maybe Alla will win a Nobel Peace Prize somewhere down the line.
=============================
15. Elena Likhovtseva: she might not make as many waves on tour as she used to, but the 32-year old is probably the best, most reliable player in World Team Tennis (where she led the Sacramento Capitals to another title last year, with recent Orange Bowl champion Michelle Larcher de Brito by her side).

=============================
HM- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova:

...will the Superjunior's big tour success be fast-tracked or slow-but-sure? Even while some of her contemporaries (such as Tamira Paszek) have made as easy jump from the juniors to the WTA, Pavlyuchenkova had limited impact on the pro circuit in '07, so it would seem to point to the latter path in her case. So maybe '09 will be the year that headline writers and sports department interns will have to learn to spell her name correctly or else.
=============================


All for now.



NEXT UP: 2008's "Most Intriguing Question" & The Rest of Europe

Read more...

2008 I.O.: North America

Billie Jean. Chrissie. Tracy. And, later, Martina. The WTA tour used to revolve around stars who called the United States home. No longer.

(Well, many of them may still can the U.S. "home"... but they actually REPRESENT other nations on the tennis court.)

Many of the young glamour girls of the tour are surely "Americanized," from Maria Sharapova to Tatiana Golovin and on down the line, and more than ever nationality means less and less when it comes to sports dialogue in the U.S.. But, still, especially when it comes to tennis, having a true American presence is worth its weight in gold as far as media coverage and sponsorship are concerned. Many in the know may look upon a player such as Sharapova as "hardly Russian" despite her family background, but if she and other top players like her WERE native Americans the sport would have a far more secure place in the North American sports landscape than it currently occupies.

World #1 Justine Henin? Only her continued excellence warrants her name EVER being mentioned. It takes a player of Roger Federer's dominating stature to truly break through the all-too-familiar, follow-the-leader coverage headed up by the likes of "the grand slam network (unless we have softball action to show you") ESPN... and he's just as likely to be bumped back in the lineup by the trade of a second-team All-NBA player as he is to be left off the cover of Sports Illustrated in favor of a story on dog fighting or the latest steroids non-story.

Such is the plight of tennis in the U.S., at least until a true American-born heroine rises from the ashes of King, Evert and Austin, and manages to possess the same Tiger Woods-like presence on tour that once seemed the destiny of both Williams sisters until their bodies and off-court interests conspired to turn them into brilliant-but-rarely-seen entertainers who almost always leave everyone disappointingly wanting more even after they notch another grand slam victory following their latest extended absence from the tour.

Meanwhile, play goes on as American women's tennis continues down a murky path toward a future that could become very rocky once the "Big 3" of Venus, Serena and Lindsay ease into the latter stages of and then out of their careers. Apparently, an American tennis star ISN'T a prerequisite for a sport to move forward. Who knew?

Still, things would be a whole lot better for everyone involved is there WAS one.


IS THE NextGen EVER GOING TO ARRIVE?
After some early signs of hope that North American tennis might finally be appearing in Europe's rear view mirror as 2007 began, last season brought a collection of mixed results as no young American or Canadian popped up to grab the reigns as a potential Top 10, or ever Top 20, talent.



18-year old Vania King, a season after becoming the first teenaged American to become a first-time singles champion since 1999, failed to reach a SF in '07. Aleksandra Wozniak, 20, reached the final in Fes (becoming the first Canadian to reach a tour final in nine years), but couldn't win back-to-back main draw matches in any of her other fifteen tour events. After knocking off Maria Sharapova on grass in '06, Georgia Peach Jamea Jackson underwent hip surgery that destroyed her season (she only played thirteen matches, going 0-6 in tour main draws as she fell from #45 to her current #585). Meanwhile, Wozniak's fellow Quebec native, Stephanie Dubois, won fourteen consecutive matches and back-to-back ITF events in '07, but never managed to advance past the 2nd Round of any WTA tournaments.

Both nations are addressing the organizational and geographic deficiencies that may have led to the glaring absence of home-grown tennis prodigies this decade. A year ago, the Evert Academy entered into an agreement with the USTA. Now, the Sanchez-Casal Academy has announced plans to open a Florida branch (managed by Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario, with brother Emilio as CEO) with 37 clay courts, 7 hard courts and an on-site high school. Meanwhile, Tennis Canada recently hired Bob Brett (ex-coach of Boris Becker and Goran Ivanisevic) and Louis Borifa (of the French Tennis Federation) to identify young players and plans to operate new full-time training facilities in both Montreal and Toronto.

So, while the foundation may be being built for future success down the road, what about the near future? Well, while there still are no locked-in future slam contenders on the immediate horizon, there at least seems to be a good crop of young players who might be able to populate the field that has been virtually bereft of young North American talent for years on end (only four players from the continent currently ranked in the Top 200 are 21 or younger, and just one -- Vania King -- is a teenager).

In the same year that John Isner and Donald Young began to stir on the ATP tour, the junior and ITF circuit saw several up-and-coming American and Canadian females show that all hope may not be lost.

Sharon Fichman, a former Top 10-ranked junior from Canada, returned to action after previously wavering on whether she even wanted to play tennis. She reached a pair of ITF singles finals in July. American Madison Brengle played in the Girls finals at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon, while Georgia native Melanie Oudin, 16, reeled off 27 consecutive junior circuit wins (including a victory over Urszula Radwanska) before losing in the prestigious Orange Bowl final this month.

Some of these girls could go on to make names for themselves in time, as the hope is that SOMEONE will emerge and stir up the competitive juices of all those that follow her (the same sort of dynamic that the Russian players point to as a reason for the continued improvement of the Horde as a group since the start of this decade).

It may be a half a decade (at least) before the fruits of the current organizational changes are apparent, but things would certainly be kicked into a higher gear if one of the current newbies rises from the dust bin of what was once the most populous and vigorous tennis pool of talent on earth.

Until then, though, it's all about Venus, Serena and Lindsay... and how much longer they can hold on, as well as the sport hold their interest in the face of so many changes in their lives.

NATION LOOKING UP: United States
...at least for a few more years, Americans will be in contention for grand slam titles as long as the Williamses and Lindsay Davenport manage to stick around. The trio has combined for 117 singles titles (and occupy three of the top four positions on the list of career titles amongst active players), and in two of the past three seasons, the sisters have grabbed half the available slam crowns even while competing in various degrees of "less than dominate" forms.

But it's not just the "Big 3" veterans who are sticking around. The U.S. contingent might have been lacking in youthful depth in recent seasons, but the glass-is-half-full viewpoint would also say that it's the most experienced crop of players on tour, even if the sometimes creaking/fragile bodies of the slam champions at the top of the heap make it a dicey proposition that they'll be able to play anything resembling full seasons.

Vets Jill Craybas, Julie Ditty, and Meilen Tu all reached tour SF in '07, while Meghann Shaughnessy quietly picked up her third title over the last two seasons. Also, Laura Granville somehow found her way into the US Open 4th Round (the only non-Williams entry in the seven Round-of-16-or-better slam results by Americans last season), and Lilia Osterloh notched QF in Cincinnati and Stanford during the North American hard court season.



Additionally, two the top three ranked players In doubles are American. #3 Lisa Raymond (who has her own opinions about the reasons for the lack of young U.S. stars) was #1 for twenty-four weeks in 2007, while South-African-turned-American Liezel Huber assumed the co-#1 position with partner Cara Black as the season came to a close, becoming the 22nd woman in WTA history to find herself atop the computer rankings.

All this, and the names of 31-year old Jennifer Capriati (her career is seemingly over thanks to her shoulder, though one can't quite say FOR CERTAIN that the final chapter has been written... not yet, anyway) and Monica Seles, 34, haven't even been mentioned. Interestingly, Seles recently talked of plans of returning to the tour (notably, in Miami) with a limited schedule in '08 if her injured foot will allow it.

NATION SLIPPING DOWN?: United States
...of course, the fact remains that while five of the ten oldest WTA singles champions last season were American, only two of the youngest 51 were, as well.

Unless a few of the latest "NextGen" players start to pop over the next two or three seasons, it's not an entirely unfathomable proposition that there might not be a single American ranked in the Top 100 at some point if Venus and Serena found themselves in the middle of an extended injury-related absence. "Unthinkable," yes. "Improbable," for sure. But not impossible, either.



PIVOTAL MOMENTS: There aren't really "intriguing questions" concerning the Williams sisters heading into a new season, only conundrums.

If either of them (Serena, especially) are healthy, focused and in form for any given length of time, it's nearly impossible to beat them. Still. Years after their most dominate seasons. If either of them had been able to stay on the court over the course of their career, they might have twice as many slam titles as the fourteen they DO possess.

Unfortunately, it's a rare moment when one of them, let alone both, are able to pull themselves together long enough to live up to their talent. And when they do, it's almost always in a Phoenix-rising-from-the-ashes drama (see Serena in Melbourne in '05 and '07, as well as Venus at Wimbledon during those same seasons) played out on the sport's biggest stages. There're great moments to witness... but fairly well impossible to predict, unless maybe your name is Richard Williams. The rest of us would practically need a working time machine to pull it off.

So, I'm taking a different tact this season... I'm building my own time machine.

I've been kicking around the thought for a couple of years now that Venus' career is going to far outdistance her younger sister's in terms of longevity, and that she'll continue to add to her career slam total for several seasons after Serena's knee problems finally force her out of the game for good. Serena has always been the flashier of the two, but Venus ability to maintain some sense of serenity and balance in her life (she recently graduated art school) could play in her favor in the long run.



At 27, she's still the best grass court player in the world... and it could be that her two Wimbledon titles over the last three seasons are a sign that there still might be a chance for Venus and SW19 history to be joined in holy matrimony for all eternity.

Of course, the details of that particular trip through time will have to wait for Backspin's 2008 edition of "What If," which is still a few weeks away.



==The NextGen Stars?==
1. Madison Brengle, 16 / USA

2. Melanie Oudin, 16 / USA
3. Vania King, 18 / USA
4. Aleksandra Wozniak, 20 / CAN
5. Alexa Glatch, 18 / USA
6. Varvara Lepchenko, 21 / USA (ex-UZB)
7. Stephanie Dubois, 21 / CAN
8. Sharon Fichman, 17 / CAN
9. Julia Cohen, 18 / USA
10. Lauren Albanese, 18 / USA
11. Asia Muhammad, 16 / USA
12. Nicole Gibbs, 14 / USA
13. Coco Vandeweghe, 16 / USA
14. Chelsey Gullickson, 17 / USA
15. Ashley Weingold, 18 / USA
16. Reka Zsilinszka, 18 / USA
17. Heidi El Tabakh, 21 / CAN
18. Mallory Cecil, 17 / USA
19. Allie Will, 16 / USA
20. Kimberly Couts, 18 / USA
HM- Gail Brodsky, 16 / USA



=BACKSPIN PREDICTIONS=
FIRST TITLES: Meilen Tu, USA Fed Cup team (since 2000)
FIRST FINAL: Ashley Harkleroad (since 2004), Bethanie Mattek
FIRST SEMIFINALS: Madison Brengle, Melanie Oudin (Jr. slam)
FIRST QUARTERFINALS: Madison Brengle, Varvara Lepchenko


1. Serena Williams, USA: quite simply, Serena is the most enigmatic athlete of her generation. Male or female. In any sport. She can be unbeatable, or unable to last a single match. Surely, she has vengeance on her mind after going 0-3 against Henin in slams last season, but the condition of her body will forever control her results from now until the end of her career. Even if she only plays an extremely limited schedule, she'll win either a slam or Tier I level title next season... but probably no more than two titles in all by the time '08 comes to a close.
=============================
2. Venus Williams, USA: sure, she can hurt herself getting out of bed to be on "Live with Regis & Kelly," but if she's anywhere close to being able to stand come late June she'll be the favorite at the All-England Club.
=============================
3. Lindsay Davenport USA:

If the sisters have follow-up campaigns in '08 much like the did in '06 after claiming two slams in '05, then new mom Davenport will be the USA MVP this season after returning to action after the US Open and putting together a 13-1, two-title run. She realizes the gift of being able to continue her tennis career, so don't be surprised if she pulls off something big before she says her proper final goodbyes.
=============================
4. USA Fed Cup team: Davenport is scheduled to play in February against Germany, and if at least one of the Williams sisters is healthy enough to join her later in the season, the chances for an improvement on 2007's SF result looks realistic for co-coaches Zina Garrison and Mary Joe Fernandez.
=============================
5. Melanie Oudin, USA:

Is Marietta Melanie the next to be touted as the "future American star?" Her late-year splash pushed her to #4 in the junior rankings, behind recent Girls slam winners U.Radwanska, Pavlyuchenkova and Kucova.
=============================
6. Bethanie Mattek, USA:

Sure, she's always good for some fashion do's and don'ts (sometimes in the same outfit), but she actually won an $50K title on clay last season, too.
=============================
7. Jamea Jackson, USA: she was once a young player on the rise after knocking off Sharapova on grass in '06, but can she regain her form a year after hip surgery?
=============================
8. Madison Brengle, USA: BrengeFly reached two Girls slam finals in '07 and is #10 in the junior rankings. Just the other day, for the second consecutive year, she managed to win the playoff (over Alexa Glatch in the final) for the U.S.'s wild card entry into the Australian Open.
=============================
9. Vania King, USA: she proved she can win in '06, but her game isn't big enough for her to become a big name. Still, her two best tour results in '07 came in her final two events (both QF), so maybe there ARE still more non-singing related headlines in her future.
=============================
10. Sharon Fichman, USA: after reconsidering her tennis career, she's back. But can she catch Wozniak and Dubois to become Canada's top female player?
=============================
11. Meghann Shaughnessy, USA: quietly resilient after all these years.
=============================
12. Ashley Harkleroad, USA: American Splendor made a strong comeback bid last season by claiming three ITF titles.
=============================
13. Aleksandra Wozniak, CAN: Was Fes only a tease?
=============================
14. Coco Vandeweghe, USA: come on, how can you not root for a player with a name like this? Plus, she's 5-feet-11, her mom was an Olympian, and grandfather and uncle professional basketball players. The genes are certainly there.
=============================
15. Asia Muhammad, USA: the Vegas girl hits with Andre Agassi and Steffi Graf. Enough said.
=============================
HM- Melissa Torres Sandoval, MEX & Kristina Brandi, PUR: Yes, there are other countries in North America (or close enough, in the case of Puerto Rico) other than the U.S. and Canada.
=============================

All for now.



NEXT UP: Russia

Read more...