Wednesday, January 16, 2019

AO.3 - A Sasnovich Scenario

Say hello to Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Again. This time, she might not leave.

The opening weeks of the '19 season have seen the 24-year old from Minsk, in between talking about making a Top 10 run and revealing what her meal choices have been leading up to her matches, doing (nearly) all she can to remind everyone that Aryna Sabalenka isn't the only Belarusian looking to make her mark on tour.

Actually, while her younger countrywoman, currently positioned just outside the Top 10, is seen by most as quite possibly the tour's *next* first-time slam champion, it's #31 Sasnovich who arrived in Melbourne with a better slam history. Until her Round of 16 result in New York last summer, the 20-year old Sabalenka was 0-3 in her slam career. Sasnovich reached *her* maiden 4th Round at a major a few months *before* Sabalenka, at Wimbledon, but didn't suffer any of the three 1st Round exits in '18 majors that Sabalenka did. Instead she reached the 3rd Round at last year's AO and the U.S. Open, as well as winning a match in Paris.

While Sabalenka opened 2019 with a get-ready-her-I-come style title run in Shenzhen, Sasnovich upset Elina Svitolina in Brisbane en route to a Week 1 QF, then qualified in Sydney, took down her second Top 10 player in two weeks (Dasha Kasatkina, though, granted, that doesn't feel *quite* as impressive after the Russian's 1st Round crash-out yesterday) and defeated Timea Bacsinszky (Kasatkina's AO conqueror) to reach the SF. Thing is, her results hit a wall right there. She won just two games vs. Donna Vekic in Brisbane, then only three against Petra Kvitova a week later.

Through three days this week, she's set herself up for another shot at a breakout, though. After posting a 1st Round win over Kirsten Flipkens, Sasnovich took down her third Top 20 opponent of the year today, handling #20 Anett Kontaveit 6-3/6-3.



Coming into this slam, Sasnovich was an obvious not-so-dark horse pick to create a little chaos in her section of the draw. With one seed dispatched by her own hand, she won't even have to face another in the next round, as #9 Kiki Bertens was taken out by up-and-down Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova on Wednesday. The winner of their match-up will face either #5 Sloane Stephens or #31 Petra Martic for a berth in the Round of 16.

By then, Sasnovich may have posted her full, week-long eating schedule (or maybe all the stores she's thinking about visiting when she has a spare hour or two) while also cultivating a Li Na-esque sense of mystery and anticipation around any moment when a microphone is sure to be placed before her.



We should be so lucky.



=DAY 3 NOTES=
...meanwhile, as noted, Sasnovich's next opponent won't be #9 Bertens. Fresh off a season during which she built up her hard court credibility, and just days after a semifinal run in Sydney, the Dutch star failed to get past Russia's Pavlyuchenkova, who chose today to once again take a moment to post the sort of effort and result that makes all those times when she does quite the opposite that much more head-shaking.

Her 3-6/6-3/6-3 win today advances Pavlyuchenkova into the AO 3rd Round for the third time in her career.



Through the years, after a banner junior career that saw her win *three* slam singles titles and reach #1 (2006), Pavlyuchenkova has ridden the tour rollercoaster more often than, well, maybe anyone else. After finishing at #16 in 2011, seemingly ready to make her big move, she spent the next five seasons finishing between #26-#36. After surging again in '17 to #15, and finally looking ready to belatedly live up to her early promise, she slipped back to #42 in 2018, a season which produced arguably her most gritty effort en route to winning the Strasbourg title, saving two MP and defeating Dominika Cibulkova in a three-TB final that lasted 3:35 and saw the Hordette fire 73 winners (13 aces) and eke out a win while holding just an overall two-point (136-134) advantage over the Slovak.

Going over Pavlyuchenkova's career stats are akin to take a tennis-themed Rorschach test designed to either determine the respectability of the Russian's career, or your own sanity and ability to cope with seemingly contradictory facts. Or both. The 27-year old has so far put together the strangest, most frustrating, still-very-good-but-also-seemingly-having-left-so-much-on-the-table career of anyone in her generation.

Her WTA title-winning years date all the way back to 2010, and she's won multiple titles in four different seasons. But with twelve career wins (in eighteen finals), she's one title run away from joining Elina Svitolina as the only two players in tour history with thirteen singles crowns but *zero* trips to a slam semifinal. All thirty-nine other players who've won as often have *at least* one.

In between her casual major "drive-bys" over the years (she has thirteen 1st Round exits in forty-four slams, with sixteen more in the 2nd Round), Pavlyuchenkova has actually managed to be one of just thirteen active women with a Career QF Slam, having reached the final eight in each of the four majors. As one would expect from the Russian, though, her four have felt a little like how every few years or so you might find a $20 (okay, even just a $1) bill on the pavement in the middle of a parking lot. You can never expect such a thing, but it makes your heart go pitty-pat for a second when it does, and for a while you scan *every* parking lot you visit thinking you'll get lucky again.

Pavlyuchenkova's slam quarterfinals come in the form of ONE at each major. Just one. And they've all come in bunches, *many* years apart. She had two in a span of three slams back in 2011, raising hopes for a trend... but then didn't have another for five years, then *again* pulled off two in a three slam stretch.

The last in that run came in Melbourne two years ago, causing one to think (again) she *might* have finally turned a corner. Well, her next seven slams went like this: 2r-1r-1r-2r-2r-1r-1r. Still, during that stretch she's gone 4-1 in tour-level finals and recorded four Top 5 wins (including her first over a world #1 in '17). Her win today gives her twenty-nine career Top 10 victories, with at least one every season since 2009.

What to make of Pavlyuchenkova?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Anytime she gets a win like the one today that little voice in the back of your head *still* whispers, "Maybe this time she'll come through... Maybe this time she'll- "

That little voice really needs to shut up.

...meanwhile, the intriguing 3rd Round match-up that'll pit the significant fan bases of the #1 Aussie (Ash Barty) vs. the #1 Greek (Maria Sakkari) in a battle to see which will reign supreme.



In something of a test run, Sakkari handled Aussie qualifier 6-1/6-4 today on Court 3, to the delight of the Greek hordes there to see both her and Stefanos Tsitsipas.





On Laver, Barty took out Wang Yafan 6-2/6-3 to reach the 3rd Round at her third straight AO, and for the fifth time in six majors.




Still not sure the candy striper look is really right for her, but if she keeps on winning, hey, go with it.

...elsewhere, the honor of being the first teen (of the six to reach the 2nd Round) to reach the 3rd Round was taken -- gobbled up, really -- by 17-year old Bannerette Amanda Anisimova. She not only defeated #24 Lesia Tsurenko today, she positively owned her. She fired twenty-four winners in just fourteen games, winning 6-0/6-2 to reach her first slam 3rd Round.



Later in the afternoon, after fellow Aussie newcomers Sharma and Zoe Hives (vs. Caroline Garcia) had lost, Kimberly Birrell further solidified her standing as one of the revelations of the early season. Having already posted '19 wins over Kasatkina and Kristina Mladenovic, the #240-ranked, 20-year old wild card pulled away from #29 Donna Vekic in the 3rd set, winning 6-4/4-6/6-1.



Later tonight, the likes of Petra Kvitova, Maria Sharapova and Angelique Kerber (vs. Beatriz Haddad on Laver) will wrap up the bottom half of the draw's 2nd Round slate under the lights.

...as for a few of the early-round awards...

REVELATION LADIES: rather than go with the usual nation (USA, AUS or RUS) or region (North America), I'm going with the teens. As noted earlier, six -- Andreescu, Anisimova, Potapova, Swiatek, Vondrousova and Yastremska -- reached the 2nd Round. Of the group, two have already won tour titles, and three have reached finals. Only Swiatek has yet to do so... but that distinction won't likely last long.

UPSET QUEENS: The Bannerettes. Danielle Collins knocked out the first seed (#14 Goerges), while Anisimova sent out #24 Tsurenko today after previous defeating Monica Niculescu.

LAST AUSSIE STANDING/LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Barty and Birrell are still in contention as the last home nation player, but Birrell *is* officially the last of the wild cards to breathe air in this draw.

CRASH & BURN: nothing official yet, but it'll take a BIG name going out in shocking fashion in what's left of the 2nd Round to push out #10 Dasha Kasatkina's "off-schedule double-bagel" loss to Timea Bacsinszky after winning the first three games of their 1st Round match.

NATION OF POOR SOULS: there is no real "disaster nation" at this slam, so we'll see how it works out. If nothing pops up, Romania should take it. The Swarmettes went 2-4 in the 1st Round, with Sorana Cirstea being the first player to lose, Niculescu (vs. Anisimova) and Ana Bogdan (vs. Swiatek) losing to teenagers, and Mihaela Buzarnescu squandering a 7-6/5-3 lead vs. Venus. Simona Halep was on thin ice vs. Kaia Kanepi on Night 2, too, but pulled it out. Begu faces Kvitova tonight.

Meanwhile, Germany and France were 2-4 (Kerber plays tonight, Garcia won today) in the 1st Round, while Belgium and Slovakia were both 1-3.

ZOMBIE QUEEN: a number of contenders, but no frontrunner yet. A few:

Venus Williams = trailed Buzarnescu 7-6/5-3
Danielle Collins = Goerges served at 6-2/5-4
Laura Siegemund = trailed Azarenka 7-6/4-2
Simona Halep = was down 7-6 and a break at 2-1 in the 2nd vs. Kanepi
Aleksandra Krunic = Diyas served at 6-3/5-3


...LIKE ON DAY 3: Can you hear that sound approaching? Off in the distance...



...WORDS TO LIVE BY ON DAY 3: Jam tomorrow. Jam yesterday. But never ever jam today.



...EMPATHIZING WITH THE BALL KID ON DAY 3: And it's only Day 3.



...LIKE ON DAY 3: Since CSN hardly ever seems to get mentioned around here...































*AO "UPSET QUEENS" WINNERS*
2004 Hungary
2005 Russia
2006 Spain
2007 Czech Republic
2008 Russia
2009 France
2010 Russia
2011 Russia
2012 Russia
2013 Russia
2014 Australia
2015 Germany
2016 Russia
2017 United States
2018 Ukraine
2019 United States

*AO "REVELATION LADIES" WINNERS*
2006 Italy
2007 Belarus
2008 Poland
2009 Kazakhstan
2010 Germany
2011 Czech Republic
2012 Germany
2013 United States
2014 Romania
2015 France
2016 China
2017 Australia
2018 Estonia
2019 Teens (6 in 2nd Rd.)




TOP QUALIFIER: Astra Sharma/AUS
TOP EARLY ROUND (1r-2r): Nominee: 1st Rd. - Collins d. #14 Goerges
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q3 - Astra Sharma/AUS def. #25 Irina Khromacheva 5-7/7-6(7)/7-6(10) (saved 3 MP, makes slam debut)
TOP EARLY RD. MATCH (1r-2r): xx
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE RD. MATCH (SF-F/Jr./Doub.): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: Rebecca Peterson/SWE (def. Cirstea/ROU)
FIRST SEED OUT: #14 Julia Goerges/GER (1st Rd. - lost to D.Collins/USA)
UPSET QUEENS: United States
REVELATION LADIES: Teens - six teenagers win 1st Round matches - Andreescu/Anisimova/Potapova/Swiatek/Vondrousova/Yastremska
NATION OF POOR SOULS: xx
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: In 2nd Rd.: Andreescu, Haddad Maia, Sharma(L), Swiatek, Vikhlyantseva
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Kimberly Birrell/AUS (in 3rd Rd.)
LAST AUSSIE STANDING: In 3rd Rd.: Barty, Birrell
Ms. OPPORTUNITY: xx
IT (??): Nominee: Birrell
COMEBACK PLAYER: xx
CRASH & BURN: Nominee: #10 Kasatkina (loses 12 con games to lost 1st Rd. vs. Bacsinszky)
ZOMBIE QUEEN: xx
KIMIKO VETERAN CUP: xx
LADY OF THE EVENING: Nominee: Halep
DOUBLES STAR: xx
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: xx





All for Day 3. More tomorrow.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 2:03 AM 

2 Comments:

Blogger colt13 said...

Schedule is so loaded to day with good matches that Williams/Cornet is one of the least interesting ones. Real excited for Kuzmova/Svitolina, Halep/Kenin, Konta/Muguruza, Mertens/Gasparyan and Andreescu/Sevastova.

Williams/Buzarnescu is the best quality match so far.

Like the idea of spotlighting the teens instead of a nation, although that left Zidansek, Kenin and Kuzmova out. How strong is this crop :)

Bertens didn't play badly, though she hit way too many balls straight back to Pavlyuchenkova. Still ahead of where she normally is at this point of the season.

Stat of the Day-51- Years and counting since a woman from The Netherlands has reached the QF at the Australian Open.

In one of the more curious streaks out there, Bertens' loss spotlighted how for The Netherlands, the Happy Slam is the Unhappy Slam.

Bertens on clay is a saying now relegated to history. But for the country, playing better on one surface than the other is relevant to their history. First, let's take a look at their best runs at each slam.

1968- Astrid Suurbeek- AO QF
2016- Kiki Bertens- F SF
1977- Betty Stove- W F
1977- Betty Stove- USO SF

At first glance, nothing jumps out. But then think about history. Suurbeek's run was on grass, as the AO wasn't on hard until 1988. In a similar vein, Stove's 1977 USO run was on clay, so the country is still looking for their first QF on a hardcourt.

Best AO results Open Era
4th rd- Brenda Schultz- 1989, 1995, 1996.

3rd rd- A cast of thousands! *Asterik because Stove's 1967 run predates Open Era, but she only entered 4 times.

Betty Stove- 1967*, 1980
Kiki Bertens- 2018
Maecella Mesker- 1984
Nicole Jagerman- 1988, 1990
Manon Bollegraf- 1989
Petra Kamstra- 1991
Miriam Oremans- 1993, 2000
Kristie Boogert- 1995, 1996, 1997
Michaella Krajicek- 2006

3-14 overall in 3rd round, and one of those is because Schultz beat Boogert.

Wed Jan 16, 10:13:00 AM EST  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

True that even Bertens' hard court advances last year didn't come until later into the season.

Something that isn't talked about enough is how some players (Kasatkina, say... maybe because a game like hers isn't as simple, and can't be held up by one big shot) just don't ever start the season in great form, and makes the season's first slam a very different test compared to the other majors. Even Serena's AO runs have often come with her finding her game (often after almost losing) over the course of the two weeks. But, unlike a Kasatkina, she's always had that one huge weapon to pull her out of a hole.

Unless a player has a shot like that or their overall power can just overwhelm, this time of the year is really a showcase for coaches and trainers and how they prepared a player to go all the way to Australia and be "right" without needing to play her way into the season.

Interesting stuff on the Dutch players. We sometimes forget that the U.S. Open has been played on so many surfaces (making, say, what Connors did on them all at the event maybe the most now-rarely-talked-about feats), and that the AO was on grass for much of its existence (meaning 14 of Laver's 17 career slam finals were on grass, and zero on hard court; and 23 of Court's 29, also with zero on hard).

Can you imagine if Federer, Sampras or Navratilova's careers were played when *three* slams were held on grass?

Wed Jan 16, 12:18:00 PM EST  

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