Tuesday, January 03, 2023

2023 WTA Prediction Blowout

2022 consisted of a series of head-snapping moments that managed to both re-arrange the current hierarchy in the sport as well as seemingly (mostly) put to bed the dominant story of women's tennis over the past 20+ years.

So what does 2023 have hiding behind its back?



As things are already underway in the new season (and in a few WTA cases, "Baby New Year" is already sporting a proverbial five o'clock shadow), here's Backspin's annual January attempt to peer into the future and predict the news before the news takes place.





FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 5 JUMPS (i.e. not necessarily season-ending, for all jumps): Veronika Kudermetova/RUS

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 10 JUMPS: Ekaterina Alexandrova/RUS, Beatriz Haddad Maia/BRA, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 20 JUMPS: Marie Bouzkova/CZE, Jule Niemeier/GER, Jil Teichmann/SUI, Shelby Rogers/USA, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 50 JUMPS: Anna Blinkova/RUS, Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Clara Burel/FRA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Varvara Gracheva/RUS, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Caty McNally/USA, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Alycia Parks/USA, Diane Parry/FRA, Wang Xinyu/CHN, Yuan Yue/CHN

FIRST-TIME IN-SEASON TOP 100 JUMPS: Erika Andreeva/RUS, Elina Avanesyan/RUS, Sara Bejlek/CZE, Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Storm Hunter/AUS, Victoria Jiménez Kasintseva/AND, Eva Lys/GER, Elli Mandlik/USA, Petra Marcinko/CRO, Rebeka Masarova/ESP, Katrina Scott/USA, Diana Shnaider/RUS, Daria Snigur/UKR, Lucrezia Stefanini/ITA, Moyuka Uchijima/JPN



*RANKINGS PREDICTIONS*
-SELECTED SEASON-END FINISHES-
North America (s):
1=Gauff/USA, 2=Pegula/USA, 3=Andreescu/CAN, 4=Anisimova/USA, 5=Fernandez/CAN
North America (d):
1=Dabrowski/CAN, 2=Gauff/USA, 3=McNally/USA, 4=Krawczyk/USA, 5=Pegula/USA
North America (jr.):
1=Ngounoue/USA, 2=Mboko/CAN, 3=Jovic/USA, 4=Quevedo/USA, 5=Cross/CAN
Latin America (s):
1=Haddad Maia/BRA, 2=Osorio/COL, 3=Pigossi/BRA, 4=Podoroska/ARG, 5=Carle/ARG
Latin America (d):
1=Stefani/BRA, 2=Haddad Maia/BRA, 3=Guarachi/CHI
---
20 and Under:
1=Gauff, 2=Noskova, 3=L.Fruhvirtova, 4=Shnaider, 5=Marcinko
CHN:
1=Zheng Qinwen, 2=Zhang Shuai, 3=Yuan Yue, 4=Wang Xiyu, 5=Wang Xinyu
CZE:
1=Krejcikova, 2=Kvitova, 3=Bouzkova, 4=Ka.Pliskova, 5=Noskova, 6=Vondrousova, 7=L.Fruhvirtova, 8=Siniakova, 9=B.Fruhvirtova, 10=Muchova
CZE (Jr.):
1=Nikola Bartunkova, 2=Lucie Havlickova, 3=Tereza Valentova
FRA:
1=Garcia, 2=Parry, 3=Cornet, 4=Burel, 5=Jacquemot
GBR:
1=Dart, 2=Raducanu, 3=Boulter, 4=Watson, 5=Miyazaki
GER:
1=Niemeier, 2=Friedsam, 3=Lys, 4=Maria
HUN:
1=P.Udvardy, 2=Bondar, 3=Galfi, 4=Szabanin
ITA:
1=Cocciaretto, 2=Bronzetti, 3=Paolini, 4=Giorgi, 5=Errani
POL:
1=Swiatek, 2=Linette, 3=Frech, 4=Chwalinska, 5=Falkowska
RUS:
1=Kudermetova, 2=Samsonova, 3=Alexandrova, 4=Kasatkina, 5=Pavlyuchenkova, 6=Potapova, 7=Blinkova, 8=Kalinskaya, 9=Shnaider, 10=Rakhimova
WC:
1=de Groot, 2=Kamiji, 3=Griffioen, 4=Van Koot, 5=Montjane




=BIGGEST 2023 RANKING FALLS (ranks on January 1, 2023)=
[2022 Top 25]
#8 Dasha Kasatkina/RUS, #11 Madison Keys/USA, #14 Danielle Collins/USA
[2022 #26-50]
#27 Martina Trevisan/ITA, #32 Kaia Kanepi/EST, #37 Sloane Stephens/USA

=BIGGEST 2023 RANKING RISES (ranks on January 1, 2023)=
[2022 #26-50]
#28 Zheng Qinwen/CHN, #40 Leylah Fernandez/CAN, #43 Anastasia Potapova/RUS, #46 Bianca Andreescu/CAN, #47 Shelby Rogers/USA
[2022 #51-75]
#55 Garbine Muguruza/ESP, #65 Jule Niemeier/GER, #69 Marta Kostyuk/UKR, #73 Anna Blinkova/RUS, #75 Alycia Parks/USA
[2022 #76-100]
#79 Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, #92 Marketa Vondrousova/CZE, #93 Caty McNally/USA, #96 Clara Tauson/DEN, #97 Yuan Yue/CHN
[2022 #101-150]
#102 Linda Noskova/CZE, #109 Diana Shnaider/RUS, #111 Diane Parry/FRA, #127 Eva Lys/GER, #132 Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE
[2021 #151-200]
#151 Karolina Muchova/CZE, #156 Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva/AND, #181 Sara Bejlek/CZE, #185 Polina Kudermetova/RUS, #189 Oksana Selekhmeteva/RUS, #191 Petra Marcinko/CRO


1.Miriam Kolodziejova, CZE
...a junior achiever who won a pair of GD crowns alongside Marketa Vondrousova in 2015, the now 25-year old Czech reteamed with her countrywoman late in '22 and picked up $100K and $80K crowns and reached a 125 final, as well as winning her maiden tour WD title with another Czech (Anastasia Detiuc) a few weeks earlier. Now in the Top 100 in doubles, Kolodziejova (whether she partners regularly with Vondrousova, ala past junior star duo Krejcikova/Siniakova, or not -- though they look to be in the early '23 draws), she should have no trouble finding a slew of other Czechs to play with as she (maybe) can take her turn in following the not-long-ago (i.e. pre singles build-up) path of a doubles-focused -- and super successful -- Barbora Krejcikova.

2.Yuan Yue, CHN
...everyone has come to know Zheng Qinwen and can see the Wangs coming around the corner, but Yuan showed herself to be a Chinese player to keep an eye on in '22, reaching the U.S. Open 3rd Round and playing in five $60K+ challenger finals (winning two) as she climbed into the Top 100.

3.Eva Lys, GER
...the soon-to-turn-21 (Jan.12) year old German began to make a move late in '22, winning her biggest title ($60K) and reaching her biggest final ($100K). Kyiv-born (her father played Davis Cup for UKR), she made her tour debut last year in Stuttgart (def. Golubic) and in '23 will be looking to make her slam MD debut while cracking the Top 100.

4.Polina Kudermetova, RUS
...you know Veronika, but what about her 19-year old sister? A former Top 5 junior, Polina claimed four ITF singles crowns in '22 while rising into the Top 200. She and Veronika are expected to play WD on the tour level at some point in '23.

5.Oksana Selekhmeteva, RUS
...a two-time GD slam winner (and two-time GS slam semifinalist), the 19-year old cracked the singles Top 200 in '22, won a $60K (def. Baindl in the final) and made her slam MD debut in Paris.

HM-Erika Andreeva/RUS, Selena Janicijevic/FRA, Moyuka Uchijima/JPN, Wei Sijia/CHN and Tara Wurth/CRO
...18-year old Andreeva reached the '21 RG girls' final and finished '22 at #118 in the WTA rankings after reaching a $100K final and qualifying at the U.S. Open to make her slam MD debut. Janicijevic went 5-2 in ITF finals. Uchijima won a pair of $60K crowns and twice just missed out on slam MD (falling in the Q3 in Paris and NYC). 19-year old Wei won six challenger crowns (tied for second behing B.Fruhvirtova for the circuit lead). Wurth reached four ITF finals (winning two, one a $60K).




==PREVIOUS "PWNYK" LISTS==
-2017-
1.Jana Fett, CRO
2.Dalma Galfi, HUN
-2018-
Viktoria Kuzmova, SVK
-2019-
1.Kaja Juvan, SLO
2.Ivana Jorovic, SRB
3.Katie Boulter, GBR
4.Fiona Ferro, FRA
5.Viktoriia Dema, UKR
-2020-
1.Varvara Gracheva, RUS
2.Elisabetta Cocciaretto, ITA
3.Liudmila Samsonova, RUS
4.Hailey Baptiste, USA
5.Usue Arconada, USA
-2021-
1.Kamilla Rakhimova, RUS
2.Katrina Scott, USA
3.Carole Monnet, FRA
4.Robin Montgomery, USA
5.Matilda Mutavdzic, GBR
-2022-
1.Olivia Gadecki, AUS
2.Anastasia Gasanova, RUS
3.Zheng Qinwen, CHN
4.Daniela Vismane, LAT
5.Alycia Parks, USA









via GIPHY



NEWCOMERS OF THE YEAR: Erika Andreeva/RUS, Maja Chwalinska/POL, Lizzy de Greef/NED (WC), Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Eva Lys/GER, Petra Marcinko/CRO, Diana Shnaider/RUS, Oksana Selekhmeteva/RUS, Daria Snigur/UKR, Natalia Szabanin/HUN

MOST IMPROVED PLAYERS: Anna Blinkova/RUS, Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Clara Burel/FRA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Shiori Funamizu/JPN (WC), Miriam Kolodziejova/CZE (d), Rebeka Masarova/ESP, Caty McNally/USA, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Alycia Parks/USA, Diane Parry/FRA, Shelby Rogers/USA, Yuan Yue/CHN

SURPRISE PLAYERS: Nuria Brancaccio/ITA, Sophie Chang/USA, Séléna Janicijevic/FRA, Suzan Lamens/NED, Lily Miyazaki/GBR, Jessika Ponchet/FRA, Peyton Stearns/USA, Lucrezia Stefanini/ITA, Moyuka Uchijima/JPN, Tara Wurth/CRO

COMEBACKS: Aoyama/Shibahara (JPN/JPN), Jaqueline Cristian/ROU, Fiona Ferro/FRA, Hsieh Su-wei/TPE (d), Ann Li/USA, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova/RUS, Astra Sharma/AUS, Luisa Stefani/BRA (d), Clara Tauson/DEN, Marketa Vondrousova/CZE

ITF ACHIEVERS: Mirra Andreeva/RUS, Elina Avanesyan/RUS, Sara Bejlek/CZE, Sofia Costoulas/BEL, Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva/AND, Sinja Kraus/POL, Polina Kudermetova/RUS, Ipek Oz/TUR, Matilde Paoletti/ITA, Priska Madelyn Nugroho/INA, Lola Radivojevic/SRB, Tara Wurth/CRO, Anastasia Zakharova/RUS

JUNIORS TO WATCH: Cadence Brace/CAN, Nikola Daubnerová/SVK, Iva Jovic/USA, Olivia Lincer/POL, Victoria Mboko/CAN, Clervie Ngounoue/USA, Kaitlin Quevedo/USA, Mia Ristic/CRO, Sara Saito/JPN, Laura Samsonova/CZE, Ella Seidel/GER, Luca Udvardy/HUN, Tereza Valentova/CZE, Nina Vargova/SVK

COACH OF THE YEAR: Anton Dubrov (Sabalenka), Alessandro Dumitrache (L.Samsonova), Christopher Kas (Niemeier), Vladimír Pláteník/Sergei Demekhine (V.Kudermetova), Pere Riba (Zheng Qinwen), Piotr Sierzputowski (Rogers)

NCAA CHAMPION WATCH: Fiona Crawley (North Carolina), Connie Ma (Stanford), Allura Zamarripa (Texas)





FIRST-TIME SLAM WINNERS: Ons Jabeur/TUN, Aryna Sabalenka/BLR

FIRST-TIME SLAM FINALISTS: Aryna Sabalenka/BLR, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

FIRST-TIME SLAM SEMIFINALISTS: Veronika Kudermetova/RUS, Jule Niemeier/GER, Jessie Pegula/USA, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

FIRST-TIME SLAM QUARTERFINALISTS: Ekaterina Alexandrova/RUS, Linda Noskova/CZE, Liudmila Samsonova/RUS, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

FIRST-TIME SLAM ROUND OF 16's: Ekaterina Alexandrova/RUS, Clara Burel/FRA, Harriet Dart/GBR, Linda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Linda Noskova/CZE, Alycia Parks/USA, Diane Parry/FRA, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Yuan Yue/CHN

NOTABLE FIRST-TIME SLAM 1st ROUND WINNERS: Sara Bejlek/CZE, Anna Bondar/HUN, Brenda Fruhvirtova/CZE, Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva/AND, Ashlyn Krueger/USA, Eva Lys/GER, Petra Marcinko/CRO, Robin Montgomery/USA, Linda Noskova/CZE, Alycia Parks/USA, Nastasja Schunk/GER, Oksana Selekhmeteva/RUS, Diana Shnaider/RUS, Peyton Stearns/USA

FIRST-TIME WTA CHAMPIONS: Lucia Bronzetti/ITA, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Kaja Juvan/SLO, Rebecca Marino/CAN, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Alycia Parks/USA, Shelby Rogers/USA, Ajla Tomljanovic/AUS, Zheng Qinwen/CHN

FIRST-TIME WTA FINALISTS: Cristina Bucsa/ESP, Elisabetta Cocciaretto/ITA, Storm Hunter/AUS, Anna Kalinskaya/RUS, Marta Kostyuk/UKR, Jule Niemeier/GER, Linda Noskova/CZE, Alycia Parks/USA, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Yuan Yue/CHN

HISTORIC FIRST-TIME WTA SEMIFINALISTS: Alex Eala/PHI (first Filipina), Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva/AND (first Andorran)

HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER TITLE: Storm Hunter/AUS, Wang Xiyu/CHN, Yuan Yue/CHN

HIGHEST RANKED WITHOUT A CAREER FINAL: Caty McNally/USA, Panna Udvardy/HUN, Wang Xinyu/CHN




via GIPHY






2022 TOP 10 2023 thumbnail sketch?...
#1 Swiatek ...briefly loses the #1 ranking during the season, but ends atop the rankings again. Wins major #4 and reaches two slam finals, wins first WTAF crown and three 1000 titles (but doesn't repeat at either Indian Wells or Miami). Leads Poland to (at least) semifinals in BJK Cup. Reaches first QF at Wimbledon, but fails to do the same in U.S. Open title defense.
#2 Jabeur ...is first (you-know-the-drill) to win a slam singles crown *and* (briefly) to reach the women's singles #1 ranking. Reaches two slam finals, including first in Paris. Wins titles on three different surfaces, and reaches QF at all four majors. After pulling W/RU results in Madrid/Rome in '22, sweeps both titles this time around (first since Serena in '13). Reaches four 1000 finals.
#3 Pegula ...wins two singles titles, a 250 and a 500 level event. Reaches first slam semifinal, but loses match after having held MP. Records her first career #1 win (but not with a victory over Iga) en route to her lone 1000 final (she had two 1000 finals in '22).
#4 Garcia ...wins titles on two different surfaces, and reaches finals on three. Wins back-to-back titles during season, putting together a 16+ match streak. Has most total slam MD wins in a season in her career (11 in '17, 9 in '22), reaching three QF, but doesn't play in her second career slam semifinal after maiden run in U.S. Open.
#5 Sabalenka ...reaches two slam finals, and blasts her way to her maiden slam crown (but only after losing a set and double-break lead, winning the 2nd in a 20+ point TB on her 5+ MP of the day). Holds the singles #1 for one week, becoming just the eighth woman (the Sisters, both Martinas, ASV, Davenport and Clijsters) to top both the s/d lists at some point during a career. Wins a 1000 final (in two finals) and is once again RU at the WTA Finals with the year-end #1 ranking at stake in the match.
#6 Sakkari ...finally wins her second career title (at a 250), but falls from four finals to two (one a 1000, tying her career best) over the course of the season, falling out of the Top 10 for the first time since September '21. Reaches one slam QF, her first since her two-SF '21 season (RG/US).
#7 Gauff ...ends the year as the U.S. singles #1 for the first time, as well as winning multiple singles titles in a season for the first time (one at least a 500 event, a career best). Reaches her maiden career 1000 final, losing it while winning the WD that same week. Returns to the Roland Garros semis a year after being runner-up.
#8 Kasatkina ...now comes the hard part. The Russian's fall in the rankings came after her first Top 10 season in 2018, and she has a hard time maintaining her position in '23 after her #8 finish last year. Still, she wins a singles title for the third year in a row before settling in between #18-25 at the end of the season.
#9 V.Kudermetova ...finally wins the big matches she has often lost, improving on her career 1-4 WTA singles final record by winning three-plus titles (one 1000, her biggest F/W, and another at an event in which she plays feel-good WD w/ sister Polina) and reaching her first slam semifinal. She reaches the singles Top 5 and tops the doubles rankings for the first time (she finished '22 at WD #2). Battles Samsonova (who defeats Kudermetova in either a slam QF or SF) for the Hordette #1 ranking in the closing months, and finally pulls ahead at the WTAF.
#10 Halep ...while under provisional suspension, misses the entire Australian swing for the first time in her career, but manages to get back on the court at some point during the season (possibly by early spring, and at least by the North American hard court swing).


2023 SLAM SINGLES FINALISTS: Ons Jabeur (2), Aryna Sabalenka (2), Liudmila Samsonova, Iga Swiatek (2), Zheng Qinwen
===============================================
2023 SLAM DOUBLES TITLES: Krejcikova/Siniakova (2), Mladenovic/someone, Kolodziejova/Vondrousova
===============================================
2023 SLAM MIXED DOUBLES TITLES: Gaby Dabrowski, Storm Hunter, Desirae Krawczyk, Nicole Melichar-Martinez
===============================================
2023 WHEELCHAIR SLAM WINNERS: Diede de Groot (4 singles), de Groot/Van Koot (4 doubles)
===============================================

2023 IN-SEASON SINGLES #1's: Iga Swiatek (year-end), Ons Jabeur, Aryna Sabalenka
===============================================
2023 IN-SEASON DOUBLES #1's: Katerina Siniakova (year-end), Veronika Kudermetova
===============================================
2023 YEAR-END JUNIOR #1: Clervie Ngounoue
===============================================
2023 ROUND OF 16 AT ALL FOUR MAJORS: Ons Jabeur, Veronika Kudermetova; [Swiatek-3]
===============================================
2023 QF AT ALL FOUR MAJORS: Ons Jabeur; [Swiatek-3]
===============================================
2023 SINGLES TITLE LEADER: Iga Swiatek
2023 SINGLES FINAL LEADERS: Iga Swiatek, Ons Jabeur, Aryna Sabalenka (tie)
2023 SINGLES MATCH WIN LEADER: Ons Jabeur
2023 S+D MATCH WIN LEADER: Veronika Kudermetova
===============================================

2023 BJK CUP CHAMPIONS: United States (RU: CZE or POL)
===============================================




kosova-font


*MISCELLANEOUS PREDICTIONS*

Emma Raducanu: reaches her first non-slam WTA singles final, her first on any level since winning the 2021 U.S. Open, but does not win career title #2 in 2023; finishes in the Top 50 (enters season at #78)

Barbora Krejcikova: returns to a slam singles SF; she also wins the WD title at that same event

Elena Rybakina: fails to defend her Wimbledon title, losing in the first week of play; but since she has no points to defend, her ranking goes *up* at the end of the fortnight

===============================================
Three Russians reach the Final 8 of a single major, with two facing off for a semifinal berth
===============================================
Giuliana Olmos is first Mexican woman to reach a slam WD final in the Open Era (last: 1961 U.S. Open). Olmos reached the U.S. Open MX final in 2021.
===============================================
Mayar Sherif is the first Egyptian woman to reach the singles 3rd Round in a major
===============================================
Brenda Fruhvirtova, 15 until April 2, is the youngest tour singles semifinalist of the season
===============================================
Venus Williams notches her first win over a Top 20 player since 2019 (Cincinnati vs. Bertens)
===============================================
A WTA player becomes the first woman to record a 32-ace match (record: 31 Kr.Pliskova, 2016); a player also has a record 32-DF match (record: 31 Kournikova, 1999)
===============================================
Marketa Vondrousova's comeback includes her first tour singles finals since 2019, first title since 2017 and her first career tour-level WD crowns; while fellow Czech Karolina Muchova reaches her first singles final since 2019, but misses at least one slam due to injury
===============================================

=OVER/UNDER=

1 = Diede de Groot singles losses (2021: 41-1, 2022: 38-0)...PUSH
1 = Different CAN Women w/ WTA singles titles (2019-22: 1-0-1-1)...OVER
1 = Different CHN Women w/ WTA singles titles (2020-22: 0-0-1)...OVER
1 = Garbine Muguruza singles finals (2018-22: 2-1-1-5-0)...PUSH
1 = Krejcikova/Siniakova slam WD titles as a duo (2018-22: 2-0-0-1-3)...OVER
1 = Anett Konteveit indoor singles titles (2021: 3, 2022: 1)...UNDER
2 = Iga Swiatek losses in WS finals (2019-22: 1-0-0-1)...PUSH
2 = Andreescu slam Round of 16+ results (2019-22: 1-0-1-0)...PUSH
2 = Kristina Mladenovic slam WD/MX titles (2018-22: 1-1-1-0-2)...UNDER
2 = Ons Jabeur finals on different surfaces (2021-22: 3,4)...OVER
2 = Belinda Bencic 1000+ SF+ (2019: 5/14, 2020: 0/3, 2021: 1/10, 2022: 1/12)...OVER
2 = Caroline Garcia WS titles on different surfaces (2016-22: 2-1-1-1-0-0-3)...PUSH
3 = Different CZE women w/ WTA singles titles (2017-22: 5-2-3-1-2-5)...OVER
3 = Maria Sakkari WTA singles finals (2018-22: 1-1-0-1-4)...UNDER
3 = Alona Ostapenko wins over former slam champions (2020-22: 1-2-5)...UNDER
3 = Elise Mertens 3rd Round+ slam results (2017-22: 1-4-4-3-4-3)...UNDER
3 = Coco Gauff combined WS/WD titles (2019-22: 3,0,2,3)...OVER
4 = Kristina Mladenovic WTA WD titles (2018-22: 3-3-2-0-4)...OVER
4 = Teen singles champions (2019-22: 2-7-1-8-2)...OVER
4 = Different Russian women WS champions (2018-22: 4-0-1-3-5)...OVER
4 = Different U.S. women WS champions (2018-21: 1-6-3-4-5)...UNDER
5 = Jessie Pegula QF+ results in 1000/slam/WTAF (2021: 5/11, 2022: 8/12)...UNDER
6 = Iga Swiatek singles (WTA+GS) titles (2020-22: 1-2-8)...UNDER
8 = Veronika Kudermetova combined WS/WD finals (2021: 5, 2022: 6)...OVER
10 = Karolina Muchova WTA-level events completed (does not include ret.; 2021: 8+3, 2022: 6+3)...UNDER
10* = Naomi Osaka events completed (*does not include pre-MD w/d or in-tour. ret./withdrawal...2021-22: 7+2, 8+3)...UNDER
15 = Simona Halep matches completed (do not include ret.)...UNDER
18 = Aryna Sabalenka high DF in a match...UNDER
20 = Aryna Sabalenka high ace in a match...OVER

===============================================
Leylah Fernandez and Bianca Andreescu will meet for the first time, playing multiple times in '23 in top level (1000 & slam) events, with all but one match-up going three sets (the one that doesn't will end in a retirement). [Yes, this is the *exact* same prediction I had for '22, when it did *not* happen.]
===============================================
First 1000-level Finals: Veronika Kudermetova (W), Liudmila Samsonova, Zheng Qinwen (W)
===============================================
A reunited Kristina Mladenovic & Timea Babos claim at least three tour-level or better doubles titles
===============================================

Wheelchair tennis:

* - Diede de Groot does *not* complete a second straight undefeated season in singles, losing once (but not to Yui Kamiji)

* - de Groot is the first to sweep all eight slam singles/doubles titles, saving MP in at least one WD final to do it

* - Dutch teen Lizzy de Greef wins her first Series 1 wheelchair tour singles crown, and makes her slam MD debut

* - Esther Vergeer is finally inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame (or we storm the gates at Newport... just kidding)

Note: this would be announced in the days before the '23 AO, and if it doesn't happen now the next year in which a wheelchair athlete can be included on the HoF ballot (barring the sort of amendment to the rules, ala the one that allowed for the Original 9's induction) won't be until *2027.*

===============================================

Kaja Juvan: once again knocks off a seed (at *least* one) in a major, only to fall one round later. On the other hand, she *finally* wins her maiden title and cracks the Top 50.

Clara Tauson: wins her third WTA title, her first since 2021. As in her previous three tour level finals, it comes on indoor hard court. She also upsets a seed for the third time in a major ('20 RG Brady, '22 AO Kontaveit).

Czech Crushers: Linda Noskova knocks off multiple Top 10 seeds in majors, while another teen Czech Crusher defeats a Top 20 slam seed on the same day that Noskova records one of *her* wins. Two Czech teens also face off in a tour (or 125) singles final; while two *other* Czech teens play in a junior slam singles final (the first all-CZE jr. slam final). Four different Czech Crushers (i.e. the teen set) win WTA/WTA 125 singles titles.

===============================================
At least three different Italian women win WTA singles titles, the most since at least 2016 (3; 2015: 4)
===============================================
A player records wins over the world #1 and #2 in a single major for the first time since 2009 (RG-Kuznetsova)
===============================================
A player ranked outside the Top 300 wins a tour singles title, the lowest-ranked champion since 2001 and the second lowest-ranked (not counting unranked players) winner in tour history
===============================================
(For 2023-24, and maybe '25?) After recent WTA tour-level events being played in Estonia and Tunisia for the first time, full-fledged (i.e. not a WTA 125 challenger) tour event are announced for Egypt and Andorra
===============================================


Of course, as always, I could also be waaaaaay off.








**RECENT BACKSPIN WEEK 1 PLAYERS-OF-THE-WEEK**
2015 Maria Sharapova/RUS, Simona Halep/ROU (co-PoW)
2016 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2017 Karolina Pliskova, CZE
2018 Simona Halep, ROU
2019 Julia Goerges, GER
2020 Serena Williams, USA
2021 Aryna Sabalenka, BLR
2022 Ash Barty, AUS


**CAREER WEEK 1 TITLES - active**
3...Simona Halep, ROU
3...Karolina Pliskova, CZE
2...Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2...Aryna Sabalenka, BLR
2...Venus Williams, USA
1...Ekaterina Alexandrova, RUS
1...Amanda Anisimova, USA
1...Lauren Davis, USA
1...Kaia Kanepi, EST
1...Petra Kvitova, CZE
1...Katerina Siniakova, CZE
1...Sloane Stephens, USA
1...Elina Svitolina, UKR
1...Yanina Wickmayer, BEL
--
ALSO: S.Williams (3), Barty (1)


**MOST RECENT FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN JANUARY**
=2014 Week 2=
Tsvetana Pironkova (SYDNEY), Garbine Muguruza (HOBART)
=2017 Week 1=
Katerina Siniakova (SHENZHEN), Lauren Davis (AUCKLAND)
=2017 Week 2=
Elise Mertens (HOBART)
=2019 Week 2=
Sonia Kenin (HOBART)
=2020 Week 1=
Ekaterina Alexandrova (SHENZHEN)


**MOST RECENT FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN WEEK 1**
2006 Marion Bartoli (Auckland) - first final
2009 Victoria Azarenka (Brisbane) - had been 0-4 in finals
2017 Katerina Siniakova (Shenzhen) - had been 0-2 in finals
2017 Lauren Davis (Auckland) - had been 0-2 in finals
2020 Ekaterina Alexandrova (Shenzhen) - second career final


**MOST RECENT w/ MULTIPLE FIRST-TIME CHAMPS IN WEEK 1**
=2000=
Silvija Talaja (Gold Coast)
Anne Kremer (Auckland)
=2017=
Katerina Siniakova (Shenzhen)
Lauren Davis (Auckland)










All for now.

4 Comments:

Blogger colt13 said...

Did I miss Solana Sierra?

Chwalinska will miss AO due to injury.

Love the Olmos stat.

AO had Brady and Collins hiding in plain sight. Most likely a first time finalist comes from 10-30.

Should I do a rebuttal?
=OVER/UNDER=
1 = Diede de Groot singles losses (2021: 41-1, 2022: 38-0)...PUSH

Over- Only because that could be 2

1 = Different CAN Women w/ WTA singles titles (2019-22: 1-0-1-1)...OVER

Push-See 3 potentially in finals

1 = Different CHN Women w/ WTA singles titles (2020-22: 0-0-1)...OVER

Over- Zhang seems obvious, Zhang, Zhu, Wang could steal one

1 = Garbine Muguruza singles finals (2018-22: 2-1-1-5-0)...PUSH

Push- Guadalajara 250 here we come

1 = Krejcikova/Siniakova slam WD titles as a duo (2018-22: 2-0-0-1-3)...OVER

Over- So consistent

1 = Anett Kontaveit indoor singles titles (2021: 3, 2022: 1)...UNDER

Under- Not even Tallinn

2 = Iga Swiatek losses in WS finals (2019-22: 1-0-0-1)...PUSH

Push- It is hard to project her to lose, but if I do so, that still means 6 finals

2 = Andreescu slam Round of 16+ results (2019-22: 1-0-1-0)...PUSH

Push- This seems safe, as she will probably have a nagging injury for one

2 = Kristina Mladenovic slam WD/MX titles (2018-22: 1-1-1-0-2)...UNDER

Under- Still expecting a good year from her in doubles

2 = Ons Jabeur finals on different surfaces (2021-22: 3,4)...OVER

Over- Hard is the toughest for her to get

2 = Belinda Bencic 1000+ SF+ (2019: 5/14, 2020: 0/3, 2021: 1/10, 2022: 1/12)...OVER

Over- She seems lined up for a career year

2 = Caroline Garcia WS titles on different surfaces (2016-22: 2-1-1-1-0-0-3)...PUSH

Under- Though I can see finals on all 3

3 = Different CZE women w/ WTA singles titles (2017-22: 5-2-3-1-2-5)...OVER

Over- Double that. I do think it is more likely for Vondrousova and Muchova to win one than Pliskova

3 = Maria Sakkari WTA singles finals (2018-22: 1-1-0-1-4)...UNDER

Push- Bridesmaid finally gets #2

3 = Alona Ostapenko wins over former slam champions (2020-22: 1-2-5)...UNDER

Over- We have a lot of underperforming slam champs

3 = Elise Mertens 3rd Round+ slam results (2017-22: 1-4-4-3-4-3)...UNDER

Under- Mainly because she may be unseeded for multiple slams

3 = Coco Gauff combined WS/WD titles (2019-22: 3,0,2,3)...OVER

Over- More because of doubles

4 = Kristina Mladenovic WTA WD titles (2018-22: 3-3-2-0-4)...OVER

Push- Only because her low singles ranking might for her to play 125K events

4 = Teen singles champions (2019-22: 2-7-1-8-2)...OVER

Push- This is the one I blew last year.

4 = Different Russian women WS champions (2018-22: 4-0-1-3-5)...OVER

Over- Would be shocked if it is under. Would say double.

4 = Different U.S. women WS champions (2018-21: 1-6-3-4-5)...UNDER

Over- Anisimova, Parks, Gauff seem like 3, Pegula, Keys, Stephens would make 6.

5 = Jessie Pegula QF+ results in 1000/slam/WTAF (2021: 5/11, 2022: 8/12)...UNDER

Push- Probably depends on if she can avoid Swiatek

6 = Iga Swiatek singles (WTA+GS) titles (2020-22: 1-2-8)...UNDER

Under- I say 4, which is still a good year

8 = Veronika Kudermetova combined WS/WD finals (2021: 5, 2022: 6)...OVER

Over- Ascending star will walk away with some big titles

10 = Karolina Muchova WTA-level events completed (does not include ret.; 2021: 8+3, 2022: 6+3)...UNDER

Over- Like Stephen Strasburg, expect her to be healthy once in every 3 year span. This is the one

10* = Naomi Osaka events completed (*does not include pre-MD w/d or in-tour. ret./withdrawal...2021-22: 7+2, 8+3)...UNDER

Under- 4 slams, Miami, IW, Rome, Madrid, Cinci

15 = Simona Halep matches completed (do not include ret.)...UNDER

Under- I could see 7 on grass

18 = Aryna Sabalenka high DF in a match...UNDER

Over- Because it is a long season, not because she will do it every week

20 = Aryna Sabalenka high ace in a match...OVER

Under- Thinking 17 might be her high

As usual, 3 additional ones:

20 = WTA level wins for Yulia Putintseva...Under

3 = Top 20 wins in slams for Kaia Kanepi...Push

20 = WTA level wins for Madison Brengle...Over

Wed Jan 04, 09:09:00 AM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

As I look back on Belinda Cordwell, hopefully I am not doing something similar in 20 years for Jennifer Brady. Went from first title, to USO SF, to AO F, to last match in a 53 week span.

Another post? United Cup SF are now set.

Enjoying this event more than I thought I would.

They get a day off for travel as they head to Sydney.

POL/USA
MIP- Linette

Remember I mentioned travel? USA is the team that was already in Sydney and benefits from unused depth in Krawczyk, Parks, Kudla and Reese. Tie seems like it could be decided before doubles, in which case we may actually see 2 of those. Poland's one chance to flip seems to be Linette/Keys.

Pick- USA

GRE/ITA
MIP- Berrettini

Italy loses, but squeaks in over Croatia. Oddly enough, because they aren't as top heavy as Greece, they should be favored in 2 singles matches. The one that seems possible to flip is Berrettini's. If he does, the #1 seed in Greece is out.

Pick- Italy

Wed Jan 04, 11:38:00 AM EST  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

Do you mean that I didn't do any picks w/ Sierra? If so, I guess I didn't have her on my initial nominations a few weeks ago (I probably *should* have), and then didn't think to add her now. I probably would have put her on the ITF list, though.

Speaking of Brady, you start to wonder if she'll *ever* get back.

Muguruza: unfortunately, that was sort of my line of thinking, too. :/

Mladenovic: with the Czechs, it's *hard* to wins slam WD titles (if Krejcikova didn't get Covid, Kiki/Caro might not have won RG). She rarely plays MX (but got a slam in '22), but if she played *all* four majors I might bump that up one.

Ostapenko: her problem is that she has to reach the matches to get to them, though (see Wk.1 win over Pliskova, then three games vs. Begu in 2r).

Teen: it would be *stunning* if just two won this year.

Halep: I worry she gets back, then is quickly injured after getting the late start. :/

I'd agree with all those three additional O/U, but to be different would go Under for Brengle, I guess.

Thu Jan 05, 07:00:00 PM EST  
Blogger colt13 said...

Auckland has a teen and a qualifier in the final.

Adelaide 1 has a teen and a qualifier in the final.

The difference is that in Adelaide, they are one and the same in Linda Noskova.

That brings up my pet peeve. I hate to give Wimbledon credit for anything, but the fact that they hold one WC for someone having a good grass season always seems to pay off. With all of Australia's WC off the books, and that includes Birrell getting Venus' WC, Noskova(4 out) might be in AO Q with a rank around 45.

Qualifying draw comes out tomorrow.

United Cup Final:

USA/ITA
MIP-Pegula

Italy pulls off the so called upset to reach the final. USA may have made a tactical error in playing Pegula/Fritz in doubles with the tie already won. With no day off, and the only day in which all 5 matches will be played, will the US be burned out? Pegula is the key to this tie, as both her and Trevisan both back up some of the biggest wins of their careers.

Musetti is 2-0 vs Tiafoe, so Italy has a fighting chance.

Fritz/Berrettini is a tossup.

Keys is the favorite over Bronzetti.

Pick- USA, though if Pegula loses that first match, US could get swept.

Sat Jan 07, 11:29:00 AM EST  

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