Friday, September 01, 2023

US.5- Please Iga Don't Hurt 'Em


On Day 5, Iga Swiatek played like she had a book club meeting to get to. The collective field gulped.



Kaja Juvan came into the day knowing that even if she lost her 3rd Round match on Friday to Swiatek, she'd still have a good friend in this world. The two were the Youth Olympics doubles Gold medalists back in 2018, and had even faced off in a slam before in the opening round of the Pole's maiden slam title defense attempt in Paris in 2021. Iga won that one 6-0/7-5.

Perhaps the Slovenian had reason to dream, coming off her fifth career slam 1st Round upset of a seeded player (#29 Cocciaretto) and a follow-up over Lauren Davis (complete with "losing her lunch" during a changeover at a key moment in the 3rd set), but she'd yet to reach the Round of 16 at a slam. And thinking that her first such run would include an upset of the defending champion, friend or foe, was always likely a bridge a bit too far.

But, still... she surely didn't expect this.

Quite frankly, if Juvan thought she had a real chance today, or if she felt she had very *little* chance -- which maybe was the case -- it would have been difficult to tell the difference. Iga was in "frontrunner mode" from the start, and that's when all the "baked goods" references get pulled out of storage and readied to place in the window display.

Swiatek grabbed the early break lead in game 2 and never looked back. She held for 3-0, having won 12 of 16 points to start the match. She won the set at love, claiming 24 of 32 points (75%), committing one UE and never facing a BP.



In their meeting two years ago, Juvan followed up a love 1st set loss by pushing Swiatek in the 2nd. That didn't happen this time. Oh, Juvan won a game. "A* game, after having fallen behind 4-0. But, overall, the stats were even *more* against her in the 2nd than they had been in the 1st. Swiatek won 26 of 33 points (79%), still didn't face a BP and saw Juvan hit no -- yes, *zero* -- winners in the set. Swiatek's 6-0/6-1 win in forty nine minutes included a 21/5 winners/UE ratio for the Pole, and a 2/12 one for Juvan. Ouch.



Such an ending to her U.S. Open run, though, shouldn't obscure the summer that Juvan has had. Still grieving the loss of her father, she qualified for both Wimbledon and the Open, downed another seed, and has gone 15-4 since mid-June. She's on the cusp of returning to the Top 100 (live #104).

But the story here, of course, is Swiatek. 23-3 since Aryna Sabalenka, seemingly on the verge of hunting her down atop the WTA rankings, lost in the Roland Garros semis, Iga is now 30-6 on hard court in '23, and is 40-6 in North America the last two years. Having successfully defended her RG title this year, she's four wins away from doing the same in New York.

Of course, at this stage a year ago -- with wins over Paolini, Stephens and Davis -- Swiatek had allowed 15 games (she's lost 9 in '23), and it wasn't until the next round that things got more complicated as she had to problem-solve and battle her way to perhaps the most impressive of her four major title runs. She went three sets vs. Jule Niemeier in the Round of 16, edged out Jessie Pegula in a 2nd set TB to win in straights in the QF (naturally, the QF), and defeated Sabalenka in three to reach the final, where she again won a 2nd set TB (over Ons Jabeur) to avoid a three-setter.

Up next? Alona Ostapenko. To date, the Latvian has never *lost* to Swiatek, winning all three of their pro match-ups (one on grass, but two on hard courts in 2021-22).

It's safe to say that this U.S. Open truly *begins* for Swiatek on Sunday.




=DAY 5 NOTES=
...wouldn't you know it that the two biggest comeback stories in the women's singles draw would attract each other like magnets, preventing *both* from reaching the second week at Flushing Meadows.

The tasty 3rd Rounder -- aka "The Comback Bowl" on this opening college football weekend -- between #623-ranked wild card Caroline Wozniacki (a two-time Open finalist, former #1 and AO champ) and #433 Jennifer Brady ('20 semifinalist, and '21 AO runner-up) was just the 15th combined match this season (Brady's 10th, Wozniacki's 6th) from the two.

Injuries kept Brady out for nearly two years, while Wozniacki was out for three and a half after retiring and having two children. Coming into New York, Brady had posted the most impressive results, including wins over Anhelina Kalinina and Alona Ostapenko, and a three-set tussle with Elena Rybakina this summer. Meanwhile, the Dane had played just three matches, losses to Varvara Gracheva and Marketa Vondrousova (but w/ a 7-5 2nd vs. the Wimbledon champ) and a win over Kimberly Birrell.

But while Brady's comeback includes the component of her having to prevail over her own body, that was never really in the conversation when Wozniacki announced her return this summer. Fitness and stamina were never an issue, and was often her greatest advantange, during her first career, and after spending the last year doing TV commentary you knew she wouldn't venture back unless she was *certain* she was prepared for the physical part of the game.

Brady posted earlier Open wins over Birrell and AO semifinalist Magda Linette, while Wozniacki downed a qualifier before taking a *huge* step with her victory #11 Petra Kvitova, where she combined her consistent strokes, fitness and a dash of aggression to raise more than a few eyebrows. And if anyone didn't already know that she was more than physically ready after having two kids, Caro sported a skin-tight blue body suit to remind everyone of the work she'd put in.

Brady seemed well-equipped to win this match, as she took advantage of a few more errors than anticipated from Wozniacki (who was moving forward quite a bit), pulling away late in the 1st and then serving up 6-4/2-0, 40/15. But that was when the Dane tightened up her game, while Brady began to show signs of being winded. Surely that caught Wozniacki's eagle eye, too.

A DF and UE from Brady opened the door, and Wozniacki shouldered her way through. After firing a forehand winner to get the break of serve, Wozniacki spent the rest of the match playing to what was her longtime career edge. Her consistency wore down the waning Brady, while Wozniacki (an *actual* marathoner, remember) seemed to barely be breaking a sweat. Brady's 40/15 lead in game 5 nearly went away, as well, but she recovered from deuce and held for 3-2. But two games later Wozniacki got the break to take a 4-3 lead.

She took the set 6-3, then grabbed a quick 3-0 lead in the 3rd, running off with a 4-6/6-3/6-1 victory, keeping her game in order down the stretch without needing to take too many chances.



Kvitova said after *her* loss that it seemed as if Wozniacki "had never left," but *this* win -- and how it played out -- might say even more about what the Dane is capable of in this second go-around.

She could face Coco Gauff next. Could the *entire* lead story of this Open change this weekend?



...one first-time slam Round of 16 run was officially christened on Day 5, as Wang Xinyu (in her 10th MD) defeated Anna Karolina Schmiedlova to reach the 4th Round for the first time.



...in a very intriguing Czech BJK Cup squad doubles practice that was *actually* a 2nd Round match at the U.S. Open, Barbora Strycova (w/ fellow Czech Marketa Vondrousova) continued her career, but did so at the expence of her countrywomen Barbora Krejcikova & Katerina Siniakova, the #1 seeds and defending champs, winning 6-2/6-3.

Of course, this doesn't come as a *huge* surprise, as Krejickova and Siniakova -- as a team, and often in singles -- have mostly been shadows of themselves for months. With seven slam titles (including a Career Slam), a WTAF win *and* Olympic Gold, they're legimately Hall of Fame worthy, but something has been very wrong. If it's injuries, that's one thing... if it's something more personal (w/ one or both), you have to wonder if the world's top team might take a break from each other the rest of this season (at least).

After winning the Australian Open, their fourth consecutive title at the last four majors they'd played (DNP '22 RG), they won just one match in slam play the rest of '23.

Meanwhile, in another doubles match-up, we got an answer to the age-old question regarding what happens when Marta Kostyuk plays a match against a doubles duo that is only half-Russian.

Well, she and Gabriela Ruse won out over Dasha Saville and Irina Khromacheva today, and the answer (of which there were various options, including no handshakes for either) was that you shake one opponent's hand (the *former* Russian) but ignore the other one (the *current* one).

I wonder if they included *that* detail in a pre-match public service announcement to the crowd about such things?



...in the night session, "The Coco Project" gets another primetime showing on Ashe vs. Elise Mertens, while Elena Rybakina (after seeing her 2nd Round night match cancelled when Ajla Tomljanovic withdrew) faces Sorana Cirstea on Armstrong.




*WOMEN'S SINGLES ROUND OF 16*
#1 Iga Swiatek/POL vs. #20 Alona Ostapenko/LAT
(WC) Caroline Wozniacki/DEN vs. #6 Coco Gauff/USA
#30 Sorana Cirstea/ROU vs. #15 Belinda Bencic/SUI
#10 Karolina Muchova/CZE vs. Wang Xinyu/CHN
x vs. x
x vs. x
x vs. x
x vs. x




...JABEUR NOVELLA UPDATE... ON DAY 5:

It's not quite clear just yet what Ons Jabeur is constructing at this U.S. Open, but it's happening on its own little island.

After struggling through illness to get out of the 1st Round, she was at it again on Night 4 against Linda Noskova. Still ill, after losing a 4-1 lead in the 1st set, she rallied from 5-3 back in the TB against the Czech teen, taking it 9-7 and winning (as she did in the 1st Rd.) what was a super important opening stanza, as she was blitzed and again looked like she could on her way out after dropping a 6-1 2nd.

Noskova took a break lead at 3-2 in the 3rd, and that led Jabeur to flip the switch and lift her game just when she needed to do it. The Crusher couldn't follow her. Jabeur swept the last four games, winning 12 of 14 points to lead 5-3. There was another mini-struggle to close things out, but she finally did in on MP #4 to win 7-6(7)/4-6/6-3.



What will happen next? Will Jabeur finally hit a wall and an opponent will take advantage of her condition before she can fight her way through it, or will the day off allow her to get to the "other side" of her illness and ride the little wave of somewhat "first week Serena-esque," against the odds, warrior momentum she's seemingly created for herself?


...IT'S "HUMOROUS" HOW... ON DAY 5:

Lindsay Davenport has reverted at least partly back to her former self now that Wozniacki is an active player again. In Caro 1.0, Davenport often harped over and over again how horrific (my word, but...) it was that the Dane was holding the #1 ranking for so long without having won a major (though Davenport herself had finished multiple seasons at #1 in years in which she didn't win one). Eventually, she did, of course.

As broadcast partners on several occasions over the past year, it was if Davenport's old criticisms of Wozniacki never existed, as she was often complimentary of the Dane's career and there was something of a "sisters in arms" thing as former #1's, slam winners and mothers.

Well, now with Wozniacki is back on the court, Davenport was back calling one of her matches today, possibly for the first time in years. Right on cue, she started sifting through the old stats and pulled out one that allowed her to be shocked (my word, but...) that while Wozniacki had three slam finals (winning one) during her career, she had only reached the QF stage ten times at majors. She said that you'd expect a world #1 to have so many more, as most do. Mary Carillo noted, "she loved the hard courts" (where 8 of those 10 QF+ came), to which Davenport made another point about how "interesting" (my word, by... wink, wink) it was.

Just a (clears throat) Day 5 observation.

Some notes on a few former recent #1's from the same general era as Wozniacki: Kerber (11 QF+), Pliskova (11), Muguruza (8). Non-#1 who was close to #1: Kvitova (13, but w/o a 3.5 year break).





















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*2023 FIRST-TIME SLAM ROUND OF 16 (so far)*
2023 AO - Linda Fruhvirtova, CZE (2nd career MD)
2023 AO - Magda Linette, POL (30th)
2023 AO - Zhu Lin, CHN (15th)
2023 RG - Elina Avanesyan, RUS (2nd)
2023 RG - Beatriz Haddad Maia, BRA (12th)
2023 RG - Bernarda Pera, USA (21st)
2023 RG - Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, SVK (33rd)
2023 RG - Sara Sorribes Tormo, ESP (22nd)
2023 WI - Ekaterina Alexandrova, RUS (26th)
2023 WI - Mirra Andreeva, RUS (2nd)
2023 US - Wang Xinyu, CHN (10th)

*BEST 2023 SLAM RESULTS*
[w/ protected ranking]
RG QF - Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, RUS
RG QF - Elina Svitolina, UKR
RG 4th Rd. - Sara Sorribes Tormo, ESP
AO 3rd Rd. - Laura Siegemund, GER
US 3rd Rd. - Jennifer Brady USA
AO 2nd Rd. - Marketa Vondrousova, CZE
AO 2nd Rd. - Karolina Muchova, CZE
AO 2nd Rd. - Nadia Podoroska, ARG
WI 2nd Rd. - Jaqueline Cristian, ROU
WI 2nd Rd. - Sara Sorribes Tormo, ESP
WI 2nd Rd. - Barbora Strycova, CZE
US 2nd Rd. - Dasha Saville, AUS
US 2nd Rd. - Patricia Maria Tig, ROU

*RECENT U.S. OPEN "COMEBACK" WINNERS*
2009 Kim Clijsters, BEL
2010 Francesca Schiavone, ITA
2011 Liezel Huber/Lisa Raymond, USA/USA
2012 Ana Ivanovic, SRB
2013 Flavia Pennetta, ITA
2014 Caroline Wozniacki, DEN
2015 Victoria Azarenka, BLR
2016 Caroline Wozniacki, DEN
2017 Petra Kvitova, CZE
2018 Bethanie Mattek-Sands, USA
2019 Taylor Townsend, USA
2020 Tsvetana Pironkova, BUL
2021 U.S. Open fans
2022 Caroline Garcia, FRA
2023 Caroline Wozniacki, DEN






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TOP QUALIFIER: #15 Wang Yafan/CHN
TOP EARLY-ROUND (1r-2r): #6 Coco Gauff/USA
TOP MIDDLE-ROUND (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-ROUND (SF-F): xx
TOP QUALIFYING MATCH: Q2 - Elsa Jacquemot/FRA def. #2 Diana Shnaider/RUS 6-7(5)/7-5/6-3 - down 7-6/5-3, saved 7 MP in 2nd set (trailed 5-4, 40/love)
TOP EARLY-RD. MATCH (1r-2r): 1st Rd. - #32 Elise Mertens/BEL def. Mirjam Bjorklund/SWE 3-6/6-3/7-6(10-3) - down 3 MP at 4-5, love/40 in 3rd, won 4 con. pts to hold; wins TB 10-3
TOP MIDDLE-RD. MATCH (3r-QF): xx
TOP LATE-RD. MATCH (SF-F): xx
=============================
FIRST VICTORY: #10 Karolina Muchova/CZE (def. WC Hunter)
FIRST SEED OUT: #8 Maria Sakkari/GRE (1r- lost to Masarova/ESP)
FIRST CAREER SLAM MD WINS: Eva Lys/GER, Lily Miyazaki/GBR
PROTECTED RANKING MD WINS: Jennifer Brady/USA (3rd Rd.); Dasha Saville/AUS (2nd Rd.), Patricia Maria Tig/ROU (2nd Rd.)
LUCKY LOSER MD WINS: Yanina Wickmayer/BEL (2nd Rd.)
UPSET QUEENS: United States
REVELATION LADIES: China
NATION OF POOR SOULS: France (1-6 in 1st; 9 of FRA Top 10 out Q/1r)
CRASH & BURN: #8 Maria Sakkari/GRE (3 consecutive slam 1st Rd. losses)
ZOMBIE QUEEN OF NEW YORK: #32 Elise Mertens/BEL (5 MP saved 1r/2r; 4-5, love/40 in 3rd vs. Bjorklund/SWE 1r; 2 MP 2nd set TB vs. Collins/USA 2r)
IT ("??"): x
Ms.OPPORTUNITY: x
LAST QUALIFIER STANDING: In 3r: Juvan/SLO(L), Minnen/BEL
LAST WILD CARD STANDING: Caroline Wozniacki/DEN (in 4r)
LAST BANNERETTE STANDING: In 3r: Brady(L), Gauff(W), Keys, Pegula, Pera(L), Stearns, Townsend(L)
COMEBACK: Caroline Wozniacki/DEN
VETERAN PLAYER (KIMIKO CUP): Nominees: Cirstea, Strycova
DOUBLES STAR: x
BIG APPLE BANNERETTE BREAKTHROUGH: Nominees: Stearns, (jr.)
BROADWAY-BOUND: Nominees: "Project Coco," "Comeback Caro"
LADY OF THE EVENING: Nominees: Gauff, Wozniacki
JUNIOR BREAKOUT: x







All for Day 5. More tomorrow.

posted by Todd.Spiker @ 7:54 PM 

3 Comments:

Blogger khan35 said...

Rybakina lost. She remains underachiever at US Open. Good news for Bencic as she will now face Cirstea instead of Rybakina in the 4th round.

Sabalenka is yet to play on Arthur Ashe Stadium. They scheduled her on Louis Armstrong for 3rd time in a row.

Sat Sep 02, 04:09:00 AM EDT  
Blogger colt13 said...

Hope Swiatek/Ostapenko is as good at it should be.

Took a look at Fiona Crawley. Kind of a cross between Bellis and Bouzkova.

10 women are still alive in doubles and mixed, including Hsieh, who is having a sneaky good season.

I don't know if Halep is innocent or guilty, but this is a mess. If she loses, is the whole thing time served? If she wins? Lawsuit?

Stat of the Day- 6- The number of finals reached by Italian women in 2023.

The dark days are over!

I'm kidding, Italy did not have a streak like Great Britain once had, going 20+ years without a singles title, but they were lacking depth.

Ovbiously good during the Schiavone, Errani, Pennetta, Vinci era, after Schiavone's Rabat final in 2017, Giorgi was the only woman from Italy to reach a final for the next 4 1/2 years.

Jasmine Paolini(who has reached finals in 3 consecutive years) ended that streak at Portoroz in 2021.

This year, the new bunch has run roughshod over the 250 level, with all 6 finals there.

Winners:
Cocciaretto- Lausanne
Bronzetti- Rabat
Giorgi- Merida

Runner Up:
Cocciaretto- Hobart
Bronzetti- Bad Homburg
Paolini- Palermo

Italy was United Cup RU.

Since 2000:Most Finals Italy:

10- 2009
9 - 2006
9 - 2012
9 - 2014
9 - 2015

Most Titles:

6- 2012
4- 2008
4- 2009
4- 2011
4- 2013

2023 has 3 titles with incomplete season; that ties 5 other seasons.

They might be a Billie Jean King darkhorse.

Sat Sep 02, 07:39:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Todd.Spiker said...

K-

Between the illness that took her out of RG, then the ridiculousness of Montreal (and w/ her shoulder taped for weeks), it's been a trying few months for Rybakina. NYC, as with Petra, never has really felt like a good fit w/ her. :/


C-

I don't know how I didn't see anything about the latest Halep delay the other day, though I guess I figured they'd try to slip it in middle of the slam chaos.

Usually these things *are* "time-served" things in the end, but going more than a year without any sort of judgment to react to is absurd. But not surprising.

Yeah, the re-rise of the post-Quartet Italians has been a real under-the-radar story in '23. It'll be the post-season MVP list, for sure.

Sat Sep 02, 12:07:00 PM EDT  

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